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Centre-states may discuss early inclusion of natural gas into GST fold

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With GST revenue collections making a rebound post the disruptions caused by the second wave of Covid pandemic, the Centre is likely to initiate dialogue with states for inclusion of petroleum products under the new indirect tax fold.

Sources privy to the development said that based on the Petroleum Ministry’s suggestion, the Centre may take up with GST Council the issue of bringing natural gas under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime to begin with before the entire oil and gas sector is brought under it.

The 45th GST Council meeting is scheduled on September 17, 2021 at Lucknow. Though the council members will discuss several pending issues such as states compensation, revision of GST rates on Covid essentials, inverted duty structure, the Centre is also likely to take up the case for early inclusion of gas into the new taxation fold.

With revenue position remaining strained due to Covid-19 outbreak, states have been reluctant to consider bringing high revenue generating petroleum products under GST fold. But with GST collections improving substantially this year remaining above the Rs 1 lakh crore psychological-mark in most months of FY22, the Centre feels it is the right time to push for tax reforms in the oil and gas sector as well with the inclusion of gas helping in plan to develop a gas-based economy in the country.

Inclusion of gas would not pose a challenge for the GST Council as it is largely an industrial product where a switchover to the new taxation would not be difficult. The revenue implication for the states is also low in the case of this switchover.

“States are in a fairly better position now with GST revenue hitting over Rs 1 lakh crore-mark for the past few months and Centre has also improved their liquidity position through additional borrowing schemes. This should make phased inclusion of petroleum products under GST easier for the council,” said an official source in the oil ministry.

GST levy on natural gas would help state-run oil companies such as ONGC, IOCL, BPCL and HPCL to save tax burden to the tune of Rs 25,000 crore as they would get credit on taxes paid for inputs and services. Tax credits are not transferable between the two different taxation systems.

The Steering Committee for Advancing Local Value-Add and Exports (SCALE) chaired by Mahindra & Mahindra MD & CEO Pawan Goenka in its report to the commerce ministry has also batted for provision of input tax credit of natural gas to make its prices more competitive. This could happen once it is included in GST.

Sources said Council could consider a three-layered GST structure for gas where residential piped natural gas (PNG) is taxed at a lower rate of 5 per cent, commercial piped natural gas could be taxed at a median rate of 18 per cent, and car fuel CNG could be taxed at a maximum rate of 28 per cent. However, such a proposal has not yet been drafted and it could be put on table after consensus is arrived at inclusion of gas under GST.

Gas sales, including CNG and piped gas supplies, attract VAT ranging from 5-12 per cent.

As part of its efforts to build consensus with the states on GST launch, the government had decided to exclude five petroleum products — crude oil, petrol, diesel, ATF and natural gas — from the list of items placed under GST, but included products such as cooking gas, kerosene and naphtha in the new regime.

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Gold holds steady amid easing US-Iran tensions; silver gains on MCX

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Mumbai, Gold prices remained largely steady on Wednesday as improving prospects of easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran kept investor sentiment in check.

During early trade, MCX gold May futures were marginally higher by 0.02 per cent at Rs 1,53,305 per 10 grams.

Commenting on gold technical outlook, experts said that a sustained move above Rs 1,55,000 could revive momentum toward Rs 1,57,000-Rs 1,58,000.

“On the downside, a break below Rs 1,54,000 may lead to a corrective move toward Rs 1,52,000 and further to Rs 1,50,000,” an analyst stated.

Silver prices, however, saw stronger buying interest, with MCX silver May futures rising 0.83 per cent to Rs 2,54,842 per kg.

“Resistance is placed at Rs 2,60,000–Rs 2,63,000, with further upside toward Rs 2,68,000–Rs 2,70,000,” a market expert said.

“A sustained move above these levels could strengthen momentum and support further gains. On the downside, a break below Rs 2,48,000 may lead to a corrective move toward the Rs 2,44,000–Rs 2,40,000 range,” as per an analyst.

In the previous session, gold had ended flat at Rs 1,53,216 per 10 grams, while silver futures slipped 0.1 per cent to Rs 2,25,499 per kg.

Globally, the yellow metal held on to its recent gains amid optimism that Washington and Tehran could move towards a negotiated settlement to the conflict that began on February 28.

The easing of tensions has reduced fears of a sharp energy-supply shock, which had earlier raised concerns about inflationary pressures.

Spot gold hovered near $4,850 an ounce after rising as much as 0.6 per cent during the session. The metal had surged over 2 per cent in the previous trading session on expectations that the US and Iran may soon hold a second round of ceasefire talks.

US President Donald Trump has indicated that negotiations could resume “over the next two days,” further boosting hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.

Despite the recent stability, gold has faced pressure in recent weeks, falling nearly 8 per cent since the conflict began.

Early in the crisis, a liquidity squeeze prompted investors to offload bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.

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Indian stock market in positive territory, overall sentiment remains balanced

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Mumbai, The Indian stock markets witnessed a strong rebound last week after six consecutive weeks of decline, supported by favourable global cues, according to analysts.

Sentiment remained buoyant amid optimism surrounding a temporary US–Iran ceasefire, although lingering geopolitical uncertainties capped the pace of gains as the week progressed.

“The rally was further aided by a stable domestic macro backdrop, with broader markets outperforming the benchmarks. Despite elevated volatility marked by sharp mid-week gains and subsequent profit booking, indices trended higher,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

The Nifty and Sensex gained around 6 per cent to close near the week’s highs at 24,050.60 and 77,550.25, respectively.

According to analysts, global developments remained a key influence, with the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran improving risk appetite, though uncertainty around its sustainability persisted.

Meanwhile, a sharp decline in crude oil prices below the $100 mark eased domestic concerns and triggered a strong rebound across markets.

On the domestic front, the RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and retained a neutral stance, highlighting the need to balance inflation risks with growth support.

The central bank also revised FY26 GDP growth upward to 7.6 per cent while projecting FY27 growth at 6.9 per cent.

Inflation projections were raised to 4.6 per cent for FY27, reflecting risks from elevated energy prices and potential weather-related disruptions.

Market watchers said that overall sentiment remains balanced but cautious, shaped by global cues, crude oil price movements and ongoing foreign investor activity.

Downside appears to be relatively contained, but upside momentum remains constrained, pointing to a recovery that is still tentative and low in conviction, they added.

Economic indicators showed signs of moderation, with the Services PMI easing to 57.5 and the Composite PMI to 57.0 in March.

However, global agencies remained constructive, with the World Bank raising India’s growth outlook, supported by strong domestic demand and structural factors, said analysts.

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Crude oil prices tank up to 20 pc over Iran ceasefire announcement

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New Delhi, April 8: Global crude oil prices on Wednesday plunged sharply up to 20 per cent, after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran that includes a pledge to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway at the heart of the world’s most acute energy crisis in decades.

The international benchmark Brent crude futures shed nearly 16 per cent or $17.39 to $91.88, hitting an intraday low, while US WTI crude declined almost 20 per cent or $21.90 to $91.05.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows, has been at the centre of the conflict. Iran had restricted passage for several weeks, contributing to rising prices and supply concerns. Markets had been on edge ahead of Trump’s deadline for Iran to reach a deal, with traders fearing a major escalation could disrupt shipments across the Gulf and send prices sharply higher.

Oil prices had surged in recent weeks amid fears that the strait could be closed or severely restricted. The waterway handles shipments critical to global supply chains, including crude oil and liquefied natural gas.

The US-Israel-Iran conflict has been paused for two weeks after approximately 40 days of hostilities that began in February.

President Trump’s shift in stance came just ahead of his stated deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk extensive strikes on its civilian infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Iran indicated it would halt its military operations provided attacks against it ceased simultaneously. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a formal statement, confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be ensured for two weeks in coordination with Iranian armed forces.

The conflict had triggered an unprecedented surge in oil prices in March, with gains exceeding 60 per cent during the period.

Additionally, Indian equity benchmarks also rallied sharply on the development, trading more than 3 per cent higher in early trade. The Sensex jumped nearly 4 per cent, while the Nifty surged 3.5 per cent to their respective intraday highs.

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