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India’s July-Sep GDP growth seen at 7-8%

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GDP

The growth rate of India’s GDP for the July-September quarter is likely to remain in the range of 7-8 per cent.

In the first quarter of financial year 2021-22, India’s GDP witnessed a growth of 20.1 per cent compared to the same period of the last fiscal.

According to the EcoScope report of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL), there would be some moderation in Economic Activity Index-Gross Value Added (EAI-GVA) growth in July 2021, largely on account of weaker fiscal spending.

It, however, noted that private spending — consumption and investments — on the other hand, has grown decently.

“Although there is no one-to-one correlation between our EAIs and the official GDP/GVA due to the underlying differences, our composite indices move in sync with the official real GDP (ex-discrepancies) and real GVA estimates,” it said.

“Accordingly, we expect real GVA growth of 7-8 per cent YoY in 2QFY22 v/s 20.1 per cent YoY growth in 1QFY22.”

As per Motilal Oswal’s estimates, total consumption grew 5.1 per cent YoY in July 2021 against 2.7 per cent in June 2021 and ‘-12.1’ per cent in July 2020.

Within consumption, private consumption grew at a three-month high of 6.9 per cent YoY, though government consumption fell 31 per cent YoY in July 2021.

Excluding government consumption, EAI-GVA grew faster at 7.1 per cent YoY in July 2021, faster than 3.2 per cent YoY in June 2021, but slower from March-May 2021.

Further, faster growth in imports compared to exports led to negative contribution from external trade to EAI-GDP in July 2021.

Total investments grew at five-month lows of 12.1 per cent YoY in July 2021 against 18.5 per cent in June 2021 and 21 per cent decline in July 2020.

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Indian stock market in positive territory, overall sentiment remains balanced

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Mumbai, The Indian stock markets witnessed a strong rebound last week after six consecutive weeks of decline, supported by favourable global cues, according to analysts.

Sentiment remained buoyant amid optimism surrounding a temporary US–Iran ceasefire, although lingering geopolitical uncertainties capped the pace of gains as the week progressed.

“The rally was further aided by a stable domestic macro backdrop, with broader markets outperforming the benchmarks. Despite elevated volatility marked by sharp mid-week gains and subsequent profit booking, indices trended higher,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

The Nifty and Sensex gained around 6 per cent to close near the week’s highs at 24,050.60 and 77,550.25, respectively.

According to analysts, global developments remained a key influence, with the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran improving risk appetite, though uncertainty around its sustainability persisted.

Meanwhile, a sharp decline in crude oil prices below the $100 mark eased domestic concerns and triggered a strong rebound across markets.

On the domestic front, the RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and retained a neutral stance, highlighting the need to balance inflation risks with growth support.

The central bank also revised FY26 GDP growth upward to 7.6 per cent while projecting FY27 growth at 6.9 per cent.

Inflation projections were raised to 4.6 per cent for FY27, reflecting risks from elevated energy prices and potential weather-related disruptions.

Market watchers said that overall sentiment remains balanced but cautious, shaped by global cues, crude oil price movements and ongoing foreign investor activity.

Downside appears to be relatively contained, but upside momentum remains constrained, pointing to a recovery that is still tentative and low in conviction, they added.

Economic indicators showed signs of moderation, with the Services PMI easing to 57.5 and the Composite PMI to 57.0 in March.

However, global agencies remained constructive, with the World Bank raising India’s growth outlook, supported by strong domestic demand and structural factors, said analysts.

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Business

Crude oil prices tank up to 20 pc over Iran ceasefire announcement

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New Delhi, April 8: Global crude oil prices on Wednesday plunged sharply up to 20 per cent, after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran that includes a pledge to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway at the heart of the world’s most acute energy crisis in decades.

The international benchmark Brent crude futures shed nearly 16 per cent or $17.39 to $91.88, hitting an intraday low, while US WTI crude declined almost 20 per cent or $21.90 to $91.05.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows, has been at the centre of the conflict. Iran had restricted passage for several weeks, contributing to rising prices and supply concerns. Markets had been on edge ahead of Trump’s deadline for Iran to reach a deal, with traders fearing a major escalation could disrupt shipments across the Gulf and send prices sharply higher.

Oil prices had surged in recent weeks amid fears that the strait could be closed or severely restricted. The waterway handles shipments critical to global supply chains, including crude oil and liquefied natural gas.

The US-Israel-Iran conflict has been paused for two weeks after approximately 40 days of hostilities that began in February.

President Trump’s shift in stance came just ahead of his stated deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk extensive strikes on its civilian infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Iran indicated it would halt its military operations provided attacks against it ceased simultaneously. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a formal statement, confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be ensured for two weeks in coordination with Iranian armed forces.

The conflict had triggered an unprecedented surge in oil prices in March, with gains exceeding 60 per cent during the period.

Additionally, Indian equity benchmarks also rallied sharply on the development, trading more than 3 per cent higher in early trade. The Sensex jumped nearly 4 per cent, while the Nifty surged 3.5 per cent to their respective intraday highs.

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Employees’ body to meet on April 13 as Central govt staff keen on 8th Pay Commission decisions

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New Delhi, April 7: Millions of Central government employees and pensioners await the outcome of the drafting committee of the National Council (Joint Consultative Machinery) on April 13 to get cues on the 8th Pay Commission salary revision, a report said on Tuesday.

The drafting committee meeting scheduled for 11:00 am at the JP Choubey Memorial Library (AIRF office premises) here will review a final common memorandum and discuss pay scale revisions, annual increments, allowances and other benefits, the report from NDTV Profit said.

“The April 13 meeting is in continuation of the March 12, 2026, meeting when all drafting committee members of the 8th Pay Commission met to discuss the common memorandum of all employee and pensioner bodies,” said NC-JCM secretary, Shiv Gopal Mishra, in a letter to members of the drafting committee.

The government has not yet announced the official date for the salary increase. Arrears will be calculated based on the date fixed for the implementation of the 8th Pay Commission

even as employee and pensioner groups press for arrears to be calculated from January 1, 2026, the report said.

The Federation of National Postal Organisations has asked the government to merge the 58 per cent dearness allowance with basic pay and give interim relief from the same date.

The salary increase will hinge on the fitment factor the government adopts which analysts expect to exceed 2.5. Some employee groups have sought a fitment factor of 3.15, even though the official decision may take over a year, the report said.

Pankaj Chaudhary, MoS Finance, told Parliament in March that the 8th Pay Commission will make its recommendations on pay, allowances, pensions, and other benefits for central government employees. The 8th Pay Commission is expected to complete this work within 18 months from November 2025.

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