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Primary market scenario post April 2022

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The world has been affected by Covid-19 for over 24 months now. However, capital markets used this opportunity and had a fantastic run during the same whether it be secondary markets or for that matter primary markets. A striking feature of primary market offerings during calendar year 2021 was the fact that the bulk of the offerings, as much as roughly 80 per cent was offer for sale. This OFS was dominated by PE investors who took advantage of the markets and sold their stake at unbelievable valuations. This was also the period when tech platform companies and new age companies hit the market. As usual, the market had its fair share of successes and failures.

The driving force behind the listing gains was the oversubscription witnessed across companies barring a handful. This oversubscription came at a cost- the cost of funding the application and this got built into the listing price. This gave a feeling that the issue did well post listing. In reality, most of these companies have lost sharply from their highs and have given up a large part of their gains. Physical events of companies launching their roadshows had stopped and they had become digital with Zoom webinars being the way. This system had its advantages and disadvantages with time to complete being reduced to just one day. Further it gave an unfair advantage to merchant bankers and promoters as conferences were conducted behind an effective censor board in the form of a moderator and tough questions being simply avoided.

An interesting incident was in the Zomato digital event where the company made its entire presentation in US dollars forgetting the basic fact that in an Indian issue, the currency of subscription is Indian Rupees. Fortunately, no other such event has happened thereafter thankfully.

Let us move to April 2022. The scenario has changed completely. There are new regulations imposed by RBI and SEBI. RBI has introduced a ceiling on the amount of money that can be lent by an NBFC against application at an upper cap of Rs 1 crore. This means every HNI can borrow just one crore each. This would mean in simple terms that the HNI portion which has seen oversubscriptions of 200-600 times would just not happen. The method of controlling this lending would be the PAN card. The second thing would be that this oversubscription came at a cost. The cost of funding. When there is no leveraging, there is no cost of funding. This would have a dramatic impact on the unofficial but rampant grey market. Premiums there would crash and the obnoxious returns made on listing would simply vanish. This would put pressure on subscriptions from other categories as well. The day when an IPO for Rs 1,000 crore garnered subscription across categories of Rs 40,000-60,000 would just stop.

SEBI has split the HNI bucket of 15 per cent into two with the first bucket of 5 per cent for application between 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs. The remaining 10 per cent is for applications which are greater than Rs 10 lakhs. The allotment in these categories in case of oversubscription would be on basis of lots like retail. This implies that allotment would be uniform to all applicants of the base lot size which would be Rs 2 lakhs and 10 lakhs as the case maybe on basis of lottery. In case of undersubscription, allotment would be on normal basis where the applicant would get shares on the basis of his subscription.

The other major change is with respect to anchor allocation and lock-in. Half the shares allotted to anchors would be locked for 30 days while the balance half would be locked in for 90 days. This would make anchor investors seek comfort on the pricing of IPO’s and indirectly seek comfort that the issue is reasonably priced so that they do not go under during the mandatory lock-in period.

Let us look at the HNI bucket with an example. For assumption we take a size of the primary offering which could include fresh issue and offer for sale of Rs 1,000 crore. Fifty per cent of the issue would be for QIB’s, 15 per cent for HNI’s and the balance 35 per cent for retail. Of the 50 per cent for QIB’s, 60 per cent would be for anchors. In this example, Rs 300 crore would be for anchors with Rs 150 crore of shares being locked in for the customary 30 days and balance Rs 150 crore for the new period of 90 days. Any anchor would now take a view that his invested price or issue price should not go below the issue price in 90 days. This would give additional comfort to other investors hopefully.

HNI bucket of 5 per cent for Rs 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs would mean Rs 50 crore. This would require 2,500 applications of Rs 2 lakhs to be subscribed on lots. The larger bucket of 10 per cent or Rs 100 crore would require 1,000 applications of Rs 10 lakhs to be subscribed. When the allotment is capped at this system unlike the earlier proportionate, many large applications would be deterred until and unless on the last day just before closing time there is a feeling that the issue may not get subscribed in the HNI category. Then people would look at the issue and make larger applications than 10 lakhs.

In the new scheme of things there would be two major factors which would see a change. The first is subscription levels where three-digit subscription levels in HNI category would be a thing of the past. Second would be as far as premiums are concerned. They would fall significantly as there is no logical cost of interest which could decide the logical premium. The impact of these two factors combined should put pressure on pricing by merchant bankers and promoters.

As an analyst, a person like me would be very happy that management and merchant bankers would now have to justify valuations rather than take the easy way out of suggesting that there is a 50-60 per cent grey market premium. If you feel the price is high, sell in the grey market.

Interesting times ahead for primary markets which will learn to evolve with these changes as well.

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Sensex, Nifty trade muted in early deals amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, May 27: Domestic equity markets traded on a muted note in early deals on Wednesday amid mixed global cues and a decline in crude oil prices.

Sensex was trading at 76,050, up 40 points or 0.05 per cent in the morning session, while Nifty rose 20 points or 0.08 per cent to 23,932. Earlier, the benchmark indices opened at 75,939.86 and 23,880.35, respectively.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Metal emerged as the top gainer, climbing 1.59 per cent, followed by Nifty Cement, which advanced 0.83 per cent. Nifty Media, Realty and Consumer Durables also traded higher, rising up to 0.67 per cent.

On the other hand, Nifty Oil & Gas was the top loser, falling 0.66 per cent. While private banks, financial services and IT indices also traded in the red, declining up to 0.33 per cent.

Among Nifty stocks, selling pressure was visible in select heavyweight counters, with Coal India dropping over 4 per cent and ONGC slipping nearly 3 per cent. HDFC Bank, Infosys and Wipro also remained under pressure.

Meanwhile, the volatility index India VIX gained 0.68 per cent to trade around 16.

According to analysts, the near-term market tone remains cautious but stable, as recent profit booking at higher levels indicates some consolidation after the sharp recovery phase.

“Despite intermittent weakness, controlled volatility and balanced market breadth suggest that broader sentiment has not deteriorated significantly,” they added.

Meanwhile, Iran on Tuesday accused the United States of violating the ceasefire by carrying out strikes near the disputed Strait of Hormuz, while Washington maintained that the attacks were defensive in nature.

In the commodity market, crude oil prices declined, with international benchmark Brent crude falling 1.73 per cent to $97.85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped over 2 per cent to $91.87 per barrel.

In Asia, markets traded mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined nearly 1 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI rose up to almost 5 per cent.

Overnight in the US, Wall Street ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.61 per cent and the Nasdaq closing 1.19 per cent higher.

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Indian equity markets trade flat after fresh US strikes in Iran

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Mumbai, May 26: Indian equity markets traded flat in morning trade on Tuesday after fresh US strikes in southern Iran targeting boats attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites.

In early trade, Sensex was at 76,339.29, down 150 points or 0.20 per cent, while Nifty slipped 45 points or 0.19 per cent to 23,986.40. Earlier in the day, the benchmark indices opened at 76,224.14 and 24,004.10, respectively.

Among sectoral indices, IT, chemicals, media, PSU banks and metal stocks traded in positive territory.

Nifty IT rose 0.61 per cent, while Nifty Chemicals gained 0.58 per cent and Nifty Media advanced 0.54 per cent.

On the downside, consumer durables, healthcare, cement and realty indices were under pressure. Nifty Consumer Durables emerged as the top sectoral loser, falling 0.57 per cent, while Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Cement and Nifty Realty declined up to 0.3 per cent.

From the Nifty basket, InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) declined over 1 per cent, emerging as one of the top laggards on the benchmark indices. Other notable losers included SBI Life Insurance Company, Max Healthcare Institute, Titan Company, Bharti Airtel, Eternal Ltd and Trent, which fell up to 1 per cent.

In the broader market, small-cap and mid-cap indices outperformed. Nifty Smallcap 100 climbed 0.59 per cent, while Nifty Midcap 150 gained 0.13 per cent.

Meanwhile, the volatility tracker India VIX slipped 1.43 per cent.

Market experts said that despite ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the West Asia conflict, there are no indications of an immediate resolution.

They noted that the recent US “self-defence strikes” in southern Iran have temporarily dampened sentiment, although markets are not viewing the development as the beginning of another phase of military escalation.

According to experts, investor risk appetite remains strong, with markets rallying whenever there are signs of easing tensions and a decline in crude oil prices.

“The sharp rally in the previous session reflected optimism about the resilience of the domestic economy,” they added.

However, experts believe that a resolution of the conflict and a further decline in crude oil prices could help ease macroeconomic pressures facing the economy.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose, with international benchmark Brent crude gaining 1.17 per cent to $98.39 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed more than 3 per cent to $93.90 per barrel.

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CNG Prices Hiked Again By ₹2: Have Rates Increased In Mumbai Too? Find Out Here

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Mumbai: CNG consumers have received temporary relief as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) prices in the city have not been increased despite another fuel hike announced in Delhi and the NCR on Tuesday.

While Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) raised CNG prices in Delhi by Rs 2 per kg, taking rates to Rs 83.09 per kg from May 26, Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) has kept CNG prices unchanged across Mumbai and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR).

This means CNG in Mumbai continues to remain priced at Rs 84 per kg, following the earlier hike implemented by MGL earlier this month. The latest Delhi revision marks the fourth CNG price increase in less than two weeks amid rising global energy prices and pressure on domestic fuel retailers.

Although there has been no fresh hike in Mumbai today, auto-rickshaw unions in the city have already renewed their demand for a fare revision after the previous Rs 2 per kg increase announced by MGL on May 14.

Mumbai’s auto unions have argued that rising fuel costs and inflation have increased operating expenses for drivers. Union representatives recently met transport department officials and submitted revised fare calculations based on recommendations of the B Khatua Committee.

At present, the minimum auto-rickshaw fare in Mumbai stands at Rs 26, while passengers are charged Rs 17.14 per kilometre after the base fare. According to union calculations, the per-kilometre fare should now increase to Rs 18.17.

“The expenses on fuel have increased substantially for auto-rickshaw drivers. Inflation and higher Consumer Price Index levels have also affected daily running costs,” Mumbai Rickshawmen’s Union General Secretary Thampi Kurien had said while demanding a fare hike.

The latest developments come at a time when petrol and diesel prices have witnessed repeated hikes across the country over the past two weeks, increasing concerns over transportation costs and inflationary pressure in Mumbai and other metro cities.

Despite today’s relief for Mumbai commuters, transport operators and auto unions are closely monitoring fuel pricing trends amid fears that further increases in global crude oil and gas prices could eventually impact CNG rates in the city as well.

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