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‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’

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Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Excerpts from the interview:

Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?

A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.

Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?

A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.

Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?

A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?

A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.

Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?

A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.

Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?

A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.

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India’s solar module manufacturing capacity set to touch 165 GW by March 2027

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Mumbai, Nov 6: India’s solar photovoltaic module manufacturing capacity is projected to increase to over 165 GW by March 2027 — up from approximately 109 GW currently, a report said on Thursday.

The strong government support in the form of the approved list of models and manufacturers (ALMM), basic customs duty on imported cells and modules, and the production-linked incentive scheme drove the growth, the report from ratings agency ICRA said.

The report forecasts annual solar capacity installations at 45–50 gigawatt direct current (GWdc), while annual module production is expected to reach 60–65 GW, and this discrepancy may lead to a supply surplus, potentially prompting consolidation among smaller and pure-play module players.

The ALMM List-II for cells, effective June 2026, has encouraged OEMs to increase cell manufacturing to approximately 100 GW by December 2027, up from the current 17.9 GW listed under ALMM, the report noted.

Further, the recent imposition of US tariffs have redirected the supply from the export market to the domestic market, it noted.

However, the report anticipated that the vertically integrated manufacturers will benefit over the long term due to greater control over the supply chain.

Ankit Jain, Vice President and Co-Group Head-Corporate Ratings, ICRA, said that operating profitability for domestic solar OEMs at 25 per cent in FY25 is likely to moderate due to competitive pressures and overcapacity build-up.

As the ALMM requirement for solar cells is effective from June 2026, a significant scale-up in the cell manufacturing capacity along with its stabilisation in a timely manner remains critical in the near term, he added.

Dependence on China for wafers, ingots poses significant risks for the industry’s transition, given China’s dominance in global supply and the potential geopolitical restrictions for backward integration, the report noted.

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Centre throws open booth bookings for startups in ‘Waves Bazaar’ at IFFI Goa 2025

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New Delhi, Nov 6: The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting has announced the opening of bookings for WaveX booths, the exclusive startup showcase zone in Waves Bazaar at the International Film Festival of India (IFFI), Goa 2025, according to an official statement issued on Thursday.

The initiative aims to provide a platform for emerging startups in the AVGC-XR (Animation, Visual Effects, Gaming, Comics, and Extended Reality) and entertainment sectors to connect with global industry leaders, investors, and production studios.

Scheduled from November 20-24 2025, ‘WAVES Bazar’ will be located in the vicinity of Film Bazaar, the prime networking hub of IFFI known for its dynamic participation from filmmakers, producers, and media professionals from across the world.

Each booth will be available at a nominal cost of Rs. 30,000 per stall on sharing basis. The facilities being provided to participating startups include two delegate passes, lunch and high tea, evening networking opportunity and direct visibility among global film, media and tech professionals, the statement said.

“Interested startups can register at wavex.wavesbazaar.com. Limited stalls are available, and allocation will be on a first-come, first-served basis,” the statement added.

WaveX is a national startup accelerator and incubation initiative of the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting dedicated to nurturing innovation and entrepreneurship in the AVGC-XR and media-tech ecosystem.

Through collaborations with leading academic, industry, and incubation networks, WaveX empowers creators and startups to scale their ventures, contributing to India’s growing creative economy.

The International Film Festival of India (IFFI), founded in 1952, is one of Asia’s most significant film festivals, celebrating excellence in world cinema and serving as a meeting ground for filmmakers, artists, and cine enthusiasts. Held annually in Goa, IFFI attracts participation from across the global film fraternity and acts as a catalyst for creative collaboration and opportunities.

The 56th edition of the International Film Festival of India (IFFI) is set to take place from 20th to 28th November 2025 in Panaji, Goa, the statement added.

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Business

India Q2 FY26 earnings exceed expectations led by midcaps: Data

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Mumbai, Nov 6: The FY26 earnings season in the second quarter (Q2) exceeded expectations, driven by strong midcap performance, despite some weakness in select smallcap pockets, industry data showed.

Brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services reported a 14 per cent year-on-year earnings rise among companies that have declared results so far, broadly in line with expectations.

Large-cap earnings rose 13 per cent, in line with the broader universe, while mid-caps again outperformed expectations with a 26 per cent surge, supported by technology, cement, metals, PSU banks, real estate and non-lending NBFCs.

Smallcaps lagged at 3 per cent growth as private banks, non-lending NBFCs, Technology, Retail and Media weighed on performance. Even so, 69 per cent of small-caps met or beat forecasts, compared with 84 per cent of largecaps and 77 per cent of mid-caps, the data showed.

Sectoral performance analysis showed that oil and gas and cement sectors showed highest sectoral gains as state-run fuel retailers led with a 79 per cent increase in profits, while cement profits surged by 147 per cent.

Along with these sectors, technology profits rose by 8 per cent, capital goods by 17 per cent, and metals by 7 per cent, collectively accounting over 80 per cent of incremental profit growth.

Earnings for 27 Nifty firms that have reported results increased by 5 percent year-on-year, driven by HDFC Bank, TCS, JSW Steel, and Infosys while Coal India, Axis Bank, HUL, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Eternal dragged performance. Seven Nifty constituents fell short of estimates, five exceeded forecasts, and 15 met expectations.

“Earnings upgrades outnumbered downgrades for the first time in several quarters, signalling a healthier market backdrop and improving confidence in India Inc.’s profitability trajectory,” the MOFSL report said.

While headline indices remain range-bound after a muted year, underlying fundamentals are improving — supported by moderating earnings cuts, diversified sectoral leadership, and robust midcap resilience, it added.

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