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Indian economy in robust spot globally in 2025 with high frequency indicators picking up growth

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New Delhi, Jan 2: As 2025 begins on a note of heightened global uncertainties ahead of the US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, India continues to be in a much stronger position with high frequency indicators showing a pick up in the pace of growth in the third quarter of current fiscal (Q3 FY25), according to a report on Thursday.

GST collections, services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), air passenger growth, and vehicle registrations saw a notable improvement in Q3 versus Q2, according to a Bank of Baroda (BoB) report.

On the other hand, in China, while the manufacturing sector is expanding slowly, lifting domestic consumption and reviving the real estate sector is proving to be a task for the administration.

The US economy is giving mixed signals regarding growth. While the labour market appears to be softening and manufacturing activity is weak, retail sales, pending home sales, and the service sector seem to be doing well. In Europe, manufacturing activity is unable to pick up pace so far, while the service sector is regaining ground.

In India, the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.2 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY25 from 1.3 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY24.

“While the trade deficit was higher, buoyant services exports as well as continued strength in remittances underscored the lower CAD. Our year-end market analysis shows that both Sensex and Nifty 50 surged by 8.7 per cent and 9 per cent in CY24. Sensex touched an all-time high this year as it breached the mark of 85,500,” said Sonal Badhan, economist, Bank of Baroda.

Sectors including real estate, consumer durables, and IT were amongst the best-performing stocks in CY24. The Indian rupee depreciated by 2.8 per cent in 2024, but remained one of the better-performing currencies among its peers.

The pressure on yields was lower and boosted demand flow as the market witnessed the bond inclusion in the JP Morgan emerging market index, Bloomberg, and FTSE Russel.

According to the report, high frequency indicators have shown notable improvement in the October-December 2024 period. GST collections have jumped by 8.3 per cent (YoY) in Q3 to Rs 5.5 lakh crore, and are also up from Rs 5.3 lakh crore in Q2, signalling further improvement in consumption pattern.

Apart from this, helped by festive demand, other indicators of urban consumption have also improved. Air passenger air traffic registered 11.6 per cent growth in Q3, compared with 7.8 per cent growth registered in Q2. Services PMI averaged 59.2 in Q3 versus 58.1 in the same period last year.

“We expect quarterly corporate results to also show improved performance in Q3,” said Badhan.

On the central bank actions, the report said growth is expected to recover in H2 FY25 and inflation abating, “we see a scope of 25 bps rate cut in February 2025. We expect a cumulative easing of 50-75bps in the current cycle.”

Furthermore, with the expectation of a pick-up in government spending followed by improvement in both government and private investment in H2, the IIP growth will perform a lot better in H2 FY25 from H1 FY25, it noted.

National

BJP accuses Congress of opposing voter verification to shield fake votes in Bihar

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New Delhi, June 27: Following Congress’ objection to the Election Commission of India’s special revision of the state’s voter list ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections in Bihar, the BJP has launched a sharp counterattack, accusing the grand old party of attempting to protect fake voters.

BJP state president Dilip Jaiswal defended the ECI and called Congress’ objections baseless.

“The Election Commission is an independent body which works independently. It is its responsibility to ensure that elections are conducted with complete transparency. If any political party opposes this, it is wrong. Fake voting can be prevented by the revision of the voter list. Voters who have died will be identified. This process will also make it clear whether the voter is actually in Bihar or voting somewhere else. This is a very necessary step for transparency. I congratulate the Election Commission for this,” Jaiswal said.

Bihar Congress president Rajesh Kumar on Thursday criticised the ECI for initiating the voter list revision process in a limited time frame.

He alleged that the move is part of a conspiracy to suppress the electoral rights of marginalised communities.

Reacting strongly to these allegations, BJP leader and Minister Nitin Nabin questioned Congress’ intent behind opposing the exercise.

“I say that Congress should clarify what exactly they are objecting to. If genuine voters are being verified and fake voters are being removed, is Congress sitting here to commit fraud? I want to ask the opposition members who are opposing this, are you trying to gain power through fake votes? Such fake voters will definitely be stopped, and the parties doing fraud will also be taught a lesson,” Nabin asserted.

The ECI has issued instructions for holding Special Intensive Revision (SIR) in Bihar, where polls are to be held by year-end. This means electoral rolls for the state will be prepared afresh.

The special voter list inspection has been undertaken by the ECI as a standard pre-election procedure to ensure the accuracy of electoral rolls.

Officials have stated that the process will help remove deceased or duplicate voters and correct errors, ensuring a fair and transparent election.

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Crime

Kerala HC judge files complaint of theft at his residence, police probe on

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Kochi, 27 June: The Kochi police have received a theft complaint from Kerala High Court Judge, Justice A. Badharudeen, according to officials on Friday, stating that six sovereigns of gold were missing from his residence.

The complaint, which was filed on Thursday, mentions that the gold has been stolen from the judge’s bedroom. The police have registered an FIR under Section BNS 305.

What has surprised many is that the thief has decamped with gold from a high-security guarded house located in the heart of the commercial capital of the state.

The judge registered the complaint with the Kalamassery police under which his residence falls.

After the preliminary probe, the police are now planning to prepare a list of those who need to be spoken to, as this incident occurred in the bedroom of the senior judge.

More details are awaited.

The incident has raised concerns regarding the security situation in the state. The Congress-led UDF has been accusing the state government of failing to curb the crimes.

It has been found that Kerala is a haven for organised gangs hailing from neighbouring states who specialise in robbing homes, and the cases against non-Keralaite thieves are also on the increase.

According to information prepared by the home department, which was placed before the Assembly last year, it showed 192 cases of theft involving non-Keralites were registered in 2021, and the numbers have been steadily increasing. This rose to 360 in 2022.

In 2023, the number increased further to 519, and by September 2024, a total of 307 such cases were registered. But the image of the Kerala Police got a boost when over 1,350 thieves during this period were put behind bars.

However, with regards to the case being registered in the burglary at the home of a judge, the police appear to have a tough job ahead.

Likewise, with other crimes also on the increase, the Ernakulam Police have come out with a directive to landlords who are seeking to rent out their properties. The police have urged the landlords to get a police clearance certificate from the prospective tenants from their local police station where they stayed.

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National

Thackeray brothers will jointly hold one anti-Hindi protest: Sanjay Raut

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New Delhi, June 27: Amid plans to hold two protests against imposition of Hindi in schools in Maharashtra, senior Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut on Friday announced that there would be only one demonstration and the two Thackeray brothers would participate in it together.

Even though there has been no formal announcement on this till now by the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) or the Shiv Sena (UBT), but Sanjay Raut’s post on X, in which he has also put up a picture of the two cousins together with a photograph of the late Bal Thackeray in the background, has fuelled speculation of rapprochement between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray and the possibility that they might hold the protest jointly.

Earlier, close to Raj Thackeray’s birthday Uddhav Thackeray had also hinted at a rapprochement between them but nothing concrete had come out of it.

On Thursday MNS chief Raj Thackeray announced the change in morcha date to July 5 instead of July 6 to protest the imposition of Hindi in Marathi and English-medium schools for classes 1 to 5 in Maharashtra.

This was done as the auspicious Ashadhi Ekadashi falls on July 6 when the devotees fast for the day and walk all the way to Pandharpur to pay tribute to the presiding deity Vitthal.

Significantly, Uddhav Thackeray on Thursday extended his party’s support to a morcha organised on July 7 in Mumbai by The Tribhasha Sutra (Three language formula) committee.

Raut’s post is significant because even though both the brothers and their parties had declared that they would not allow the imposition of Hindi, they had announced two different protests.

Insiders from both the parties said that efforts are on to fight as one, in order to avoid a split in the Marathi speaking people opposing the imposition of Hindi.

Now, it remains to be seen whether Sanjay Raut’s post was his own initiative or whether it had the blessings of the leaders of both the parties and the two estranged brothers have finally decided to come together for a cause close to their heart and fight for it jointly.

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