Mumbai, Sep 14: The Nifty could climb to 26,200 by December 2026, implying an upside of around 12 per cent from current levels, as Bank of America (BofA) Securities has turned constructive on Indian equities after maintaining a cautious stance for nearly two years.

In its latest strategy report, BofA said it had remained cautious on Indian stocks since August 2024 and had identified eight key risks that could keep the market volatile. However, five of those risks have either already played out or have been largely priced into the market, prompting the brokerage to adopt a more positive stance.

BofA said the three remaining risks could create around 7 per cent downside for the Nifty 50 in its bear-case scenario. In its base case, however, the brokerage sees the index reaching 26,200 by December 2026.

According to BofA, the remaining risks are expected to peak by October 2026, potentially creating room for a sustained market recovery from November.

One of the key risks identified earlier was a sharp rise in crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, compared with BofA’s fourth-quarter 2026 estimate of $81 a barrel. The brokerage noted that crude prices have reversed from the $100-a-barrel level seven times over the past seven months.

The rupee was another concern, although BofA said recent inflows of around $136 billion should provide support to the currency and maintained an appreciation bias.

Weak monsoon conditions were also among the risks, with the current rainfall deficit at 13 per cent, close to the 15 per cent worst-case scenario previously projected by the brokerage.

BofA also expects limited further acceleration in aluminium and copper prices. On monetary policy, its economist expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points by December 2026, compared with around 45 basis points currently priced by swap markets.

The three remaining risks include a possible surge in primary market issuances, with around $30 billion expected between September and December and issuance activity likely to peak in October. Another risk is the possibility of 75 basis points of Federal Reserve rate hikes, compared with around 35 basis points currently priced by markets. Over the longer term, BofA also flagged the potential impact of artificial intelligence-led disruption on employment in India.

Mumbai, Sep 13: The Sensex is likely to consolidate between 74,000 and 75,200 in the near term, while the Nifty may face immediate resistance around 23,500 and could see further downside if it slips below last week’s low, analysts said on Sunday, as Indian equities enter a holiday-shortened week after five consecutive weeks of losses.

The Indian stock market will remain closed for trading on Monday, September 14, on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. Investors will return to the market on Tuesday after benchmark indices ended the previous week under pressure from elevated crude oil prices, rising global bond yields and concerns over persistent US inflation.

Looking ahead, analysts said the broader technical outlook for the Sensex remains sideways, with the index expected to consolidate in the 74,000–75,200 range in the near term. Holding the 74,000–74,160 support zone could keep the recovery attempt intact and allow the index to retest the 75,000–75,200 levels.

“A decisive breakout above the resistance zone would strengthen the outlook and open the door for further upside, while a break below 74,000 could bring renewed selling pressure. For now, the market remains cautious but shows signs of resilience after the sharp recovery from lower levels,” market experts said.

For the Nifty, analysts said a sustained move above 23,500 could signal a pullback towards the 23,650 level in the coming sessions. However, failure to reclaim 23,500 could keep the index in consolidation mode within the 23,230–23,500 range.

“Immediate bias in the index remains down and a follow-through weakness below last week’s low of 23,231 will open downside towards the short-term support placed around the June low of 23,070 levels in the coming week,” analysts said.

The Sensex declined 2.27 per cent over the week to close at 74,781.76, while the Nifty fell 2.09 per cent to settle at 23,398.10. The broader market also remained weak, with the Nifty Midcap index declining 1.40 per cent and the Smallcap index slipping 0.88 per cent.

On Friday, however, domestic equities recovered sharply from their intraday lows as crude oil prices eased following their recent rally. The moderation in oil prices triggered buying in oil-sensitive stocks, while the recent sell-off pushed benchmark indices into oversold territory, prompting value buying at lower levels.

The Nifty recovered 0.72 per cent from its intraday low before ending Friday 0.34 per cent lower at 23,398.10. The Sensex also staged a strong recovery from the day’s lows, although it finally closed 0.16 per cent down at around 74,780.

They added that the current downtrend would show signs of a pause only after the formation of a higher high and higher low on a sustained basis on the daily chart.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Sunday said the energy sector would play a key role in driving the state’s next phase of economic growth, with new solar, pumped-storage and battery projects expected to attract more than Rs 80,000 crore in investment and create nearly 40,000 jobs.

In a post on X, CM Sarma said the planned expansion of the state’s clean energy ecosystem would open up new employment and economic opportunities, particularly for Assam’s youth.

“The energy sector will be a key driver of Assam’s next phase of growth,” the Chief Minister said, highlighting the potential of renewable energy and energy-storage projects to transform the state’s investment landscape.

According to CM Sarma, the proposed projects span solar power generation, pumped-storage systems and battery projects, indicating a broader push towards building infrastructure capable of supporting Assam’s future energy requirements.

The investment potential of over Rs 80,000 crore could give a significant boost to the state’s industrial and infrastructure development, while the projected creation of nearly 40,000 jobs is expected to provide fresh opportunities for the local workforce.

The Chief Minister’s announcement comes as Assam seeks to accelerate industrialisation and attract large-scale investments across emerging sectors. The state government has increasingly focused on renewable energy and infrastructure as part of its broader strategy to create jobs and strengthen the economy.

Solar projects could help expand Assam’s renewable power generation capacity, while pumped-storage facilities can provide large-scale energy storage and improve the flexibility of the power grid. Battery projects, meanwhile, could support the growing demand for energy-storage solutions as renewable power generation expands.

CM Sarma said emerging energy opportunities would be particularly important for the state’s young population, signalling the government’s focus on linking investment with employment generation.

The proposed projects are also expected to strengthen Assam’s position as an emerging destination for clean-energy investments in the Northeast.

With more than Rs 80,000 crore of investment potential and nearly 40,000 jobs in the pipeline, the energy sector is set to become an important pillar of Assam’s economic expansion, the Chief Minister indicated.