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Omicron concerns, FII outflows to pull Rupee lower; Likely RBI moves to stem volatility

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Concerns over the new Omicron Covid-19 variant, as well as continued foreign fund outflows will keep Indian rupee subdued during the upcoming week, experts have opined.

Besides, high YoY trade deficit along with new US tapering measures will hamper any appreciation move.

However, the downside will be capped by lower oil prices along with probable RBI interventions.

“On the positive side, falling crude oil prices around $73 per barrel levels and accommodative monetory policy should provide some respite,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates at Edelweiss Securities.

“Historically, some intervention shall be looked upon for any trend reversal in rupee.”

The RBI is known to enter the markets via intermediaries to either sell or buy US dollars to keep the rupee in a stable orbit.

“We expect the pair to trade between 75.50 to 76.50 next week with a lower bias for the pair.”

Last week, the rupee closed at 76.09 to a USD weakening significantly on a weekly basis.

The Indian rupee has stabilised in the last two sesions this week after hitting lowest level of 20 months.

“Rupee lost ground against dollar precipitiusly in early part of the week amid risk averse sentiments, policy divergence, foreign fund outflows and higher trade deficit numbers. The RBI’s policy divergence with Fed weighed on local currency along with higher imports,” said Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

“Trading volumes are set to decline as forex markets head into the Christmas break. Spot USDINR expected to consolidate between 76.50 to 75.70 before heading higher towards 77.”

So far, the foreign institutions have sold over $4 billion worth of equities in this qurter.

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said: “Next week, on the domestic front no major economic data are expected to be released but FIIs who have been on the sell side if take a pause on the selling could restrict sharp depreciation of the rupee.

“From the US, except core PCE index no other data is expected to release but now that the Federal Reserve has started to increase its bond tapering program market participants could continue to be positive on the greenback. We expect the USDINR (Spot) to quote in the range of 75.70 and 76.50.”

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Sensex, Nifty decline for 4th week as oil shock keeps investors cautious

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New Delhi, Sep 5: Indian equity markets remained volatile and under pressure through the week, with the benchmark Nifty extending its losing streak to four consecutive weeks, as surging crude oil prices and escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities overshadowed strong domestic economic data.

The Nifty ended the week at 23,897.70, gaining 0.10 per cent on Friday, but still registered a weekly decline of around 1.2 per cent. The index snapped a four-session losing streak, although it remained below key moving averages and continued to show a weak near-term technical structure.

The Sensex closed the week at 76,515.43, rising 362.57 points, or 0.48 per cent, on Friday. Despite the late-week recovery, the index declined around 1 per cent over the week and remained caught in a broader corrective and consolidation phase.

The biggest pressure on Indian equities came from crude oil, with Brent crude rising more than 8 per cent during the week and WTI crude gaining over 9 per cent. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and concerns over possible disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed up the geopolitical risk premium in global energy markets.

The rise in oil prices came despite encouraging domestic economic indicators. India’s economy grew 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of FY27, comfortably exceeding market expectations, while strong GST collections also pointed to continued momentum in economic activity. However, these positive developments failed to provide a sustained boost to equities as investors remained focused on the potential impact of higher crude prices on inflation, the current account and corporate profitability.

Foreign institutional investors continued to remain a source of pressure, recording net outflows of around Rs 5,600 crore during the week. Domestic institutional investors, however, provided strong support, with net inflows of around Rs 18,560 crore, helping absorb a significant portion of the foreign selling.

On a month-to-date basis, FIIs remained net buyers of approximately Rs 2,374 crore in September, while DIIs recorded net purchases of around Rs 18,568 crore. Strong domestic institutional participation has emerged as an important stabilising factor for Indian equities, although persistent foreign selling could continue to limit the market’s upside.

Investors will now closely track the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could play an important role in determining the direction of global markets.

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Pune poised to become India GCC capital, says Maha CM

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Pune, Sep 4: Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Friday said Pune is rapidly emerging as the country’s leading hub for Global Capability Centres (GCCs), with more than 130 centres currently operational and the number expected to cross 800 in the coming years.

He reaffirmed the state government’s commitment to positioning Pune as the preferred destination for GCC investments in India. The Chief Minister was speaking at the inauguration of Magnum Ice Cream Company’s Global Business Solutions Centre.

Highlighting that Maharashtra has emerged as the preferred investment hub for Global Capability Centers in India, CM Fadnavis noted that the enthusiastic response from multinational corporations establishing global business centers in Pune is a testament to the city’s business-friendly environment and skilled talent pool.

The Chief Minister explained that Magnum’s Pune centre will generate more than 1,000 direct job opportunities alongside boosting indirect employment. To optimise the company’s global business operations, the facility will integrate artificial intelligence, automated technologies, logistics, and other advanced solutions to streamline manufacturing, distribution, and customer experience operations.

“When the government and the industry collaborate, it creates a robust ecosystem that accelerates investment, job creation, and overall economic growth. The state government remains committed to providing all necessary support and a conducive climate for businesses investing in Maharashtra,” he stated.

He further added that this Global Business Solutions Centre in Pune, operating alongside the regional headquarters in Mumbai, will chart a new direction for Magnum’s expansion in Maharashtra. Active measures are being taken to strengthen physical infrastructure across Pune’s industrial sectors — with a special focus on resolving IT infrastructure challenges in Hinjawadi — to make the region an even more attractive destination for GCCs.

Industry department principal secretary Dr P. Anbalagan noted that Global Capability Centres are not merely office spaces, but crucial engines driving the nation’s economic momentum. India has established itself as a global leader in the GCC space, with Maharashtra and Pune playing a pivotal role in this expansion. In Pune alone, demand for commercial office space by GCCs reached approximately 6 million square feet over the past 15 months, while 130 new or expanded GCC units were set up across the state over the last 18 months.

He added that the state government has set a target of hosting 400 GCC companies and over 700 units in the coming period. Currently, Pune hosts operations from companies representing over 30 countries across 20 sectors, employing nearly 10,000 professionals.

Investment and Policy Advisor to the CM, Kaustubh Dhavse, remarked that the relationship between Magnum Ice Cream Company and the Government of Maharashtra is built on trust, reliability, and mutual respect. He added that the Indian-origin executive leadership steering the company globally brings inspiring experience.

In his opening address, Abhijit Bhattacharya, CFO of Magnum Ice Cream Company, credited the state government’s rapid decision-making process for making the global business centre a reality in a short time frame.

He cited Maharashtra’s robust industrial ecosystem, superior connectivity, and proactive administration as key factors in selecting Pune.

Bhattacharya commended CM Fadnavis’s vision to make Maharashtra a premier hub for global business centres and expressed the company’s intent to collaborate with the state on sustainable dairy systems, while also bringing the global ice cream brand ‘Ben & Jerry’s’ to India.

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Adani Ports to start dedicated empty container yard operations at Mundra to boost efficiency

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Ahmedabad, Sep 4: Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) on Friday said it is launching a dedicated Empty Container Yard (ECY) with integrated warehousing at Mundra, offering end-to-end services across the empty container lifecycle, including storage, maintenance, inspection, and seamless movement to exporters and CFSs (container freight stations).

As part of its ‘Ambition 2031’ roadmap, APSEZ is making significant investments to expand capacity across its network, with Mundra at the forefront of this growth.

India’s largest integrated transport operator plans to add more than 6 million TEUs of container handling capacity over the next five years, said the Adani Group company.

“The dedicated Empty Container Yard at Mundra, to be operated by APSEZ and/or partners (including CFS and shipping lines), will enhance efficiency across the container ecosystem by enabling faster turnaround times, reducing unnecessary container movements, and optimising logistics costs,” said Ashwani Gupta, Whole-time Director and Chief Executive Officer, APSEZ.

Strengthening trade-enabling infrastructure remains central to APSEZ’s commitment towards supporting India’s growth and the vision of Viksit Bharat, Gupta added.

Adani Ports commands a 45.5 per cent share of India’s container market as of FY26. Within this, Mundra Port alone handles nearly 35 per cent of the country’s container trade, making it India’s largest container-handling port.

The volume of empty containers handled at Mundra is estimated at around 1.6 million TEUs annually, underscoring its critical role in supporting India’s import-export supply chains, said the company.

Moreover, the initiative aligns with the government’s focus on developing efficient, technology-enabled logistics systems and improving ease of doing business.

Adani Ports operates a comprehensive ecosystem of 16 strategically located ports and terminals with a diversified marine fleet of 136 vessels and integrated logistics capabilities.

With a current cargo handling capacity of 653 million tonnes per annum, APSEZ commands approximately 27 per cent of India’s total port volumes, targeting 1 billion tonnes throughput by 2030.

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