Business
Sunflower oil prices to burn a hole if Russia-Ukraine crisis blows up
Indian sunflower oil makers are hoping that the war-like situation between Russia and Ukraine resolves smoothly soon so that the edible oil shipments resume soon from the latter, said senior industry officials.
They also said if the shipments do not come from Ukraine, then Russia and Argentina are there as alternate sources and there may not be any major impact on the retail prices of sunflower oil.
But if there is a war between Russia and Ukraine, then the former may block the latter’s shipments. And if there are sanctions against Russia, then it will be a double whammy for India, the industry officials said, expressing hope that the situation doesn’t develop so.
“India imports about two lakh ton per month of sunflower seed oil and at times it goes up to three lakh tons per month. India is dependent on edible oil imports to the tune of about 60 per cent. Any global development will have an impact,” Sudhakar Desai, President, Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association (IVPA), told IANS.
According to Desai, Indian importers can look at alternate sources like Russia and Argentina.
Like Ukraine, Russia is also a major grower of sun flower and producer of sun seed oil.
“Seventy per cent of India’s sunflower oil imports is from Ukraine, 20 per cent from Russia and 10 per cent from Argentina,” Sandeep Bajoria, CEO, Sunvin Group, a research consultancy in vegetable oils, oilseeds trade and industry, told IANS.
He said Ukraine produces about 170 lakh tons of sunflower seeds, Russia about 155 lakh tons and Argentina about 35 lakh tons.
The oil yield will be about 42 per cent when crushed, Bajoria added.
“The price of oil sold by these two countries – Ukraine and Russia – is almost the same. The global price ranges about $1,500-$1,525 per ton,” Desai, also the CEO of Emami Agrotech Ltd, said.
Noting that there is sufficient stock of sunflower oil in India for the next two months, he said that for the past 20 days shipments from Ukraine were getting delayed and the vessels were getting bunched up.
“If the Russia-Ukraine trouble continues for two/three more weeks, then there will be pressure on the Indian market as the oil stock will not get replenished. We expect 1.5 lakh-2 lakh ton of sunflower seed oil imports between February-March from Ukraine,” Desai said.
According to Bajoria, not a single shipment of sunflower oil has left Ukraine in February.
South India is the major market for sunflower oil.
According to the Indian Embassy in Ukraine, India’s bilateral trade turnover was $2.52 billion in 2019-20 (exports were $463.81 million and imports were $2,060.79 million).
Major exports from India are pharmaceutical products, reactors/boiler machinery, mechanical appliances, oil seeds, fruits, coffee, tea, spices, iron, steel and others.
From Ukraine, the major export to India is sunflower oil, followed by inorganic chemicals, iron and steel, plastics, chemicals, and others.
India is Ukraine’s largest export destination in the Asia-Pacific and the fifth largest overall export destination, the Indian Embassy said.
Business
Uttar Pradesh moving from local to global: Piyush Goyal

New Delhi, Aug 3: Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Monday said that Uttar Pradesh is steadily transforming from a local economic powerhouse into a global growth engine, driven by the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
Highlighting the impact of India’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Goyal said the state’s leading sectors are gaining greater access to international markets, creating new opportunities for exporters, artisans, farmers and manufacturers.
“Uttar Pradesh moving from local to global. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Uttar Pradesh is reaching new heights of development,” Goyal said in a post on social media platform X.
He emphasised that trade agreements signed by India are helping connect the state’s products and industries with international markets.
The minister noted that Uttar Pradesh’s key manufacturing and traditional sectors are benefiting from expanding export opportunities.
Kanpur’s renowned leather industry, which has long been a major contributor to the state’s economy, is expected to gain wider access to overseas markets through India’s trade partnerships.
Goyal also highlighted Noida’s rapidly growing electronics manufacturing sector, saying that global market access created through FTAs is opening new possibilities for exporters and manufacturers in the region.
Noida has emerged as one of the country’s major electronics production hubs and is playing an increasingly important role in India’s export ecosystem.
Apart from industrial products, traditional handicrafts from Saharanpur are also poised to benefit from greater international demand.
The minister said artisans and small businesses engaged in the handicrafts sector could access new markets abroad as trade barriers are reduced through various agreements.
Agricultural producers in western Uttar Pradesh are also expected to gain from the expanding trade landscape.
“Through Free Trade Agreements, Kanpur’s leather, Noida’s electronics, Saharanpur’s handicrafts, and agricultural products from Western Uttar Pradesh are gaining new opportunities in global markets,” he mentioned.
Business
RBI’s 3-day MPC meeting begins today; all eyes on repo rate decision

Mumbai, Aug 3: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting — led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra — begins on Monday with investors and economists closely tracking the central bank’s assessment of inflation, economic growth and the future interest rate trajectory ahead of the policy decision due on August 5.
The policy announcement is expected to provide cues on the outlook for interest rates, liquidity conditions and the broader economy amid an uncertain global environment.
Many analysts expect the six-member MPC to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent after maintaining the status quo in its June meeting.
According to SBI Research, the RBI is likely to leave policy rates unchanged as consumer price inflation is expected to remain above 5 per cent over the next two quarters, while domestic economic activity has shown signs of strengthening.
The report said Q1 FY27 GDP growth could exceed 7 per cent, higher than earlier estimates.
It further stated that an explicitly dovish message from the central bank appears unlikely in view of oil price volatility, pressure on the rupee and caution over external capital flows.
However, the report noted that domestic fundamentals have improved helped by strong capital inflows in July, a recovery in foreign exchange buffers, better monsoon conditions and near-normal reservoir levels.
Additionally, at its previous policy review in June, the RBI had unanimously retained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and kept its policy stance neutral.
The central bank also revised its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent amid geopolitical tensions.
Markets will also closely watch the RBI’s commentary on inflation risks, growth prospects and global developments for signals on the future course of monetary policy.
Business
Sensex, Nifty surge up to 1 pc in early trade as lower crude, FII buying boost sentiment

Mumbai, Aug 3: Indian equity markets traded higher on Monday as benchmarks rallied up to 1 per cent in morning trade, supported by broad-based buying across banking, FMCG and metal stocks amid easing crude oil prices, sustained monsoon progress and renewed foreign fund inflows.
Sensex surged 800 points or 1.02 per cent to an intraday high of 78,895.10 in early deals, while Nifty climbed 192.85 points or 0.79 per cent to 24,576.45.
Sector-wise, FMCG, metal, cement and banking shares led gains, with Nifty FMCG, Nifty Metal, Nifty Chemicals, Nifty Cement, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Private Bank indices rising up to 1 per cent.
However, media, pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks remained under selling pressure, with Nifty Media, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare falling up to 1.6 per cent.
Broader markets also witnessed buying interest, with Nifty Microcap 500 and Nifty Smallcap 100 advancing about 1 per cent.
According to analysts, the market appears poised for a breakout above the 24,500 level on the Nifty, aided by falling crude oil prices, favourable monsoon progress and foreign institutional investors turning net buyers.
Resilient economic growth despite global headwinds, credit growth running above 18 per cent, healthy automobile sales and better-than-expected first-quarter earnings indicate that FY27 earnings growth could surpass earlier estimates, they said.
The market experts further noted that strong inflows through FCNR(B), ECB and OFCB routes have helped stabilise the rupee, facilitating the return of foreign investors.
From a derivatives perspective, Nifty’s near-term trading range remains well defined. Significant ‘PUT’ open interest around the 24,400 strike continues to provide a strong support base, while heavy ‘CALL’ writing near 24,600 is expected to cap near-term upside, according to the experts.
Meanwhile, the immediate support is placed at 24350, backed by a concentration of PUT open interest, indicating that traders expect Nifty to remain largely range-bound.
A sustained hold above 24,350 would support a mildly bullish bias, while a break below that level could weaken sentiment.
Meanwhile, Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — plunged more than 5 per cent to $83.31 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined nearly 7 per cent to $78.78 a barrel which also provided further support to market sentiment.
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