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Primary market scenario post April 2022

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The world has been affected by Covid-19 for over 24 months now. However, capital markets used this opportunity and had a fantastic run during the same whether it be secondary markets or for that matter primary markets. A striking feature of primary market offerings during calendar year 2021 was the fact that the bulk of the offerings, as much as roughly 80 per cent was offer for sale. This OFS was dominated by PE investors who took advantage of the markets and sold their stake at unbelievable valuations. This was also the period when tech platform companies and new age companies hit the market. As usual, the market had its fair share of successes and failures.

The driving force behind the listing gains was the oversubscription witnessed across companies barring a handful. This oversubscription came at a cost- the cost of funding the application and this got built into the listing price. This gave a feeling that the issue did well post listing. In reality, most of these companies have lost sharply from their highs and have given up a large part of their gains. Physical events of companies launching their roadshows had stopped and they had become digital with Zoom webinars being the way. This system had its advantages and disadvantages with time to complete being reduced to just one day. Further it gave an unfair advantage to merchant bankers and promoters as conferences were conducted behind an effective censor board in the form of a moderator and tough questions being simply avoided.

An interesting incident was in the Zomato digital event where the company made its entire presentation in US dollars forgetting the basic fact that in an Indian issue, the currency of subscription is Indian Rupees. Fortunately, no other such event has happened thereafter thankfully.

Let us move to April 2022. The scenario has changed completely. There are new regulations imposed by RBI and SEBI. RBI has introduced a ceiling on the amount of money that can be lent by an NBFC against application at an upper cap of Rs 1 crore. This means every HNI can borrow just one crore each. This would mean in simple terms that the HNI portion which has seen oversubscriptions of 200-600 times would just not happen. The method of controlling this lending would be the PAN card. The second thing would be that this oversubscription came at a cost. The cost of funding. When there is no leveraging, there is no cost of funding. This would have a dramatic impact on the unofficial but rampant grey market. Premiums there would crash and the obnoxious returns made on listing would simply vanish. This would put pressure on subscriptions from other categories as well. The day when an IPO for Rs 1,000 crore garnered subscription across categories of Rs 40,000-60,000 would just stop.

SEBI has split the HNI bucket of 15 per cent into two with the first bucket of 5 per cent for application between 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs. The remaining 10 per cent is for applications which are greater than Rs 10 lakhs. The allotment in these categories in case of oversubscription would be on basis of lots like retail. This implies that allotment would be uniform to all applicants of the base lot size which would be Rs 2 lakhs and 10 lakhs as the case maybe on basis of lottery. In case of undersubscription, allotment would be on normal basis where the applicant would get shares on the basis of his subscription.

The other major change is with respect to anchor allocation and lock-in. Half the shares allotted to anchors would be locked for 30 days while the balance half would be locked in for 90 days. This would make anchor investors seek comfort on the pricing of IPO’s and indirectly seek comfort that the issue is reasonably priced so that they do not go under during the mandatory lock-in period.

Let us look at the HNI bucket with an example. For assumption we take a size of the primary offering which could include fresh issue and offer for sale of Rs 1,000 crore. Fifty per cent of the issue would be for QIB’s, 15 per cent for HNI’s and the balance 35 per cent for retail. Of the 50 per cent for QIB’s, 60 per cent would be for anchors. In this example, Rs 300 crore would be for anchors with Rs 150 crore of shares being locked in for the customary 30 days and balance Rs 150 crore for the new period of 90 days. Any anchor would now take a view that his invested price or issue price should not go below the issue price in 90 days. This would give additional comfort to other investors hopefully.

HNI bucket of 5 per cent for Rs 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs would mean Rs 50 crore. This would require 2,500 applications of Rs 2 lakhs to be subscribed on lots. The larger bucket of 10 per cent or Rs 100 crore would require 1,000 applications of Rs 10 lakhs to be subscribed. When the allotment is capped at this system unlike the earlier proportionate, many large applications would be deterred until and unless on the last day just before closing time there is a feeling that the issue may not get subscribed in the HNI category. Then people would look at the issue and make larger applications than 10 lakhs.

In the new scheme of things there would be two major factors which would see a change. The first is subscription levels where three-digit subscription levels in HNI category would be a thing of the past. Second would be as far as premiums are concerned. They would fall significantly as there is no logical cost of interest which could decide the logical premium. The impact of these two factors combined should put pressure on pricing by merchant bankers and promoters.

As an analyst, a person like me would be very happy that management and merchant bankers would now have to justify valuations rather than take the easy way out of suggesting that there is a 50-60 per cent grey market premium. If you feel the price is high, sell in the grey market.

Interesting times ahead for primary markets which will learn to evolve with these changes as well.

Business

Gold, silver trade up to 1 pc lower amid elevated US yields, geopolitical tensions

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Mumbai, Sep 29: Gold and silver prices traded lower on Tuesday with precious metals declining up to 1 per cent amid elevated US yields and uncertainty over the US-Iran standoff which weighed on bullion sentiment.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (December) were trading at Rs 1,48,410 per 10 grams, down Rs 487 or 0.33 per cent.

The yellow metal declined as much as 0.50 per cent or Rs 747 to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,48,150 by 10:34 am. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,49,034, up 0.09 per cent or Rs 137.

On the other hand, silver futures (December) fell as much as 1.29 per cent or Rs 2,942 to hit an intraday low of Rs 2,24,500 per kg.

At the last count, the white metal was trading at Rs 2,25,338, down Rs 2,104 or 0.93 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 2,26,359, down 0.47 per cent or Rs 1,083.

The selling pressure in precious metals came amid elevated tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz which kept energy prices higher.

Spot gold was also trading lower after falling 4 per cent in the previous session to a seven-week low.

Iranian officials reportedly have privately expressed pessimism about reaching an agreement with Washington to end hostilities before the US midterm elections in November.

The developments came after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the critical waterway within seven days.

The uncertainty has kept energy prices elevated while higher US yields have added pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

According to commodity experts, immediate resistance for gold is placed at Rs 1,50,000-1,50,700, followed by Rs 1,52,000-1,52,600, while support is seen at Rs 1,48,000-1,47,300, followed by Rs 1,46,000-1,45,300.

However, the near-term bias remained cautious, with a sustained move above Rs 1,50,000 needed to confirm a recovery. A decisive break below Rs 1,48,000 could trigger another decline.

For silver, the experts said the metal opened with a gap-down near Rs 2,26,000 and remained below the Rs 2,27,000-2,28,000 zone, which has turned into resistance following Monday’s steep decline.

Immediate resistance for silver is seen at Rs 2,27,000-2,28,000, followed by Rs 2,32,000-2,33,000. Support is placed at Rs 2,24,000-2,23,000, followed by Rs 2,20,000-2,19,000.

The bias for silver remained cautious to negative, with a sustained move above Rs 2,28,000 needed to stabilise the setup. A decisive break below Rs 2,24,000 could expose the metal to the Rs 2,20,000 region.

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From Assam’s fields to Lay’s packets: Himanta Sarma highlights Rs 778 crore investment

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Guwahati, Sep 29: Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Tuesday highlighted the growing investment and employment opportunities in the state, citing a Rs 778 crore investment and the expansion of local value chains from agricultural produce to consumer products.

Taking to social media platform X, CM Sarma said the growth of investment in Assam was creating more opportunities for local employment and enabling products originating in the state to reach markets beyond its borders.

“It grows with opportunity ₹778 Cr investment, more local employment opportunities,” CM Sarma said in his post. Highlighting the connection between agriculture and industry, the Chief Minister said the journey of a potato grown in Assam’s fields to a packet of Lay’s available on consumers’ shelves represented the kind of economic opportunity the state was seeking to create.

“From a potato growing in our fields to a packet of Lay’s on your shelf. That’s what opportunity looks like – Made in Assam, reaching beyond Assam,” he said.

The post underlined the state government’s emphasis on strengthening local production and creating an ecosystem in which agricultural output can feed into large-scale processing and manufacturing.

The Rs 778 crore investment highlighted by CM Sarma is also significant in the context of Assam’s efforts to attract private investment and expand employment opportunities outside traditional sectors.

The government has been promoting the state as an emerging investment destination, with a focus on manufacturing, food processing, infrastructure and other industries.

The Chief Minister’s remarks also pointed to the potential of linking Assam’s farmers with organised food-processing and consumer-product supply chains. Such linkages can create additional avenues for value addition within the state while enabling locally produced agricultural commodities to access wider markets.

The reference to Lay’s reflects the broader idea of converting locally grown agricultural produce into branded consumer products, thereby creating economic activity at multiple stages, from farming and procurement to processing, packaging, logistics and retail.

CM Sarma’s post comes amid the state government’s continued efforts to project Assam as a destination for investment and industrial development. The government has repeatedly stressed the need to generate more local employment while ensuring that the benefits of industrial growth reach communities and producers within the state.

The Chief Minister said the larger objective was to ensure that opportunities created in Assam were not confined to the state but enabled locally produced goods to reach consumers across the country and beyond.

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CBDT extends tax audit deadline to Oct 21, taxpayers can file returns till Nov 21

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New Delhi, Sep 28: The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has extended the due date for furnishing Return of Income for assessment year (AY) 2026-27 from October 31 to November 21 for persons subject to audit under the Income-tax Act, 1961, according to an official statement issued on Monday.

Accordingly, the ‘specified date’ for furnishing the audit report also stands extended from September 30 to October 21, the statement said.

A formal notification to this effect is being issued separately, the statement added.

The demand for an extension had gathered momentum in recent weeks, with several chartered accountant associations and tax professionals seeking that the deadline be pushed to October 31. Tax professionals had also raised concerns over the time required to complete audit procedures, verify disclosures, and reconcile information available across various tax and financial records.

The extension will give taxpayers and their auditors more time to complete the audit process and furnish the required report on the income-tax e-filing portal and is expected to facilitate the ease of doing business.

Meanwhile, the government’s net direct tax collection has recorded a robust 13 per cent growth to surpass the Rs 12.12 lakh crore mark between April 1 and September 17 of the current financial year compared to the same period of the previous financial year, according to official data.

Gross direct tax collections ⁠rose over 15 per cent year-on-year basis to Rs 14.3 lakh crore during the same period, the figures showed.

Corporate tax mop-up grew 19.48 per cent to about Rs 5.56 lakh crore, while personal income tax and collection from Hindu undivided families increased 6 per cent to over Rs 6.16 lakh crore. Securities Transactions Tax (STT) collection jumped 53 per cent to Rs 40,214 crore between April 1 and September 17 compared to the same period of the previous year.

Refund issuance surged by over 29 per cent to cross Rs 2.2 lakh crore during this period, the data further showed.

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