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Heatwave, reduced wheat production credit negative for India: Moody’s Investors Service

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High climatic temperatures affecting northwest India curbing wheat production and possible extended power outages exacerbating already high inflation and hurting growth is credit negative, said Moody’s Investors Service on Monday.

The credit rating agency in a report said: “Over the longer term, India’s highly negative credit exposure to physical climate risks — which contributes to the country’s highly negative environmental risk issuer profile score and credit impact score — means its economic growth will likely become more volatile as it faces increasing, and more extreme, incidences of climate-related shocks,” Moody’s said.

The Indian government has revised down its estimates for wheat production by 5.4 per cent to 105 million tonnes for the crop year ending June 2022, given lower yields amid higher temperatures, Moody’s said.

The lower production, and fears that a surge in exports to capitalise on high global wheat prices would add to inflationary pressures domestically, has prompted the government to ban the export of wheat and to divert it toward local consumption instead.

Although the move will partially offset inflationary pressures, it will hurt exports and subsequently growth. The ban comes at a time when India — the world’s second-largest wheat producer — could have been capitalising on the global output gap from wheat following the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, Moody’s said.

Global wheat prices have jumped 47 per cent since the conflict began in late February.

According to Moody’s, the wheat export ban is likely to induce further surge in wheat prices in importing countries like Bangladesh, which absorbed 56.8 per cent of India’s wheat exports in fiscal 2021, Sri Lanka-8.3 per cent, UAE – 6.5 per cent and Indonesia – 5.4 per cent.

Additionally, elevated power demand amid the heatwave and an uptick in economic activity — resulting in higher domestic power prices — prompted India’s Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) to cap power prices at Rs 12 per kilowatt-hour in the electricity exchanges.

With suppliers importing coal at market rates to fill the shortfall and inadequate supply to meet peak demand, at least 16 out of 28 states experienced 2-10 hours of power outage per day in April, Moody’s said.

After the price ceiling was introduced on April 1, India’s total domestic coal actual stock fell 23 per cent by mid-May, with days of actual stock declining to 7.8 days from 10 days.

Further drawdowns in coal inventory could lead to prolonged power outages in industrial and agricultural production, leading to significant cuts to output and weighing further on India’s economic growth — particularly if the heatwaves continue beyond June.

Inflation will be partially alleviated by keeping wheat production for domestic consumption and the cap in power prices in exchanges, as well as the Reserve Bank of India’s 40-basis-point policy rate rise in early May.

However, given the prominence of cereals and food more generally in India’s consumption, elevated food prices could add to social risks if they persist.

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World Bank flags rising poverty levels in Pakistan

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New Delhi, Oct 8: The World Bank has expressed serious concern over Pakistan’s economy as the country has failed to reduce poverty despite massive loans injected by the IMF.

The current model of growth has failed to ameliorate the conditions of the poor, and the headcount ratio (HCR) has surged to its highest level of 25.3 per cent in the last eight years, which is a 7 per cent increase in HCR since 2023, the World Bank report states.

Instead of concentrating on rural development to reduce poverty, the Pakistan government has been focused more on increasing defence expenditure.

The World Bank report titled “Reclaiming Momentum Towards Prosperity: Pakistan’s Poverty, Equity and Resilience Assessment” released on September 23, mentions that even the country’s aspiring middle class (constituting 42.7 per cent of its population) is “struggling to achieve full economic security”.

Pakistan’s once-promising poverty reduction trajectory has come to a troubling halt, reversing years of hard-fought gains.

After dramatically reducing poverty from 64.3 per cent in 2001 to 21.9 per cent in 2018 — declining by 3 percentage points annually until 2015 before slowing to less than 1 percentage point per year — recent compounding shocks have pushed poverty rates back up to a projected 25.3 per cent by 2023-24, the report states.

The economic model that delivered early wins has reached its limits, with 14 per cent of the population in 2018 remaining vulnerable to falling back into poverty when faced with shocks.

Compounding crises — Covid-19, economic instability, devastating floods, and record-high inflation—have further exposed systemic weaknesses, leaving many in low-productivity activities and unable to cope with these challenges, the report points out.

Bold policy reforms are now essential to address structural imbalances, prevent sliding back into poverty during shocks, and tackle the persistent challenges in remote areas. In this context, this Poverty, Equity, and Resilience Assessment , the first since the early 2000s, looks at how poverty has evolved in Pakistan by combining traditional and non-traditional data, offering detailed analysis and strategic direction on the country’s efforts and challenges to reduce poverty and promote equity.

This comprehensive assessment aims to provide a roadmap for policymakers and stakeholders to address poverty and equity challenges in Pakistan effectively, the report added.

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Securing India’s cyberspace a shared responsibility: Centre

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New Delhi, Oct 8: As cybersecurity incidents doubled in 2 years from 10.29 lakh in 2022 to 22.68 lakh in 2024, the Centre said on Wednesday that securing India’s cyberspace is a shared responsibility where the government and citizens must work together to combat cyber fraud.

Over 1,05,796 police officers are now registered on the CyTrain portal, with more than 82,704 certificates issued, equipping frontline personnel with essential cybercrime investigation skills, according to an official statement.

With financial support of Rs 132.93 crore from the Centre, cyber forensic-cum-training laboratories have trained over 24,600 personnel in cybercrime investigation, digital forensics, and preventive measures.

Further, as of March 2025, CERT-In facilitated 109 cybersecurity mock drills, engaging 1,438 organisations from different states and sectors to assess cyber readiness and build resilience, the government said

India’s digital expansion has connected over 86 per cent of households to the internet, increasing the risk of cyber fraud. Advanced forensics, big data analytics, and indigenous tools have bolstered national cyber resilience, the release said.

As India celebrates its rapid 5G rollout, with 1.2 billion mobile subscribers and 970 million internet users, the focus on secure, inclusive, and scalable digital ecosystems reinforces the country’s position as a global hub for trusted and transformative digital infrastructure, the release said.

The government cited evolving threats, including spoofing, phishing, and AI-driven deepfakes, where individuals are lured into revealing sensitive information through deceptive emails or messages, which are also on the rise.

As UPI was targeted using compromised mobile numbers, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) launched the Financial Fraud Risk Indicator (FRI), which classified suspicious numbers as medium, high, or very high risk.

India’s legal framework includes the Information Technology Act and the Digital Personal Data Protection Act, along with operational platforms like CERT-In, NCIIPC, Samanvaya, and the Sahyog portal to combat the rise of cybersecurity threats, the release said.

Further, the National Cyber Crime Reporting Portal has been launched to enable citizens to report complaints relating to various categories of cybercrime, with a special focus on offences targeting women and children. A dedicated cybercrime helpline number, 1930, provides immediate assistance to victims of online financial fraud, the release noted.

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DGCA fines IndiGo Rs 20 lakh for lapses in pilot training

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New Delhi, Oct 8: The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has imposed a fine of Rs 20 lakh on IndiGo for alleged lapses in pilot training at Category C aerodromes, airline’s parent company, InterGlobe Aviation, informed the stock exchanges on Wednesday.

According to the company’s filing, IndiGo received the communication from the aviation regulator on September 26.

The DGCA said the violation was related to the airline’s failure to use qualified simulators for pilot training, which is mandatory under aviation safety rules.

“Details of violation(s)/contravention(s) committed or alleged to be committed: Alleged failure to use qualified simulators for pilot training at Category C Aerodromes,” the company said in its filing.

In its response, IndiGo said it is contesting the DGCA order before the appellate authority.

The airline added that the penalty will not have any material impact on its finances, operations, or business activities.

“The Company is in the process of contesting this Order before the appropriate appellate authority,” the airline said.

“There is no material impact on financials, operations or other activities of the Company,” the airline added.

The company also explained the delay in disclosure, stating that it was unintentional and happened because of a lag in internal communication regarding the details of the order.

“The delay in disclosure was unintentional and was caused due to a delay in internal communication of details pertaining to the order,” the low-cost carrier mentioned.

The shares of IndiGo closed the intra-day trading session at Rs 5,630.50, down by Rs 33.50 or 0.59 per cent apiece on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

Meanwhile, earlier this year, a Delhi-bound IndiGo aircraft carrying more than 150 passengers, including Samajwadi Party leader and Lok Sabha member Dimple Yadav, had aborted take-off at Lucknow airport after a technical issue was detected.

According to the official statement, the incident took place on IndiGo flight 6E2111, which was scheduled to depart from Lucknow to Delhi.

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