Business
Last year’s winners are this year’s losers in S&P index
The change in the global equity market leadership looks ever more pronounced in terms of the shift from growth to value stocks, Jefferies analyst Christopher Wood said.
Value stocks have now outperformed growth stocks by 16.1 per cent since mid-November as per the MSCI index, he said in his commentary, Greed and Fear.
Overall, the current situation can best be summarised as the inverse of Goldilocks. It also continues to look ever more the case that the FANG stocks peaked as a percentage of S&P500 market cap back in the summer of 2020, Wood said.
In this respect, the rotation out of growth stocks will probably not be completed until the leaders of the bull market (i.e. the FANG stocks) succumb in a more decisive fashion.
The 2000 Nasdaq rout could be a useful precedent here since the dotcoms collapsed first with the Nasdaq Composite turning down from March 2000. But it took another six months before the S&P500 started to decline, Wood said.
Meanwhile, the continuing strength of energy stocks this year must be a growing concern to ESG funds, which by now means most funds since they are missing out on performance.
This is all the more the case because renewable stocks are underperforming. The S&P500 Clean Energy Index has declined by 12% so far in 2022, compared with a 20 per cent gain in the S&P Global Energy Index, Wood said.
This is part of an evolving pattern where last year’s winners are this year’s losers and vice versa, though in the case of oil stocks they also performed last year. But then at the bottom in 2020 when, remember, the WTI Crude oil price turned negative on April 20, 2020, the energy sector subsequently shrunk to an all-time low as a percentage of S&P500 market cap in early November 2020. The energy sector’s share of S&P500 market cap declined from 4.2 per cent at the start of 2020 to a record low of 1.8 per cent on November 6, 2020 and has since risen to 3.5 per cent.
Global oil demand over the past 15 years has been revised up by about 2.9 billion barrels. This is the biggest-ever upward revision in demand and has certainly not received the publicity it merits. The revisions are primarily due to reassessments of consumption in Saudi Arabia and China.
The results are startling and confirm what GREED & fear has long been told by bullish oil experts: namely that is in recent years consistently underestimated oil demand, most particularly in developing countries.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open lower as IPO rush, Middle East tensions weigh on sentiment

Mumbai, Sep 7: Domestic equity benchmarks opened marginally lower on Monday weighed by concerns over liquidity absorption from a busy initial public offering calendar and persistent tensions in the Middle East that have pushed crude oil prices higher.
Nifty 50 started the trading session declining 14.55 points or 0.06 per cent at 23,883.15, while Sensex opened 69.38 points or 0.09 per cent lower at 76,446.05.
In early trade, Nifty Media index fell 1.26 per cent and Nifty IT index declined 1.15 per cent, leading sectoral losses.
Meanwhile, Nifty Auto, Nifty Chemicals, Nifty Private Bank, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Cement indices were also in the red zone.
In contrast, Nifty Oil & Gas index rose 0.06 per cent, while Nifty Metal, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Realty gained up to 0.38 per cent.
According to analysts, the equity market had been drifting lower for four weeks despite positive economic and corporate earnings news with elevated crude prices and the IPO boom emerging as key headwinds.
“There are eleven mainboard IPOs hitting the market this week. The mega IPOs are also expected this month and the offerings could absorb significant liquidity and divert investor focus from the secondary market,” according to them.
Technically, the market experts said the Nifty’s downside marker at 23,860 remained intact, while the index faced resistance near 23,960. The 23,800 level was seen as a key support with a break below it potentially opening the way towards the low 23,000s with an initial objective of 23,570.
The 24,150-24,215 region remains a hurdle to be crossed before strength is confirmed, analysts said.
In addition, crude oil prices traded higher on Monday as rising tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Business
Oil price, US jobs data, rising bond yields likely to drive Indian stock market next week

Mumbai, Sep 6: The Indian stock market is likely to remain sensitive to global cues next week, with crude oil prices, rising bond yields, stronger-than-expected US jobs data and foreign investor flows emerging as key factors that could shape investor sentiment. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran, uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and shifting expectations around US interest rates are expected to keep volatility elevated.
The benchmark indices ended higher on Friday, but surrendered most of their intra-day gains and closed near the day’s lows after the closing auction session (CAS). The Sensex gained 363 points to close at 76,515, while the Nifty rose more than 24 points to finish below the 23,898 mark.
The broader market performance remained mixed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 slipping into negative territory, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 managed to end in the green.
One of the biggest concerns for investors heading into the new week is the renewed rise in crude oil prices. Oil gained around 8 per cent during the week after the US and Iran exchanged strikes following a month-long lull, reviving fears of a supply disruption as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut for oil transit.
The prolonged disruption has also prompted a reassessment of crude price expectations. Citi has raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 a barrel from its earlier estimate of $80, citing expectations of a longer-than-anticipated timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher oil prices could put additional pressure on inflation and corporate costs in oil-importing economies such as India. Investors will therefore closely monitor developments in the Middle East and any indications of when normal oil shipments through the strategic waterway could resume.
Another major concern is the sharp rise in global bond yields. A bond-market selloff of a scale not seen in decades has pushed yields across several major economies to multi-year highs. Markets are currently dealing with a combination of oil-driven inflation, expectations of tighter monetary policy and deteriorating fiscal conditions.
The rise in crude prices and fuel costs has increased inflationary pressures while also pushing up government borrowing costs globally. At the same time, investors are assessing the possibility that tighter financial conditions could weigh on economic growth if there is no meaningful easing in inflationary pressures.
US monetary policy expectations could add another layer of volatility. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has brought the possibility of a September interest-rate hike back into focus, creating a difficult policy choice for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh amid pressure from US President Donald Trump for lower borrowing costs.
US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, almost three times the number expected by economists. The labour force participation rate also increased to 61.6 per cent. Despite the larger pool of available workers, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 per cent.
Business
Sensex, Nifty decline for 4th week as oil shock keeps investors cautious

New Delhi, Sep 5: Indian equity markets remained volatile and under pressure through the week, with the benchmark Nifty extending its losing streak to four consecutive weeks, as surging crude oil prices and escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities overshadowed strong domestic economic data.
The Nifty ended the week at 23,897.70, gaining 0.10 per cent on Friday, but still registered a weekly decline of around 1.2 per cent. The index snapped a four-session losing streak, although it remained below key moving averages and continued to show a weak near-term technical structure.
The Sensex closed the week at 76,515.43, rising 362.57 points, or 0.48 per cent, on Friday. Despite the late-week recovery, the index declined around 1 per cent over the week and remained caught in a broader corrective and consolidation phase.
The biggest pressure on Indian equities came from crude oil, with Brent crude rising more than 8 per cent during the week and WTI crude gaining over 9 per cent. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and concerns over possible disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed up the geopolitical risk premium in global energy markets.
The rise in oil prices came despite encouraging domestic economic indicators. India’s economy grew 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of FY27, comfortably exceeding market expectations, while strong GST collections also pointed to continued momentum in economic activity. However, these positive developments failed to provide a sustained boost to equities as investors remained focused on the potential impact of higher crude prices on inflation, the current account and corporate profitability.
Foreign institutional investors continued to remain a source of pressure, recording net outflows of around Rs 5,600 crore during the week. Domestic institutional investors, however, provided strong support, with net inflows of around Rs 18,560 crore, helping absorb a significant portion of the foreign selling.
On a month-to-date basis, FIIs remained net buyers of approximately Rs 2,374 crore in September, while DIIs recorded net purchases of around Rs 18,568 crore. Strong domestic institutional participation has emerged as an important stabilising factor for Indian equities, although persistent foreign selling could continue to limit the market’s upside.
Investors will now closely track the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could play an important role in determining the direction of global markets.
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