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A new beginning for Turkey-Israel relations

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The reset of diplomatic ties between Turkey and Israel may result in some new paradigm shifts at the regional level besides helping both to focus more on bilateral economic gains.

Recently there have been indications both from Israel and Turkey that the leadership in those countries was mulling a reset in their bilateral ties.

In Israel’s case it was one more step in the direction of regional rapprochement, while for Turkey it is basically aimed at tackling and furthering its economic woes and regional interests.

The announcement by the two countries on August 17 that they’ll exchange ambassadors and normalise bilateral diplomatic relations, follows re-tuning of Turkish diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

It seems as if the Turkish leadership has realised that its priority should be to focus more on the internal and nearer home issues such as the country’s economic woes, Kurdish problem and its relations with Cyprus and Greece. Better regional ties will give it more time and energy to focus on tackling the country’s economic woes and expectations of the electorate.

The relations between the two countries soured in 2018 when Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador from Ankara, after the killing of 60 Palestinians in Gaza during protests against former US President Donald Trump’s decision to relocate the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

In fact, the Turkish support to the Palestinian groups, particularly the Hamas and its objection to the Israeli annexation of territories in and around the Gaza Strip has been the bone of contention between the two.

The thaw in ties comes after more than 10 years of tensions. A visit to Turkey by Israeli President Isaac Herzog in March, followed by visits of two countries’ foreign ministers, helped warm relations.

Turkey’s compulsions

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have realised the futility of Turkey’s hostile policies and stand against Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This stance has made Turkey isolated in the region besides being economically unviable for it.

One of the basic reasons for Turkiye’s animosity against other so-called Islamic countries is the contest for claiming the title of the Leader of the Islamic World. This has resulted in Turkiye blaming the successive Egyptian, Saudi Arabian and UAE governments as the main source of adopting postures against its claim to the Islamic world’s leadership and making it a pariah state in the region.

Historically it was Turkey, which maintained the Two Holiest Shrines of the Muslim world in Saudi Arabia, before oil was discovered in the Kingdom, which changed its fortunes forever. This newfound wealth led Saudi monarchs to lay claim to being the leader of the Islamic world.

Obviously Turkiye tried to resist this change but the fall of the Ottoman empire led it to modify its stand on several issues related to the Muslim Ummah. In addition Turkiye blamed these governments and their policies as responsible for heightening the regional stability for their own selfish interests. In return these states blamed Turkiye for adopting such postures and policies, which led to friction in the region and amongst so called Islamic states.

As retaliation these countries have bettered relations with both Cyprus and Greece, Turkey’s arch foes in the Mediterranean. While at the same time Turkey has improved ties with Qatar, a country which was made an outcast in the Gulf region in 2017 when UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Bahrain imposed an economic blockade against it.

In addition before facing the electorate next year, Erdogan has shaken hands with Israel in the hope that it may change Turkey’s economic condition with increased economic exchange with Israel, translating into improved economic climate for Turkish citizens.

Israel’s game plan

Recently, Israel has sought to reset its ties with regional countries both Arab and non-Arab. It considers Turkey to be an important factor both regionally and in Gaza also, as Hamas has opened up an office in Istanbul and for the last 10 years it has been operating from Turkey, in addition Israeli authorities feel that closer ties with Turkey will allow it to efficiently conduct intelligence monitoring of Iran.

In addition, Israel feels that if it wants to sell its natural gas to Europe, which was found near its coast in 2010, then the most economically viable route will be through Turkey. It could be a win-win situation for both if they are able to thrash out any future plan for cutting off Russian gas supply to Europe, both diplomatically and financially in the long run.

During the hostile period with Turkey, Israel had come closer to both, Cyprus and Greece. This resulted in increased economic, security and people to people contacts between them. Both countries enjoyed influx of Israeli tourists, who abandoned the Turkey’s coasts. Israel also initiated military cooperation with them and has also been training Greek and Cypriot military forces.

Now Israel will have to balance the geostrategic and potential economic benefits of cooperation with Turkey with Jerusalem’s well-developed ties with Athens and Nicosia. Israeli President Herzog, who played a key role in the Israel-Turkey rapprochement, has given assurances to both Cyprus and Greece that Israel’s new found friendship with Turkey will have no bearing on its existing relationship with Cyprus and Greece.

All in all, one can presume that the present situation points to a scenario where diplomatic, political and security ties may remain cold, as the real target for both the countries is to give a boost to their economic ties. Israel is also aware that Turkey may continue to play the Palestinian card to placate its internal audience.

Over all this odd marriage of convenience might be able to counter other regional alliances and axis’s of power, and both would try to maximise their returns either independently or bilaterally, based on the given situation.

International News

Trump claims Iran ready for nuclear deal

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Washington, June 9: US President Donald Trump said that Iran was willing to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and sign an agreement with the United States, as he claimed American military operations had severely weakened Tehran’s military capabilities.

Speaking during a virtual tele-rally for South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham ahead of Tuesday’s Republican primary, Trump devoted much of his remarks to Iran, ongoing negotiations and the broader security situation in the Middle East.

“We’re negotiating now and they wanna make a very good deal. They’re willing to give us everything. They’re willing to give us no nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and it’s as simple as that.”

Trump claimed US military action had inflicted extensive damage on Iran’s military infrastructure.

“We’ve decimated their military. We’ve decimated their, everything there is to decimate, including their leadership,” he said. “Their navy is totally gone. They had 159 ships. Every ship is underwater right now.”

The President predicted a favourable outcome from negotiations and said a formal declaration of victory could come soon.

“I think we are winning that battle, but you’re really gonna win it over the next two weeks when we declare total victory,” Trump said. “It’ll be a total victory. It’ll happen very soon and oil prices will come tumbling down.”

The remarks came as Trump urged Republican voters in South Carolina to support Graham, a longtime ally who has been one of the Senate’s most vocal advocates of a hard line towards Iran.

“And Lindsey has been fighting with me all the way, all the way for that,” Trump said. “We’ve been a very tough team.”

Trump also praised Graham’s role on border security, military spending and conservative judicial appointments.

“I’ve known Senator Lindsey Graham for many years and he’s always been a tireless advocate for the people of South Carolina,” Trump said.

The President described Graham as having his “complete and total endorsement” and urged voters to support him in Tuesday’s Republican primary.

Trump also endorsed South Carolina Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, calling her “an America first patriot” and predicting she would become a successful governor.

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International News

Trump, Netanyahu hold phone talks after Iranian missile fire: Israeli state media

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Jerusalem, June 8: US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone on Sunday after Iran fired missile barrages at Israel in response to airstrikes in Beirut, Israel’s state-owned Kan TV news reported.

Neither Netanyahu’s nor Trump’s office immediately commented on the call.

Before the call, Trump told Israel’s Channel 12 News that he would tell Netanyahu not to strike back because he did not want US-Iran ceasefire negotiations to collapse, Xinhua news agency reported.

“What I would suggest to Iran: You’ve shot your missiles, that’s enough,” Trump told Fox News. “Get back to the table and make a deal.”

Trump also claimed that Washington and Tehran had been close to reaching an agreement before Iran launched the missiles earlier in the day.

“We’re very close. I would say an agreement would be signed on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday of this coming week. And now this takes place,” he said.

“It’s certainly not going to help negotiations,” Trump said.

In another interview with US media outlet Axios, Trump said he will call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and press him not to retaliate for Iran’s missile attack.

“I am going to call Bibi right now and tell him not to retaliate. Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike, and Iran had its strike. We don’t need another one,” Trump said.

According to CNN, Iran fired at least 10 ballistic missiles toward Israel in at least three separate waves on Sunday. The Israeli military said all of the missiles were intercepted.

Two Israeli sources cited by CNN said Israel would deliver a “powerful” response to the attack, raising concerns about further escalation in the region.

The Israeli military said Sunday night that Iran has so far fired four missile barrages towards the country.

There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage. The missiles have triggered sirens across northern Israel.

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PMK urges TN govt to support paddy cultivation amid Mettur water uncertainty

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PMK

Chennai, June 6 : Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) president Dr Anbumani Ramadoss has urged the Tamil Nadu government to immediately announce a comprehensive Kuruvai package and extend financial and infrastructural support to farmers, warning that the delayed release of water from the Mettur Dam could severely affect paddy cultivation across the Cauvery delta region.

In a statement issued on Saturday, Anbumani said the steadily declining water level in the Mettur reservoir, coupled with the absence of any significant southwest monsoon activity in the Cauvery catchment areas, has made it increasingly unlikely that water will be released from the dam on June 12, the traditional date for the commencement of Kuruvai cultivation.

Every year, water from the Mettur Dam is released into the Cauvery River to support paddy cultivation in more than 10 irrigation districts, including Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam and Mayiladuthurai. However, the reservoir currently holds only 41.60 TMC of water, with the water level standing at around 79 feet, far below the level considered ideal for irrigation release.

Anbumani noted that for a sustained release of water throughout the Kuruvai season, the reservoir level should exceed 90 feet and receive at least 1.5 TMC of inflow daily. He said a minimum of 12 TMC of additional storage and inflows of around 18,000 cusecs into the reservoir would be required to ensure uninterrupted irrigation.

The PMK leader also pointed out that Karnataka’s major Cauvery basin reservoirs currently hold only a fraction of their combined storage capacity. According to him, the Krishna Raja Sagar, Kabini, Harangi, and Hemavathi reservoirs together contain only 33.45 TMC of water, representing just 29.08 per cent of their total capacity of 114.57 TMC. Given these low storage levels, he said Karnataka is unlikely to release substantial quantities of water downstream.

Anbumani warned that if the Mettur Dam is not opened on schedule, the area under Kuruvai cultivation could fall below 3 lakh acres this year, compared to 6.13 lakh acres cultivated during the previous season. Such a decline, he said, would result in significant income losses for farmers and reduce employment opportunities for agricultural labourers.

To mitigate the impact, he called on the state government to encourage farmers to utilise groundwater resources and immediately roll out a Kuruvai package covering subsidised seeds, fertilisers and micronutrients.

He further demanded uninterrupted 24-hour three-phase power supply for agricultural operations and an input subsidy of Rs 5,000 per acre to support farmers facing uncertainty ahead of the cultivation season.

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