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Bank brokerages to continue reporting strong performance: Report

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The domestic capital markets continue to remain on an upward trajectory after a strong performance in FY2021.

The average daily turnover (ADTO) increased to Rs 27.92 lakh crore in FY2021 from Rs 14.39 lakh crore in FY2020, registering an annual growth of 94 per cent. Transaction volumes remain strong in the current fiscal, with the markets clocking an ADTO of Rs 56.36 lakh crore in H1 FY2022.

As per ICRA, the market performance has been supported by favourable liquidity in both domestic and international markets, optimism related to a recovery after the graded reopening of the economy, progress on vaccination rollout and steady retail investor momentum.

Throwing more light, Samriddhi Chowdhary, Vice President & Sector Head – Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA says, “The pool of ICRA-rated bank brokerages reported a strong performance in FY2021 with the estimated average daily turnover (ADTO) increasing 28 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 1.51 lakh crore from Rs 1.18 lakh crore in FY2020, led by the healthy growth in the retail segment.

Despite the changes in the margin requirements, the performance remained healthy in Q1 FY2022 with an estimated ADTO of Rs 1.64 lakh crore, driven by favourable retail investor sentiment. However, the market share of the sample pool of ICRA-rated bank brokerages in terms of transaction volumes declined in FY2021 and moderated further in Q1 FY2022 as they continue to lose share to discount brokers.”

Bank-brokerages reported a strong uptick in earnings in FY2021 registering a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth of 40 per cent in total revenues and 80 per cent in profit after tax. The cost structure and operational efficiency of the bank brokerage companies also improved over the past few years with focus on the rationalisation of branches coupled with cautious efforts towards the transition to a digital business model, thereby improving the operational efficiency across brokerages.

Bank-brokerages have been increasingly looking at other non-broking sources of income, namely capital market lending business, distribution income and investment banking revenue. Bank-brokerages have significantly scaled up the margin funding business over the past fiscal, moving in line with the capital market rally, which has resulted in an increase in their borrowing level.

The retail broking segment has witnessed a significant disruption in the last few years due to the growing prominence of discount brokerages. The competitively priced offerings of discount brokers and the no-frill basic accounts and services have resulted in the realignment of the pricing strategy across the industry.

Adds Chowdhary, “apart from attracting clients from full-service providers, discount brokerage houses have helped expand the market by bringing on board a large number of first-time investors. While the market share for bank brokerages in terms of active clients moderated in FY2021, primarily owing to the faster scaling up of the discount brokerage houses, they reported a strong performance as reflected by the healthy operating metrics and surge in earnings.”

ICRA expects bank brokerages to continue to build their retail franchise and focus more on technology and digital models for customer acquisition. Supported by these factors, bank brokerages are expected to register a healthy growth in client addition as well as transaction volumes, though their share in total active clients would moderate owing to the rapid expansion of the discount broking model. The blended yields are expected to compress going forward, though the focus on fee and fund-based income would support the profitability.

Adds Chowdhary, “Bank brokerages are expected to continue to enjoy better brand recall, trust, higher credibility and financial flexibility by virtue of being a part of banking groups and would, therefore, remain a prominent part of the industry value chain. Bank brokerages are also increasingly looking at the emerging demographic opportunities and new geographical base, which is facilitated through online channels. Going forward, the ability of the bank brokers to effectively ramp up their digital initiatives, attract millennial clients and expand to a newer geographical base such as Tier II and Tier III cities would be critical.”

ICRA expects the net operating income (NOI) of bank brokerages to grow 20-25 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in FY2022 supported by steady broking income along with an uptick in the margin funding and distribution businesses; the ramp-up of other capital markets related businesses could further support the earnings profile. The net profit for bank brokerages is expected to grow 17-20 per cent during the same period.

The borrowings levels of bank brokerages are expected to increase in the current fiscal to support their margin funding business. The gearing levels of bank brokerages are expected to be in the range of 1.5-2 times in FY2022 at an industry level while the gearing across entities would vary between 1 to 3 times based on the scale of margin funding operations.

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Sensex, Nifty fall nearly 1 pc as oil surge weighs on sentiment

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Mumbai, Indian equity benchmarks started Thursday’s session — the final trading day of the week — on a weaker note, with both indices declining nearly 1 per cent in early deals, as a sharp jump in crude oil prices dented sentiment and outweighed support from stock-specific earnings gains.

Sensex fell as much as 0.95 per cent or over 700 points to 76,759.37 in early trade, hitting an intraday low, while Nifty declined 0.96 per cent or more than 200 points to 23,943.45.

Selling pressure was broad-based, with auto, banking, realty, metal, consumer durables and FMCG stocks, falling up to 1 per cent. Eternal, Shriram Finance, IndiGo, M&M, Jio Financial Services, Tata Motors PV, Axis Bank, Grasim Industries, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank were among the top laggards.

While Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap, Nifty 200 and Nifty 500 indices declined by up to around 1 per cent. Meanwhile, the India VIX rose 2.7 per cent to 17.91, indicating heightened market volatility.

According to a market expert, two key headwinds could impact markets in the near term.

“Brent crude at around $120 threatens India’s macroeconomic stability. If prices remain elevated, it could pose downside risks to growth and push inflation higher,” the expert said.

“Secondly, stronger-than-expected results from AI majors in the US and South Korea may extend the ongoing AI trade, potentially leading to further portfolio outflows from India,” he added.

The Fed’s decision to hold rates was on expected lines and is unlikely to have a significant impact. However, the rise in US 10-year bond yields to 4.4 per cent could further incentivise capital outflows from India,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Exit polls indicating consolidation of the ruling party’s position may offer some sentiment support but do not materially alter market fundamentals.

“Investors can focus on companies reporting better-than-expected Q4 results and strong outlooks, where opportunities remain,” he said.

Oil prices rallied after US President Donald Trump reportedly held talks with oil companies on steps to reduce the impact of a potential prolonged blockade of Iran’s ports, raising concerns over possible disruptions to global crude supplies.

Separately, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, broadly in line with expectations, while cautioning about inflation risks stemming from the Iran conflict. Market participants have also pared back expectations of rate cuts in 2026.

Crude oil prices are approaching their 52-week highs of $114.81. Brent crude was trading at $113.18 per barrel, up 2.48 per cent from the previous close, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $109.64 per barrel, also higher on the day.

However, Brent crude hovered close to $120 per barrel after surging over 6 per cent on Wednesday to its highest level since June 2022.

In Asian markets, indices were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were down over 1 per cent, South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.40 per cent, while Singapore’s Straits Times gained 0.65 per cent.

On Wall Street, US markets ended on a flat note, with the S&P 500 settling at 7,135.95, down 0.04 per cent, and the Nasdaq finishing at 24,673.24, up 0.04 per cent.

Notably, domestic equity markets will remain shut for trading on Friday, May 1, in observance of Maharashtra Day.

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Gold, silver see muted trade amid Iran-US de-escalation hopes

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Mumbai, Gold and silver prices traded on a flat note on Monday amid a rise in crude oil prices and reports of a fresh proposal by Iran to end the conflict with the US, raising hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5 contract) were trading at Rs 1,52,410 per 10 grams, down 0.19 per cent or Rs 290 from the previous close of Rs 1,52,699.

By 11:00 A.M., the yellow metal touched an intraday high of Rs 1,53,008, up 0.20 per cent or Rs 309.

Meanwhile, silver futures (May 5 contract) were trading at Rs 2,43,200, down Rs 1,436 or 0.6 per cent.

The white metal touched an intraday high of Rs 2,45,473, up 0.34 per cent or Rs 837 from the previous close, and a low of Rs 2,43,009, down 0.66 per cent or Rs 1,627.

According to a commodity market expert, precious metals are trading with a cautious bias, with prices largely driven by key technical levels amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

On COMEX, gold is holding above the $4,700–$4,680 support zone, with further downside possible below $4,650, while a sustained move above $4,750–$4,800 could revive momentum towards $4,900, the expert said.

On MCX, gold is hovering near Rs 1,52,500, with resistance seen around Rs 1,54,000 and support at Rs 1,50,000, the expert added.

The analyst also said that silver is also showing a cautious undertone, noting that volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical tensions, keeping the overall outlook range-bound in the near term.

In the international market, both metals were largely flat. On COMEX, gold was trading marginally higher by 0.02 per cent at $4,742 per ounce, while silver was down 0.05 per cent at $76 per ounce.

However, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, although Iran has reportedly proposed a fresh peace initiative to the US aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict.

Amid global uncertainty, gold and silver have delivered strong returns to investors over the past year. Gold has gained over 40 per cent in dollar terms over the past year and more than 18 per cent in six months.

Meanwhile, silver has more than doubled investors’ money over the past year and gained over 60 per cent in the last six months.

Additionally, Brent crude jumped over 2 per cent to $107.77, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced to $96.68, an increase of 2.41 per cent.

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Google to invest up to $40 billion in Anthropic amid global AI race

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New Delhi, April 25: US tech giant Google plans to invest up to $40 billion in the artificial intelligence (AI) firm Anthropic, as global technology giants accelerate their push into advanced AI models and infrastructure.

The proposed investment includes an initial $10 billion infusion at Anthropic’s latest valuation of $380 billion, with the remaining $30 billion tied to performance-based milestones, the companies confirmed, according to multiple reports.

The move has built on a multi-year partnership between the two firms, under which Google provides cloud infrastructure and access to Anthropic’s AI models, including its Claude suite.

Moreover, Anthropic also leverages Google’s custom tensor processing units (TPUs) as an alternative to widely used graphics processing units.

The latest agreement between the tech firms came amid surging demand for generative AI tools across enterprises, developers and consumers, which has placed increasing pressure on computing infrastructure.

Notably, Anthropic recently secured 5 gigawatts of compute capacity through collaborations involving Google and Broadcom, with additional expansion planned.

However, despite their collaboration, the companies remain competitors in the AI space, with Google’s Gemini models vying against Anthropic’s offerings in the rapidly evolving market.

Additionally, Google has been steadily increasing its stake in Anthropic since 2023, when it first invested $300 million for roughly a 10 per cent holding. Subsequent funding rounds pushed its total investment beyond $3 billion, with reports suggesting a stake of about 14 per cent prior to the latest deal.

The investment has underscored intensifying competition among major technology firms, which are committing tens of billions of dollars to leading AI labs such as Anthropic and rivals, including OpenAI.

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers and has seen rapid growth in adoption of its AI products, particularly its Claude models, with annualised revenue crossing $30 billion.

The deal has followed a similar arrangement with Amazon, which recently invested $5 billion in Anthropic and committed up to $20 billion more, linked to specific commercial milestones.

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