With the Maharashtra Assembly elections around the corner, political analysts are closely watching the effects of the ruling alliance’s Ladki Bahin Yojana, seen as a possible game-changer for the Mahayuti government, which includes Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Ajit Pawar’s faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). 

While the scheme is viewed as a strategic move to win over women voters, recent defections from the ruling camp to the opposition suggest the political battle is not yet over and the voters might be signalling towards a change.

Launched by the ruling alliance, the Ladki Bahin Yojana aims to empower girls and women in Maharashtra, addressing a key demographic of voters. Before the scheme was paused due to the model code of conduct, the government had already transferred five instalments of ₹1,500 per month to 2.34 crore applicants. This amounted to a significant outlay of ₹17,174 crore, raising questions about the sustainability of such populist measures and their potential electoral impact in run up to the state elections.

Populist schemes: A proven strategy?

Populist schemes have long played a crucial role in Indian elections, from cash transfers and farm loan waivers to subsidised electricity and women-centric initiatives. In some cases, these schemes have significantly swayed voters, as seen in past elections across the country.

In Delhi in 2020, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won a landslide victory by offering free electricity (up to 200 units), free water, bus rides for women, and improvements in government schools. These promises, particularly in education and women’s empowerment, resonated with lower- and middle-income voters, allowing AAP to secure 62 out of 70 seats.

In Telangana in 2018, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) introduced the Rythu Bandhu scheme, which provided direct financial support to farmers. The scheme was credited for the party’s strong showing, winning 88 of 119 seats, and solidified TRS’s base among rural voters.

In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) promised financial assistance for women, free bus rides for women, and support for farmers and low-income households ahead of the 2021 elections. The DMK won 159 of 234 seats, defeating the ruling AIADMK. The promise of a monthly stipend for homemakers played a key role in mobilising women voters, contributing to the DMK’s success.

Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led government in Madhya Pradesh announced several populist schemes including the Ladli Behna Yojana targeting women aged 23-60 years from low-income families and providing them with Rs 1,250 per month ahead of the 2023 assembly elections. As a result, his government won the state with a thumping majority even after years of anti-incumbency much to the Congress’ disappointment.

Maharashtra’s complex political terrain

Despite the success of populist schemes in other states, Maharashtra presents a unique challenge. Over the past few years, the state’s political landscape has been marked by party splits, shifting alliances, and heightened political rivalries. The battle for power in the upcoming elections is not just about promises and schemes; it’s about the very survival of political entities and their leaders.

Political analysts believe that while the Ladki Bahin Yojana might appeal to women voters, it is difficult to predict whether it will guarantee electoral success in Maharashtra, where the political dynamics are far more fluid and unpredictable.

Lessons from failures of populist schemes

Not all populist schemes have translated into electoral victories. There are instances where parties have failed to win despite offering attractive welfare measures:

In Madhya Pradesh (2023), the Congress promised its Nyay Yojana and farm loan waivers, yet it struggled to win seats. Delayed implementation and doubts about the schemes’ financial sustainability weakened their appeal, and local governance issues seemed to take precedence over populist promises.

In Tamil Nadu (2021), the AIADMK’s wide-ranging populist measures, such as Amma Canteens, free laptops, and financial support for women, failed to prevent the party’s defeat. Voter fatigue after 10 years of AIADMK rule, combined with the DMK’s more attractive welfare promises, played a significant role in the shift.

In West Bengal (2021), the BJP promised cash transfers, free rice, and farmer support under the PM-KISAN scheme, but these promises couldn’t outmatch Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC), which retained a strong voter base through its established welfare schemes like Kanyashree and Rupashree (for women’s education and marriage).

Why populist schemes sometimes fail

Several factors can undermine the effectiveness of populist schemes:

– Delayed or inconsistent implementation: If schemes are not implemented swiftly or face administrative hurdles, they may fail to gain the expected electoral support. For example, the Congress’s farm loan waiver in Madhya Pradesh was delayed, causing voter scepticism.

– Over-saturation of promises: In states like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, where intense political competition leads to a flood of promises, voters may become desensitised. The novelty and appeal of populist schemes diminish when both ruling and opposition parties offer similar packages.

– Leadership and governance issues: Strong leadership often outweighs the appeal of populist schemes. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s established leadership and connection with local communities helped her retain power, while in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK struggled with leadership challenges after J. Jayalalithaa’s death.

Political turmoil and defections

Amid the Ladki Bahin Yojana’s potential to boost the ruling coalition’s chances, the exodus of leaders from the Mahayuti government raises concerns about its winnability. Several key leaders from Ajit Pawar’s NCP and BJP factions have defected to Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray’s camps citing dissatisfaction within the ruling alliance. More defections are expected as party members face uncertainty over ticket allocations for the upcoming elections, further complicating the ruling coalition’s prospects.

The Ladki Bahin Yojana might be seen as a masterstroke by the ruling coalition, but the defections and political unrest signal that the race for power in Maharashtra is far from over. Whether or not the scheme will help the Mahayuti government retain power is to be seen when results will be declared on the evening of November 23.

Mumbai: In the upcoming Maharashtra assembly elections, two critical regions, Vidarbha and the Konkan-Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) belt are expected to play a decisive role in determining the outcome. These areas hold 62 and 75 seats respectively and both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) are focusing their strategies on these regions.

Insights from the recent Lok Sabha elections indicate a tight contest between the two coalitions, with the MVA winning 30 out of Maharashtra’s 48 seats, while the Mahayuti secured 17. Despite this, there was less than a 1% difference in the vote share between them, with the MVA at 43.71% and Mahayuti at 43.55%.

Outcome Of Recent Lok Sabha Elections

Vidarbha, with the highest number of assembly seats and the MMR-Konkan belt, are seen as battlegrounds that could tip the scales. In Vidarbha, the MVA led in 7 out of 10 Lok Sabha seats, while the Mahayuti performed better in the Konkan region, winning 5 out of 6 seats outside Mumbai. Mumbai itself saw the MVA dominate, winning 4 out of 6 seats.

Mahayuti Relying On Effect Of Schemes & Grassroots Campaigning

The Mahayuti’s strategy revolves around bridging the gap of 30-odd seats where the MVA currently leads, leveraging caste combinations, grassroots campaigning and populist schemes like the Ladki Bahin Yojana. The alliance is focusing on strengthening its position in regions where it performed well in the Lok Sabha polls, particularly in Vidarbha and the MMR-Konkan belt.

The BJP, which once dominated Vidarbha, is hoping to regain its stronghold, while Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction remains confident of winning in the Konkan-MMR districts, where it has deep roots.

MVA Focussing On Maratha Quota & Farmers’ Issues

In contrast, the MVA, bolstered by the Maratha reservation movement and the legacy of Sharad Pawar in western Maharashtra, is confident of maintaining its lead in Marathwada and western Maharashtra. Maratha agitation is a key factor in these regions, with the MVA seen as having the upper hand.

In Vidarbha, discontent among farmers and youth, coupled with the Dalit, Muslim and Kunbi alliance that benefited the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls, could also play a decisive role in the MVA’s favour.

Reports citing political analysts believe the BJP’s success in Vidarbha will depend on its ability to appeal to various caste groups and the impact of populist welfare schemes. While the Mahayuti is optimistic about maintaining its hold in Konkan and parts of Vidarbha, the MVA is poised to exploit any growing dissatisfaction among the electorate, particularly in rural areas.

Ultimately, the performance of both alliances in Vidarbha and MMR-Konkan will be crucial in determining the balance of power in Maharashtra’s assembly elections. The elections will be conducted in a single phase, with the polling date on November 20. The counting of votes will take place on November 23.

Mumbai: Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut on Monday alleged that Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has promised Rs 50 crore to each MLA to secure election victories.

Addressing a press conference in Mumbai, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Raut said “Yesterday, there were 2 vehicles which had almost Rs 15 crores in them. As I had said earlier, Eknath Shinde has promised his people to give them Rs 50 crore each to win elections, it was the first instalment of Rs 15 crore.”

“There were two vehicles, they let go of one after receiving a call as the inspector that was on duty there was in service of the MLA earlier. Almost 150 MLAs of the state have received Rs 15 crore each by now,” Raut alleged.

Pune Rural Police Seizes Cash Worth ₹5 Crore From Khed Shivapur Toll Booth

His statement comes after Pune Rural Police seized cash worth Rs 5 crore at Khed Shivapur toll booth during a Nakabandi late evening on October 21.

“A total of Rs 5 crore cash was found in the car during Nakabandi by Pune Rural Police at Khed Shivapur toll Naka… Four people who were travelling in the car including the driver were questioned,” Pune Rural SP, Pankaj Deshmukh said.

“Cash has been handed over to officials of the Income Tax Department for further probe,” Pune Rural SP, Pankaj Deshmukh said.

This comes as Maharashtra prepares for a single-phase election on November 20, with counting set for November 23.

Parties Intensify Preparations For Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024

Both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), and Congress — have intensified their preparations for the upcoming elections to 288 Assembly seats in the State. The BJP is part of the ruling Mahayuti alliance alongside the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) and Ajit Pawar-led NCP.

In the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections, the BJP won 105 seats, Shiv Sena secured 56, and Congress won 44 seats. In 2014, the BJP won 122 seats, Shiv Sena secured 63, and Congress won 42 seats.