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India’s July-Sep GDP growth seen at 7-8%

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GDP

The growth rate of India’s GDP for the July-September quarter is likely to remain in the range of 7-8 per cent.

In the first quarter of financial year 2021-22, India’s GDP witnessed a growth of 20.1 per cent compared to the same period of the last fiscal.

According to the EcoScope report of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL), there would be some moderation in Economic Activity Index-Gross Value Added (EAI-GVA) growth in July 2021, largely on account of weaker fiscal spending.

It, however, noted that private spending — consumption and investments — on the other hand, has grown decently.

“Although there is no one-to-one correlation between our EAIs and the official GDP/GVA due to the underlying differences, our composite indices move in sync with the official real GDP (ex-discrepancies) and real GVA estimates,” it said.

“Accordingly, we expect real GVA growth of 7-8 per cent YoY in 2QFY22 v/s 20.1 per cent YoY growth in 1QFY22.”

As per Motilal Oswal’s estimates, total consumption grew 5.1 per cent YoY in July 2021 against 2.7 per cent in June 2021 and ‘-12.1’ per cent in July 2020.

Within consumption, private consumption grew at a three-month high of 6.9 per cent YoY, though government consumption fell 31 per cent YoY in July 2021.

Excluding government consumption, EAI-GVA grew faster at 7.1 per cent YoY in July 2021, faster than 3.2 per cent YoY in June 2021, but slower from March-May 2021.

Further, faster growth in imports compared to exports led to negative contribution from external trade to EAI-GDP in July 2021.

Total investments grew at five-month lows of 12.1 per cent YoY in July 2021 against 18.5 per cent in June 2021 and 21 per cent decline in July 2020.

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Sensex, Nifty open flat with positive bias amid global optimism

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Mumbai, Oct 9: Indian stock markets opened flat but with a slight positive tone on Thursday, taking cues from upbeat global trends.

At the opening bell, the Sensex was up 17 points, or 0.02 per cent, at 81,791, while the Nifty gained 17 points, or 0.07 per cent, to trade at 25,063.

“From a technical standpoint for Nifty, a sustained move above 25,150 could open the door for an upside toward 25,200–25,250,” analysts said.

“On the downside, immediate support is placed around 24,950–24,900, which may serve as potential accumulation zones for long positions,” they added.

“Overall, the index is expected to remain range-bound between 24,900 and 25,200 in the near term,” experts mentioned.

Broader markets also saw some strength, with the Nifty MidCap index rising 0.3 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index advancing 0.21 per cent.

On the institutional front, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their buying streak for the second consecutive session on October 8, purchasing equities worth Rs 81 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 329 crore on the same day.

Asian markets traded higher after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit record closing highs overnight on Wall Street.

Investor sentiment also improved after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of a US-brokered peace plan to pause fighting in Gaza and allow the release of hostages and prisoners.

According to experts, traders remained cautiously optimistic, tracking global cues and geopolitical developments.

“The results season starting today will be keenly watched by the market. IT stocks have witnessed some recovery from the bottom, but the headwinds for the segment continue to be strong,” market experts said.

“Banking stocks have largely remained range bound on muted earnings expectations. The NIM pressure and rising delinquencies in the unsecured loan segments will weigh on banking results generally. So, watch out for the out-performers in the segment,” they added.

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World Bank flags rising poverty levels in Pakistan

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New Delhi, Oct 8: The World Bank has expressed serious concern over Pakistan’s economy as the country has failed to reduce poverty despite massive loans injected by the IMF.

The current model of growth has failed to ameliorate the conditions of the poor, and the headcount ratio (HCR) has surged to its highest level of 25.3 per cent in the last eight years, which is a 7 per cent increase in HCR since 2023, the World Bank report states.

Instead of concentrating on rural development to reduce poverty, the Pakistan government has been focused more on increasing defence expenditure.

The World Bank report titled “Reclaiming Momentum Towards Prosperity: Pakistan’s Poverty, Equity and Resilience Assessment” released on September 23, mentions that even the country’s aspiring middle class (constituting 42.7 per cent of its population) is “struggling to achieve full economic security”.

Pakistan’s once-promising poverty reduction trajectory has come to a troubling halt, reversing years of hard-fought gains.

After dramatically reducing poverty from 64.3 per cent in 2001 to 21.9 per cent in 2018 — declining by 3 percentage points annually until 2015 before slowing to less than 1 percentage point per year — recent compounding shocks have pushed poverty rates back up to a projected 25.3 per cent by 2023-24, the report states.

The economic model that delivered early wins has reached its limits, with 14 per cent of the population in 2018 remaining vulnerable to falling back into poverty when faced with shocks.

Compounding crises — Covid-19, economic instability, devastating floods, and record-high inflation—have further exposed systemic weaknesses, leaving many in low-productivity activities and unable to cope with these challenges, the report points out.

Bold policy reforms are now essential to address structural imbalances, prevent sliding back into poverty during shocks, and tackle the persistent challenges in remote areas. In this context, this Poverty, Equity, and Resilience Assessment , the first since the early 2000s, looks at how poverty has evolved in Pakistan by combining traditional and non-traditional data, offering detailed analysis and strategic direction on the country’s efforts and challenges to reduce poverty and promote equity.

This comprehensive assessment aims to provide a roadmap for policymakers and stakeholders to address poverty and equity challenges in Pakistan effectively, the report added.

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Securing India’s cyberspace a shared responsibility: Centre

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New Delhi, Oct 8: As cybersecurity incidents doubled in 2 years from 10.29 lakh in 2022 to 22.68 lakh in 2024, the Centre said on Wednesday that securing India’s cyberspace is a shared responsibility where the government and citizens must work together to combat cyber fraud.

Over 1,05,796 police officers are now registered on the CyTrain portal, with more than 82,704 certificates issued, equipping frontline personnel with essential cybercrime investigation skills, according to an official statement.

With financial support of Rs 132.93 crore from the Centre, cyber forensic-cum-training laboratories have trained over 24,600 personnel in cybercrime investigation, digital forensics, and preventive measures.

Further, as of March 2025, CERT-In facilitated 109 cybersecurity mock drills, engaging 1,438 organisations from different states and sectors to assess cyber readiness and build resilience, the government said

India’s digital expansion has connected over 86 per cent of households to the internet, increasing the risk of cyber fraud. Advanced forensics, big data analytics, and indigenous tools have bolstered national cyber resilience, the release said.

As India celebrates its rapid 5G rollout, with 1.2 billion mobile subscribers and 970 million internet users, the focus on secure, inclusive, and scalable digital ecosystems reinforces the country’s position as a global hub for trusted and transformative digital infrastructure, the release said.

The government cited evolving threats, including spoofing, phishing, and AI-driven deepfakes, where individuals are lured into revealing sensitive information through deceptive emails or messages, which are also on the rise.

As UPI was targeted using compromised mobile numbers, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) launched the Financial Fraud Risk Indicator (FRI), which classified suspicious numbers as medium, high, or very high risk.

India’s legal framework includes the Information Technology Act and the Digital Personal Data Protection Act, along with operational platforms like CERT-In, NCIIPC, Samanvaya, and the Sahyog portal to combat the rise of cybersecurity threats, the release said.

Further, the National Cyber Crime Reporting Portal has been launched to enable citizens to report complaints relating to various categories of cybercrime, with a special focus on offences targeting women and children. A dedicated cybercrime helpline number, 1930, provides immediate assistance to victims of online financial fraud, the release noted.

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