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RBI to cut policy repo rate by 25 bp on Dec 5: HSBC

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New Delhi, Dec 1: Since inflation is set to remain well below target for the foreseeable future, HSBC Global Investment Research on Monday projected that the RBI will cut rates by 25 bp during its monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on December 5 — taking the policy repo rate to 5.25 per cent.

Growth has been strong so far, benefitting from the front loading of government spending and GST-cut led retail spending.

However, the November Flash manufacturing PMI (56.6) indicated that GST-led boost may have peaked with the overall new orders coming in soft, said the report.

“Growth is strong for now, but could soften in the March 2026 quarter as the fiscal impulse becomes contractionary and exports slow. We expect the RBI to ease policy rates in the upcoming December policy meeting,” the report mentioned.

The July-September quarter GDP growth came in at 8.2 per cent YoY, higher than 7.8 per cent in the previous quarter and higher than “our above-consensus forecast of 7.5 per cent”. While GVA growth came in at 8.1 per cent, nominal GDP grew 8.7 per cent.

The GDP momentum was clearly higher than our above-consensus forecast. There are some good reasons for the strength, said the report.

One, GST rate cuts were implemented on the September 22, but the announcement was made on August 15.

“We think that production picked up in anticipation of a rise in consumer demand. Two, our recent work indicates that lower income states are starting to rise, even growing faster than the higher income states,” the HSBC report mentioned.

This, too, could possibly explain the strength in India’s growth momentum. After all, national GDP is the sum of state Gross State Domestic Products (GSDP).

According to the report, India’s growth has held up decently despite the 50 per cent reciprocal tariff on India’s exports by the US since August.

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New excise duty, health cess on cigarettes, pan masala to begin from Feb 1

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New Delhi, Jan 31: From February 1, the government is bringing a new tax structure for cigarettes, tobacco products and pan masala, aiming to tighten regulation and keep tax levels high on these so-called ‘sin goods’.

An additional excise duty will now be charged on cigarettes and tobacco products, along with a new health and national security cess on pan masala.

These new levies will replace the earlier system under which these products were taxed at 28 per cent GST along with a compensation cess that has been in place since the launch of GST in July 2017.

The government is also introducing a new MRP-based valuation system for several tobacco products such as chewing tobacco, filter khaini, jarda scented tobacco and gutkha.

Under this system, GST will be calculated based on the retail price printed on the packet, instead of factory value.

This move is expected to reduce tax evasion and improve revenue collection. Pan masala manufacturers will now have to take fresh registration under the new health and national security cess law starting February 1.

They will also be required to install CCTV cameras that cover all packing machines and store the video recordings for at least two years.

In addition, companies must inform excise authorities about the number of machines in their factories and their production capacity.

If any machine remains non-functional for 15 days in a row, manufacturers will be allowed to claim a reduction in excise duty for that period.

Even after the new changes, the government has ensured that the overall tax burden on pan masala, including 40 per cent GST, will remain around the current level of 88 per cent.

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Indian stock markets gain this week ahead of Budget 2026

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Mumbai, Jan 31: The Indian equity benchmarks gained around 1 per cent during the week, though the trading sessions were volatile but with a cautiously constructive tone amid mixed global cues and rising geopolitical tensions.

Risk appetite weakened toward the end of the week ahead of the Union Budget 2026-27, with volatility resurfacing amid sustained FII outflows and rupee depreciation leading to losses in the last trading session.

Nifty added 1.09 per cent during the week and dipped 0.39 per cent on the last trading day to 25,320. At close, Sensex was down 296 points or 0.36 percent at 81,537. It added 0.90 per cent during the week.

Sectoral indices traded mixed this week with diversified consumer services stocks and hardware tech stocks logging the worst-performance, dipping 2.5 to 3.7 per cent. FMCG, media and software stocks slide over 1 per cent.

Metal stocks as well as oil and gas were the top weekly gainers up over 2 per cent, however Nifty metal index plummeted over 5 per cent on the last trading session. Profit booking also intensified in IT amid a firmer dollar and global liquidity concerns, and caution over incoming Fed Chair, analysts said.

Select pockets of weakness were observed in autos and beverages amid intensifying competitive pressures.

Broader indices posted stronger gains during the week, with the Nifty Midcap100 up 2.25 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 gained 3.2 per cent.

The markets opened the week with a subdued sentiment due to renewed tariff-related concerns and mixed corporate earnings, although optimism surrounding the India–EU trade agreement lent support, particularly to trade-oriented sectors.

Market sentiment improved mid-week following a favourable economic survey that reinforced expectations of robust FY27 growth and a benign inflation outlook.

Analysts said that markets remain wary that a potentially stronger inflation focus could prolong tight financial conditions and weigh on emerging markets.

Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain largely event-driven, with the Union Budget acting as the key domestic trigger, they said.

Cyclical sectors may continue to show relative resilience if supported by policy measures, while IT and export-oriented stocks are likely to remain sensitive to global macro cues, analysts added.

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Centre’s fertiliser supplies to states scale record high of 530 lakh metric tons in April-December

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New Delhi, Jan 30: Fertiliser movement from the Centre to the states on Indian Railways, during the first nine months (April-December) of the financial year 2025-26, reached an all-time high with total supplies crossing 530.16 lakh metric tons to surpass the 500 lakh metric ton mark for the first time during this period, an official statement said on Friday.

This represents a 12.2 per cent increase over the corresponding period of FY 2024–25 and is 8.5 per cent higher than the previous record of FY 2023–24, it said.

The Centre has ensured sufficient availability of all major fertilisers across states, including the supply of 350.45 lakh metric tons of urea, against a requirement of 312.40 lakh metric tons in the first nine months (April-December) of the financial year 2025-26. Similarly, in the case of major P&K (phosphorous and potassium) fertilizers including DAP, MOP & NPKS, the total supply reached 287.69 lakh metric tonnes against the requirement of 252.81 lakh metric tonnes, consistently exceeding the assessed requirement and ensuring uninterrupted availability, the statement said.

Faster and smoother movement of fertiliser rakes enabled timely supplies to states, ensuring that farmers did not face any shortages during the critical stages of cultivation. Department of Fertilisers worked in close cooperation with the Ministry of Railways and stated that such coordinated efforts have helped ensure adequate availability of fertilisers across the country, the statement added.

During this period, average rake loading on Indian Railways increased to 72 rakes per day in July 2025, rose to 78 rakes per day in August 2025 and reached 80 rakes per day in September 2025, according to the official figures.

Urea rake movement rose to 10,841 rakes, registering an 8 per cent increase over last year, while P&K fertilisers recorded 8,806 rakes, marking an 18 per cent growth. Enhanced coordination with the Ministry of Railways, ports, state governments, and fertiliser companies ensured seamless and timely supply to states during peak agricultural seasons, the statement said.

Ensuring the timely availability of fertilisers to farmers has remained one of the government’s highest priorities. In this direction, the improved coordination between the Ministry of Railways and the Department of Fertilisers during Kharif 2025 and the ongoing Rabi season was clearly visible at the ground level. The states also took concerted measures to ensure last-mile availability to farmers, the statement added.

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