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Consumer inflation at 8-year high may ‘trigger’ quicker rate hikes

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Sounding a red alert on India’s CPI inflation at an 8-year high print of 7.79% YoY in April, Acuite Ratings has said it may trigger quicker rate hikes.

“If inflation pressures continue to mount there is a likelihood of additional hikes thereby taking the rate to its pre- pandemic level of 5.15 per cent or even higher in FY23. Additionally, we also expect CRR to be hiked by another 50 bps by H1FY23,” Acuite Ratings said.

Given the tone of urgency in RBI’s statement to support the altered inflation-growth dynamics, “we now revise our call and expect the RBI to hike repo rate by an additional 60 bps in the rest of FY23”.

The increasing price pressures was in motion even before the onslaught of the geopolitical conflicts. However, lingering war between Russia and Ukraine, unprecedented level of sanctions, elevated oil and commodity prices along with prolonged supply chain disruptions have escalated the inflationary concerns both in the global as well as domestic economies, it said.

Globally most economies have shifted from an extended disinflationary phase to tackling strong inflationary concerns, causing key central banks monetary policy rhetoric to switch to extreme hawkishness and policy tightening in 2022 from pandemic-era accommodative policies.

“From domestic standpoint, for FY23, inflation drivers are likely to face considerable pressure from persistent hardening of input prices. The heightened pressure from commodity prices is also coinciding with unlocking of the economy post Omicron wave while vaccination coverage continues to gain traction. While we stick to our estimate of 5.9 per cent for FY23 CPI inflation, we now believe that there is a buildup of upside risks,” Acuite Ratings said.

“Going forward, we expect the core inflation to remain sticky at elevated levels given upward revision of petrol and diesel prices by the OMCs in order to reduce the under-recoveries being accumulated by them at the current crude prices of USD 100 plus per barrel.”

Acuite Ratings said the government, however, may also consider a partial absorption of the increased prices through a further excise duty cut on petrol and diesel which could provide marginal comfort from inflation perspective. While the direct pass-through of elevated commodity prices can be seen through increasing prices of petrol and diesel and non-subsidized LPG, indirect pass through of unprecedented input cost pressures by manufacturers is visible through rising prices of certain personal care products within FMCG sector which will get reflected in the core CPI print in the coming months.

After moderating close to RBI’s inflation target rate in September-21, headline CPI inflation has been rising incessantly with the print breaching the upper tolerance threshold in Q4 FY22, averaging at 6.34 per cent. It has started to gather steam in April-22 gaining strength from the geo-political crisis and rising to an eight year high of 7.79 per cent YoY from 6.95 per cent YoY in March-22.

Business

Indian indices end week in bullish tone over positive global cues

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Mumbai, Dec 20: Indian equity benchmarks closed on a strong note this week, snapping a four-day losing streak amid positive global cues stemming from US inflation data.

The market ended the week in a bullish tone with Nifty surging 0.18 per cent during the week and 0.58 per cent on the last trading day to 25,966, after a softer US CPI print boosted expectations of a milder Fed stance.

At close, the Sensex was up 447.55 points or 0.53 per cent at 84,929.

Indian equities were traded in a cautious tone for most of the week, weighed down by persistent FII outflows, rupee depreciation, and heightened global uncertainties.

Further, early sessions also saw pressure from rising Japanese bond yields and expectations of Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening, which amplified risk-off sentiment across emerging markets.

Bargain hunting and lower crude prices helped large caps drive a late rebound, trimming most of the week’s losses, market watchers said.

Broader indices also rose marginally during the week, with the Nifty Midcap100 up 0.04 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 was unchanged during the week. It gained 1.34 per cent at the close.

On the sectoral front, all sectors traded with a positive bias. Major contributions came from Nifty Realty, Auto, Healthcare, and Chemicals, while other sectors also posted modest gains.

Nifty has 26,200-26,300 as stiff resistance levels while 25,700–25,800 levels will act as support zone, they added.

Analysts said markets will likely maintain a cautiously positive bias in near future but remain highly sensitive to global cues.

Key drivers going forward include comments from the global central banks for the 2026 policy trajectory. While sentiment remains constructive, near-term volatility may persist amid uncertainty over trade deal timelines and the Indian rupee stability, they added.

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Business

Nifty to touch 29,094 in 12 months supported by durable earnings, strong macro backdrop

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New Delhi, Dec 19: India’s benchmark index Nifty is expected to touch 29,094 in one year based on long‑term valuation averages and earnings durability, a report said on Friday.

Wealth management firm PL Wealth said in the report that India enters the end of 2025 from a position of relative macro strength with record‑low inflation, a dovish monetary stance, resilient domestic demand and improved corporate earnings visibility.

“In the near term, large-cap stocks remain preferred due to their earnings stability and strong balance sheets, while selective exposure to high-quality mid-cap names is being added as visibility improves,” the wealth management firm cited its strategy.

Over the next 6 to 24 months, the earnings cycle is expected to broaden across consumption, financials, capex-linked sectors and select industrials, supported by benign inflation, lower interest rates and sustained domestic liquidity.

“India’s current macro configuration is among the most constructive we have seen in over a decade,” said Inderbir Singh Jolly, CEO, PL Wealth Management.

While global uncertainties will continue to create short-term volatility, India’s structural strengths—policy reform, financialisaton of savings and improving corporate balance sheets—position it well for sustained long-term growth, Inderbir added.

RBI’s 25 basis‑point cut to a 5.25 per cent policy repo rate lowered its CPI inflation projections and upgraded GDP growth estimates, signalling confidence in the sustainability of domestic demand, the report said.

The firm also noted FY26 GDP growth projection of 7.3 per cent underpinned by robust infrastructure spending, resilient consumption and key policy measures such as GST rationalisation and income-tax cuts.

The FY26 September quarter earnings season delivered broad-based strength, with several sectors—including hospitals, capital goods, cement, electronics manufacturing services, ports, NBFCs and telecom—reporting double-digit growth in EBITDA and profits.

The firm noted that Nifty earnings per share estimates for FY26–FY28 imply an earnings CAGR of nearly 14 per cent. Domestic institutional investors have anchored markets with record net inflows of over Rs 6.8 trillion year‑to‑date.

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Indian stock markets open higher amid positive global cues

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Mumbai, Dec 19: Indian stock markets opened on a positive note on Friday, taking cues from supportive global markets, even as benchmark indices remained on track to close the week in the red for the third consecutive session.

In early trade, the Sensex was trading at 84,866.06, up 384.25 points or 0.45 per cent at around 9:20 AM.

The Nifty index was also higher, quoting at 25,926.90, up 104 points or 0.4 per cent. The index continues to trade within the 25,700–25,900 range, reflecting trader indecision.

“Immediate resistance is placed at 25,900–26,000, while key supports are seen at 25,700 and 25,600,” analysts said.

Buying interest was seen in several heavyweight stocks. Shares of TMPV, Eternal, Infosys, Power Grid, BEL, Sun Pharma, and Bajaj Finserv gained up to 1.5 per cent and emerged as the top performers on the Sensex.

On the other hand, ICICI Bank and Bharti Airtel were the only stocks trading in the red during early deals.

Sectorally, all indices were trading higher. The Nifty Healthcare index led the gains, rising 1.14 per cent, followed closely by the Nifty Pharma index, which was up 1.1 per cent.

The Nifty Auto index also gained around 0.5 to 0.57 per cent.

The broader markets mirrored the positive sentiment, with the Nifty Midcap index gaining 0.45 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap index was up 0.47 per cent.

Meanwhile, investors remain cautious ahead of several key global and domestic triggers.

Globally, market participants are keeping an eye on retail sales data from the UK, wage tracker data from the euro area, and the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet numbers. On the domestic front, investors are awaiting the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes and the latest foreign exchange reserve data.

In terms of institutional activity, foreign institutional investors turned net buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 614.26 crore on Thursday.

Domestic institutional investors also supported the market, with net purchases of Rs 2,525.98 crore during the same session.

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