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Possible inability of conglomerates to face disruption reflected in market discomfort

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The large discounts to fair values in the case of conglomerate stocks reflect the markets general discomfort with capital allocation and diversification associated with such structures, the Kotak Institutional Equities said in a report.

However, a bigger issue may be possible inability of conglomerates to face disruption. It remains to be seen if recent de-merger announcements by large global conglomerates will provide sufficient inspiration to majority shareholders and managements of Indian conglomerates to evaluate similar de-mergers, the report said.

The report said the recent de-merger announcements by large global conglomerates may reflect two factors growing challenges of managing diverse businesses in an increasingly disrupted world and increasing gap between market capitalization and SoTP value of conglomerates leading to rising shareholder frustration.

The managements of these companies probably acquiesce with the former in that individual companies may have better chance to create value through increased management focus on individual businesses. Activist shareholders have taken note of the latter and are challenging company managements to ‘unlock’ value through de-mergers/splits, the report said.

The shareholders (majority or minority) of Indian conglomerates appear to be agnostic to the disruption across industries that could pose challenges to the business models of the weaker businesses in diversified conglomerates and accepting of the large discount to the fair values of various businesses in the parent entity or subsidiaries. India is yet to see any major shareholder activism given the majority or large ownership of majority shareholders, the report said.

“We note that several Indian conglomerates trade at large discounts to the fair value of their individual businesses in the parent or in subsidiaries. The implied P/E or market capitalisation of the main businesses in the parent entities appear to be quite low after adjusting for the market value of the companies’ holdings in their subsidiaries or associates. We note that current large holding company discounts may also be the result of the steep increase in market capitalization of subsidiaries in several cases; they may well be over-valued,” the report said.

The majority shareholders of conglomerates with a mix of unrelated businesses may want to reconsider the ownership structure of their companies and review their business mix given that the market is unlikely to accord the fair value of the businesses in the market capitalization of the holding/operating company, the report said.

The inability of companies to survive and thrive in many different businesses simultaneously in an increasingly ‘disrupted’ world should force a rethink among majority shareholders about the ‘financial’ (control) benefit of continuing with such structures versus potential irrelevance in many businesses in the future and the market’s reluctance to give value to the businesses at present anyway, it added.

Business

Uttar Pradesh moving from local to global: Piyush Goyal

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New Delhi, Aug 3: Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Monday said that Uttar Pradesh is steadily transforming from a local economic powerhouse into a global growth engine, driven by the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

Highlighting the impact of India’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Goyal said the state’s leading sectors are gaining greater access to international markets, creating new opportunities for exporters, artisans, farmers and manufacturers.

“Uttar Pradesh moving from local to global. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Uttar Pradesh is reaching new heights of development,” Goyal said in a post on social media platform X.

He emphasised that trade agreements signed by India are helping connect the state’s products and industries with international markets.

The minister noted that Uttar Pradesh’s key manufacturing and traditional sectors are benefiting from expanding export opportunities.

Kanpur’s renowned leather industry, which has long been a major contributor to the state’s economy, is expected to gain wider access to overseas markets through India’s trade partnerships.

Goyal also highlighted Noida’s rapidly growing electronics manufacturing sector, saying that global market access created through FTAs is opening new possibilities for exporters and manufacturers in the region.

Noida has emerged as one of the country’s major electronics production hubs and is playing an increasingly important role in India’s export ecosystem.

Apart from industrial products, traditional handicrafts from Saharanpur are also poised to benefit from greater international demand.

The minister said artisans and small businesses engaged in the handicrafts sector could access new markets abroad as trade barriers are reduced through various agreements.

Agricultural producers in western Uttar Pradesh are also expected to gain from the expanding trade landscape.

“Through Free Trade Agreements, Kanpur’s leather, Noida’s electronics, Saharanpur’s handicrafts, and agricultural products from Western Uttar Pradesh are gaining new opportunities in global markets,” he mentioned.

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RBI’s 3-day MPC meeting begins today; all eyes on repo rate decision

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Mumbai, Aug 3: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting — led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra — begins on Monday with investors and economists closely tracking the central bank’s assessment of inflation, economic growth and the future interest rate trajectory ahead of the policy decision due on August 5.

The policy announcement is expected to provide cues on the outlook for interest rates, liquidity conditions and the broader economy amid an uncertain global environment.

Many analysts expect the six-member MPC to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent after maintaining the status quo in its June meeting.

According to SBI Research, the RBI is likely to leave policy rates unchanged as consumer price inflation is expected to remain above 5 per cent over the next two quarters, while domestic economic activity has shown signs of strengthening.

The report said Q1 FY27 GDP growth could exceed 7 per cent, higher than earlier estimates.

It further stated that an explicitly dovish message from the central bank appears unlikely in view of oil price volatility, pressure on the rupee and caution over external capital flows.

However, the report noted that domestic fundamentals have improved helped by strong capital inflows in July, a recovery in foreign exchange buffers, better monsoon conditions and near-normal reservoir levels.

Additionally, at its previous policy review in June, the RBI had unanimously retained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and kept its policy stance neutral.

The central bank also revised its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent amid geopolitical tensions.

Markets will also closely watch the RBI’s commentary on inflation risks, growth prospects and global developments for signals on the future course of monetary policy.

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Sensex, Nifty surge up to 1 pc in early trade as lower crude, FII buying boost sentiment

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Mumbai, Aug 3: Indian equity markets traded higher on Monday as benchmarks rallied up to 1 per cent in morning trade, supported by broad-based buying across banking, FMCG and metal stocks amid easing crude oil prices, sustained monsoon progress and renewed foreign fund inflows.

Sensex surged 800 points or 1.02 per cent to an intraday high of 78,895.10 in early deals, while Nifty climbed 192.85 points or 0.79 per cent to 24,576.45.

Sector-wise, FMCG, metal, cement and banking shares led gains, with Nifty FMCG, Nifty Metal, Nifty Chemicals, Nifty Cement, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Private Bank indices rising up to 1 per cent.

However, media, pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks remained under selling pressure, with Nifty Media, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare falling up to 1.6 per cent.

Broader markets also witnessed buying interest, with Nifty Microcap 500 and Nifty Smallcap 100 advancing about 1 per cent.

According to analysts, the market appears poised for a breakout above the 24,500 level on the Nifty, aided by falling crude oil prices, favourable monsoon progress and foreign institutional investors turning net buyers.

Resilient economic growth despite global headwinds, credit growth running above 18 per cent, healthy automobile sales and better-than-expected first-quarter earnings indicate that FY27 earnings growth could surpass earlier estimates, they said.

The market experts further noted that strong inflows through FCNR(B), ECB and OFCB routes have helped stabilise the rupee, facilitating the return of foreign investors.

From a derivatives perspective, Nifty’s near-term trading range remains well defined. Significant ‘PUT’ open interest around the 24,400 strike continues to provide a strong support base, while heavy ‘CALL’ writing near 24,600 is expected to cap near-term upside, according to the experts.

Meanwhile, the immediate support is placed at 24350, backed by a concentration of PUT open interest, indicating that traders expect Nifty to remain largely range-bound.

A sustained hold above 24,350 would support a mildly bullish bias, while a break below that level could weaken sentiment.

Meanwhile, Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — plunged more than 5 per cent to $83.31 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined nearly 7 per cent to $78.78 a barrel which also provided further support to market sentiment.

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