Business
Nov retail inflation rate may be down, battle continues
With core inflation continuing to be high, credit rating agencies like Acuite Ratings & Research and CARE Ratings do not expect any significant downtrend in the retail inflation for the next few months.
“It is a pleasant surprise to see the headline CPI inflation print at 5.88 per cent in Nov-22 from 6.77 per cent in Oct-22 since most market participants estimated it to be above 6.0 per cent. This is an eleven-month low figure and is clearly driven by the faster-than-expected decline in food inflation which stood at 5.1 per cent in the previous month,” Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer said.
According to Chowdhury, the fall in retail inflation has been due to the quick drop in vegetable prices which is a seasonal phenomenon apart from the continuing softness in edible oil prices.
“Nevertheless, the core inflation figure remains high for RBI’s comfort and has in fact moved up further to 6.29 per cent in Nov-22 from 6.23 per cent in Oct-22; on an MoM basis, the core inflation went up by 0.43 per cent, highlighting the embedded nature of the current inflationary environment,” Chowdhury said.
The moderately healthy, if not strong, momentum in domestic demand is leading to the holding up of the core inflation.
Also, the base factor was relatively an advantage for the Nov-22 print which may not be the case for Dec-22. Therefore, we don’t expect any significant trend downward for the CPI inflation for the next few months, Chowdhury said.
“Given the core inflation trajectory, we continue to forecast an average figure of 6.7 per cent for CPI inflation in FY23. We also continue to expect another round of modest hike in Feb-23 which will take the terminal rate to 6.5 per cent or higher,” Chowdhury said.
According to CARE Ratings, though the inflationary pressures are on a declining trend, the war against inflation is still not over.
The moderation in food inflation is comforting, but it is mostly led by vegetables which are susceptible to weather fluctuations.
Cereals and milk inflation, the top two contributors to food inflation, are still elevated and on an upward trend, CARE Ratings said.
In this context, better Rabi acreage in the current season is a comforting factor. The strengthening of services inflation has led to sticky core price pressures despite easing of goods inflation.
Taking cue from the recent data, the RBI will remain cautious to prevent inflationary expectations from spiralling upwards.
However, with disappointing data from the Manufacturing sector, the Central Banks’ decision to go for another rate hike in the February meeting will be a close call.
Mumbai, June 12: Gold and silver prices traded higher on Friday, with precious metals surging by up to 2 per cent amid hopes of a peace deal in the ongoing West Asia conflict.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) increased as much as 1.11 per cent or Rs 1,668 to hit an intraday high of Rs 1,50,600 as of around 11:30 am.
The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,49,916, up 0.66 per cent or Rs 948. It touched an intraday low of Rs 1,49,569, a gain of 0.42 per cent or Rs 637 from the previous close.
Meanwhile, silver futures (July) traded at Rs 2,42,143, higher by Rs 2,490 or 1 per cent.
The white metal touched an intraday high of Rs 2,44,817, jumping 2.15 per cent during the session so far. It recorded an intraday low of Rs 2,41,601, up 0.81 per cent or Rs 1,948 from the previous close.
Earlier in the day, gold and silver began the session at Rs 1,50,595 and Rs 2,42,776, respectively, on the commodity exchange.
According to commodity market experts, bullion remained under pressure overall and was headed for a second consecutive weekly decline as persistent inflation concerns and growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike continued to weigh on sentiment.
Analysts said precious metals rebounded sharply from six-month lows after US President Donald Trump indicated that the US and Iran could reach a peace agreement as early as this weekend.
However, gains remained limited amid continued uncertainty over the negotiations, with Iranian officials denying that a final agreement had been reached, according to them.
Optimism around a potential diplomatic breakthrough eased concerns over global energy supplies, triggering a decline in crude oil prices and improving broader market risk appetite, experts added.
Market participants will now track developments in US-Iran negotiations and upcoming commentary from the Federal Reserve for further direction in precious metal prices.
In international markets, COMEX silver traded at $66.94, up more than 4 per cent, while COMEX gold rose over 2 per cent to $4,203.70 per ounce.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices declined sharply, with US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude falling roughly 3 per cent to $85 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude declined 1.59 per cent to $88.94 per barrel.
Mumbai, June 11: Gold and silver prices traded lower on Thursday, with precious metals falling by up to 2 per cent amid escalating tensions in the West Asia conflict.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) declined as much as 1 per cent or Rs 1,573 to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,46,444 as of around 12 pm.
The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,47,860, down 0.11 per cent or Rs 157. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,48,089, up 0.04 per cent or Rs 72 from the previous close.
On the other hand, silver futures (July) were trading at Rs 2,34,500, down Rs 1,005 or 0.43 per cent.
The white metal touched an intraday low of Rs 2,30,493, declining 2.12 per cent during the session so far. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,35,402, down 0.04 per cent or Rs 103 from the previous close.
Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened at Rs 1,46,518 and Rs 2,31,671, respectively, on the MCX.
In international markets, precious metals also remained under pressure. COMEX silver was trading at $63.90, down over 1.29 per cent, while COMEX gold was trading 0.68 per cent lower at $4,105.30 per ounce.
According to commodity analysts, precious metals remained under pressure as investors assessed the latest developments in the West Asia conflict. Gold stabilised near multi-month lows after the US military confirmed the completion of its latest strikes on Iran, raising expectations that diplomatic negotiations could resume.
They said easing safe-haven demand, coupled with expectations that US interest rates could remain higher for longer, weighed on bullion prices. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
Market participants also continued to monitor inflationary pressures stemming from rising energy prices and their potential impact on the US Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude rising over 2 per cent to trade near $95 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 4 per cent to $93.64 per barrel.
Mumbai, June 10: Domestic equity markets traded higher on Wednesday in the morning session despite elevated geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.
Sensex gained as much as 0.59 per cent or over 400 points to touch an intraday high of 74,356 in early trade, while the Nifty rose 0.46 per cent or about 100 points to 23,351.
Sectoral performance was largely positive, with FMCG stocks leading the gains. Nifty FMCG rose 1.5 per cent, followed by Nifty Chemicals (0.67 per cent), Nifty Oil & Gas (0.60 per cent) and Nifty Private Bank (0.50 per cent).
On the downside, metal stocks remained under pressure, with Nifty Metal declining more than 1 per cent. Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom fell 0.62 per cent, while Auto, Media and PSU Bank indices traded marginally lower.
Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Hindalco Industries emerged as the top loser, shedding nearly 3 per cent. Eternal, Adani Enterprises, NTPC and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) were among the other major laggards.
“While weak global cues and geopolitical tensions could keep markets volatile in the near term, technical indicators suggest signs of stabilisation after recent selling pressure. Nifty has strong support around 23,000-23,100, while 23,500-23,600 remains the immediate resistance zone. A decisive breakout on either side is likely to determine the market’s next directional move,” analysts said.
Investors and traders’ sentiment remained cautious amid escalating tensions in West Asia after the United States launched strikes on Iran, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict and its potential impact on global energy supplies.
On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude rose 0.75 per cent to around $93 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.88 per cent to nearly $90 per barrel.
In Asia, markets traded largely in the red. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined more than 1 per cent each, while South Korea’s KOSPI plunged nearly 4 per cent.
Overnight, Wall Street ended lower, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.26 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.97 per cent.
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