Baku: Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defence fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.

Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.

The plane went down about 3 km (2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before crashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.

Other footage showed a part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down on the grass.

Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-staff across on Thursday. Traffic stopped at noon, and sirens sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.

Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.

“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said.

Bird Strike Led To Emergency On Board

Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.

Authorities in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia were tight-lipped about a possible cause of the crash but a lawmaker in Azerbaijan blamed Moscow. Rasim Musabekov told the Azerbaijani news agency that the plane was fired on while in the skies over Grozny and urged Russia to offer an official apology.

“Those who did this must face criminal charges,” Musabekov was quoted by Azerbaijani news agency as saying, adding that compensations to the victims should also be paid. “If it doesn’t happen, relations will be affected.” As the official crash investigation started, some experts pointed out that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defence systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.

Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn’t report it.

Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate that it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.

“Much more to investigate, but at high level we’d put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.

Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.

Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.

“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson posted online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.” Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane’s tail reveal the damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defence system.

“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.

Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.

“Perhaps some of the plane’s systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.

Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government connections, also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defence system as it was approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya’s Security Council, said that air defences downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday.

Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities didn’t allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.

Russia Sharply Reacts On Claims

Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defence assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict”.

Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defence fire as unfounded and unethical.

According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.

Kabul, Dec 26: Acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi on Thursday issued a stern warning to Pakistan, urging Islamabad to learn the lessons of history before targetting Afghanistan.

“Afghans will not forget the invasion of their territory, and Pakistani rulers should adopt a measured policy,” several reports quoted Muttaqi as saying on Thursday afternoon during an event marking the 45th anniversary of the Soviet invasion.

During his speech, the foreign minister warned Pakistan to “learn from the fate of the Soviet Union and the United States”, emphasising that Afghanistan will never accept invasions. He also reportedly called on the people of Pakistan to stop their rulers’ wrong policies.

Muttaqi’s strong reaction came less than 48 hours after Pakistani air strikes inside Afghanistan that killed 46 people, including several women and children on Tuesday night.

The airstrikes by Pakistani fighter jets on parts of Barmal district in Paktika province was the second instance this year of Islamabad directly hitting “civilian areas” on Afghan territory. In March, a similar strike had killed eight people, including three children.

Islamabad’s action has triggered a massive condemnation from people in the war-torn country and the Taliban regime even as several analysts in Pakistan also reckon that the move is fraught with risks.

Enayatullah Khwarazmi, the spokesperson for the Afghan Ministry of Defence, stated on Wednesday that Pakistan must realise such arbitrary actions do not solve any problems.

“The Islamic Emirate considers this brutal act a violation of all international principles and an outright aggression, and strongly condemns it. The Pakistani side must understand that such arbitrary actions are not a solution to any problem,” the spokesperson was quoted as saying by Afghan news outlet Tolo news.

Hamid Karzai, the former President of Afghanistan, while condemning the airstrikes of the Pakistani military forces in the “strongest terms”, called it a blatant aggression and violation of Afghan sovereignty.

Karzai said the tension in relations between the two countries was the product of Pakistan’s wrong policies of strengthening extremism in the region and trying to weaken Afghanistan.

He warned that civilized relations based on good neighbourliness would be in the interest of both countries.

Hafiz Zia Ahmad, Pakistan’s Chargé d’Affaires in Kabul, was also called to the Afghan foreign ministry and issued a strong demarche.

While there has been no official reaction from the Pakistan government or the military establishment on the airstrikes, the local media insists that the action was in response to a recent surge in TTP-sponsored terrorist attacks, including the recent attack in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa that resulted in the death of 16 Pakistani soldiers.

“Perhaps this seemingly paradoxical approach has been employed to send the message to Kabul that while Islamabad is ready to talk, it is also willing to strike at anti-Pakistan terrorists inside Afghanistan if the Taliban fail to act,” stated an editorial in Pakistani Daily ‘Dawn’ on Thursday.

Gaza, Dec 26: At least 22 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes across the Gaza Strip, Palestinian sources said.

Mahmoud Basal, spokesperson for Civil Defence in Gaza, told Media that Israeli aircraft targeted tents housing displaced persons inside the Al-Muhabban school in northern Gaza City on Wednesday.

Civil defence crews recovered at least seven bodies and 25 injured individuals from the school following the Israeli attacks, transferring them to a local hospital, Basal said. Local sources and eyewitnesses reported that the tents caught fire and some bodies were mutilated in the bombing.

The Israeli military said in a press statement that an Israeli Air Force aircraft, acting on intelligence, targeted a Hamas member in the Al-Furqan area of Gaza City. The statement claimed the military took precautions, including the use of precision munitions, aerial photographs, and intelligence, to minimise civilian casualties.

In Beit Hanoun town in northern Gaza, four people were killed in an Israeli bombing of a house sheltering displaced people, while paramedics reported four more deaths in an Israeli bombardment targeting a group of Palestinians east of Jabalia.

Khalil Al-Daqran, spokesperson for Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah, said three bodies and dozens of wounded arrived at the hospital after a gathering east of the al-Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza was targeted. The Nasser Medical Complex in Khan Younis also reported receiving four bodies following an Israeli airstrike on a house east of the city.

According to an update released by Gaza’s health authorities on Wednesday, 45,361 Palestinians have been killed and 107,803 others injured since October 7, 2023.

The Israeli escalation followed a surprise attack by Hamas on southern Israeli towns, which Israeli reports say resulted in approximately 1,200 Israeli deaths and over 200 taken hostage.