Business
Pick up in economic activity to shoot up country’s CAD to over 1% in FY22
With a pick up in economic activity and the consequent rise in imports, India is expected to quickly turn from a position of current account surplus in FY21 to that of current account deficit (CAD) in FY22.
As per an assessment by Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), the country’s current account deficit to GDP is likely at 1.1 per cent in FY22 with rupee remaining strong against dollar and remaining in the Rs 72.5-74 range in near term.
The Covid-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown last year has impacted the economic activity in the country with GDP plummeting by over 24 per cent in April-June quarter of FY21.
For the full year FY21, the current account balance recorded a surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP as against a deficit of 0.9 per cent in FY20 on the back of a sharp contraction in the trade deficit to $102.2 billion from $157.5 billion in FY20. This was the first time that the country has recorded an annual current account surplus in 17 years. But this surplus was largely on account of a slowdown in imports due to shrinking economic activity.
We expect the overall external sector to remain comfortable but will be subjected to risks from a widening trade deficit, high commodity prices, and policy normalisation in the US, and spread of Covid cases, KIE said in its report.
The rupee has been appreciating significantly recently aided by broad based dollar weakness after a soft rhetoric by the Fed Chair followed by weakening global economic data, muted RBI intervention, and heavy, although lumpy, FII flows in debt. KIE expects this appreciating bias to continue in the near term, especially given the slew of big ticket IPOs lined up in the months ahead and the persistence of wider interest rate gap. However, imminent Fed taper by end- CY2021 and widening domestic trade deficits should gradually weigh on the rupee.
“We maintain our CAD/GDP estimate of 1.1 per cent (US$34.1 bn) in FY2022E and BOP surplus of US$35 billion. We expect USD-INR to remain in the range of 72.5-74 in the near term and will be watchful of shifts in the forex space and volatility when tapering begins,” the report said.
Business
Sensex, Nifty trade flat as crude oil declines, monsoon remains in focus

Mumbai, June 17: Domestic equity benchmarks traded flat in morning session on Wednesday after a three-day rally driven by lower crude oil prices and optimism over a US-Iran peace deal.
Sensex was trading at 76,817.58, up 8.58 points or 0.01 per cent, while Nifty was at 23,988, down 1 point in early trade.
Earlier in the day, the 30-share index opened higher, rising 284.69 points or 0.37 per cent to hit an intraday high of 77,093.17. The 50-script basket began the day at 24,044.50, up 58.89 points or 0.24 per cent.
On the sectoral front, Nifty Consumer Durables was the top performer, gaining 1.26 per cent, followed by Nifty IT and Nifty Media.
In addition, healthcare and pharma stocks remained in demand, with Nifty Pharma advancing 0.24 per cent and Nifty Healthcare rising 0.18 per cent.
In contrast, selling pressure was visible in metal and realty stocks. Nifty Metal fell 0.87 per cent, while Nifty Realty declined 0.68 per cent. Nifty Auto, Private Bank and PSU Bank indices also traded in the red.
Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Hindalco Industries, NTPC, Trent, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Axis Bank were among the top losers.
According to market experts, two factors are likely to influence market trends in the near term — one positive and the other negative.
“The positive factor is the steady and sharp decline in crude oil prices. Brent crude has fallen by around 16 per cent over the last five days to about $79 per barrel, easing concerns over a widening balance of payments deficit in India,” they said.
The negative factor is the deficient monsoon, which is raising concerns about food inflation. However, experts noted that monsoon activity could improve in the coming days, as has happened in the past, easing such concerns.
The positive trend is likely to continue as the rupee has been steadily strengthening and could appreciate further, experts added.
On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude declined 0.72 per cent to $78.39 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude decreased almost 1 per cent to $75.35.
Business
Centre refutes reports on deep-sea energy pipeline between India and the Gulf

New Delhi, June 16: The government on Tuesday refuted media reports that it is pursuing a deep-sea energy pipeline, connecting Gujarat to Oman and other Gulf countries.
In a clarification, the Petroleum Ministry said it has noticed a series of media reports suggesting that the Government of India is actively pursuing a deep-sea energy pipeline, sometimes referred to as the Middle East-India Deepwater Pipeline (MEIDP), connecting Gujarat to Oman and other Gulf countries.
“The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas wishes to categorically clarify that no such proposal is currently under consideration by this Ministry. There are no active discussions or negotiations with Oman or any other Gulf countries on this project at any level in this Ministry,” it said in a statement.
“This clarification is issued to put all speculation in this regard to rest,” added the ministry.
Meanwhile, the Malta-flagged LNG carrier DISHA, managed by a Shipping Corporation of India-led consortium, safely transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday with a cargo of 62,370 metric tonnes of LNG bound for Dahej in Gujarat, and is likely to reach India on June 18.
The government said it remains in continuous coordination with the Ministry of External Affairs, Indian missions abroad, shipping companies, and other relevant stakeholders to ensure the safety and welfare of Indian seafarers and provide all assistance. Port operations across India remain normal, with no congestion reported.
The Directorate General of Shipping (DGS) has also advised shipping companies as well as maritime recruitment and placement agencies to restrict deployment of Indian seafarers to in the Middle East conflict areas until further orders, days after three Indian seafarers onboard MT Settebello were killed after the US military strike on the commercial vessel off the Oman coast.
DG Shipping, in a circular, said masters of vessels operating in or transiting through the Gulf region, including the Strait of Hormuz and adjoining waters, are advised to maintain heightened security awareness, closely monitor navigational warnings received and advisories issued from security agencies, and implement all applicable ship security measures and company security procedures.
Business
Indian equity markets trade higher amid easing West Asia tensions

Mumbai, June 16: Indian equity markets traded higher in morning trade on Tuesday after the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to end conflict.
Sensex rose over 300 points or 0.41 per cent to touch an intraday high of 76,579 in early trade, while Nifty gained around 90 points or 0.36 per cent to trade at 23,941.
Sectorally, buying was seen in realty, IT, consumer durables and financial stocks, with Nifty Realty gaining 0.86 per cent and Nifty IT rising 0.74 per cent.
FMCG, media, chemicals and auto indices also traded in positive territory.
In contrast, metal stocks witnessed selling pressure, dragging Nifty Metal down more than 1 per cent.
From the Nifty pack, Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel, Axis Bank, HDFC Life, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) and Tata Steel were among the top losers.
Analysts said the sharp correction in Brent crude prices to below $84 per barrel and stability in the rupee have the potential to lend resilience to the market.
“The strong macro headwind of a rising balance of payments (BoP) deficit is no longer a serious issue for the economy. This positive development has imparted stability to the rupee, which has appreciated to 94.71 against the dollar from its recent low of 96.96,” market experts said.
However, analysts cautioned that a weak monsoon remains a concern, as a below-normal rainfall season could fuel inflationary pressures. They said developments on the monsoon front would need to be closely monitored in the coming weeks.
According to senior US officials, the two sides have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at ending the nearly four-month-long war, with a formal signing ceremony expected on Friday.
Moreover, US officials indicated that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to resume gradually, easing concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies.
On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude traded 0.37 per cent lower at $82.86 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.22 per cent to $80.57 per barrel.
Asian markets traded mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.62 per cent, while South Korea’s KOSPI surged more than 2 per cent. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite gained around 4 per cent. However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined over 1 per cent.
Overnight, Wall Street ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.65 per cent and the Nasdaq surging nearly 3 per cent.
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