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Consumer inflation at 8-year high may ‘trigger’ quicker rate hikes

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Sounding a red alert on India’s CPI inflation at an 8-year high print of 7.79% YoY in April, Acuite Ratings has said it may trigger quicker rate hikes.

“If inflation pressures continue to mount there is a likelihood of additional hikes thereby taking the rate to its pre- pandemic level of 5.15 per cent or even higher in FY23. Additionally, we also expect CRR to be hiked by another 50 bps by H1FY23,” Acuite Ratings said.

Given the tone of urgency in RBI’s statement to support the altered inflation-growth dynamics, “we now revise our call and expect the RBI to hike repo rate by an additional 60 bps in the rest of FY23”.

The increasing price pressures was in motion even before the onslaught of the geopolitical conflicts. However, lingering war between Russia and Ukraine, unprecedented level of sanctions, elevated oil and commodity prices along with prolonged supply chain disruptions have escalated the inflationary concerns both in the global as well as domestic economies, it said.

Globally most economies have shifted from an extended disinflationary phase to tackling strong inflationary concerns, causing key central banks monetary policy rhetoric to switch to extreme hawkishness and policy tightening in 2022 from pandemic-era accommodative policies.

“From domestic standpoint, for FY23, inflation drivers are likely to face considerable pressure from persistent hardening of input prices. The heightened pressure from commodity prices is also coinciding with unlocking of the economy post Omicron wave while vaccination coverage continues to gain traction. While we stick to our estimate of 5.9 per cent for FY23 CPI inflation, we now believe that there is a buildup of upside risks,” Acuite Ratings said.

“Going forward, we expect the core inflation to remain sticky at elevated levels given upward revision of petrol and diesel prices by the OMCs in order to reduce the under-recoveries being accumulated by them at the current crude prices of USD 100 plus per barrel.”

Acuite Ratings said the government, however, may also consider a partial absorption of the increased prices through a further excise duty cut on petrol and diesel which could provide marginal comfort from inflation perspective. While the direct pass-through of elevated commodity prices can be seen through increasing prices of petrol and diesel and non-subsidized LPG, indirect pass through of unprecedented input cost pressures by manufacturers is visible through rising prices of certain personal care products within FMCG sector which will get reflected in the core CPI print in the coming months.

After moderating close to RBI’s inflation target rate in September-21, headline CPI inflation has been rising incessantly with the print breaching the upper tolerance threshold in Q4 FY22, averaging at 6.34 per cent. It has started to gather steam in April-22 gaining strength from the geo-political crisis and rising to an eight year high of 7.79 per cent YoY from 6.95 per cent YoY in March-22.

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Nifty, Sensex post modest weekly gains as crude oil prices dip

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Mumbai, June 27: The Indian equity benchmarks posted a third consecutive week of gains, over sharp correction in crude oil prices to pre‑Iran war levels and improved traffic at the Strait of Hormuz.

Nifty added 0.18 per cent during the week and edged up 0.14 per cent on the last trading day to reach 24,056. At close, Sensex was up 109 points or 0.14 per cent at 77,100. It added 0.39 per cent during the week.

The domestic markets navigated a week of mixed signals with notable resilience, even as broader indices, especially mid-caps, faced modest selling pressure.

Easing geopolitical risks amid progressing US–Iran talks, and optimism around an India–US trade deal, helped fuel domestic investor sentiment.

However, expectations of rising inflationary pressure and a potential dampening in rural demand began to surface, driven by concerns over uneven monsoon distribution, an analyst said.

Sustained softness in crude prices remains a clear macro positive in the near term along with improving inflation, fiscal, and current account dynamics collectively providing the RBI with greater policy flexibility.

On the sectoral front, pharma and healthcare stocks outperformed, while private banks advanced following the RBI’s clarity on the FCNR(B) deposit swap scheme.

Metals were major loser due to falling commodity prices, while consumer durables lagged amid demand concerns.

Broad market indices showed divergence with benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap100 lost 1.15 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 edged up just 0.03 per cent during the week.

Immediate resistance levels for Nifty are placed at 24,400 and 24,500, and support is seen at 23,900 and 23,800.

Immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,500–57,400 zone, while resistance is seen at 58,900 and 59,000.

As corporate earnings reports are expected in the coming weeks, management commentary on demand visibility, margins, and order flows will serve as key indicators for market direction.

“A prudent yet optimistic stance is warranted, with a focus on selectively building positions in fundamentally strong companies that have seen recent corrections without any meaningful deterioration in their underlying outlook,” a market participant said.

Investors remain keen on US PCE data that will shape global, along with non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures, which will influence Fed rate expectations and overall risk appetite.

Domestically, industrial production data and June PMI readings will provide early signals ahead of Q1 earnings season, according to analysts.

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Crude oil prices fall up to 2 pc, head for steep weekly losses

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New Delhi, June 26: Global crude oil prices fell sharply on Friday and were on track to post steep weekly losses as easing supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz outweighed fresh geopolitical tensions following an attack on a cargo vessel near Oman.

International oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell $1.51 or 2 per cent, to $73.75 a barrel in early trade.

Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.50 or about 2 per cent to $70.42 a barrel.

Both benchmark contracts had gained more than 2 per cent in the previous session after a cargo vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman, prompting the United Nations’ shipping agency to suspend its voluntary evacuation programme.

According to media reports, two US officials said Iran had fired on the cargo vessel as it attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities, however, said the security of ships sailing outside designated Hormuz routes could not be guaranteed.

Despite the latest security concerns, Brent and WTI were both headed for weekly losses of nearly 7 per cent as fears of supply disruptions eased following an improvement in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude shipments through the strategic waterway rose this week to their highest level since the US-Israel conflict with Iran began in February, after a ceasefire helped reopen the route. However, overall vessel traffic remained well below the pre-conflict average of around 125 ships per day.

The Indian basket of crude oil — a weighted average of Brent Dated, Oman and Dubai crude grades imported by domestic refiners — averaged $86.31 per barrel in June so far, after surging during the West Asia conflict. The basket had averaged $106.23 per barrel in May and $114.48 per barrel in April.

Global benchmark Brent crude, which had touched around $120 per barrel at the peak of the conflict, is now hovering near $74 per barrel.

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Stock markets remain closed on account of Muharram

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Mumbai, June 26: Indian stock exchanges — the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the BSE — remained closed on Friday on account of Muharram, with trading suspended across all equity market segments, including equity derivatives, currency derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLB).

Meanwhile, in the commodity segment, the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained closed during the morning session from 9 am to 5 pm.

Trading on the commodity exchange will resume in the evening session from 5 pm.

In addition, the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) — which primarily deals in agricultural commodities — remained closed for the entire day.

Following Friday’s Muharram holiday, the stock market will remain open for nearly three months before the next scheduled holiday on September 14 for Ganesh Chaturthi.

Thereafter, the bourses will remain closed on October 2 (Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti), October 20 (Dussehra), November 10 (Diwali-Balipratipada), November 24 (Prakash Gurpurb Sri Guru Nanak Dev) and December 25 (Christmas).

In the last session, the equity benchmarks ended their two-session winning streak on a positive note despite paring most of their intraday gains due to profit booking in IT and metal stocks.

Sensex settled over 100 points or 0.14 per cent higher at 77,100.47 after touching an intraday high of 77,803.18.

Similarly, Nifty ended higher, with an increase of 34.35 points or 0.14 per cent at 24,056.

Among Nifty constituents, Hindalco Industries, Power Grid, Bharti Airtel, ONGC, Infosys, NTPC, BEL, HCL Tech, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, Trent, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel and Titan were top losers.

Moreover, the broader markets underperformed, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices declining 0.5 per cent each.

As the holiday falls on a Friday, market participants will enjoy a three-day weekend, with trading set to resume on Monday, June 29.

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