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Ukraine’s halt of Russian gas transit raises supply, price concerns

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Valletta, Jan 2: The halt in Russian gas transit through Ukraine has sparked fears of supply shortages and soaring energy costs, particularly in landlocked European nations like Slovakia.

Both Ukraine and Russia announced the stoppage on Wednesday, pushing some EU countries to resort to costlier energy alternatives.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on Wednesday said that stopping gas transit through Ukraine to Europe will have “severe consequences for all of us in the European Union (EU), but will not harm Russia.”

The stoppage follows Ukraine’s decision not to renew a 2019 gas transit agreement between its state-run Naftogaz and Russia’s Gazprom, which expired on December 31, 2024.

“At 07:00 a.m. (0500 GMT), in the interests of national security, the transportation of Russian natural gas through the territory of Ukraine was stopped,” the Ukrainian Energy Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. Similarly, Gazprom confirmed that it has stopped gas supply due to expiration of key agreements and Ukraine’s refusal to renew them.

In a letter to the European Commission (EC) on Sunday, Fico condemned Ukraine’s gas transit halt as irrational and warned it would heighten tensions and harm the EU more than Russia. He also indicated his government might consider measures such as cutting electricity supplies to Ukraine.

Slovakia, heavily dependent on Russian gas, is among the worst-hit countries. It imported approximately 3 billion cubic metres of natual gas from Russia through Ukraine annually, accounting for two-thirds of its demand.

However, the EC has downplayed the potential impact, with a spokesperson saying that the European gas infrastructure is “flexible enough” to provide gas of non-Russian origin to central and eastern Europe via alternative routes, and that it has been reinforced with significant new liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacities since 2022.

Mark Cigoj, editor-in-chief of the Croatian weekly 7 Dnevno, has said that Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary are particularly vulnerable, given their reliance on Russian gas and lack of direct access to LNG imports.

Slovakia’s Regulatory Authority for Network Industries, the country’s energy regulator, has forecasted household gas price increases of 15-34 per cent in 2025 without state energy assistance.

To cushion the impact, the Slovak government has allocated around 235 million euros ($244 million) for energy aid, further straining the country’s already tight budget.

SPP, Slovakia’s state-owned gas utility, on Wednesday assured continued supply but acknowledged the increased costs of alternatives. Moldova, which imports approximately 2 billion cubic metres of gas annually from Russia via Ukraine, has enacted measures on Wednesday to cut electricity usage by at least 30 per cent.

The measures include limiting street lighting, stopping escalators in some public and commercial buildings, and changing the working hours for high-energy-consuming areas.

In 2023, roughly 15 billion cubic metres of Russian gas were transported via Ukraine to Europe, accounting for around 5 per cent of Europe’s needs. Following the halt of Ukraine transit, the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea becomes the sole remaining route for transporting Russian gas to Europe.

According to the EC, the share of Russia’s pipeline gas in EU imports has plummeted from over 40 per cent in 2021 to about 8 per cent in 2023.

However, Cigoj noted that the EU must develop a clear plan for coordinating gas purchases among member states, warning that higher margins and transport costs will drive up gas prices, further fueling inflation.

While many European countries have significantly reduced their reliance on Russian gas since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, nations like Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria remain dependent on it.

Slovak Vice Premier and Economy Minister Denisa Sakova said on Tuesday that Slovakia is technically well-prepared for the stoppage of gas supplies, as the country has sufficient gas reserves and alternative gas supplies for the year of 2025.

However, she warned of challenges if the issue persists into the winter heating season next year.

Obviously, European countries will have to organise themselves to purchase significantly more expensive gas from other sources in the future, Cigoj said.

Markus Krug, deputy head of the gas department at Austria’s energy regulator E-Control, has said that Russian gas would likely continue to flow through Turkey, supplying Hungary.

He estimated that Slovakia’s gas supply could primarily come from Hungary, the remainder from Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland.

The TurkStream gas pipeline, with an annual capacity of 31.5 billion cubic metres, offers limited capacity to absorb increased demand. To address the shortfall, the EU will have to rely more heavily on LNG imports, which come at a significantly higher cost.

International News

India on high alert as Imran Khan rumours push Pakistan towards chaos: ISI eyes major diversionary strike

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New Delhi, Nov 28: Indian Intelligence agencies have alerted the security forces to remain in a state of very high alert in the wake of the developments unfolding in Pakistan. Trouble is brewing in Pakistan in the wake of rumours relating to the death of former Prime Minister, Imran Khan.

Huge crowds are mobilising outside the Adiala Jail in Rawalpindi, where Khan is lodged. Thousands of PTI supporters have gathered outside the jail demanding that they meet with their leader.

The Pakistan Army, however has refused permission for a meeting with Khan, while also dismissing rumours about his death.

Intelligence Bureau officials say that rumours relating to the death of Khan began to circulate three days back. Since then there has been a massive build up of his supporters. If the Army does not provide proof that Khan’s supporters have been seeking, then violence is bound to engulf Pakistan.

An official said that violence is imminent in Pakistan given the current situation. For India, the spillover is the concern and trouble in the neighbourhood is never a good sign for national security.

An Intelligence Bureau official said that the ISI is already planning a series of major attacks in India, so that attention is diverted. Khan remains a very popular figure in Pakistan and if news about his death is true, then the country would witness violence of a very unprecedented nature.

It would be beyond the control of the security forces in Pakistan to control the people and eventually the country could face a civil war like situation. The Army wants to keep Imran Khan down and all issues relating to him under wraps.

However, it may not be able to sustain this for long as the people are getting anxious and are seeking answers. The ratings of the establishment in Pakistan, especially with Field Marshal Asim Munir at the helm has hit an all time low.

An official said that the people are being stopped by force and the Army does realise that a majority of the population wants the current dispensation out.

Pakistan watchers say that the people are particularly upset that the Army engineered a coup to take Khan out of power and install a dummy government under Shehbaz Sharif. There is no respect for a democratically-elected process and the people have being voicing their disgruntlement against this, experts add.

Indian officials say that the rumours relating to Khan’s death was something that the establishment did not expect. This has put the Army on the back foot. If one looks at the build up of supporters, it is massive and the Army would not be able to contain them by using force.

Officials say that the Pakistan Army would look to buy time so that it would be able to handle the situation. In order to buy time, the Army and ISI would plot attacks in India so that this would act as a diversion for sometime.

The chatter that has been picked up suggests a sense of urgency to carry out a spectacular strike in India. The ISI is not planning some small attack. It wants one on the scale of a Mumbai 26/11 or Pulwama so that the attention and focus of the Pakistan people is completely diverted, another official said.

Intelligence agencies have alerted security officials to keep a watch particularly on the eastern border. There is a lot of ISI related activity that is on in Bangladesh. Several modules have come up in collaboration between the Lashkar-e-Tayiba and Harkat-ul-Jihadi-Islami (HuJI) with the sole intention of carrying out attacks in India.

Pakistan is also planning to fly in Hafiz Saeed to Bangladesh so that he could give the members of this module a pep talks. Officials say that Saeed is always roped in to give the terrorists of his modules a pep talk just before a major attack is launched.

This was found to be the case prior to the Mumbai 26/11 attacks. Officials say that given the current situation in Pakistan, the ISI is desperate to create a diversion.

With the borders with Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab becoming harder to operate, the focus is on the modules of Bangladesh to carry out a major attack in India, officials add. Officials also add that such a diversion would give the Pakistan Army time to handle the situation relating to Imran Khan, which in turn would calm the people.

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Shooting fallout: Prez Trump announces plan to halt migration from Third World nations

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TRUMP

New Delhi, Nov 28: Days after an Afghan national allegedly opened fire at two National Guard members near the White House, US President Donald Trump has announced a sweeping immigration decision, stating he intends to “permanently pause migration from all Third World countries.”

The proposed move, if implemented, could significantly affect millions seeking entry into the US for education, work, safety or asylum, and may reshape global migration patterns.

In a sharply-worded post on Truth Social on Thursday, President Trump stated that while the United States has advanced technologically, immigration policies over the years have weakened the country’s progress and impacted living standards.

He wrote: “I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the US system to fully recover, terminate all of the millions of Biden illegal admissions, including those signed by Sleepy Joe Biden’s Autopen, and remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country, end all Federal benefits and subsidies to noncitizens of our Country, denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization.”

According to President Trump, the objective behind the policy is to dramatically reduce what he called “illegal and destabilizing populations.”

He argued that the only effective long-term solution is what he termed “reverse migration.”

Ending his statement, President Trump wrote: “Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation. Other than that, HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL, except those that hate, steal, murder, and destroy everything that America stands for – You won’t be here for long.”

Earlier, US Customs and Immigration Service Director Joseph Edlow said on Thursday that under President Trump’s orders, he has “directed a full-scale, rigorous re-examination of every Green Card for every alien from every country of concern”.

India is not on the list of countries of concern, nor are others from South Asia, except for Afghanistan.

The actions followed Wednesday’s shooting rampage by Rahmanullah Lakanwal near the White House.

One of the National Guard soldiers he shot, Sarah Beckstrom, died on Thursday, while the other is in a critical condition in a hospital.

Lakanwal, who was injured before his capture, is also in hospital.

Soon after the shooting, President Trump said, “We must now re-examine every single alien who has entered our country from Afghanistan”.

Under the broadened scrutiny announced by Eldow, several hundred thousand Green Card holders from the 19 countries will be put under “rigorous re-examination”.

President Trump had put those countries under a watch list in June and restricted the issuing of visas to their citizens, expressing concern over the ability of the US to vet the applicants from there.

The other countries on the list are Burma, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela.

Lakanwal, who had worked with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in Afghanistan, came to the US under programmes to protect Afghans who had cooperated with the US when the Taliban took over.

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Tejas crashes at Dubai Air Show: IAF regrets ‘loss of life’

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New Delhi, Nov 21: In a tragic incident, an Indian Air Force Tejas fighter jet crashed during a demonstration at the Dubai Air Show on Friday, and the pilot lost his life.

Taking it to X, IAF said, “An IAF Tejas aircraft met with an accident during an aerial display at Dubai Air Show, today. The pilot sustained fatal injuries in the accident. IAF deeply regrets the loss of life and stands firmly with the bereaved family in this time of grief.”

It further added that, “A court of inquiry is being constituted to ascertain the cause of the accident.”

The crash occurred during the biennial Dubai Air Show, one of the world’s largest aviation exhibitions. The event has seen major announcements this week.

Notably, this is the second crash involving a Tejas aircraft, the first one being in 2024 near Jaisalmer.

In March 2024, a Tejas fighter went down in Rajasthan’s Jaisalmer, the first such accident in the aircraft’s 23-year history since its maiden test flight in 2001. The pilot ejected safely in that case.

LCA Tejas is a 4.5-generation, all-weather and multi-role fighter aircraft. The aircraft is designed to be a multi-role aircraft capable of taking up offensive air support, close combat and ground attack roles at ease.

It is also designed to undertake ground maritime operations.

At the Dubai Air Show, India and Germany, on November 19, revived high-technology defence collaboration after nearly three decades, with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) signing a landmark contract with German state-backed sensor major HENSOLDT.

The pact, finalised on Day 3 of the event, focuses on the joint development of a cutting-edge LiDAR-based Obstacle Avoidance System (OAS) for Indian military helicopters. This breakthrough has already generated significant buzz across global aerospace circles.

The deal for this LiDAR-based Obstacle Avoidance System (OAS), signed by Indian DPSU Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and German government-backed HENSOLDT, marks a significant return to high-technology cooperation after earlier partnerships in aerospace and maritime programmes.

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