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Telecom industry to witness healthy revenue growth in FY23

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Tariff hikes as well as continued increase in data usage is expected to accelerate telecom industry’s revenue growth in FY23.

The sector has been saddled with debt due to complications such as the ‘Adjusted Gross Revenue’ (AGR) case verdict, which brought in a huge immediate liability on the books of telecom operators.

“While the pandemic had a bad influence on the other sectors, surprisingly, it turned out to be a boon for the telecom sector as corporates were dependent on telecom operators for the smooth running of their operations,” Brickwork Ratings (BWR) said in a report.

“This eventually helped in steady growth in the sectors’ key metrics such as the ‘ARPU’ and ‘MOU’.”

According to the report, the difficult situation for the sector may ease in future as tariff hikes and a continued increase in data usage to result in increased revenue by 6-8 per cent in FY22.

Besides, the subscriber shift towards the 4G network is imminent due to higher need on account of work and education being done from home, which will in turn, lead to an increase in the companiesa¿ total revenues.

Notably, the wireless data usage on average increased by 37 per cent YoY n Q2FY22.

Furthermore, the report cited that the recent hike in tariff plans by 20-22 per cent would help improve the sector’s viability.

“The telecom sector in India is dominated by three major players and is highly competitive in nature, thus making price hikes an uncommon event. However, the recent tariff hikes would help increase the APRU of the telecom operator, deal with the financial crisis and enable investment for the 5G network.”

“However, the flipside is that price hikes may hinder the movement of subscribers to 4G from 2G.”

At present, around 44 per cent of the telecom subscribers are from rural areas, and hence, price hikes could discourage the increased usage of the telecom services.

Moreover, it pointed out that due to the pandemic, educational institutions and NGOs largely depend on telecom operators for reach, which may not be as much after the lockdown is lifted, which is imminent with increased vaccine coverage.

In addition, the agency expects the EBITDA margins of the telcos to improve in FY22 on account of tariff hikes and increased data usage.

“The tariff hikes of 20-22 per cent in November 2021 would lead to an increase in FY22 revenues, the full effect of which would be seen in FY23.”

“The costs for telecom operators are also expected to reduce, given the revision in the definition of the AGR and other reliefs announced by the government.”

Recently, the Department of Telecommunications has already released bank guarantees of Rs 9,200 crore deposited earlier by the telecom operators, thereby improving the liquidity available to them and reducing finance costs.

“This, coupled with the increase in revenue, would help boost the sector’s overall profitability.”

Business

FPI selling stands at Rs 53,337 crore in Oct so far amid elevated crude oil prices

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As long as Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, there will be pressures on the economy and the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to sell the dip, analysts said on Sunday.

The total FPI selling in October stands at Rs 53,337 crore so far, and the net FPI investment through the IPO market during this period stands at Rs 5,281 crore.

“The total FPI selling through the exchanges for this year stood at Rs 3,69,164 crore,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.

On the flows front, FIIs remained net sellers for the 10th straight week. For the week ended October 23, FIIs significantly reduced their selling and even turned buyers on two days.

The moderation in US bond yields with the 10-year yield declining from 5.36 per cent to around 5 per cent, appreciation in the rupee to 94.94 to the dollar and the low valuations, particularly of the large-caps, contributed to the moderation in FII selling.

Going ahead, the steady moderation in FII selling offers some comfort, though elevated crude and sharp broader-market weakness keep the downside risk alive.

A significant market trend during the week was the sharp correction in the mid-and small-caps.

The Nifty Mid-cap 100 plunged 5.6 per cent and the Nifty Small-cap 100 crashed 7.3 per cent during the week while the Nifty 50 was relatively resilient with a cut of only 2.35 per cent.

Forced liquidation in the margin-funded long positions in the broader market is rumoured to have triggered the crash in the broader market, said analysts.

The resilience of the large-caps is mainly due to the accumulation of the fairly valued large-caps by the DIIs which are flush with funds.

The high crude prices is acting as a strong headwind for the economy and market, said analysts.

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Business

Gold, silver decline sharply on weekly basis as crude prices rise

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Gold prices dipped 3.28 per cent on a weekly basis, while silver prices declined 7.83 per cent this week, as rising crude oil prices heightened inflation fears.

The rising inflation concerns reinforced expectations that global interest rates will stay higher for longer, prompting a wave of selling across precious‑metals markets.

On Friday, MCX gold futures expiring December declined 0.81 per cent while MCX silver futures for December shed 1.75 per cent. Gold futures stood at Rs 1,42,150, while silver futures stood at Rs 1,96,100 per kg.

Gold saw its steepest weekly decline since June and slipped below the psychologically important $4,000 per ounce level for the first time since mid-July, analysts said.

The selloff in silver intensified over weakness in US technology stocks, particularly AI-linked companies, which triggered margin calls and forced investors to liquidate precious-metal holdings.

Meanwhile, crude oil surged to multi-month highs following renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping routes, while the Indian rupee surrendered its early-week gains amid rising oil prices and renewed dollar demand.

However, lower prices encouraged physical gold purchases in India during the Dussehra festival, providing some underlying demand support, while Chinese jewellery demand remained subdued.

Market participants forecast that precious metals could remain under pressure if elevated energy prices reinforce inflation concerns and expectations of tighter monetary policy. However, physical demand and any moderation in bond yields could offer support following the recent correction, they said.

Markets largely expect the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the October 27–28 policy meeting, but expectations of another rate hike in December remain elevated, with traders pricing approximately a 78 per cent probability.

Investors are also awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures report next week for additional guidance on inflation and future interest-rate decisions.

Immediate resistance for Comex Gold is placed at $4,070–$4,100 zone, while support lies at $3,970–$4,000 zone, analysts said.

For MCX Gold, immediate resistance is placed at Rs 1,43,000–Rs 1,43,700 zone, while the support lies at Rs 1,40,000–Rs 1,41,000, they added.

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ED raids Hyderabad firms in Rs 326 crore bank fraud probe

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The Directorate of Enforcement (ED), Hyderabad Zonal Office, on Friday conducted search operations at seven premises across Hyderabad, Secunderabad and Medchal-Malkajgiri in Telangana under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), an official statement said on Saturday.

The raids targeted the registered office of M/s Kanakadhara Ventures Pvt. Ltd. (KVPL), the residences of its directors, and premises linked to entities and individuals alleged to have acted as conduits for the diversion of bank funds.

The searches form part of an ongoing investigation into the alleged “misutilisation” and diversion of credit facilities sanctioned to KVPL and its directors, the ED statement said.

The ED case stems from an FIR dated December 8, 2022, registered by the Central Bureau of Investigation, Bank Securities and Fraud Branch (BS&FB), Bangalore, on a complaint from Punjab National Bank.

The FIR alleges offences under Sections 120-B, 420, 468 and 471 of the Indian Penal Code, and provisions of the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988.

According to the agency, a consortium of banks led by Punjab National Bank — comprising IDBI Bank, Union Bank of India, Andhra Bank (now UBI) and Bank of Baroda — suffered a loss of Rs 326.49 crore.

ED investigations revealed that Bank Guarantee and Letter of Credit facilities granted to KVPL were misused. Funds were allegedly diverted through related and conduit entities on the strength of fabricated steel purchase invoices and transport documents.

The company is also accused of operating bank accounts outside the consortium arrangement without the knowledge of the lending banks, the statement said.

During the searches, officials seized incriminating documents, digital devices and other records related to the diversion and layering of funds. Unaccounted cash amounting to Rs 15 lakh was also recovered.

Multiple immovable properties and investments linked to the case have been identified.

ED said further investigation is underway.

The coordinated action underscores the agency’s continued focus on tracing the proceeds of bank frauds and cracking down on complex money-laundering networks involving corporate entities.

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