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Slow recovery of low income households slowed down India’s economic recovery

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The slow economic recovery of the low income households post Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the overall economic recovery of the country, said Kotak Securities Ltd.

In a research report, Kotak Securities said, post Covid-19 pandemic, India’s economic recovery seems to be lukewarm on a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis.

The major economic parameters reveal slow post-pandemic recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP), goods and services tax (GST) collections, electricity demand, credit growth and auto sales growing somewhat slowly as against the expectations.

Kotak Securities attribute the weaker-than-expected recovery to the slow ‘repair’ in the income of low-income households.

“It may take a few more quarters for growth to recover to full potential,” the report said.

India’s 1QFY23 GDP grew at 1.3 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite growing 13.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY).

According to the report, the survey-based employment data suggests that India has not completely recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic.

“While formal job creation has been robust, the employment conditions remain frail in the lower-income groups, as employment-seeking under MNREGA is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels,” the report said.

It may take a few more quarters for employment and income to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The six month GST collections in FY23 logged a growth of 13.8 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

The high wholesale price index (WPI) in the last couple of years may have helped higher GST collections in this period. The expectation is that the WPI will sharply trend lower over the next several months.

Collections have grown at a higher pace than nominal GDP growth rate (9.5 per cent on a three-year CAGR), suggesting some widening of the tax base.

On the industrial growth front, India’s indicators look rosy on a yoy basis but lose their sheen when examined on a three-year CAGR basis.

In particular, diesel consumption in 5MFY23 declined by 0.4 per cent and electricity demand grew at 4.7 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has seen a muted 2.2 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite strong government and household investment.

Household investment in real estate was a key driver, seeing a 14 per cent three-year CAGR in major cities, while the Central government capex increased at 23 per cent three-year CAGR. As such, industrial production and private-sector investment are yet to show a meaningful recovery.

Private consumption has not seen much of a recovery, with private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growing at 3.2 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis, Kotak Securities said.

The shallowness of the recovery is prominent in the automobile sector, especially in two wheelers as their sales volumes have declined at six per cent CAGR over the past three years (5MFY23 over 5MFY20), while hatchback (entry segment) volumes have increased at 3.2 per cent CAGR in the same period.

Air passenger traffic has also not seen a complete recovery in 5MFY23.

“We note that retail credit growth has been resilient at 15.3 per c ent CAGR, but not enough to pick up the slack in overall bank credit growth,” Kotak Securities said.

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India’s solar module manufacturing capacity set to touch 165 GW by March 2027

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Mumbai, Nov 6: India’s solar photovoltaic module manufacturing capacity is projected to increase to over 165 GW by March 2027 — up from approximately 109 GW currently, a report said on Thursday.

The strong government support in the form of the approved list of models and manufacturers (ALMM), basic customs duty on imported cells and modules, and the production-linked incentive scheme drove the growth, the report from ratings agency ICRA said.

The report forecasts annual solar capacity installations at 45–50 gigawatt direct current (GWdc), while annual module production is expected to reach 60–65 GW, and this discrepancy may lead to a supply surplus, potentially prompting consolidation among smaller and pure-play module players.

The ALMM List-II for cells, effective June 2026, has encouraged OEMs to increase cell manufacturing to approximately 100 GW by December 2027, up from the current 17.9 GW listed under ALMM, the report noted.

Further, the recent imposition of US tariffs have redirected the supply from the export market to the domestic market, it noted.

However, the report anticipated that the vertically integrated manufacturers will benefit over the long term due to greater control over the supply chain.

Ankit Jain, Vice President and Co-Group Head-Corporate Ratings, ICRA, said that operating profitability for domestic solar OEMs at 25 per cent in FY25 is likely to moderate due to competitive pressures and overcapacity build-up.

As the ALMM requirement for solar cells is effective from June 2026, a significant scale-up in the cell manufacturing capacity along with its stabilisation in a timely manner remains critical in the near term, he added.

Dependence on China for wafers, ingots poses significant risks for the industry’s transition, given China’s dominance in global supply and the potential geopolitical restrictions for backward integration, the report noted.

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Centre throws open booth bookings for startups in ‘Waves Bazaar’ at IFFI Goa 2025

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New Delhi, Nov 6: The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting has announced the opening of bookings for WaveX booths, the exclusive startup showcase zone in Waves Bazaar at the International Film Festival of India (IFFI), Goa 2025, according to an official statement issued on Thursday.

The initiative aims to provide a platform for emerging startups in the AVGC-XR (Animation, Visual Effects, Gaming, Comics, and Extended Reality) and entertainment sectors to connect with global industry leaders, investors, and production studios.

Scheduled from November 20-24 2025, ‘WAVES Bazar’ will be located in the vicinity of Film Bazaar, the prime networking hub of IFFI known for its dynamic participation from filmmakers, producers, and media professionals from across the world.

Each booth will be available at a nominal cost of Rs. 30,000 per stall on sharing basis. The facilities being provided to participating startups include two delegate passes, lunch and high tea, evening networking opportunity and direct visibility among global film, media and tech professionals, the statement said.

“Interested startups can register at wavex.wavesbazaar.com. Limited stalls are available, and allocation will be on a first-come, first-served basis,” the statement added.

WaveX is a national startup accelerator and incubation initiative of the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting dedicated to nurturing innovation and entrepreneurship in the AVGC-XR and media-tech ecosystem.

Through collaborations with leading academic, industry, and incubation networks, WaveX empowers creators and startups to scale their ventures, contributing to India’s growing creative economy.

The International Film Festival of India (IFFI), founded in 1952, is one of Asia’s most significant film festivals, celebrating excellence in world cinema and serving as a meeting ground for filmmakers, artists, and cine enthusiasts. Held annually in Goa, IFFI attracts participation from across the global film fraternity and acts as a catalyst for creative collaboration and opportunities.

The 56th edition of the International Film Festival of India (IFFI) is set to take place from 20th to 28th November 2025 in Panaji, Goa, the statement added.

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India Q2 FY26 earnings exceed expectations led by midcaps: Data

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Mumbai, Nov 6: The FY26 earnings season in the second quarter (Q2) exceeded expectations, driven by strong midcap performance, despite some weakness in select smallcap pockets, industry data showed.

Brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services reported a 14 per cent year-on-year earnings rise among companies that have declared results so far, broadly in line with expectations.

Large-cap earnings rose 13 per cent, in line with the broader universe, while mid-caps again outperformed expectations with a 26 per cent surge, supported by technology, cement, metals, PSU banks, real estate and non-lending NBFCs.

Smallcaps lagged at 3 per cent growth as private banks, non-lending NBFCs, Technology, Retail and Media weighed on performance. Even so, 69 per cent of small-caps met or beat forecasts, compared with 84 per cent of largecaps and 77 per cent of mid-caps, the data showed.

Sectoral performance analysis showed that oil and gas and cement sectors showed highest sectoral gains as state-run fuel retailers led with a 79 per cent increase in profits, while cement profits surged by 147 per cent.

Along with these sectors, technology profits rose by 8 per cent, capital goods by 17 per cent, and metals by 7 per cent, collectively accounting over 80 per cent of incremental profit growth.

Earnings for 27 Nifty firms that have reported results increased by 5 percent year-on-year, driven by HDFC Bank, TCS, JSW Steel, and Infosys while Coal India, Axis Bank, HUL, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Eternal dragged performance. Seven Nifty constituents fell short of estimates, five exceeded forecasts, and 15 met expectations.

“Earnings upgrades outnumbered downgrades for the first time in several quarters, signalling a healthier market backdrop and improving confidence in India Inc.’s profitability trajectory,” the MOFSL report said.

While headline indices remain range-bound after a muted year, underlying fundamentals are improving — supported by moderating earnings cuts, diversified sectoral leadership, and robust midcap resilience, it added.

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