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MPC members showed urgency to contain inflation: Emkay Global

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The unanimous 50bps hike in the repo rate recently by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and a sharp upward revision in the inflation forecast, depicted continued urgency on policy catch-up amid the MPC’s reassessment of the inflation outlook, said Emkay Global Financial Services in a report.

The minutes also indicated the rate trajectory ahead.

The RBI released the minutes of the MPC meeting held during June 6-8, 2022 on Wednesday.

According to Emkay Global, the broadening of inflation pressures and generalisation and persistence of inflation made most members uncomfortable, even though some reckoned the largely imported nature of the current inflation.

“Most members believed that, amid fears of second-round effects on estimates, an early hike was necessary to avoid any unintended economic shocks,” Emkay Global said.

The minutes also gave cues on the rate trajectory ahead. While all reckoned rates needed to go up further, there was still divergence on the possible terminal rate, the report said.

Prof Jayant Varma believed that the RBI MPC, like most leading central banks, should also provide a dot plot to signal its future rate projections, which will help in anchoring long-term bond markets and inflation expectations.

Dr Michael Debabrata Patra argued that the repo rate needs to be increased to at least as high as the one-year-ahead inflation forecast suggests (near zero), knowing that monetary policy works with lags.

According to Dr Ashima Goyal, the current stage of recovery, the one-year ahead real rate must not fall below -1 per cent, Emkay Global said.

Some members see a need for demand compression but recommend moving with caution

Emkay Global said there were signs of caution in terms of aggressive policy tightening. Dr. Patra suggested that current inflation is predominantly a supply-side issue, and as a consequence, for monetary policy, rather than materially compressing demand, managing expectations is the key.

Dr Goyal argued that, unlike the West, India’s inflation is yet neither demand-driven nor seeing a wage-price spiral. Labour markets are not tight and wage increases are not universal yet across rural and urban sectors.

Meanwhile, the credit offtake is still modest – broad money growth at 8.8 per cent was much lower than nominal income growth.

Dr Ranjan suggested continued monetary-fiscal coordination to anchor inflation expectations while RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that the second-round effect of adverse supply shocks is what they are targeting.

According to Emkay Global, the triple whammy of commodity price shocks, supply-chain shocks and resilient growth has shifted the reaction function in favor of inflation containment.

The inflation prints of the next two quarters are likely to exceed seven per cent, which could pressure the RBI into acting sooner rather than later.

FY23 could, thus, see rates go up further by 75bps plus, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral or higher to quickly reach pre-Covid levels, it said.

As per Emkay Global, a maximum tightening of the policy rate by six per cent by FY23, of which liquidity tightening to two per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) is tantamount to another estimated 25bps effective rate hike.

However, the front-loaded rate hike cycle does not imply a lengthy tightening cycle, and once they reach the supposed neutral pre-Covid monetary conditions, the bar for further tightening may go higher incrementally amid increasing growth inflation trade-offs, Emkay Global said.

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Jharkhand: Robbery and firing on trader sparks shutdown in Dhanbad market

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Dhanbad, Nov 10: Traders on Monday launched a massive protest after a businessman was robbed and shot at inside the government-run Market Committee complex in the Barwadda police station area in Dhanbad, Jharkhand, late Sunday evening.

The incident has caused concerns over rising crime in Jharkhand’s coal capital, prompting traders to shut all 417 shops in the market complex for the day.

The attack took place around 8.30 p.m. on Sunday when three bike-borne assailants intercepted trader Shyam Bhimsariya while he was closing his shop.

The miscreants fired at him, snatched a bag containing Rs 4 lakh, and sped off. Bhimsariya narrowly escaped the bullet, which reportedly grazed past him. The incident created panic among shopkeepers and customers, many of whom rushed to safety.

On Monday morning, hundreds of traders assembled at the main gate of the Market Committee complex, raising slogans against the administration and demanding immediate arrests. They alleged that the market, which witnesses a heavy footfall, has long been operating without proper security measures.

The Market Committee complex is one of the busiest business hubs in Dhanbad, recording a daily turnover of Rs 7-8 crore.

“We will not tolerate this kind of atmosphere where traders fear for their lives every evening,” a member of the traders’ association said, adding that if the culprits are not arrested within 48 hours, the protest may spread to other markets across the district.

BJP MP Dhullu Mahto, addressing traders, said criminals are “roaming fearlessly” in Dhanbad. “The morale of criminals has gone up due to weak policing. The police must act immediately to restore confidence among traders,” he said.

Jharia Congress MLA Ragini Singh accused the state government of complete failure on the law and order front. “When crime is discussed in the Assembly, the government remains silent. People are living in fear while criminals are dictating terms,” she remarked.

Outgoing Mayor Chandrashekhar Agarwal demanded urgent security measures in the market area, suggesting that CCTV cameras be installed. He said a permanent police post must be established to prevent the recurrence of such incidents.

Dhanbad District Chamber of Commerce president Chetan Goenka strongly condemned the attack and criticised authorities for ignoring repeated requests for better security.

“It is shocking that a market with a daily business of Rs 7-8 crore has neither CCTV surveillance nor police patrolling. Traders cannot operate under fear. The administration must take permanent measures,” Goenka said.

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Sensex, Nifty open in green amid positive global cues

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Mumbai, Nov 10: Indian benchmark indices opened the week in the green zone on Monday, amid positive global cues and investor optimism of FII coming back to India due to loss in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex was up 115 points, or 0.14 per cent at 83,331 and Nifty inched up 35 points, or 0.14 per cent to 25,521.

The broadcap indices outperformed benchmarks in terms of gains, with the Nifty Midcap 100 up or 0.37 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 adding 0.27 per cent.

Asian Paints, L&T and Hindalco were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Trent, Apollo Hospitals, Max Healthcare, Maruti Suzuki and Dr Reddy’s Labs.

Nifty IT, Metal and Pharma were among the biggest sectoral gainers, adding 0.56 to 0.79 per cent. All the sectoral indices were trading in the green except Nifty Media.

Analysts said that FIIs, particularly the hedge funds, who have been consistently selling in India and taking money out for playing the AI trade, are now likely to pause and slowly reverse the AI trade in favour of non-AI trade in countries like India.

“The strong earnings growth in the US has been a fundamental support that pushed up AI stock valuations to elevated valuations. Countries regarded as AI winners such China, South Korea and Taiwan also have benefited from this AI rally,” said market watchers.

Analysts noted that there are signs of this AI trade losing steam as evidenced by the 3 per cent decline in Nasdaq last week. If this healthy trend persists without high volatility, it will make the US market robust, preempting a bubble formation and its eventual burst, they added.

Further, Wall Street stocks gained as reports suggested the longest shutdown of the US Federal Government might end.

The US markets ended in the green zone in the last trading session, as Nasdaq dipped 0.22 per cent, the S&P 500 added 0.13 per cent, and the Dow inched up 0.16 per cent.

Most of the Asian markets were trading in the green during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index lost 0.03 per cent, and Shenzhen dipped 0.59 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 1.04 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.57 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 3.04 per cent.

On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 4,889 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 1,787 crore.

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Navi Mumbai: CIDCO’s 9.6-Km Kharghar Coastal Road Work To Begin In 2026, Promises Faster NMIA Connectivity By 2029

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Navi Mumbai: Construction of the much-anticipated Kharghar Coastal Road — a key link that will enhance connectivity to the upcoming Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA) — is expected to commence in early 2026, following the receipt of mandatory forest clearances.

Planned by the City and Industrial Development Corporation (CIDCO), the 9.678-kilometre-long and 30-metre-wide arterial road will connect the airport to major nodes such as Belapur and Nerul, significantly improving regional mobility and supporting economic growth across Navi Mumbai.

The project will also provide direct high-speed access to the International Corporate Park (ICP) being developed on the lines of Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC), the Golf Course, and the FIFA-standard Centre of Excellence (COE) at Kharghar.

A grade-separated interchange over the Sion-Panvel Expressway is part of the plan to ensure smooth traffic flow and reduce congestion between the airport and nearby business and recreational hubs.

Of the total road length, 6.96 kilometres will be newly developed, while the remaining portion will integrate with the existing network. The corridor will also cater to the anticipated transport demand from upcoming projects such as the Water Transport Terminal and Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) housing schemes in the area.

CIDCO has awarded the construction contract to the J Kumar–J M Mhatre Joint Venture. Officials said the project will not only boost airport connectivity but also strengthen Kharghar’s position as a major residential and commercial hub, linking it seamlessly to Taloja and Navde.

“Known for its well-planned infrastructure, green cover, and educational institutions, Kharghar is poised to witness a new phase of growth once the coastal road becomes operational. Kharghar coastal road is estimated to be ready by 2029 if everything goes as per plan,” an official from CIDCO said.

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