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This is why India’s consumer market is a $1 trillion investment opportunity

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The fundamentals of the Indian economy remain strong, as RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das recently stated. India’s growth rate is among the fastest in the world, retail inflation has moderated, buffer food stocks are abundant, forex reserves are substantial, and the current account deficit is expected to remain “well within sustainable levels.”

Domestic consumption is making a strong comeback, traditionally one of the main drivers of India’s economic growth. This is great news for businesses of all sizes. Simply put, when consumers spend more, businesses have more capital to invest in, and increased liquidity throughout the system energises complementary sectors and higher-end goods and services.

But what is the significance of this surge in domestic consumption?

One, as the festive season approaches, these numbers are likely to rise even more. Between August and November, when sales of everything from two-wheelers to real estate are at their peak, Indian consumers tend to spend more. Given how quickly consumption has recovered, the figures for the next three quarters will likely be even better.

Two, for better or worse, demand continues to drive India’s growth story. In a typical fiscal year, private expenditure accounts for approximately 55 per cent of the total national GDP. Furthermore, it has a significant impact on the next major growth driver, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), which accounts for the money invested by businesses. As a result, strong domestic consumption translates unintentionally into strong economic growth.

Three, rising household consumption will boost demand for goods and services across industries, especially those involving significant amounts of “discretionary” or luxury spending. Product segments influenced by “premiumisation” trends are included in the latter. These include everything from chocolates and alcoholic beverages to laptops and headphones, as well as clothing and cosmetics. In some categories, such as automobiles, demand for premium products has outpaced demand for entry-level variants. In FY22, for example, premium car sales increased 38 per cent year on year, while lower-priced car sales increased only 7 per cent.

Why is luxury spending increasing in India?

Rising consumer incomes and purchasing power are aiding it: average per capita income has already surpassed USD 2,000 and is expected to exceed USD 12,000 by 2047. Furthermore, the rapid growth of the e-commerce sector and digital transactions has increased customer access to the luxury market. Furthermore, as consumers have become more value- and customisation-oriented, previously dominated by HNWIs, premium segments are rapidly diversifying to include Millennials and non-metro consumers. The typical cohort of HNI and NRI customers has also expanded to include affluent middle-class consumers in some segments, most notably luxury housing, due to the proliferation of remote and hybrid working models.

Furthermore, the premium product space is still in its early stages and remains largely untapped. As a result, market participants have numerous opportunities. For example, while the Indian smartphone market fell by 1 per cent year on year in H1CY22, the premium segment increased by 83 per cent. This segment, however, accounts for only 6 per cent of the total smartphone market.

As domestic consumption continues to rise, premiumisation trends will be boosted across other sectors, from quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and home products to hospitality and healthcare. This has happened before. According to Jun Nie and Andrew Palmer’s paper “Consumer Spending in China: The Past and the Future,” the threefold increase in household spending in China between 2000 and 2015 was accompanied by a sevenfold increase in spending on transportation and communication services.

So, where can investors find investment opportunities?

Discretionary consumption and premiumisation will account for a disproportionate share of growth.

Hospitality and tourism players will benefit from increased air travel, increased demand for top-tier hotels and resorts.

The automotive industry’s clientele for premium car models will become more diverse, especially as the EV revolution gains traction.

The prospects for the entertainment sector are just as promising, with people willing to pay for subscription packages and remain loyal customers even in tier-2 and tier-3 cities as long as there is content worth the money.

Companies in real estate, home-related products, and the FMCG personal care space will also benefit greatly.

The key takeaway is that Indian consumer markets will continue to be a key focus area for global public and private equity investors. Existing and new companies will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalisation.

To summarise, domestic demand will likely continue to drive India’s economic growth story, which will be increasingly influenced by the discretionary spending of a growing cohort of “premium” consumers. This trend presents an important opportunity for investors to get a head start on a veritable 21st-century gold rush.

(The views expressed in this article are personal and that of the authors. The authors head AltG, a firm that Offers Proprietary Research That Clients Leverage to Identify and Execute High Growth Capital Allocation Opportunities. You can reach them at ideas@altgind.com)

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PM Modi to inaugurate fifth edition of ‘SEMICON India’ on Sept 17

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New Delhi, Aug 18: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate the fifth edition of SEMICON India 2026 on September 17 here as India seeks to accelerate the development of its domestic semiconductor ecosystem, an official statement said on Tuesday.

The three-day conference and exhibition — themed Silicon to Systems: Building the Ecosystem — will be held between September 17 and September 19 and is being jointly organised by the India Semiconductor Mission (ISM) — under the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) — and global industry association SEMI, the ministry said.

The event is expected to bring together policymakers, global semiconductor companies, industry executives, researchers, academics, start-ups and students to discuss developments across the semiconductor and electronics value chain.

In addition, the Centre recently approved Semicon 2.0 to strengthen the country’s semiconductor manufacturing and supply-chain capabilities.

The government said it is also supporting semiconductor research, innovation and design through access to advanced design tools for more than 332 academic institutions and 105 start-ups.

Moreover, 24 start-ups have been approved under the Design Linked Incentive (DLI) scheme.

However, India’s semiconductor ambitions have gained momentum under the Semicon India Programme with 12 projects approved under Semicon 1.0 to help build a domestic semiconductor ecosystem, according to the ministry.

S. Krishnan, Secretary, MeitY, said the 2026 edition comes at a significant stage in India’s semiconductor journey, noting that three of the 12 projects approved under Semicon 1.0 have commenced commercial production.

“The announcement of Semicon 2.0 with six major pillars further strengthens India’s commitment to build a robust and resilient semiconductor ecosystem,” he said.

Ajit Manocha, President and Chief Executive Officer of SEMI, said India is well positioned to expand its role in the global semiconductor industry through its talent pool, policy support and long-term vision.

Ashok Chandak, President of SEMI India and IESA, said the event reflects India’s efforts to build a comprehensive semiconductor value chain and has become a key platform for collaboration among industry leaders, policymakers, investors and researchers.

Additionally, the exhibition is expected to feature more than 500 exhibitors, including over 240 international companies, with delegations from more than 40 countries.

According to the ministry, the event will also include six country pavilions, 10 state government pavilions, a start-up pavilion, innovation showcase, start-up pitch competition, student hackathon and workforce development pavilion.

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Sensex plunges 493 points, Nifty falls 133 points amid global tensions

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Mumbai, Aug 18: The benchmark indices extended their losses on Tuesday, with the Sensex and Nifty coming under pressure amid heightened geopolitical tensions and weakness in key sectors.

The Sensex fell 493 points, or 0.63 per cent, to 77,235.46, while the Nifty declined 132.75 points, or 0.55 per cent, to 24,154.90.

Commenting on technical outlook, the 24,300 zone is likely to act as the immediate resistance.

“A sustained move above 24,300 could help stabilise the structure and support a recovery towards the 24,400–24,500 region. However, failure to reclaim this level could keep recovery attempts vulnerable to selling pressure,” an analyst stated.

“On the downside, 24,150 remains the immediate support level. A decisive break below 24,150 could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards the 24,000 psychological mark,” as per the market expert.

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Asian Paints and Infosys emerged as the top losers among Nifty constituents. The broader market also remained under pressure, with the Nifty MidCap index declining 0.43 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index ended flat.

Sectorally, Nifty IT, Nifty Realty and Nifty PSU Bank were among the biggest drags on the benchmark indices. In contrast, the Nifty Auto index emerged as the top-performing sector during the session.

Experts said that the market sentiment remained cautious as investors assessed the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions, with selling pressure in IT, realty and PSU banking stocks weighing on the overall market.

“Although domestic fundamentals continue to be supportive, sustained high crude prices and rising input costs could pressure recent earnings upgrades, prompting investors to remain cautious in the near term,” as per the market expert.

Meanwhile, Rupee traded largely flat near 95.67, but the broader weakness continues as the currency faces hurdles in sustaining strength.

“The rupee is expected to trade in the 95.25–95.85 range in the near term,” a market expert noted.

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India-Israel FTA talks to see two more rounds, deal expected to take shape by February 2027: Israeli envoy

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New Delhi, Aug 18: Israel expects two more rounds of negotiations with India on the proposed free trade agreement, with the two sides likely to have greater clarity on the pact by February 2027, Israeli Ambassador to India Reuven Azar said.

In an interaction with media, Azar said the second round of negotiations was held last month, following an agreement on the terms of reference reached at the end of last year.

“We expect to have two more rounds, one in October and probably the last one by February and I think that by then we will know exactly where we stand,” he said.

Asked about the potential benefits of the FTA for both countries, Azar said discussions have so far focused on traditional market access issues, but the negotiations also cover areas such as reciprocal buybacks and cooperation.

He said bridging the gap in market access could be challenging because Israel has already lowered its tariffs and the two markets differ considerably in size.

However, the Israeli envoy identified high-tech cooperation as an area with significant potential for expanding bilateral economic ties.

“The greatest potential, I think, lies in high-tech cooperation,” he told media.

Azar further noted that greater innovation cooperation between the two countries could encourage Israeli companies to operate more freely in the Indian market.

The envoy’s comments come amid efforts by India and Israel to deepen their economic and technology partnership.

Earlier in May, Azar highlighted six core values underpinning the bilateral relationship — civilisational resilience, the fight against terrorism, democratic values, innovation & competitiveness, religious tolerance, and inclusive development.

India and Israel share a special and unique relationship and stressed the need to translate their common values into greater cooperation and investment, according to his video shared on X.

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