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Bank of England warns of longest recession in 100 yrs

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The Bank of England has warned the UK risked being plunged into the longest recession in 100 years after it pushed up the cost of borrowing to 3 per cent in the biggest single interest rate rise since 1989.

A 0.75 per cent increase, the latest in a series of eight interest rate rises since last year, would not be enough to guarantee victory in the war against double-digit inflation, the Bank said, as it cautioned further action would be needed.

The UK economy faces a “very challenging outlook”, with a recession that began this summer now expected to last until the middle of 2024, the Guardian reported.

With the possibility of a general election being held in 2024, the Conservatives face campaigning to remain in government at the tail end of a prolonged slump, during which the Bank said it expected unemployment to rise from 3.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent.

However, there was some relief for mortgage holders as the central bank downplayed City expectations of a steep rise in the cost of borrowing to above 5 per cent, arguing that the prospect of a two-year recession meant it was likely to take a much less aggressive stance.

Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s Governor, said: “We can’t make promises about future interest rates, but based on where we stand today, we think the bank rate will have to go up by less than currently priced in financial markets.”

The last time UK rates rose by more than 0.5 per cent was in 1989, reports the Guardian.

John Major’s government was forced into a 2 per cent rise during the exchange rate mechanism crisis in 1992, though for less than 24 hours before it was scrapped.

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Q1 earnings, crude oil trends likely to drive Dalal Street next week

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Mumbai, July 12: Investors will closely track the ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season, movement in crude oil prices, foreign fund flows and developments in West Asia next week after the Indian stock market ended its four-week winning streak amid heightened geopolitical tensions and volatile global cues.

Benchmark indices closed the week with marginal losses as renewed tensions in West Asia and a spike in crude oil prices dented investor sentiment.

However, a strong recovery in the final two trading sessions, supported by easing global concerns and robust earnings from Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), helped limit the losses.

The Sensex declined 0.25 per cent during the week to settle at 77,569.39, while the Nifty slipped 0.26 per cent to close at 24,206.90.

In contrast, broader markets remained resilient, with both the midcap and smallcap indices gaining more than one per cent.

Market participants are expected to keep a close watch on the June quarter earnings season, which has begun on a positive note following TCS’ better-than-expected financial performance. The upcoming earnings announcements from several major companies will be crucial in determining the market’s near-term direction.

Geopolitical developments in West Asia will also remain in focus. Investor sentiment turned cautious during the week after fresh US strikes on Iran heightened concerns over regional stability and global energy supplies. Any further escalation or signs of de-escalation are likely to influence risk appetite across global markets.

Crude oil prices will continue to be another key monitorable. Oil prices eased towards the end of the week amid expectations that the US and Iran would continue diplomatic engagement despite renewed hostilities and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The trajectory of crude prices remains critical for India, a major oil importer, as sustained increases could raise inflationary pressures and impact corporate profitability.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers through most of the week, investing around Rs 4,670 crore on a net basis.

The continued foreign inflows, aided by softer crude prices and improving global risk sentiment, provided support to domestic equities despite intermittent volatility.

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PM Modi invites New Zealand investors to partner India in key sectors

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Auckland, July 11: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday invited New Zealand investors and business houses to partner India in infrastructure development, civil aviation, logistics, clean energy, urban mobility, water management, waste management and digital economy sectors.

Hailing India’s vibrant startup ecosystem, PM Modi called for closer engagement between the private sectors of both countries in the fields of innovation, fintech and emerging technologies.

Addressing a select group of CEOs and business leaders, PM Modi noted that New Zealand’s strengths in dairy science, horticulture, and forestry, and India’s consumer market, food parks and agri-tech talent should come together to create global food value chains.

The Prime Minister encouraged businesses to expand investment and commercial partnerships and help realise the target of doubling bilateral trade to 7 billion New Zealand dollars (approximately Rs 35,000 crore) by 2030.

PM Modi emphasised that India-New Zealand economic partnership could become a model for inclusive and sustainable trade and a platform for innovation and prosperity.

In the presence of New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the event, PM Modi said India and New Zealand are bound by shared democratic values, respect for the rule of law, diversity, and a common commitment to sustainable development, providing a strong foundation for an ambitious and forward-looking economic partnership.

He described the India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as a landmark deal that would add depth and dynamism to the bilateral economic ties, and open new opportunities for market access, investment, services, technology and talent mobility.

According to an official statement, PM Modi also underscored that India’s sustained high growth coupled with young and skilled workforce, expanding middle class, digital revolution, next-generation infrastructure push, and continuing economic reforms, offer significant opportunities for trade, investment, and innovation for companies in New Zealand.

The Prime Minister noted that political stability and sustained growth path has positioned India as a significant contributor to global growth.

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Nifty, Sensex post mild weekly loss over escalating West Asia tensions

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Mumbai, July 11: After rallying for four consecutive weeks, the Indian equity benchmarks posted mild weekly loss, as escalating tensions in West Asia sent crude prices higher.

Nifty lost 0.26 per cent during the week and edged up 1.02 per cent on the last trading day to reach 24,206. At close, Sensex was up 827 points, or 1.08 per cent, at 77,569. It lost 0.25 per cent during the week.

Indian equities experienced a volatile week, with early optimism giving way to a sharp bout of risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions.

Investor sentiment weakened after fresh military strikes and concerns over the progress of the US–Iran peace negotiations triggered a risk-off mood across global markets.

“However, the sell-off proved to be short-lived, as investor sentiment improved markedly following encouraging Q1 FY27 business updates from the banking and IT sectors, which provided a constructive backdrop for the upcoming earnings season,” an analyst said.

Indian equities gradually recovered in the latter half of the week as crude oil prices declined from nearly $76 per barrel to the $71–72 range, global technology stocks rebounded, and optimism surrounding the ongoing diplomatic discussions helped improve overall market sentiment.

Sustained earnings outperformance in Q1FY27 is likely to reinforce confidence in the FY27 corporate earnings outlook which could help catalyse a recovery in FII inflows, they said.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers through most of the trading sessions, ending the week with net inflows of approximately Rs 4,670 crore.

On the sectoral front, real estate, consumer durables, and IT outperformed, whereas media, FMCG and chemicals lagged. Mid and small-cap segments outperformed the broader market, supported by gains in realty, consumer durables, and metal stocks.

Broad market indices showed divergence with benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap100 added 1.36 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 rallied 1.26 per cent during the week.

Immediate resistance levels for Nifty are placed at the 24,300 level and the 24,100 level is expected to provide immediate support, followed by the 24,000 level.

Also, immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,800–57,700 zone, while resistance is seen at 58,200–58,300 zone.

Investors remain keen on Q1FY27 earnings and the domestic inflation print, US core inflation data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials.

“Despite the hawkish tone of the recent FOMC meeting, easing inflationary pressures and slowing growth across the US, the EU, and China have strengthened expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance,” a market participant said.

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