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Turkey further cuts rates, lira dips to new record low

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The Turkish central bank lowered interest rates for the third successive month despite high inflation, causing the embattled national currency lira to sink to new historic lows against the US dollar.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the bank decided during a key meeting to lower the benchmark interest rate to 15 per cent with a cut of 100 basis points.

The bank has previously lowered rates by 300 basis points since August, in line with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s belief that higher interest rates result in higher prices, Xinhua news agency reported.

On Wednesday, ahead of the MPC meeting, Erdogan reiterated his hostility to high rates, vowing in the Parliament that he would battle it “until the end.” Meanwhile, he also vowed to take measures to protect the low-income groups in the face of rising living costs.

Following the MPC’s decision of cutting rate, Turkish lira dipped to a fresh record low of 11.2 against the greenback.

The lira suffered one of its biggest falls of the year on Tuesday, losing about 4 per cent against the dollar, and traded at 10.45 per dollar, four days after it passed the physiological mark of 10 per dollar.

Turkey’s large short-term external debts and low foreign currency reserves mean that it is one of the most vulnerable emerging markets to tighter external financing conditions.

“In the upcoming 12 months period, Turkey has to repay (external) debts amounting to $167 billion, thus it needs foreign currency… in this context, the lira will not be returning to former levels,” independent Economist Mustafa Sonmez told Xinhua.

Many big companies have euro or dollar-denominated loans, and their repayment in the coming months may pose problems with the devaluation of the Turkish currency, analysts warned.

The inflation, which is under 20 per cent annually, the highest rate in years, is causing price increases which in turn results in higher costs for imports, fuel and basic household goods, all of which are now much more expensive.

With the arrival of winter, “the rise in global oil and natural gas prices also increases Turkey’s energy bill,” said Enver Erkan, Chief Economist at Istanbul’s Tera Securities.

Erkan said in a note to investors that the rise in energy bills will in turn increase inflation, giving rise to a vicious circle for households.

During his 19-year rule, Erdogan had offered economic stability to Turks until a currency meltdown in 2018, which resulted in high inflation and unemployment.

The lira has lost 30 per cent of its value since the start of 2021. It has been put under further strain by concerns that the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected.

In a supermarket in the capital city Ankara’s Hilal neighbourhood, young employee Hamit Tekin told Xinhua that he is busy changing price tags on food items the recent days because of the successive price hikes.

“For me, it’s my job, but for clients, it’s a very real burden. Consumers complain about the price hike and the difficulties of making ends meet,” he added.

Business

Sensex, Nifty open higher on positive global cues

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Mumbai, Oct 15: Indian stock markets opened on a positive note on Wednesday, taking cues from the upbeat global sentiment.

The Sensex climbed 243 points, or 0.30 per cent, to trade at 82,273, while the Nifty rose 79 points, or 0.31 per cent, to start the day at 25,225.

Commenting on the Nifty’s technical outlook, experts said that though the 20-day SMA stepped in yesterday, to limit the extent of the drop, we prefer to give more weightage to the bearish engulfing pattern, thus acknowledging the prevailing bearish bias.

“Meanwhile, we remain equally prepared to switch sides, if Nifty manages to push beyond 25230. However, we will wait for a break beyond 25330 to play directional upsides,” they added..

Buying was seen across most sectors, with heavyweights like Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, L&T, Power Grid, BEL, Bharti Airtel, Trent, and Asian Paints leading the gains. These stocks moved up by as much as 1.2 per cent in early trade.

However, some pressure was seen in select counters such as Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, Infosys, and Titan Company, which slipped up to 1.2 per cent.

In the broader market, the Nifty MidCap index gained 0.38 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index advanced 0.20 per cent — indicating a positive trend beyond the frontline indices.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty IT and Financial Services rose 0.6 per cent each, while PSU Bank and Realty indices also traded higher — reflecting a broadly optimistic market mood.

Experts said that investors are likely to track global market trends, crude oil prices, and institutional flows for further direction.

“In the current environment of heightened volatility and mixed market cues, traders are advised to maintain a cautious “buy-on-dips” approach, particularly when using leverage,” analysts said.

“Booking partial profits during rallies and maintaining tight trailing stop-losses is recommended to manage risk. Fresh long positions should be considered only if the Nifty sustains above the 25,300 mark,” they added.

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Explained: EPFO overhauls withdrawal rules to boost transparency, ease access for 30 crore members

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New Delhi, Oct 14: The Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has restructured its partial withdrawal regulations, combining 13 distinct clauses into three main categories: Essential Needs, Housing Needs, and Special Circumstances. This change aims to make it easier to access provident fund savings.

For the nearly 30 crore members who collectively own a corpus of about Rs 30 lakh crore, the reform aims to make the withdrawal process quicker, simpler, and more transparent.

The revised framework, referred to as EPFO 3.0, has standardised withdrawal limits.

Depending on the goal, members can now access up to 100 per cent of their eligible provident fund balance, which includes employer and employee contributions. However, at least 25 per cent of the EPF balance needs to stay in the account in order to maintain a safety net for retirement.

This implies that members can keep the required balance while withdrawing up to 75 per cent of their total corpus.

Additionally, the new regulations standardise the requirements for services. In the past, there were specific requirements for each type of withdrawal, such as five years of service for housing purposes and seven years for marriage-related withdrawals.

All partial withdrawals are now subject to a single 12-month minimum service period, which streamlines the procedure and removes any ambiguity.

Members will no longer need to provide documentation of their withdrawals under the “Special Circumstances” category, which is a significant relaxation. In the past, withdrawals under this heading required proof of emergencies, such as natural disasters or job loss.

The new clause, which permits members to leave without giving a reason, is anticipated to reduce red tape and expedite approvals.

The EPFO has also increased the withdrawal limits for marriage and education-related withdrawals. Instead of the previous cap of three combined withdrawals, members can now make up to 10 withdrawals for education and five for marriage.

Stricter guidelines for final settlements are also introduced by the reforms, though. In contrast to the previous two-month eligibility window, members can now only apply for an early final settlement 12 months after quitting their job and for pension withdrawal 36 months later.

In the event of a job loss, the 25 per cent minimum balance requirement only applies to partial withdrawals; it does not apply to full settlements.

While it is anticipated that the simplified framework will increase efficiency and transparency, workers who are laid off or have experienced extended periods of unemployment may find it difficult to obtain their provident fund savings immediately during a time when they may need it most, due to the revised settlement timelines.

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Silver hits record high above $52.50 as safe-haven demand fuel rally

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Mumbai, Oct 14: Silver prices soared to an all-time high above $52.50 an ounce on Tuesday, boosted by a historic short squeeze in London and strong demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainty.

Spot silver rose as much as 0.4 per cent to $52.58 an ounce in London, breaking the previous record set in January 1980 when the billionaire Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.

Gold prices also climbed to a new record, marking eight consecutive weeks of gains, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of US interest rate cuts.

The rally in silver comes amid concerns over liquidity in the London market, which has triggered a worldwide rush to secure the metal.

Prices in London are trading at a rare premium compared to New York, prompting traders to fly silver bars across the Atlantic — a costly move usually reserved for gold — to benefit from higher prices.

The premium stood at around $1.55 an ounce on Tuesday, down from $3 last week.

Adding to the squeeze, silver lease rates in London — the cost of borrowing the metal — surged above 30 per cent for one-month contracts last Friday, making it expensive for traders to maintain short positions.

The situation worsened as strong demand from India in recent weeks further reduced available supply, following earlier shipments to New York amid fears of US tariffs.

Experts said the latest surge in both gold and silver reflects heightened market uncertainty.

Gold prices have jumped nearly 60 per cent this year, crossing the $4,100 mark for the first time, supported by geopolitical tensions, rate-cut expectations, and strong buying by central banks and investors.

Key US economic data such as inflation and retail sales are due later this week, but analysts warn that if the government shutdown continues, the release of these reports — including jobs data — could be delayed.

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