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Pick up in economic activity to shoot up country’s CAD to over 1% in FY22

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Rupees

With a pick up in economic activity and the consequent rise in imports, India is expected to quickly turn from a position of current account surplus in FY21 to that of current account deficit (CAD) in FY22.

As per an assessment by Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), the country’s current account deficit to GDP is likely at 1.1 per cent in FY22 with rupee remaining strong against dollar and remaining in the Rs 72.5-74 range in near term.

The Covid-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown last year has impacted the economic activity in the country with GDP plummeting by over 24 per cent in April-June quarter of FY21.

For the full year FY21, the current account balance recorded a surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP as against a deficit of 0.9 per cent in FY20 on the back of a sharp contraction in the trade deficit to $102.2 billion from $157.5 billion in FY20. This was the first time that the country has recorded an annual current account surplus in 17 years. But this surplus was largely on account of a slowdown in imports due to shrinking economic activity.

We expect the overall external sector to remain comfortable but will be subjected to risks from a widening trade deficit, high commodity prices, and policy normalisation in the US, and spread of Covid cases, KIE said in its report.

The rupee has been appreciating significantly recently aided by broad based dollar weakness after a soft rhetoric by the Fed Chair followed by weakening global economic data, muted RBI intervention, and heavy, although lumpy, FII flows in debt. KIE expects this appreciating bias to continue in the near term, especially given the slew of big ticket IPOs lined up in the months ahead and the persistence of wider interest rate gap. However, imminent Fed taper by end- CY2021 and widening domestic trade deficits should gradually weigh on the rupee.

“We maintain our CAD/GDP estimate of 1.1 per cent (US$34.1 bn) in FY2022E and BOP surplus of US$35 billion. We expect USD-INR to remain in the range of 72.5-74 in the near term and will be watchful of shifts in the forex space and volatility when tapering begins,” the report said.

Crime

Delhi Police arrest notorious cyber stalker in Palam

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CRIME

New Delhi, July 2: A 21-year-old man was arrested in Delhi’s Palam village for allegedly harassing a college student by creating fake Instagram accounts and using artificial intelligence (AI) tools to generate objectionable content.

The accused was persistently stalking and defaming the victim, a college-going girl, through multiple fake Instagram profiles, Amit Goel, Deputy Commissioner of Police, South West District, said in a statement.

The complainant approached the Cyber Police Station, West District, on June 16, reporting that the accused was daily creating new accounts using her photographs, posting them with derogatory captions, and targeting her and her followers.

Acting on the complaint, the police registered a case under relevant sections of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS).

“In view of the seriousness of the matter, a dedicated team led by SI Priyanka was formed to identify and apprehend the accused,” the statement added.

A team of PS Cyber, South-West District, arrested the notorious cyber stalker and recovered the smartphone used in the commission of the offence, the statement read.

During the investigation, it came to the fore that the accused was impersonating a female using a profile picture taken from the victim’s public Instagram account, the police said.

The police said the accused further used AI tools to convert the images into sexually explicit content and uploaded these edited pictures through fake Instagram stories.

Despite efforts to mask his identity by not linking any accounts to verifiable mobile numbers or Gmail IDs, the cyber team used advanced technical analysis to track the suspect to the Palam area of South-West Delhi. Multiple raids were conducted before he was successfully arrested.

The accused, whose identity has been withheld, confessed to the crime during interrogation, the police statement read.

Further investigation is underway.

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National

Ashish Shelar Orders Timely Honorarium Disbursal And SOP Reinforcement For Senior Folk Artists

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Cultural Affairs Minister Adv. Ashish Shelar on Tuesday directed the department to re-communicate instructions to all District Collectors regarding the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for disbursal of honorarium to senior folk artists. He also instructed that every senior artist must receive a written response to their application within the prescribed timeframe.

A review meeting was held at Mantralaya to assess the remuneration process for senior artists, during which Cultural Affairs Minister Ashish Shelar issued key directives. The application process for this year’s honorarium disbursal began today.

Noting that several complaints are received annually regarding delays and inconsistencies, the Minister instructed the Director of Cultural Affairs to ensure time-bound redressal of all grievances. He emphasized that every senior artist must receive a written response to their application within the stipulated timeframe to build trust and transparency in the system.

Minister Shelar also pointed out that the formation of remuneration committees for senior artists is still pending in many districts. In light of this, he stressed the need to re-communicate the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) to all District Collectors to ensure uniformity and accountability in the implementation of the honorarium process across the state.

Deputy Secretary of the Cultural Affairs Department Mahesh Vavhal, Director of the Directorate of Cultural Affairs Bibhishan Chavare, Joint Director Shriram Pande, and other senior officials were present on the occasion.

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National

Ravindra Chavan, Trusted Lieutenant Of Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis, Appointed BJP State Unit President

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Mumbai: Ravindra Chavan, known as a trusted lieutenant of Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, will take over as BJP’s state unit president on Tuesday.

The incumbent, Revenue Minister Chandrashekhar Bawankule, will hand over charge at a party conclave in Mumbai. The mantle is being handed to Chavan, whose grassroots planning ensured BJP’s impressive electoral performance in Thane and the Konkan belt, with an eye on the coming elections to the local bodies, according to party sources.

Chavan was the only candidate who filed his nomination papers on Monday at BJP state headquarters in the presence of Fadnavis, Bawankule and the party’s Maharashtra in-charge Arun Singh. Union minister Kiren Rijiju was present as the central observer.

Chavan represents Dombivali for the fourth term in the Assembly. He was a member of the Fadnavis cabinet between 2014 and 2019 and the Eknath Shinde-led government from 2022 to 2024. There was speculation of his elevation to the key party post started when he was denied a Cabinet berth after last year’s Assembly elections. He has been officiating as the working president of the state unit for the last few months.

The BJP is eyeing maximum number of municipal bodies in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) comprising 8 municipal corporations. With the elevation of Chavan, known for his aggressive politics, BJP seems to be sending out a message to deputy CM Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, which is likely to ask for lion’s share of seats for the civic polls. As an experienced leader, Chavan will shoulder his responsibilities with vigour and strength, Fadnavis asserted.

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