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Primary market scenario post April 2022

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The world has been affected by Covid-19 for over 24 months now. However, capital markets used this opportunity and had a fantastic run during the same whether it be secondary markets or for that matter primary markets. A striking feature of primary market offerings during calendar year 2021 was the fact that the bulk of the offerings, as much as roughly 80 per cent was offer for sale. This OFS was dominated by PE investors who took advantage of the markets and sold their stake at unbelievable valuations. This was also the period when tech platform companies and new age companies hit the market. As usual, the market had its fair share of successes and failures.

The driving force behind the listing gains was the oversubscription witnessed across companies barring a handful. This oversubscription came at a cost- the cost of funding the application and this got built into the listing price. This gave a feeling that the issue did well post listing. In reality, most of these companies have lost sharply from their highs and have given up a large part of their gains. Physical events of companies launching their roadshows had stopped and they had become digital with Zoom webinars being the way. This system had its advantages and disadvantages with time to complete being reduced to just one day. Further it gave an unfair advantage to merchant bankers and promoters as conferences were conducted behind an effective censor board in the form of a moderator and tough questions being simply avoided.

An interesting incident was in the Zomato digital event where the company made its entire presentation in US dollars forgetting the basic fact that in an Indian issue, the currency of subscription is Indian Rupees. Fortunately, no other such event has happened thereafter thankfully.

Let us move to April 2022. The scenario has changed completely. There are new regulations imposed by RBI and SEBI. RBI has introduced a ceiling on the amount of money that can be lent by an NBFC against application at an upper cap of Rs 1 crore. This means every HNI can borrow just one crore each. This would mean in simple terms that the HNI portion which has seen oversubscriptions of 200-600 times would just not happen. The method of controlling this lending would be the PAN card. The second thing would be that this oversubscription came at a cost. The cost of funding. When there is no leveraging, there is no cost of funding. This would have a dramatic impact on the unofficial but rampant grey market. Premiums there would crash and the obnoxious returns made on listing would simply vanish. This would put pressure on subscriptions from other categories as well. The day when an IPO for Rs 1,000 crore garnered subscription across categories of Rs 40,000-60,000 would just stop.

SEBI has split the HNI bucket of 15 per cent into two with the first bucket of 5 per cent for application between 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs. The remaining 10 per cent is for applications which are greater than Rs 10 lakhs. The allotment in these categories in case of oversubscription would be on basis of lots like retail. This implies that allotment would be uniform to all applicants of the base lot size which would be Rs 2 lakhs and 10 lakhs as the case maybe on basis of lottery. In case of undersubscription, allotment would be on normal basis where the applicant would get shares on the basis of his subscription.

The other major change is with respect to anchor allocation and lock-in. Half the shares allotted to anchors would be locked for 30 days while the balance half would be locked in for 90 days. This would make anchor investors seek comfort on the pricing of IPO’s and indirectly seek comfort that the issue is reasonably priced so that they do not go under during the mandatory lock-in period.

Let us look at the HNI bucket with an example. For assumption we take a size of the primary offering which could include fresh issue and offer for sale of Rs 1,000 crore. Fifty per cent of the issue would be for QIB’s, 15 per cent for HNI’s and the balance 35 per cent for retail. Of the 50 per cent for QIB’s, 60 per cent would be for anchors. In this example, Rs 300 crore would be for anchors with Rs 150 crore of shares being locked in for the customary 30 days and balance Rs 150 crore for the new period of 90 days. Any anchor would now take a view that his invested price or issue price should not go below the issue price in 90 days. This would give additional comfort to other investors hopefully.

HNI bucket of 5 per cent for Rs 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs would mean Rs 50 crore. This would require 2,500 applications of Rs 2 lakhs to be subscribed on lots. The larger bucket of 10 per cent or Rs 100 crore would require 1,000 applications of Rs 10 lakhs to be subscribed. When the allotment is capped at this system unlike the earlier proportionate, many large applications would be deterred until and unless on the last day just before closing time there is a feeling that the issue may not get subscribed in the HNI category. Then people would look at the issue and make larger applications than 10 lakhs.

In the new scheme of things there would be two major factors which would see a change. The first is subscription levels where three-digit subscription levels in HNI category would be a thing of the past. Second would be as far as premiums are concerned. They would fall significantly as there is no logical cost of interest which could decide the logical premium. The impact of these two factors combined should put pressure on pricing by merchant bankers and promoters.

As an analyst, a person like me would be very happy that management and merchant bankers would now have to justify valuations rather than take the easy way out of suggesting that there is a 50-60 per cent grey market premium. If you feel the price is high, sell in the grey market.

Interesting times ahead for primary markets which will learn to evolve with these changes as well.

Business

Bioplastics can become Maharashtra’s next Rs 25,000 crore growth engine

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Mumbai, July 3: In a major push to tackle plastic pollution and position Maharashtra as a green manufacturing hub, the MahaYuti government has approved the Maharashtra Bioplastics Policy 2026, aimed at promoting bioplastics manufacturing through a comprehensive package of incentives and dedicated funding.

The policy, which will remain in force from 2026 to 2031, seeks to transform Maharashtra into a national hub for bioplastics manufacturing, research, innovation and exports. The government expects the initiative to attract investments worth Rs 25,000 crore, create 1.31 lakh direct and indirect jobs, and generate an estimated Rs 30,039 crore in revenue.

The policy also targets the creation of 2 lakh tonnes per annum (TPA) of PLA and biopolymer production capacity, reducing the state’s dependence on imported PLA by 50 per cent

Additionally, Maharashtra aims to replace 30 per cent of single-use plastics in selected sectors with compostable alternatives, achieve $1 billion in exports, and integrate 1 lakh farmers into the bioplastics value chain.

The state Cabinet has approved a total outlay of Rs 10,892 crore, including Rs 782 crore during the first five years and Rs 10,110 crore over the subsequent 20 years. A provision of Rs 50 crore has been made for 2026-27 under the Package Scheme of Incentives.

Government sources said rising concerns over conventional plastic waste, microplastics, marine pollution and greenhouse gas emissions have necessitated policy intervention to promote bio-based and biodegradable alternatives. While the global bioplastics market is expanding rapidly, India currently accounts for just 0.46 per cent of global output. It remains heavily dependent on imports of key biopolymers such as Polylactic Acid (PLA).

Maharashtra enjoys several competitive advantages, including its leadership in sugarcane, sugar and ethanol production, which provides abundant feedstock such as corn, bagasse and molasses. Coupled with a strong chemicals industry, premier research institutions and logistics infrastructure anchored by the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA), the state is well positioned to develop a robust bioplastics ecosystem. The urgency of the shift is underscored by the generation of nearly 3.96 lakh tonnes of plastic waste in the state during 2022-23.

The policy covers the entire value chain, from raw material processing and production of PLA, PHA, PBS and other biopolymers to compounding, end-product manufacturing, testing facilities, composting and certification services. All eligible units will be required to obtain BIS/ISO 17088 certification or equivalent standards recognised by the Central Pollution Control Board.

Key focus areas include standards and certification, cluster-based industrial parks, common facility centres, research and centres of excellence, skill development, support for MSMEs and startups, increased participation of women and rural youth, and promotion of foreign investment and exports. The government also plans to establish two Centres of Excellence to foster innovation and technology development. Only Greenfield (new) investments and dedicated Brownfield expansions for bioplastics will be eligible.

To attract large-scale investments, Maharashtra will offer a tiered incentive framework, including special benefits for the first two anchor projects involving investments of Rs 3,000 crore or more. These projects will be eligible for capital subsidies of up to 30 per cent of fixed capital investment over 10 years, 100 per cent SGST reimbursement for 12 years, full electricity duty waivers and stamp duty exemptions, among other incentives.

Additional benefits include export incentives, reimbursement of employers’ provident fund contributions, and support for adoption of green technologies. Similar incentives will be available to the first 10 eligible large, mega and MSME units. Standalone R&D facilities will receive financial assistance of up to 50 per cent, subject to a ceiling of Rs 25 lakh.

The policy also provides an additional “green incentive” for units adopting zero liquid discharge systems, renewable energy and circular economy practices, reinforcing Maharashtra’s ambition to emerge as a leading sustainable manufacturing destination.

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Adani Group emerges as investor magnet after Rs 38,000 crore demand for AEL QIP offering

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Ahmedabad, July 3: Global institutions and India’s largest mutual funds have backed multiple Adani Group companies, marking a sharp turnaround in investor sentiment.

Adani Group has emerged as one of the biggest draws for institutional investors over the past year, attracting around Rs 40,000 crore of fresh equity into its flagship company alone while also seeing marquee global and domestic investors increase their exposure across several listed entities.

Adani Enterprises Ltd (AEL) this week upsized its qualified institutional placement (QIP) to Rs 15,000 crore after receiving bids worth about Rs 38,000 crore, or 3.8 times the base issue size. The fundraising comes less than a year after the company’s Rs 25,000 crore rights issue, taking its total equity capital raised over the past year to about Rs 40,000 crore.

The latest offering attracted some of the world’s largest institutional investors, including Capital Group, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Blackstone, and Nomura. Domestic participation was equally broad-based, with HDFC Mutual Fund, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, Kotak Mutual Fund, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund, SBI Mutual Fund and Tata Mutual Fund among the investors.

People familiar with the transaction said the order book was fully covered before the issue formally opened, with bankers describing investors as “clamouring for allocations.” The company launched the QIP with a base size of Rs 10,000 crore before increasing it to Rs 15,000 crore on the back of strong demand.

The fundraising is the latest sign of a sharp shift in investor sentiment toward the Adani Group. After a period when Adani stocks were among the least preferred by several institutional investors, they have become some of the most sought-after names among both global funds and domestic asset managers.

Over the past year, leading institutional investors have participated in fundraisings and secondary transactions across companies including Adani Power, Adani Ports & SEZ, Adani Energy Solutions and Adani Green Energy, alongside Adani Enterprises. The lineup of investors has consistently featured some of the world’s largest asset managers and nearly every major domestic mutual fund, reflecting growing conviction in the group’s long-term investment pipeline.

The latest demand also comes despite a US federal judge pausing the formal dismissal of criminal charges against the Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani and directing the Department of Justice to justify its decision to withdraw the case. The strong institutional participation suggests investors have remained focused on the group’s operating businesses, capital allocation, and growth prospects.

Adani Enterprises, the group’s flagship incubator, is expanding businesses spanning airports, AI and data centres, solar and wind equipment manufacturing, roads, PVC, metals and mining. A day before the QIP, the company announced an $11.5 billion investment with IHC to establish India’s largest aluminium manufacturing project, marking the biggest foreign direct investment announced in India’s metals and mining sector.

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Sensex, Nifty open nearly 1 pc higher; IT, metal stocks drive rally

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Mumbai, July 3: Indian equity markets opened higher on Friday amid mixed global cues, with benchmark indices rising nearly 1 per cent each as buying was led by IT, metal, pharma and chemical stocks.

Sensex began session at 78,152.34, up 650 points or 0.84 per cent, while Nifty opened around 200 points or 0.83 per cent higher at 24,375.65.

Sector-wise, Nifty IT surged nearly 2 per cent, while Nifty Metal gained 1.66 per cent. Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom, Chemicals and Pharma indices advanced over 1 per cent, 0.82 per cent and 0.72 per cent, respectively.

In contrast, the Nifty PSU Bank index declined 0.87 per cent.

Among Nifty 50 constituents, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV), NTPC, SBI and Axis Bank were the top losers.

The broader market remained firm, with Nifty Smallcap 50 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices rising 0.48 per cent and 0.46 per cent, respectively. Nifty 100 gained 0.46 per cent, while Nifty 500 advanced 0.41 per cent.

India VIX — the volatility index — fell 1.62 per cent to 12.09.

According to market experts, the near-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

For the Nifty, sustained strength above the 24,000 mark keeps the broader trend positive, with immediate resistance seen at 24,300, followed by 24,450, they said.

On the downside, 24,050 remains a key support level, while a breach could trigger a corrective move towards 23,900.

They added that investors should remain watchful of the ongoing global technology sell-off, as renewed weakness in semiconductor stocks could prompt profit booking after the recent sharp rally in domestic IT names.

International oil benchmark Brent crude rose 0.77 per cent to $72.36 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.68 per cent but remained below $70 per barrel.

In Asian markets, shares traded largely higher, with the Nikkei, Hang Seng and KOSPI rising up to 3 per cent.

Wall Street ended lower overnight amid selling in technology shares. The Nasdaq declined 0.80 per cent, while the S&P 500 closed flat.

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