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Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Will Mahayuti Secure Clean Sweep? Here’s What Exit Polls Have To Say

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Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Will Mahayuti Secure Clean Sweep? Here's What Exit Polls Have To Say

Mumbai: The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections have captured the nation’s attention, with exit polls projecting a potential victory for the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. If these predictions hold, the implications could ripple far beyond the state, reshaping political alliances and strategies.

Of the nine exit polls released after Wednesday’s polling, six forecast a clear majority for the Mahayuti, while two favor the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The remaining survey predicts a hung assembly, adding intrigue to an already charged political atmosphere.

Exit Polls

Surveys conducted by Poll Diary, Chanakya Strategies, Matriz, People Pulse, P-Marg, and CNX indicate that the Mahayuti will secure a comfortable majority, with seat projections ranging from 122 10 195. In contrast, SAS Group and Electoral Age give the edge to the MVA, projecting between 147 and 155 seats. Lok Shahi Marathi-Rudra stands apart, suggesting a hung assembly with both alliances within striking distance of forming the government. Poll Diary predicts the Mahayuti winning between 122 and 180 seats, with BJP emerging as the single largest party with 77-108 seats.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction is expected to secure 27-50 seats, while Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction might claim 18-28. On the other hand, the MVA could win 69-121 seats, with Congress (28-47), Shiv Sena (UBT) (16-35), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (25-39) splitting the tally. Chanakya Strategies suggests the BJP crossing 90 seats, while Shinde’s Sena and Pawar’s NCP faction may win 48 and 22 seats, respectively. The MVA’s Congress faction could secure 63 seats, Thack- erays Sena 35, and Pawar’s NCP around 40.

The CNX survey provides one of the highest estimates for Mahayuti, predicting 160–179 seats against the MVA’s 110–119. Conversely, the SAS Group and Electoral Age buck the trend, forecasting an MVA majority, with Congress as the dominant party in its fold. The Maharashtra elections have been characterized by shifting political allegiances and a highly polarized campaign.

Impact Of Splits

Splits in both the Shiv Sena and the NCP have significantly influenced the electoral landscape, with the BJP deftly maneuvering to capitalize on these divisions. Ajit Pawar’s defection from Sharad Pawar’s NCP has bolstered the Mahayuti’s urban and semi-urban appeal, while Eknath Shinde’s leadership has sought to consolidate rural and middle-class votes. The BJP’s campaign has centered on economic stability and infrastructure development, positioning itself as a harbinger of continuity and growth. On the other hand, the MVA, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, has tried to portray itself as a viable alternative, focusing on farmer distress, unemployment, and regional disparities. However, internal fractures and an inability to present a united front have undermined its appeal in crucial swing regions.

The 58.43% voter turnout, slightly lower than previous polls, indicates heightened interest in rural constituencies, traditionally seen as swing zones. The areas often determine the final outcome, and Mahayuti’s robust rural outreach could prove decisive. Exit polls suggest urban areas, particularly Mumbai and Pune, have leaned towards the BJP-led alliance, reflecting its resonance with middle-class and youth voters. However, the MVA has found support in agrarian districts, where anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction with government schemes are palpable. A decisive victory for the Mahayuti would bolster the BJP’s momentum ahead of the general elections, reaffirming its dominance in India’s political heartland.

A Key Battleground

Maharashtra, with its 48 parliamentary seats, is a key battleground for any national coalition, and a BJP-led sweep in the assembly could significantly influence Lok Sabha dynamics. Moreover, a Mahayuti win could further marginalize opposition parties like Congress and the NCP, which are already struggling to remain cohesive. It would also validate the BJP’s strategy of co-opting regional leaders like Ajit Pawar and Shinde, signaling a shift in how regional coalitions are formed and sustained. For the MVA, a strong performance could reinvigorate its standing as a formidable opposition bloc. It would demonstrate that voter dissatisfaction with the BJP’s policies can translate into tangible electoral gains, energizing anti-BJP forces across India.

All Eyes On The Final Tally

As counting day approaches on November 23, all eyes will be on the final tally. If the Mahayuti secures a decisive majority, it will not only cement the BJP’s position in Maharashtra but also reshape the national political landscape. Conversely, a surprise victory for the MVA or a hung assembly could pave the way for post-poll alliances, injecting further uncertainty into the political narrative. Ultimately, the Maharashtra elections have underscored the dynamic interplay of local and national politics, offering a preview of the strategies and alliances that will define India’s electoral future.

Maharashtra

Maha: FIR registered against SP leader Abu Azmi over his remarks on Aurangzeb

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Mumbai, March 4: An FIR has been registered against Maharashtra Samajwadi Party (SP) chief and MLA Abu Azmi over his remarks defending Mughal ruler Aurangzeb Alamgir, asserting that he was “not a cruel leader.”

His statement has sparked widespread controversy, drawing sharp criticism from political leaders across the spectrum.

The controversy erupted after Azmi made the remarks while addressing reporters in Mumbai at the commencement of the Maharashtra Assembly session.

Responding to Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s recent comparison of Leader of Opposition (LoP) in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee with Aurangzeb, Azmi argued that the Mughal ruler was being misrepresented.

Following his remarks, Shiv Sena MP Naresh Mhaske filed a complaint at Thane’s Wagle Estate Police Station, leading to an FIR being registered against Azmi under sections 299, 302, 356(1), and 356(2) of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS).

Azmi had stated, “Aurangzeb got several temples built. In Varanasi, he saved a Hindu girl child from a priest who had an evil eye on her. He had the priest trampled by elephants.”

Defending his stance, he had further elaborated, “I don’t consider Aurangzeb a cruel ruler. During that era, power struggles were political, not religious. Aurangzeb’s army had many Hindus, just as Chhatrapati Shivaji’s army had several Muslims.”

He also claimed that during Aurangzeb’s reign, India’s territorial boundaries extended up to Afghanistan, adding that the ruler was being unfairly vilified through a religious lens.

The comments have ignited a political storm, with Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde leading the charge against Azmi.

Strongly condemning his remarks, Shinde demanded an apology, stating, “He must apologise for this because Chhatrapati Sambhaji Maharaj was a patriot and a true nationalist. Aurangzeb was responsible for the brutal 40-day torture and execution of Sambhaji Maharaj. Glorifying Aurangzeb’s rule is a serious offence, and for this, Abu Azmi must apologise. By speaking against a patriot, he has positioned himself as anti-national.”

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Crime

‘Anyone Involved In Atrocities Against Women Should Be Treated As Terrorist, Hanged In Public’: Shiv Sena (UBT) Leader Aaditya Thackeray

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Mumbai: Shiv Sena (UBT) MLA Aaditya Thackeray on Monday demanded that anyone involved in atrocities against women should be treated as a terrorist and hanged in public, regardless of their party affiliation.

This comes after the alleged molestation case involving the daughter of Union MoS Raksha Khadse.

“Any person, be it from any party, who is involved in atrocities against women should be treated as a terrorist and hanged in public. Punishment should be given to such persons irrespective of which party they belong to…,” told Thackeray to media.

Earlier, the Union Minister of State for Youth Affairs and Sports approached the police on Sunday and filed a complaint in the alleged molestation case involving her minor daughter.

Khadse said that the accused not only harassed her daughter and her friends but also misbehaved with the police personnel. She added that the accused also made videos of the incident.

“My daughter and her friends went to a Maha Shivratri fair, where some people molested them. They also misbehaved with the police guard. They had the guts to molest and record videos, even in the presence of a police guard. This is not acceptable, and that is why I have lodged a complaint,” she said while speaking to media on Sunday.

Khadse also urged other women to come forward and file complaints. “The incident that happened with my daughter and her friends is condemnable… There may be many such mothers who are suffering from this. They should go to the police station and file complaints.” Following Raksha Khadse’s complaint, the Jalgaon police filed an FIR under the POCSO and IT acts.

One of the accused has been arrested by the police in the incidents, and as per the Sub Divisional Police Officer of Muktainagar Krishnat Pingale, the arrested person has many criminal cases against him.

He added that a total of seven people have been booked in the alleged molestation case with Union Minister Raksha Khadse’s daughter.

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Crime

Pune bus rape case: Shiv Sena calls for stronger safety measures for women in public transport

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Mumbai, March 3: Shiv Sena leader Manisha Kayande on Monday wrote a letter to Maharashtra Transport Minister Pratap Sarnaik, presenting a list of demands to enhance women’s safety in public transportation.

The move comes in response to the recent Pune bus rape case, which has sparked outrage over security lapses in the state’s transport system.

A 26-year-old woman was raped inside Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation (MSRTC) bus at the Swargate depot in Pune last week, leading to mass anger and outrage. After days of public outcry over the horrifying episode, the accused Dattatray Gade was arrested on Friday, after being on the run for almost a week.

Addressing the incident, Kayande called for immediate reforms to prevent such crimes in the future, stating, “After the Swargate incident, people were furious that such an act could happen inside a bus stand and in dilapidated buses.”

“Regardless of the situation, our demand is clear — every woman should be safe. CCTV cameras should be installed in all state transport buses, security guards should be stationed at every depot, and outdated buses should be phased out,” she told media.

She emphasised the importance of surveillance in crime prevention, stating, “Installing CCTV cameras will make it easier to catch offenders with perverted mindsets. This will aid in their arrest, prosecution, and rehabilitation. All these measures are crucial for ensuring women’s safety in public transport.”

Kayande also commented on the molestation case involving Union Minister of State Raksha Khadse’s daughter, calling it an “unfortunate” incident. However, she maintained that Maharashtra remains relatively safe for women.

“It is unfortunate that such incidents take place. The Union Minister herself was present and immediately filed a complaint, leading to swift police action. No matter who the accused are, strict action will be taken against them,” she added.

Meanwhile, Maharashtra Minister Shamburaj Desai condemned the molestation case, assuring that all accused would soon be apprehended.

“The Chief Minister has given strict orders to local police officers to take action. Minister Raksha Khadse’s daughter is like our daughter, and any harassment against her is completely unacceptable. We strongly oppose such acts,” he told media.

He further stated that many suspects have already been arrested, and police teams have been deployed to track down the remaining accused. “Soon, all of them will be in custody,” he said.

The Jalgaon police have so far arrested three individuals and detained a minor in connection with the harassment and molestation of Minister Khadse’s daughter.

The arrested suspects include Aniket Bhoyi, Kiran Mali, Anuj Patil, and one minor. Police have registered cases against seven individuals and are continuing their search for the remaining accused.

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