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Omicron concerns, FII outflows to pull Rupee lower; Likely RBI moves to stem volatility

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Concerns over the new Omicron Covid-19 variant, as well as continued foreign fund outflows will keep Indian rupee subdued during the upcoming week, experts have opined.

Besides, high YoY trade deficit along with new US tapering measures will hamper any appreciation move.

However, the downside will be capped by lower oil prices along with probable RBI interventions.

“On the positive side, falling crude oil prices around $73 per barrel levels and accommodative monetory policy should provide some respite,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates at Edelweiss Securities.

“Historically, some intervention shall be looked upon for any trend reversal in rupee.”

The RBI is known to enter the markets via intermediaries to either sell or buy US dollars to keep the rupee in a stable orbit.

“We expect the pair to trade between 75.50 to 76.50 next week with a lower bias for the pair.”

Last week, the rupee closed at 76.09 to a USD weakening significantly on a weekly basis.

The Indian rupee has stabilised in the last two sesions this week after hitting lowest level of 20 months.

“Rupee lost ground against dollar precipitiusly in early part of the week amid risk averse sentiments, policy divergence, foreign fund outflows and higher trade deficit numbers. The RBI’s policy divergence with Fed weighed on local currency along with higher imports,” said Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

“Trading volumes are set to decline as forex markets head into the Christmas break. Spot USDINR expected to consolidate between 76.50 to 75.70 before heading higher towards 77.”

So far, the foreign institutions have sold over $4 billion worth of equities in this qurter.

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said: “Next week, on the domestic front no major economic data are expected to be released but FIIs who have been on the sell side if take a pause on the selling could restrict sharp depreciation of the rupee.

“From the US, except core PCE index no other data is expected to release but now that the Federal Reserve has started to increase its bond tapering program market participants could continue to be positive on the greenback. We expect the USDINR (Spot) to quote in the range of 75.70 and 76.50.”

Business

Mumbai Infra: BMC Plans ₹220-Crore Flyover Between Mahim & Bandra East To Ease Congestion On WEH

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Mumbai: In a bid to ease traffic congestion along a crucial stretch of the Western Express Highway (WEH), the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has revived plans to construct a flyover connecting Mahim and Bandra (East). The civic body has once again invited tenders for the long-pending project after earlier attempts failed to attract bidders.

The proposed flyover will link Machhimar Colony on Senapati Bapat Marg in Mahim to Bandra (East), providing an alternative route for motorists who currently face severe traffic snarls on the western express highway. The congestion typically begins at Mithi Chowk in Bandra (East) and extends up to Dadar, significantly slowing down traffic on the WEH.

The project is estimated to cost approximately Rs. 220.17 crore. The flyover will stretch for over one kilometre and is expected to ease pressure on existing routes between Mahim and Bandra (East), an area that already includes the Chunabhatti–BKC flyover and the old Kalanagar flyover.

This is not the first time the BMC has attempted to push the project forward. The initial tender, floated in 2022, was withdrawn due to technical issues. A second tender issued in July 2023 failed to receive any bids and eventually lapsed. The bridge department has now reissued the tender, expressing hope that contractors will come forward this time.

The project involves crossing areas near Mithi Chowk, which will require clearances from the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) authorities and the Forest Department. The responsibility of securing these permissions will lie with the appointed contractor.

Once completed, the flyover is expected to streamline traffic flow between Mahim and Bandra (East) and provide relief to commuters using one of the city’s busiest arterial corridors.

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Bharat Forge’s Q3 profit falls 17 pc, Rs 2 interim dividend announced

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Mumbai, Feb 12: Bharat Forge on Thursday reported nearly 17 per cent year-on-year decline in its standalone net profit for the quarter ended December 2026 (Q3 FY26).

On a standalone basis, the company posted a net profit of Rs 288 crore lower than Rs 346 crore reported in the same quarter last financial year (Q3 FY25), according to its stock exchange filing.

Standalone revenue from operations saw a marginal dip of 0.6 per cent to Rs 2,083.7 crore in Q3 FY26.

On a consolidated basis, the performance was stronger. Revenue rose 25 per cent year-on-year to Rs 4,343 crore, compared with Rs 3,476 crore in the year-ago period.

Net profit increased 28.2 per cent to Rs 273 crore from Rs 213 crore in the corresponding quarter last financial year.

The company said the quarterly numbers included a one-time cost of Rs 55.7 crore, which had an impact on margins.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) grew 20 per cent to Rs 750 crore from Rs 624 crore a year ago.

However, EBITDA margin moderated to 17.3 per cent from 18 per cent in the same quarter last financial year.

The Board of Directors also declared an interim dividend of Rs 2 per equity share of face value Rs 2 each, which translates to a 100 per cent payout on the face value.

The dividend will be paid on or before March 12, 2026, and the record date for determining eligible shareholders has been fixed as February 18, 2026.

Commenting on the performance, B. N. Kalyani, Chairman and Managing Director of Bharat Forge, said the results continued to be impacted by de-stocking in the North American commercial vehicle market.

He added that strong growth in the domestic automotive business and execution of the defence order book helped support the overall performance.

On a sequential basis, standalone revenue rose 7 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 2,084 crore.

EBITDA increased 4.6 per cent to Rs 569 crore, while margins stood at 27.3 per cent. Export revenue declined 3 per cent on a sequential basis, with auto exports falling 13 per cent, even as industrial exports grew 11 per cent.

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Sensex, Nifty open in red; IT index dips 3.58 pc

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Mumbai, Feb 12: The Indian equity markets opened lower early on Thursday weighed down by IT stocks.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex lost 397 points, or 0.47 per cent, to reach 83,836, and Nifty lost 111 points, or 0.43 per cent, to settle at 25,842.

Main broad-cap indices posted stronger losses than benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 declined 0.76 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 dipped 0.88 per cent.

All sectoral indices traded in the red except FMCG, private banks as well as oil and gas. Most notable losers were Nifty IT down 3.58 per cent, realty down 1.11 per cent and media down 1.04 per cent.

Immediate support for Nifty is placed at 25,800-25,850 zone, while resistance is anchored at 26,050-26,100 zone, market watchers said.

Analysts said that the latest US jobs data indicating addition of 1.3 lakh jobs last month and unemployment falling to 4.3 per cent points weakened hopes of rate cuts by the Fed in the near-term.

In India, market watchers said that the rate cutting cycle is over since growth is good and inflation is expected to inch back to the RBI’s long-term target by the end of FY27.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index added 0.12, and Shenzhen gained 0.81 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.1 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index eased 0.97 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi gained 2.74 per cent.

The US markets ended largely in the red overnight as Nasdaq eased 0.16 per cent. The S&P 500 traded flat, and the Dow Jones lost 0.13 per cent.

On February 11, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought equities worth Rs 944 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of equities worth Rs 125 crore.

Indian equities corrected in January amid global volatility and FII outflows; however, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, according to analysts.

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