Business
Slow recovery of low income households slowed down India’s economic recovery
The slow economic recovery of the low income households post Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the overall economic recovery of the country, said Kotak Securities Ltd.
In a research report, Kotak Securities said, post Covid-19 pandemic, India’s economic recovery seems to be lukewarm on a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis.
The major economic parameters reveal slow post-pandemic recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP), goods and services tax (GST) collections, electricity demand, credit growth and auto sales growing somewhat slowly as against the expectations.
Kotak Securities attribute the weaker-than-expected recovery to the slow ‘repair’ in the income of low-income households.
“It may take a few more quarters for growth to recover to full potential,” the report said.
India’s 1QFY23 GDP grew at 1.3 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite growing 13.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY).
According to the report, the survey-based employment data suggests that India has not completely recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic.
“While formal job creation has been robust, the employment conditions remain frail in the lower-income groups, as employment-seeking under MNREGA is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels,” the report said.
It may take a few more quarters for employment and income to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
The six month GST collections in FY23 logged a growth of 13.8 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.
The high wholesale price index (WPI) in the last couple of years may have helped higher GST collections in this period. The expectation is that the WPI will sharply trend lower over the next several months.
Collections have grown at a higher pace than nominal GDP growth rate (9.5 per cent on a three-year CAGR), suggesting some widening of the tax base.
On the industrial growth front, India’s indicators look rosy on a yoy basis but lose their sheen when examined on a three-year CAGR basis.
In particular, diesel consumption in 5MFY23 declined by 0.4 per cent and electricity demand grew at 4.7 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.
Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has seen a muted 2.2 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite strong government and household investment.
Household investment in real estate was a key driver, seeing a 14 per cent three-year CAGR in major cities, while the Central government capex increased at 23 per cent three-year CAGR. As such, industrial production and private-sector investment are yet to show a meaningful recovery.
Private consumption has not seen much of a recovery, with private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growing at 3.2 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis, Kotak Securities said.
The shallowness of the recovery is prominent in the automobile sector, especially in two wheelers as their sales volumes have declined at six per cent CAGR over the past three years (5MFY23 over 5MFY20), while hatchback (entry segment) volumes have increased at 3.2 per cent CAGR in the same period.
Air passenger traffic has also not seen a complete recovery in 5MFY23.
“We note that retail credit growth has been resilient at 15.3 per c ent CAGR, but not enough to pick up the slack in overall bank credit growth,” Kotak Securities said.
Business
Sensex may face resistance at 76,300, Nifty support seen at 23,600: Analysts

Mumbai, July 26: The benchmark equity indices are likely to remain under pressure in the coming week, with the Sensex facing immediate resistance around the 76,300 level and the Nifty expected to find crucial support near 23,600 after both indices extended losses in a volatile trading week marked by rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions and weak banking stocks, analysts said on Sunday.
According to experts, the Sensex surrendered the gains made in the previous week and slipped below the psychologically important 77,000 mark as geopolitical concerns and earnings-related pressures weighed on investor confidence.
“From a technical perspective, the 76,300 zone now acts as immediate resistance. On the downside, the 75,800–75,700 zone is likely to offer immediate support; a break below could open the door towards 75,500–75,400,” a market expert mentioned.
For the Nifty, analysts said the index slipped below the lower end of its month-long consolidation band of 23,800-24,400 and tested support near the rising trendline around the 23,600 level before ending the week at 23,767.45.
“A decisive breach below the 23,600 support zone could accelerate the correction towards the previous swing low of 23,100. On the upside, the 24,000–24,100 region is expected to act as the first resistance, followed by a stronger hurdle around the 24,400 mark,” a market expert mentioned.
Meanwhile, in the previous week, the Indian stock market witnessed heightened volatility as investors turned cautious amid a spike in global crude oil prices and renewed geopolitical uncertainties.
Mixed first-quarter earnings from banking companies further weighed on sentiment, while a weakening rupee and a broader risk-off mood restricted buying despite resilient domestic macroeconomic indicators and stock-specific opportunities emerging during the ongoing earnings season.
The Sensex fell 2.68 per cent over the week to settle at 76,059.77, while the Nifty declined 2.33 per cent to close at 23,767.45.
Business
Govt earmarks Rs 2,010 crore to boost judicial infra, eCourt modernisation

New Delhi, July 26: The government has allocated Rs 2,010 crore to boost judicial infrastructure and digitisation of courts, including necessary training and capacity building programmes.
According to Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal, under the Centrally Sponsored Scheme (CSS) for Development of Infrastructure Facilities for the District and Subordinate Courts, a sum of Rs 810 crore has been allocated in the Union Budget 2026 for judicial infrastructure.
In addition, sum of Rs 1,200 crore has been allocated in the Budget for the eCourts Project Phase-III being implemented for digitisation of courts including necessary training and capacity building programmes, he said in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha.
Adequate budgetary provisions are made under these Schemes based on approved outlays and availability of funds.
“However, the expeditious disposal of cases depends on multiple factors including complexity of case, quality of investigation, availability of relevant evidence and presentation thereof by the Advocates, timely delivery of the court processes, active participation of the parties, judicial procedures, etc,” said the minister.
The government, in coordination with states and the judiciary, has taken several measures to ensure accessible, speedy and effective justice across the country.
Meanwhile, a Centrally Sponsored Scheme to set up Fast Track Special Courts (FTSCs), including exclusive POCSO (ePOCSO) courts was launched in October 2019, for the expeditious trial and disposal of pending cases related to rape and offences under the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences (POCSO) Act, 2012.
The scheme was extended twice, with the last extension valid up to March 31, 2026 for establishment of 790 FTSCs. The scheme has been temporarily extended upto September 30, 2026.
As per the information made available by the High Courts, as of April 30, 775 FTSCs, including 398 exclusive POCSO (e-POCSO) Courts were functional in 29 States/UTs, informed the minister.
Business
HDFC Bank shares fall over 1 pc as US law firms launch securities probe

New Delhi, July 24: Shares of India’s largest private sector lender, HDFC Bank, fell more than 1 per cent in early trade on Friday after three US law firms announced separate investigations into whether the bank may have violated federal securities laws.
The investigations were announced by the Law Offices of Howard G. Smith, the Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz and Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter through separate press releases.
According to the law firms, the investigations are focused on whether HDFC Bank and certain of its executives made materially misleading statements or failed to disclose information relevant to investors, potentially violating US federal securities laws.
The probes stem from a May 27 report by The Indian Express — which alleged that HDFC Bank made payments of about Rs 45 crore (Rs 450 million or around $4.7 million) to the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) to attract large institutional deposits.
The report also alleged that the payments were booked as marketing expenses and that the bank’s Chief Executive Officer was aware of them.
According to the law firms, HDFC Bank’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) fell $1.02, or 4.1 per cent, to close at $23.78 on May 27 following the publication of the report.
The firms have invited investors who suffered losses in HDFC Bank ADRs to contact them and share relevant information as they assess whether there are sufficient grounds to pursue securities-related claims.
However, no securities class action lawsuit has been filed against HDFC Bank at this stage. The investigations are preliminary and are intended to determine whether legal action is warranted.
However, the lender has not issued any statement on the matter to the stock exchanges — the NSE and the BSE — till 10:30 am.
On Friday, HDFC Bank shares fell as much as 1.44 per cent during early trade on the BSE. The stock has declined more than 25 per cent over the past one year, nearly 20 per cent in the last six months, and around 25 per cent so far this calendar year.
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