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Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Will Mahayuti Secure Clean Sweep? Here’s What Exit Polls Have To Say

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Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Will Mahayuti Secure Clean Sweep? Here's What Exit Polls Have To Say

Mumbai: The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections have captured the nation’s attention, with exit polls projecting a potential victory for the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. If these predictions hold, the implications could ripple far beyond the state, reshaping political alliances and strategies.

Of the nine exit polls released after Wednesday’s polling, six forecast a clear majority for the Mahayuti, while two favor the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The remaining survey predicts a hung assembly, adding intrigue to an already charged political atmosphere.

Exit Polls

Surveys conducted by Poll Diary, Chanakya Strategies, Matriz, People Pulse, P-Marg, and CNX indicate that the Mahayuti will secure a comfortable majority, with seat projections ranging from 122 10 195. In contrast, SAS Group and Electoral Age give the edge to the MVA, projecting between 147 and 155 seats. Lok Shahi Marathi-Rudra stands apart, suggesting a hung assembly with both alliances within striking distance of forming the government. Poll Diary predicts the Mahayuti winning between 122 and 180 seats, with BJP emerging as the single largest party with 77-108 seats.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction is expected to secure 27-50 seats, while Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction might claim 18-28. On the other hand, the MVA could win 69-121 seats, with Congress (28-47), Shiv Sena (UBT) (16-35), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (25-39) splitting the tally. Chanakya Strategies suggests the BJP crossing 90 seats, while Shinde’s Sena and Pawar’s NCP faction may win 48 and 22 seats, respectively. The MVA’s Congress faction could secure 63 seats, Thack- erays Sena 35, and Pawar’s NCP around 40.

The CNX survey provides one of the highest estimates for Mahayuti, predicting 160–179 seats against the MVA’s 110–119. Conversely, the SAS Group and Electoral Age buck the trend, forecasting an MVA majority, with Congress as the dominant party in its fold. The Maharashtra elections have been characterized by shifting political allegiances and a highly polarized campaign.

Impact Of Splits

Splits in both the Shiv Sena and the NCP have significantly influenced the electoral landscape, with the BJP deftly maneuvering to capitalize on these divisions. Ajit Pawar’s defection from Sharad Pawar’s NCP has bolstered the Mahayuti’s urban and semi-urban appeal, while Eknath Shinde’s leadership has sought to consolidate rural and middle-class votes. The BJP’s campaign has centered on economic stability and infrastructure development, positioning itself as a harbinger of continuity and growth. On the other hand, the MVA, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, has tried to portray itself as a viable alternative, focusing on farmer distress, unemployment, and regional disparities. However, internal fractures and an inability to present a united front have undermined its appeal in crucial swing regions.

The 58.43% voter turnout, slightly lower than previous polls, indicates heightened interest in rural constituencies, traditionally seen as swing zones. The areas often determine the final outcome, and Mahayuti’s robust rural outreach could prove decisive. Exit polls suggest urban areas, particularly Mumbai and Pune, have leaned towards the BJP-led alliance, reflecting its resonance with middle-class and youth voters. However, the MVA has found support in agrarian districts, where anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction with government schemes are palpable. A decisive victory for the Mahayuti would bolster the BJP’s momentum ahead of the general elections, reaffirming its dominance in India’s political heartland.

A Key Battleground

Maharashtra, with its 48 parliamentary seats, is a key battleground for any national coalition, and a BJP-led sweep in the assembly could significantly influence Lok Sabha dynamics. Moreover, a Mahayuti win could further marginalize opposition parties like Congress and the NCP, which are already struggling to remain cohesive. It would also validate the BJP’s strategy of co-opting regional leaders like Ajit Pawar and Shinde, signaling a shift in how regional coalitions are formed and sustained. For the MVA, a strong performance could reinvigorate its standing as a formidable opposition bloc. It would demonstrate that voter dissatisfaction with the BJP’s policies can translate into tangible electoral gains, energizing anti-BJP forces across India.

All Eyes On The Final Tally

As counting day approaches on November 23, all eyes will be on the final tally. If the Mahayuti secures a decisive majority, it will not only cement the BJP’s position in Maharashtra but also reshape the national political landscape. Conversely, a surprise victory for the MVA or a hung assembly could pave the way for post-poll alliances, injecting further uncertainty into the political narrative. Ultimately, the Maharashtra elections have underscored the dynamic interplay of local and national politics, offering a preview of the strategies and alliances that will define India’s electoral future.

Maharashtra

Maharashtra ‘foul deaths’: Grim Sharad Pawar meets kin of Beed Sarpanch, Parbhani Dalit man

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Beed/Parbhani (Maharashtra), Dec 21: As Maharashtra is politically rocked by two ‘most foul deaths’, Nationalist Congress Party (SP) President Sharad Pawar on Saturday visited the families of the victims – a murdered Sarpanch from Beed and a Dalit man of Parbhani found dead in judicial custody.

He was accompanied by NCP (SP) MPs Fauzia Khan (Rajya Sabha), Bajrang M. Sonawane (Beed) and Nilesh D. Lanke (Ahmednagar), besides MLAs Rajesh Tope (Ghansawangi) and Sandeep Kshirsagar (Beed), along with a large number of local units party leaders, workers and villagers.

Pawar, 84, took a helicopter to visit the two districts on Saturday – first going to Beed’s Massajog village whose Sarpanch (Headman) Santosh Pandit Deshmukh, 45, was abducted, brutally tortured and then killed on December 9, by some alleged political rivals when he attempted to foil a huge extortion racket at the AVG windmill company.

Subsequently, Pawar flew down to Parbhani where a Dalit man, Somnath Vyankat Suryawanshi, 35, a law student, was allegedly beaten by the police in the aftermath of the sacrilege of a statue of Dr B. R. Ambedkar (December 10), the subsequent violence and his arrest on December 12, and death in judicial remand on December 15.

In Beed, after lending a patient ear to the Sarpanch’s widow, mother, brother, daughter and other villagers, the NCP (SP) supremo readily agreed to foot the education bills of Deshmukh’s daughter Vaibhavi, and also assured all help for the family’s safe and secure future.

The Deshmukh family members broke down before Pawar and other visitors, accused the Beed Police of not conducting the probe properly, demanded that all the absconding accused must be arrested immediately and many from an adjoining village, and the suspected mastermind, Walmiki Karad still absconding 13 days after the killing.

Vaibhavi Deshmukh said she did not even get a final glimpse of her father who was ruthlessly beaten, and demanded that his killers should be given a similar tough punishment, and demanded justice for the family and the villagers, seeking that the trial be conducted in a fast track court.

Sonawane (MP from Beed), his eyes moist, said that there is an atmosphere of ‘terror’ in the village, when the Sarpanch could meet such a ghastly end, the people are wondering ‘whose turn will be next’.

Many have demanded the resignation of ruling NCP Minister Dhananjay Munde who is reportedly cosy with the fugitive prime wanted Walmiki Karad, a former Mayor of Parli Municipal Council.

Perturbed by the narrations, a distressed Pawar demanded that all the killers and the conspirators must be caught and taught a lesson, the Centre and state governments must take serious note.

“The masses are stunned, and they are people who contribute to the sugar industry in this region. What has happened is not acceptable as the Sarpanch was killed for something he was not connected with,” said Pawar grimly.

He said that there’s no need to bring in caste-community in this case, and pointed out how the NCP (SP) General Secretary Jitendra Awhad and Sandeep Kshirsagar raised the matter in the Legislative Assembly.

“You are not alone in this grief… we are with you, the lawyers are behind you. Please leave your fears behind. I shall convey your sentiments to the government. After Sonawane’s speech in Parliament plus Awhad and Kshirsagar’s statements in the Assembly, people were stunned and are asking what’s going on in different states in the country,” remarked Pawar.

In Parbhani, Pawar questioned the state government why violence was used when the crowds were protesting peacefully and said “this is not acceptable, justice for Suryawanshi’s death is non-negotiable”, while promising to submit the evidence handed over by the family to the CM and other authorities.

Condemning both the deaths, Pawar said that although the CM has announced several measures, compensation and probes, “nothing can bring back the two persons nor erase the grief of both the tragedy-hit families”.

Incidentally, after Pawar’s visits, his nephew and NCP President, Deputy CM Ajit Pawar also rushed to Beed and Parbhani this evening where he encountered angry crowds, and Congress Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha will travel to Parbhani on Monday afternoon.

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Maharashtra

Maharashtra: Rahul Gandhi To Visit Parbhani On December 23, Meet Family Of Dalit Youth Who Died In Judicial Custody

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Mumbai, Dec 21: Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi will visit Parbhani on Monday to meet the family of a Dalit youth who died under mysterious circumstances while in judicial custody last week, officials said here on Saturday.

Rahul Gandhi will reach Nanded by a special flight on Monday afternoon and from there drive to Parbhani to the home of the youth, Somnath Vyankat Suryawanshi and condole his family members.

Suryawanshi, 35, hailing from the Wadar community, was arrested in the violent incidents that ensued after the desecration of a statue of Dr B. R. Ambedkar near Parbhani Railway Station on December 10, by one ‘mentally disturbed’ person named Sopan Pawar.

After the violence, a tense shutdown was observed in Parbhani, while the local police swooped down and detained/arrested around 300 persons, mostly Dalits, including Suryawanshi on December 12.

Barely 72 hours later, he was found dead in judicial custody, sparking a massive furore with the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) allies Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (SP)-Shiv Sena (UBT), Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), CPI (Marxist), Republican Party of India (A), Republican Sena, Republican Party of India (K), and many other Dalit groups slamming the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party MahaYuti regime for the incident.

Following the uproar inside the Maharashtra Legislature in Nagpur and outside, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis announced compensation for the bereaved family, ordered a judicial probe and appointed a Special Investigation Team of the police to get to the depth of the matter.

Earlier, the Parbhani Police had claimed that Suryawanshi had complained of chest pains and was rushed to hospital for treatment. However, a provisional autopsy report from the Government Medical College, Aurangabad had stated that he succumbed to “shock following multiple injuries”, snowballing into a huge political row.

The MVA and Dalit leaders had vociferously alleged that he was brutally beaten by the police and had succumbed to grave injuries, as was later confirmed by the provisional post-mortem report of December 16.

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Maharashtra

Mumbai: Reddit User Shares Photo Of Uniformed Cop Riding Triple Seat With Helmetless Biker On ‘Police’ Labelled 2-Wheeler

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A uniformed policeman was seen riding triple seat on a two-wheeler, which was being ridden by a helmetless man. The vehicle carried a ‘police’ sticker and was reportedly spotted on the streets of Mumbai.

A fellow commuter who spotted this cop riding pillion and tripling on the bike captured a photo of the scene and posted it online. The photo captured the number plate of the vehicle. It read, “MH47 AE5165”.

“No helmet, triple seat…”

The photo of the policeman tripling with a helmetless biker was posted on Reddit. A user named Prasad uploaded the image online showing the cop violating traffic rules.

“No helmet, triple seat, Police named Activa and Police in uniform. What is the fine or charge? Is this legal only for the police?”, the Reddit post read.

Netizens react

The cop travelling on the third seat of a two-wheeler being ridden by a helmetless person raised eyebrows online, with many questioning the violation of traffic rules by the official.

Netizens reacted to the Reddit post and asked the user to share the image of X tagging Mumbai Police for necessary action.

“What do you mean rules? Rules are for common folks like us”, one sarcastically wrote. “Absolute power hai inke pass. It is so ironic they click pictures to fine others while riding the bike themselves endangering others”, commented another.

Fines under MV act

According to the official website of the Maharashtra government listing down offences and penalties for motorists violating traffic rules, a “driver of a two-wheeler involved in triple riding would attract Rs. 100 for first offence and Rs. 300 for second or subsequent offence as punishment”. The compounding fee under Section 200 of the Motor Vehicles Act in this case was Rs. 200.

Meanwhile, the penalty for failing to wear a protective head gear (Helmet) was stated to be Rs. 100 for first offence Rs. 300 for second or subsequent offence and the compounding fee for the offence was noted as Rs. 500.

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