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BofA turns bullish on Indian equities, sees Nifty at 26,200 by December 2026

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Mumbai, Sep 14: The Nifty could climb to 26,200 by December 2026, implying an upside of around 12 per cent from current levels, as Bank of America (BofA) Securities has turned constructive on Indian equities after maintaining a cautious stance for nearly two years.

In its latest strategy report, BofA said it had remained cautious on Indian stocks since August 2024 and had identified eight key risks that could keep the market volatile. However, five of those risks have either already played out or have been largely priced into the market, prompting the brokerage to adopt a more positive stance.

BofA said the three remaining risks could create around 7 per cent downside for the Nifty 50 in its bear-case scenario. In its base case, however, the brokerage sees the index reaching 26,200 by December 2026.

According to BofA, the remaining risks are expected to peak by October 2026, potentially creating room for a sustained market recovery from November.

One of the key risks identified earlier was a sharp rise in crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, compared with BofA’s fourth-quarter 2026 estimate of $81 a barrel. The brokerage noted that crude prices have reversed from the $100-a-barrel level seven times over the past seven months.

The rupee was another concern, although BofA said recent inflows of around $136 billion should provide support to the currency and maintained an appreciation bias.

Weak monsoon conditions were also among the risks, with the current rainfall deficit at 13 per cent, close to the 15 per cent worst-case scenario previously projected by the brokerage.

BofA also expects limited further acceleration in aluminium and copper prices. On monetary policy, its economist expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points by December 2026, compared with around 45 basis points currently priced by swap markets.

The three remaining risks include a possible surge in primary market issuances, with around $30 billion expected between September and December and issuance activity likely to peak in October. Another risk is the possibility of 75 basis points of Federal Reserve rate hikes, compared with around 35 basis points currently priced by markets. Over the longer term, BofA also flagged the potential impact of artificial intelligence-led disruption on employment in India.

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Sensex, Nifty open lower as Asian markets tumble, crude oil climbs

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Indian equity benchmarks opened lower on Thursday tracking weak Asian markets and concerns over elevated crude oil prices and high US bond yields.

Sensex opened 366.36 points or 0.50 per cent lower at 73,343.33, while Nifty began the trading session at 22,687.75, declining 123.60 points or 0.54 per cent.

Sector-wise, most indices traded in the red with auto, metal and healthcare shares leading losses in early trade.

Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal and Nifty Healthcare declined up to 0.98 per cent. Meanwhile, Nifty Pharma also slipped 0.78 per cent.

Broader weakness was also visible across FMCG, realty, cement and financial stocks.

Analysts said the recent trend of large-cap stocks outperforming mid and small caps appears to be gathering momentum as valuation concerns emerge in the broader market.

“The broader market resilience in recent months has been more a function of liquidity than earnings. This has created a paradox of overvalued mid and small caps coexisting with attractively valued large-caps. This trend is now getting corrected and is likely to sustain,” they said.

The eperts also pointed to external headwinds, including rising crude prices and elevated US Treasury yields which are encouraging traders to build short positions despite continued institutional buying.

“Sectoral churn towards fairly valued large caps is the ideal investment strategy now. It may take time, but this strategy will certainly be rewarded,” they added.

Technical analysts said the recent sharp decline and the breach of the 22,700 level on the Nifty raised the risk of a deeper correction.

“Recovery hopes rest on the ability of 22,590 to hold, but a move back above 22,840 will be needed to confirm renewed upside strength,” according to them.

On Wednesday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers and purchased equities worth about Rs 1,022 crore. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also remained buyers with net purchases of around Rs 1,614 crore.

In Asian markets, major indices remained under pressure. Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s Kospi dropped up to 2 per cent in early trading.

Overnight, Wall Street ended higher led by technology shares. The Nasdaq advanced around 1 per cent after strong corporate earnings boosted sentiment around artificial intelligence-related stocks, while the S&P 500 gained 0.58 per cent.

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures rose more than 1 per cent to trade around $110 per barrel, adding to inflation concerns and weighing on investor sentiment.

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Sensex, Nifty surge up to 1 pc in early deals; IT shares lead gains

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Indian equity benchmarks traded higher in early trade on Wednesday with gains of nearly 1 per cent each tracking positive global cues and buying in IT stocks.

In morning trade, Sensex was trading 0.94 per cent or 695 points higher at 74,548.69, hitting an intraday high against previous close of 73,852.90.

Similarly, Nifty surged 0.86 per cent or almost 200 points to 23,086.95 from previous close of 22,888.95.

Earlier in the day the benchmarks opened higher, with the Sensex opening at 74,337.93, up 485.03 points or 0.66 per cent.

Nifty opened at 23,016.00, up 127.05 points or 0.56 per cent.

Sector-wise, Nifty IT, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Cement, Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom and Nifty Oil & Gas increased up to 1.97 per cent.

However, Nifty Media and Nifty Chemicals were trading in the red.

According to market experts, as Brent crude prices and US bond yields remained elevated, the market is likely to remain under pressure and the sell-on-rally construct will continue in the near-term.

However, improving earnings growth, fair valuations of large-caps and strong domestic liquidity will support the market on declines, they said.

IT and banking which have performed well in Q2 and are attractively valued, will see strong DII-led accumulation on corrections, the experts said.

Notably, the Q2 results season has started on a positive note and market action going forward will be more stock-specific and results-sensitive, experts noted.

In the last trading session on October 19, FIIs remained net sellers, offloading equities worth approximately Rs 1,148 crore, while DIIs continued to support the market with net purchases of around Rs 3,200 crore.

In addition, Asian shares traded higher following gains in US stock futures after upbeat earnings from major AI-linked companies renewed investor interest in technology shares.

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Tesla shareholders to vote on Musk board seat and $158 billion pay award on Dec 3

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Tesla has scheduled its annual shareholder meeting for December 3, where investors will vote on the re-election of Chief Executive Elon Musk and other directors, along with an advisory resolution on executive compensation and the appointment of the company’s auditor.

According to a proxy filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Tesla has nominated Musk, Chair Robyn Denholm and director JB Straubel for new three-year terms on the board.

Shareholders will also be asked to approve, on a non-binding basis, executive compensation for 2025 and ratify PricewaterhouseCoopers as Tesla’s independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31.

Moreover, the proxy statement disclosed executive compensation attributed to Musk for 2025 of about $158.36 billion, consisting entirely of stock-based awards.

The figure reflects the accounting value assigned to performance-linked equity grants and does not represent cash compensation received by the billionaire entrepreneur.

Tesla said the awards remain contingent on the achievement of specified market capitalisation and operational targets.

The company previously reported in May that Musk’s realised compensation for 2025 was zero with none of the 12 tranches tied to the incentive program having been earned.

The equity package comprises roughly 423.7 million restricted shares that vest only after predetermined milestones are met.

In addition, any earned shares are generally subject to a five-year holding requirement, with limited exceptions.

The annual meeting will be held at Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas facility in Austin at 3 pm. However, Central Time and will also be accessible online.

Additionally, the filing highlighted several board-level links between Tesla and SpaceX.

However, the proxy statement did not reference any potential merger involving Tesla and SpaceX.

Apart from that, Elon Musk-backed SpaceX is scheduled to announce its third-quarter results on Tuesday after its shares fell nearly 35 per cent from their post-listing high.

This will be the company’s second quarterly earnings report since going public in June, following a volatile stretch for the stock.

The stock has dropped around 35 per cent from the record high it hit soon after its debut.

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