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RBI likely to go for steps to spur growth in February monetary policy review: Jefferies

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Mumbai, Jan 29: The RBI’s monetary policy committee meeting scheduled for February is likely to spring some positive surprises with a growth-favoured approach, according to brokerage firm Jefferies.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policies can take a growth-supportive turn, especially with the government expected to take a tight fiscal stance on February 1, Jefferies said in a note.

The recent move by the central bank to provide liquidity is a positive indicator, the report said. It was referring to the RBI’s announcement this week that it would inject Rs 1.5 lakh crore liquidity into the banking system in the coming weeks till the end of February.

If the RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra-led committee takes a potentially dovish stance on liquidity or rates, the rupee may depreciate further, Jefferies observed in its note.

“Our cautious view on the budget is predicated on an expected slowdown in government capex.” But the stock corrections largely build in those worries, it said. A high base in revenues and the government’s firmness on fiscal consolidation will likely limit any significant spending growth, Jefferies said.

On the slowdown in economic growth, most of the reasons are temporary. The March quarter should be better with the significant underspending in eight months of fiscal 2025 expected to reverse from November 2024 to March 2025, the brokerage said.

Further, a potential improvement in liquidity and regulations can prompt some uptick in the months ahead, it added.

The pressures to increase expenditure on social welfare schemes are rising and there are some expectations of a hike in corporate taxes. If neither were to happen, the market may be relieved, Jeffries said.

The RBI had, in its monetary policy review on December 6, slashed the cash reserve ratio (CRR) for banks by 0.5 per cent to make more funds available for lending to spur economic growth but kept the key policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent with an eye on inflation.

The CRR was reduced from 4.5 per cent to 4 per cent. This was the first time since March 2020 that the CRR has been cut. The CRR is the proportion of deposits that banks have to set aside as idle cash in the system.

The CRR cut infused Rs 1.16 lakh crore into the banking system and was aimed to bring down market interest rates to spur growth.

The RBI on Monday announced that it would inject another Rs 1.10 lakh crore liquidity in the banking system through open market purchase auctions of Government securities and carrying out a variable rate repo auction. Besides, a $5 billion dollar-rupee swap auction would also be held to provide more liquidity in the system. These measures are aimed at making more funds available to banks for giving out loans and bringing down the interest rate as part of the measures to spur growth in an economy that has been slowing economy amid geopolitical uncertainties.

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Panic Buying In Palghar Amid Fuel Shortage Rumours: Long Queue Seen At Petrol Pump Along Mumbai-Ahmedabad Highway

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Palghar: Long queues of vehicles, especially two-wheelers, were seen at petrol pumps along the Mumbai-Ahmedabad National Highway amid rumours of a fuel shortage. The motorists claimed that they were waiting for more than an hour to refill their vehicles.

the scenes were captured at the Asian Petrol Pump in Charoti, where long queues of vehicles stretched outside the fuel station as residents feared limited fuel availability. Not just this, the report also claimed that several petrol pumps across Palghar district reportedly witnessed similar crowds, with panic buying increasing after rumours of fuel supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, the alleged rumours triggered people amid Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent appeal to citizens to reduce fuel consumption and adopt sustainable practices to help the country manage global economic disruptions.

Earlier on May 15, a similar scene was witnessed along the Maharashtra-Gujarat border, where long queues of vehicles were seen at several petrol pumps, as people rushed to fill petrol and diesel before the revised fuel rates came into effect. Visuals showed all kinds of vehicles, including trucks, cars, motorcycles and other commercial vehicles, lined up outside fuel stations, leading to heavy rush and congestion near the pumps.

Meanwhile, a similar incident was reported in Akola, where a scuffle broke out among farmers at a petrol pump over alleged fuel unavailability. Visuals showed several men fighting while standing in a crowded queue at the fuel station.

On May 10, PM Modi appealed to people to increasingly use public transport systems, including metro services, and adopt environmentally responsible practices to reduce pressure on fuel consumption and foreign exchange outflows.

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Maharashtra seeks FIRs against Ola, Uber, Rapido over alleged illegal bike taxi operations

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New Delhi, May 16: Maharashtra Transport Minister Pratap Sarnaik has directed the Cyber Crime department to lodge FIRs against Ola, Uber and Rapido over alleged illegal bike taxi operations in the state.

The minister further clarified that app-based mobility platforms Ola, Uber and Rapido continue to operate in the state as we sought legal action against their alleged unauthorised bike taxi services.

The clarification came after reports circulated on social media claiming that the services of Ola, Uber and Rapido had been completely shut down in Maharashtra.

In a post on X, the Directorate General of Information and Public Relations (DGIPR), Maharashtra, said such reports were misleading and stated that the government’s action is limited only to illegal bike taxi operations.

“The claim circulating on social media that all services of Ola, Uber, and Rapido have been completely shut down in Maharashtra is misleading,” it said.

“The transport department has taken a strict stance against unauthorised bike taxi services operating illegally in the state,” DGIPR added.

According to the state government, Sarnaik has written to the Cyber Crime department requesting immediate action against unauthorised bike taxi app services operating through the three platforms.

The minister also asked the department to file FIRs against the companies over the alleged operations.

“Transport Minister Sarnaik has written to the cyber-crime department demanding the immediate shutdown of unauthorised bike taxi app services like Ola, Uber and Rapido and the filing of FIRs against the respective company owners,” it stated.

“At the same time, the Transport Commissioner has also sent a letter to the Cyber Crime department in this regard,” it added.

However, there is no official comment on the development from the companies yet.

Bike taxi services have repeatedly faced regulatory challenges in Maharashtra over concerns related to legality, licensing norms and compliance with transport regulations.

App-based mobility operators offering two-wheeler taxi services have also encountered policy-related hurdles in the state in the past, as authorities continue to examine the framework governing such operations.

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Fuel price rise likely provides Rs 52,700 crore relief to OMCs: Report

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New Delhi, May 16: The recent retail fuel price increase of Rs 3 per litre will trim mounting losses at oil marketing companies and provide up to Rs 52,700 crore worth of relief in their under‑recoveries, a report said on Saturday.

The report from SBI Research said that the relief is equal to roughly 15 per cent of the expected total loss of OMCs in FY27.

Under‑recoveries on petrol and diesel have surged because retail prices were kept unchanged amid rising Brent crude, with the government estimating OMC losses at about Rs 1,000 crore per day and roughly Rs 3.6 lakh crore a year.

The report said the fuel price hike is unlikely to reduce annual oil consumption, as historical patterns showed consumption dips immediately after price hikes but recovers over the year.

“Further, immediate impact on CPI inflation is likely around 15-20 bps in May-June 2026. So, we revise our FY27 forecast to 4.7 per cent. There is no direct impact of this hike on the fiscal situation,” the report noted.

Notably, the government has earlier reduced the excise duty by Rs 10 on diesel and petrol during the year to help

The OMCs for which the revenue loss for the centre is estimated as Rs 1.1 lakh crore.

A similar rationalisation of excise to zero to aid OMCs would cost the centre about Rs 1.9 lakh crore and states about Rs 80,000 crore.

The report flagged that a further depreciation of the rupee could negate the intended benefits, saying that an additional depreciation of Rs 2 from the FY27 average of Rs 94 to the dollar would fully offset the gains from the domestic fuel price revision.

“The rupee has already approached a critical depreciation threshold, beyond which further currency weakness could substantially erode the intended benefits of domestic fuel price revisions,” it explained.

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