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US dollar advances on continuous rise of inflation

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The US dollar gained ground against most of a basket of currencies in late trading amid rising inflation pressure and expectation of an earlier hike of interest rate by the Federal Reserve.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, rose 0.39 per cent at 96.8639 in late trading on Wednesday.

US personal consumption expenditure price index in October grew 0.6 per cent month on month, higher than 0.4 per cent of expansion in the previous month, according to the data issued by the US Department of Commerce on Wednesday morning.

The index posted year-on-year growth of 5 per cent in October, up from 4.4 per cent in September, according to the US Department of Commerce.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise benchmark interest rates as early as mid-2022 with some calling for faster tapering of the bond purchasing programme, Xinhua news agency reported.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on Wednesday said she certainly sees a case to be made for speeding up the tapering of Fed’s bond purchasing programme.

“If things continue to do what they have been doing, then I would completely support an accelerated pace of tapering,” said Daly in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

The Fed has as much as 91.2 per cent probability of raising benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points by the scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 15, 2022, according to the FedWatch Tool on the website of CME Group.

The probability for at least 25 basis points of interest rate hike by then stood at 73.5 per cent a day ago, according to the FedWatch Tool.

In late New York trading, the euro fell to $1.1199 from $1.1250 in the previous session, and the British pound fell to $1.3323 from $1.3381 in the previous session. The Australian dollar fell to $0.7192 from $0.7223.

The US dollar bought 115.43 Japanese yen, higher than 115.06 Japanese yen of the previous session. The US dollar was up to 0.9341 Swiss franc from 0.9332 Swiss franc, and it fell to 1.2671 Canadian dollars from 1.2682 Canadian dollars.

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US-Iran peace pact a major breakthrough, global economy to rebound: Industry

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New Delhi, June 15: Business chamber Assocham on Monday welcomed the peace deal between the USA and Iran as a major breakthrough that would benefit the entire world and bring the global economy back on the growth path.

Assocham president Nirmal K Minda said, “The peace deal had been awaited for many weeks. This is a major breakthrough between the USA and Iran for the benefit of the whole world, as war benefits no one.”

“India, though it mitigated the West Asia war impacts to a large extent, is expected to rebound strongly to attain its trend growth rate in the current financial year 2026-27. We can expect India to clock a growth rate of 7 per cent in FY2026-27 with dynamic and effective policy measures of the Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India in recent months,” he observed.

The peace deal is expected to bring the global economy back on track and to achieve the earlier estimated GDP growth rate, he added.

US President Donald Trump while welcoming the peace agreement, said in a social media post that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial shipping and the US would lift its naval blockade.

“Let the oil flow!” Trump remarked on Sunday. He went on to claim that, in contrast with the failures of past US presidents, he secured a “great deal that would bring peace and security to the whole region.”

US Vice-President JD Vance said in an interview with Fox News that Iran never possessing a nuclear weapon was “built into this agreement” and that the US will be able to verify compliance.

Questions over crucial issues including the restrictions that have to be imposed on enrichment uranium and the stockpile of highly enriched uranium with Iran are expected to be sorted out in subsequent talks.

In his comments, Vance also mentioned the hardship that US citizens had go through due to higher fuel prices and their cascading adverse impact on the economy.

He assured the American people that fuel prices would start coming down. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council released a statement on Sunday saying that “final negotiations will be postponed until after the implementation of the other party’s commitments under the memorandum of understanding”.

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Wholesale inflation at 9.68 pc in May, new WPI series launched with 2022-23 base year

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New Delhi, June 15: The Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Monday said that it launched a revised Wholesale Price Index (WPI) series with 2022-23 as the new base year and reported wholesale inflation at 9.68 per cent in May.

The new WPI series replaces the existing 2011-12 base year series and is part of a broader overhaul of producer price measurement in the country.

Alongside the revised WPI, the government released new series of Output Producer Price Index (OPPI), Trial Input Producer Price Index (IPPI) and Service Producer Price Indices (PPI) for seven services.

According to the ministry, the transition towards producer price indices is aligned with global best practices and recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The WPI series will continue to be released for five years to allow users sufficient time to transition to the PPI framework.

In addition, the All India WPI inflation rate for May stood at 9.68 per cent year-on-year, while the index for all commodities rose to 109.9.

Among major groups, inflation in primary articles accelerated to 4.99 per cent in May.

However, fuel and power inflation surged to about 30 per cent, while manufactured products inflation rose to 7.48 per cent during the same period.

The ministry said mineral oils, crude petroleum and natural gas, chemicals and chemical products, and basic metals were among the major contributors to wholesale inflation.

Moreover, the WPI Food Index recorded inflation of 4.49 per cent in May.

As part of the revision, the total number of items covered under the WPI basket has increased from 697 to 957.

The new series also incorporates renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power under the electricity category and includes nuclear electricity in the basket, the government said.

Meanwhile, the government has reorganised the energy basket by moving crude petroleum and natural gas from the primary articles group to fuel and power.

The revised methodology uses gross value of output (GVO) for deriving weights and introduces updated techniques for index compilation and treatment of missing price data.

The ministry said the new output PPI for all commodities stood at 109.6 in May, while the trial Input PPI for the manufacturing sector was recorded at 104.9.

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Global crude oil prices tumble up to 5 pc on US-Iran deal

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New Delhi, June 15: Global crude oil prices declined by nearly 5 per cent on Monday after the United States and Iran reached an agreement and announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies.

The international oil benchmark Brent crude fell as much as 4.90 per cent to $83.05 per barrel in early trade, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude plunged 5.74 per cent to around $80 per barrel.

According to market experts, Asian equities surged at the start of the week as progress towards a US-Iran peace deal boosted global risk appetite, while US futures also traded firmly higher.

“Meanwhile, Brent crude oil declined sharply by more than 4 per cent towards the $83-per-barrel mark, easing inflation concerns and providing additional support to market sentiment,” they said.

US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that a deal with Iran had been completed. “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” according to him.

In addition, he declared the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil supply passes.

“I hereby fully authorise the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and, simultaneously, the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Trump wrote.

According to reports, the United States and Iran are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday.

The positive development lifted sentiment across global equity markets. Major Asian indices, including Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, South Korea’s KOSPI and Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite, traded higher, with some markets gaining more than 5 per cent.

Back home, domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty also opened strongly, with both indices rising more than 1 per cent in early trade.

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