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Turkey further cuts rates, lira dips to new record low

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The Turkish central bank lowered interest rates for the third successive month despite high inflation, causing the embattled national currency lira to sink to new historic lows against the US dollar.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the bank decided during a key meeting to lower the benchmark interest rate to 15 per cent with a cut of 100 basis points.

The bank has previously lowered rates by 300 basis points since August, in line with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s belief that higher interest rates result in higher prices, Xinhua news agency reported.

On Wednesday, ahead of the MPC meeting, Erdogan reiterated his hostility to high rates, vowing in the Parliament that he would battle it “until the end.” Meanwhile, he also vowed to take measures to protect the low-income groups in the face of rising living costs.

Following the MPC’s decision of cutting rate, Turkish lira dipped to a fresh record low of 11.2 against the greenback.

The lira suffered one of its biggest falls of the year on Tuesday, losing about 4 per cent against the dollar, and traded at 10.45 per dollar, four days after it passed the physiological mark of 10 per dollar.

Turkey’s large short-term external debts and low foreign currency reserves mean that it is one of the most vulnerable emerging markets to tighter external financing conditions.

“In the upcoming 12 months period, Turkey has to repay (external) debts amounting to $167 billion, thus it needs foreign currency… in this context, the lira will not be returning to former levels,” independent Economist Mustafa Sonmez told Xinhua.

Many big companies have euro or dollar-denominated loans, and their repayment in the coming months may pose problems with the devaluation of the Turkish currency, analysts warned.

The inflation, which is under 20 per cent annually, the highest rate in years, is causing price increases which in turn results in higher costs for imports, fuel and basic household goods, all of which are now much more expensive.

With the arrival of winter, “the rise in global oil and natural gas prices also increases Turkey’s energy bill,” said Enver Erkan, Chief Economist at Istanbul’s Tera Securities.

Erkan said in a note to investors that the rise in energy bills will in turn increase inflation, giving rise to a vicious circle for households.

During his 19-year rule, Erdogan had offered economic stability to Turks until a currency meltdown in 2018, which resulted in high inflation and unemployment.

The lira has lost 30 per cent of its value since the start of 2021. It has been put under further strain by concerns that the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected.

In a supermarket in the capital city Ankara’s Hilal neighbourhood, young employee Hamit Tekin told Xinhua that he is busy changing price tags on food items the recent days because of the successive price hikes.

“For me, it’s my job, but for clients, it’s a very real burden. Consumers complain about the price hike and the difficulties of making ends meet,” he added.

Business

Sensex, Nifty open marginally lower amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, Sep 19: The Indian benchmark indices opened marginally lower on Friday, with IT stocks leading the losses in early trade.

As of 9.26 am, Sensex was down 241 points or 0.29 per cent at 82,772 and Nifty was down 63 points or 0.25 per cent at 25,360.

The US Federal Reserve resumed interest rates cut cycle by reducing rates by 25 basis points but the outlook on further easing in the months ahead failed to meet the investors’ dovish expectations, while markets awaited more cues into US policy path, according to analysts.

Nifty Midcap 100 inched up by 0.16 per cent, and the Nifty Small cap 100 lost 0.04 per cent.

Hero MotoCorp, Shriram Finance, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, Tech Mahindra were among major gainers on Nifty, while losers were ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consumer and Titan Company.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty IT, the top loser, lost 0.40 per cent. Nifty FMCG and Nifty Private bank also weighed down on the indices. Except Nifty Realty and PSU Bank all other sectoral indices were trading in the red or with marginal gains.

The Nifty50 held firmly above the 25,400 mark in the previous session, signalling investor confidence with upside momentum intact.

Analysts said that while buying interest is visible at lower levels, the 25,500–25,600 zone remains a stiff hurdle on the upside. On the downside, support is placed at 25,300–25,100 for any minor pullback.

“Market is on an uptrend and is well positioned to set new records soon. Fundamentals, technicals and sentiments are favourable for a steady uptrend. Earnings are likely to improve from Q3 onwards. Technically, short covering is happening and can accelerate,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

From the market sentiment perspective, a US-India trade deal without the penal tariff and a lower reciprocal tariff is likely, he added.

Major US indices made gains overnight as the Nasdaq added 0.94 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.48 per cent and the Dow inched up 0.27 per cent.

Most of the Asian markets were trading in the green during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index dipped 0.12 per cent, and Shenzhen advanced 0.23 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.77 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index moved up 0.12 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.46 per cent.

On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 366 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 3,326 crore.

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Business

Stock market rises for 3rd consecutive day on US Fed rate cut, buying in IT sector

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Mumbai, Sep 18: The Indian equity indices extended the gaining momentum for the third consecutive session on Thursday amid buying in IT stocks after the US Fed announced a rate cut.

Sensex closed at 83,013.96, up 320.25 points or 0.39 per cent.

The 30-share index opened with a decent gap-up at 83,108.92 against the last session’s closing of 82,693.71 after the US Fed announced a rate cut. However, the index remained range-bound throughout the session amid a mixed approach across sectors except IT.

Nifty ended the session at 25,423.60, up 93.35 points or 0.37 per cent.

“Global equities traded in the green after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to 4–4.25 per cent and signalled two more reductions this year to cushion rising job market risks. Mirroring the upbeat global sentiment, Indian markets opened with a positive gap-up and maintained a sideways trajectory through the first half of the session,” Ashika Institutional Equities said in a note.

Eternal, Sun Pharma, Infosys, HDFC Bank, PowerGrid, HCL Tech, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel, Axis Bank and Bajaj FinServ settled high amid the Sensex stocks. Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Trent, Ultratech Cement, and Asian Paints ended the session in negative territory.

The majority of sectoral indices remained in green amid value buying. Nifty Fin Services jumped 135 points or 0.51 per cent, Nifty Bank rose 234 points or 0.42 per cent, Nifty Auto moved up 34 points or 0.13 per cent, Nifty FMCG jumped up 201 points or 0.36 per cent, and Nifty IT surged 303 points or 0.83 per cent.

Broader indices continued their bullish run amid buying in midcap and small-cap stocks. Nifty Small Cap 100 jumped 53 points or 0.29 per cent, Nifty Midcap 100 increased 224 points or 0.38 per cent, and Nifty 100 ended the session 91 points or 0.35 per cent high.

“Rupee closed weaker by 0.26 at 88.09 despite the dollar index staying soft post-Fed policy, where a rate cut was announced but forward guidance remained mixed as the roadmap for further cuts was unclear and data-dependent on jobs,” said Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities.

The rupee failed to gain as FII sentiment remained cautious, while ongoing India-US trade talks will be the next key trigger. Support for the rupee lies near 87.75, while resistance is seen at 88.25, he added.

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Business

Fed Finally Cuts Interest Rates, But What’s Next For India’s Markets & Gold Prices?

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Mumbai: The US central bank (Federal Reserve) has cut interest rates for the first time in 2025. This step is expected to support the US economy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the decision was not due to political pressure, even though President Donald Trump had been demanding a rate cut for a long time.

The Fed has also hinted that it may cut rates two more times this year. This is to help the weak US job market. In the recent two-day meeting, almost all Fed members supported the 25 basis points cut. Only one member, Stephen Miran, voted against it.

Stephen Miran works with the White House and was earlier Trump’s economic advisor. He wanted a bigger cut—50 basis points. Trump had promised rate cuts during his election campaign.

New interest rate: 4 percent to 4.25 percent

Repo operation rate: 4.25 percent

Interest on reserve balance: 4.15 percent

Reverse repo rate: 4 percent

Prime credit rate: 4.25 percent

This US rate cut could help Indian markets. Lower US interest rates may push foreign investors to invest in India for better returns. This could lead to growth in the Indian stock market.

Gold may also get a boost. When interest rates fall, investors often look for safer and better returns—like gold. So gold prices might rise further.

The US job market is still weak. Looking at this and other economic risks, more rate cuts may happen in the coming months.

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