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Macquarie says no signs of headwinds abating at Paytm

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Paytm. (Photo: Twitter/@Paytm)

 Foreign brokerage Macquarie said on Monday there is no signs of headwinds abating at Paytm as it slashed the target price to Rs 900.

One 97 Communications or Paytm stock was down almost 5.95 per cent on Monday at Rs 1,158.

Since November 18, 2021, Paytm’s stock price has fallen 40 per cent vs Sensex’s flat performance, Macquarie said.

Post the various business updates and results, Macquarie said revenue projections, particularly on the distribution side, is at risk and hence we pare down our revenue CAGR from 26 per cent to 2 per cent for FY21-26E.

“We are roughly cutting revenue estimates for FY21-26E on an average by 10 per cent every year due to lower distribution and commerce/cloud revenues offset partially by higher payment revenues. We cut our earnings (increase our loss projections) by 16-27 per cent for FY22-25E owing to lower revenues and higher employee and software expenses. We cut our TP sharply by 25 per cent owing to lower target multiple of 11.5x (Price to Sales ratio) (from 13.5x earlier) and lower sales numbers.”

Macquarie laid out several challenges which exist for Paytm from regulatory to business specific.

“‘The elephant in the room’- RBI’s proposed digital payments regulations could cap wallet charges. Payments business still forms 70 per cent of overall gross revenues for Paytm and hence any regulations capping charges could impact revenues significantly. Add to that, Paytm’s foray into insurance was recently rejected by the insurance regulator IRDA. We believe this could impact Paytm’s prospects of getting a banking license,” it added.

Senior management attrition is another cause of concern, it said. Senior executives have been resigning from Paytm which is a cause of concern and could impact business in our view if the current rate of attrition continues.

“Can it do lot of merchant loans? We aren’t sure,” Macquarie said.

“In the past 12 months, Paytm’s average ticket size for loans disbursed by it has been consistently coming down and stands at sub Rs 5,000 levels. At this size, we don’t think it is doing many merchant loans and most of the loans are small value BNPL loans. Hence the eventual distribution fees realised by them are likely to be much lower than our earlier estimates.

“We cut our revenue projections for FY22-26E and hence our CAGR reduces from 26 per cent to 23 per cent. The main reason is that we have pared down our commerce and particularly distribution business revenues.

“Competition will limit commerce revenue growth and distribution business will continue to be led by small ticket BNPL loans there by limiting revenue potential in our view.

“We cut our earnings projections or increase losses for FY22-26E driven by lower revenues and higher employee and software and cloud expenses. There is competition for tech talent, and we see pressure on employee expenses to remain. Key risks to our UP call are a change in regulations which allow monetisation of UPI and receipt of a banking license,” Macquarie added.

Business

India, New Zealand set to sign FTA for improved market access on April 27

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New Delhi, April 24: As India and New Zealand prepare to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Monday, both sides are expected to benefit from expanded trade ties and improved market access, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has said.

Taking to the social media platform X, Luxon said, “We will sign a Free Trade Agreement with India on Monday.”

In a video message, Luxon said the agreement would improve market access for New Zealand exporters, particularly manufacturers of marine jet systems used in boats and exported to over 70 countries.

He added that the deal would help reduce trade barriers and strengthen commercial engagement between the two countries.

He also noted that certain exporters currently face tariffs while accessing the Indian market, and said the agreement would gradually ease such duties, improving competitiveness and supporting higher trade flows.

Luxon said the FTA would support increased business activity, employment opportunities and economic growth in New Zealand, while also strengthening bilateral trade linkages with India.

He added that the agreement would bring ‘more jobs, higher wages and more opportunities,’ highlighting the broader economic impact of the deal.

Once signed, the FTA is expected to expand trade and investment ties between the two countries and enhance export opportunities on both sides in a large and growing global market environment.

Earlier this month, legal verification of the New Zealand-India FTA was completed, with both countries agreeing to sign the pact on April 27 in the presence of a large contingent of business representatives, New Zealand Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay said.

In a statement, McClay described the agreement as a “once-in-a-generation opportunity,” saying it would strengthen bilateral trade relations and provide improved access to each other’s markets.

He said that amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, strengthening trade partnerships remains important for long-term economic stability.

McClay added that signing the FTA would allow New Zealand to formally initiate parliamentary treaty examination, enabling public scrutiny of the agreement.

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Business

Gold and silver prices slip nearly 1 pc amid geopolitical tensions

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Mumbai, Gold and silver prices started the session on a weaker note on Friday, with both precious metals declining by nearly 1 per cent in early trade on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

Gold futures for June 5 opened 0.39 per cent or Rs 594 lower at Rs 1,51,167 per 10 grams compared to the previous close of Rs 1,51,761.

Later, the yellow metal touched an intra-day low of Rs 1,50,750, down 0.66 per cent or Rs 1,011. At the last count, it was trading at Rs 1,51,449, a decrease of Rs 312 or 0.21 per cent. During the session so far, gold has touched an intra-day high of Rs 1,51,457.

On the other hand, silver futures for May 5 declined as much as 0.95 per cent or Rs 2,313 to Rs 2,39,200, an intraday low. The white metal was trading at Rs 2,41,345, down Rs 168 or 0.07 per cent. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,41,382, down 0.05 per cent or Rs 131.

In the international market, precious metals also witnessed selling pressure. COMEX gold was down nearly 1 per cent at $4,684 per ounce, while COMEX silver also slipped around 1 per cent to $74.81 per ounce.

According to commodity analysts, gold and silver prices are under pressure due to a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields, and uncertainty over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

They further said that crude oil moving back above $100 per barrel has raised inflation concerns, adding to pressure on precious metals.

Moreover, Brent crude was trading at more than $100 per barrel or 2 per cent higher.

Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty also traded up to 1 per cent lower in early trade on Friday.

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Business

Sensex, Nifty post notable losses amid weak global cues, sustained FII selling

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Mumbai, April 23: The Indian equity markets posted sharp losses early on Thursday tracking cautious global cues and sustained foreign institutional selling, after the recent rally.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex lost 671 points, or 0.85 per cent, to reach 77,845 and Nifty dipped 179 points, or 0.74 per cent, to reach 24,198.

Main broad-cap indices showed divergence with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 dipped 0.34 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 0.16 per cent.

All sectoral indices traded in red except pharma as well as oil and gas up 0.71 per cent and 0.02 per cent. Nifty auto and consumer durables were the top losers down 1.03 per cent and 1.61 per cent respectively.

The immediate support zone of Nifty is placed at near 24,100–24,000, while resistance is observed in the 24,400–24,500 range.

In the previous session, benchmark indices on a weaker note after failing to sustain higher levels. Selling pressure was visible in banking and financial stocks following their recent outperformance.

IT stocks also remained weak, tracking subdued global cues and uncertainty in overseas markets. FMCG, Energy and other defensive sectors showed relative resilience.

The US markets gained after President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran, saying it was warranted due to Tehran’s “seriously fractured” government.

President Trump said the ceasefire will be in place until Iran submits a proposal or concludes talks, even as the US military continues its blockade of Iranian ports.

On the fundamental side, earnings remain a strong tailwind, with Q1 earnings growth tracking and forward EPS estimates seeing upward revision, market participants said.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index lost 0.74 per cent, and Shenzhen dipped 1.48 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.06 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.2 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.91 per cent.

The US markets ended in green overnight as Nasdaq gained 1.64 per cent. The S&P 500 advanced 1.05 per cent, and the Dow Jones added 0.69 per cent.

On April 22, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 2,078 crore in India, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were also net sellers of equities worth Rs 1,078 crore.

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