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Indian economy to incur additional $70bn burden in FY23 on rising crude prices

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Indian economy is expected to incur an additional $70 billion burden (or 1.9 per cent of the country’s GDP) in FY23 as compared to the current fiscal at an average crude price of $120 per barrel, said brokerage house Kotak Securities.

Steep crude prices will pose stiff challenges in the form of higher current account deficit, higher inflation, and lower growth, it said.

Ongoing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine as well as lack of fresh supplies pushed crude oil price to a 14-year high of $130 per barrel.

“The additional cost will be borne by the government in the form of lower excise revenues and higher Minimum Support Prices, households in the form of higher retail prices of petroleum products and companies; however, companies will pass on higher fuel costs to households eventually.”

“MSPs of various crops sharply increased in input costs and procurement to support farm incomes. We would not rule out a 10-12 per cent increase in MSPs in FY2023 versus the average 3-4 per cent increase seen in the past few years.”

The government may have to cut excise duty on diesel and gasoline further to mitigate the impact on consumers, it added.

Assuming an excise duty reduction on diesel and gasoline by Rs 10 per litre, excise revenues may decline by $20 billion, it said.

Further, the brokerage believes households will have to bear the bulk of the burden of higher gasoline, diesel and LPG prices assuming oil companies do not bear any share and the government bears some share on auto fuels.

Business

Indian markets trade higher in early deals despite renewed geopolitical tensions

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Mumbai, July 9: Indian equity benchmarks advanced in early trade on Thursday despite renewed geopolitical tensions and a rebound in crude oil prices to the $80-a-barrel mark.

Sensex surged as much as 0.32 per cent or about 250 points to hit an intraday high of 76,752 in morning trade, while Nifty climbed 0.20 per cent or 46.90 points to 23,928.95.

Sectorally, Nifty Consumer Durables led the gains, rising 1.39 per cent, followed by Nifty Mid-Small Financial Services (0.95 per cent), Nifty Cement (0.69 per cent), Nifty Private Bank (0.66 per cent), Nifty PSU Bank (0.64 per cent) and Nifty Auto (0.62 per cent).

In contrast, Nifty IT emerged as the top sectoral loser, declining more than 1 per cent.

Among Nifty constituents, Infosys, HCLTech, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Hindalco Industries fell between 1 and 2 per cent.

According to market experts, geopolitical tensions have once again weighed on investor sentiment, with US President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran triggering selling pressure in the market.

However, they noted that Brent crude at around $80 a barrel was not yet a major concern for India, adding that continued foreign institutional investor (FII) buying and stable oil prices could help large-cap stocks, especially financials and automobiles, remain resilient.

Moreover, the American President Trump has said that the US had carried out fresh strikes against Iran overnight in response to what he described as Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

He said, “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum…They are sick people. They’re led by sick people. They are vicious, violent people and if they had a nuclear weapon, they would use it. As far as I am concerned, it’s over. I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars. We make a deal…Everyone’s agreed. No nuclear weapon. We make a deal. They go outside and talk to the press. They say we never even talked about it. There’s something wrong with them. They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.”

International benchmark Brent crude rose 1.49 per cent to around $80 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained more than 2 per cent to $75 a barrel.

Asian markets were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei rose nearly 2 per cent, while South Korea’s Kospi edged higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, however, declined about 1 per cent.

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Crude oil surges over 6 pc to near $80 as Trump says Iran ceasefire is ‘over’

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New Delhi, July 8: Global crude oil prices surged more than 6 per cent on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was effectively over following a fresh round of American military strikes on Iran, intensifying concerns over energy supplies from West Asia.

International oil benchmark Brent crude climbed as much as 6.52 per cent or $4.69 to trade near $80 a barrel. Similarly, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced more than 6 per cent or $4.85 to around $75 a barrel.

Speaking in Ankara on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit, Trump told reporters that the US had carried out fresh strikes against Iran overnight in response to what he described as Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

He said, “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum…They are sick people. They’re led by sick people. They are vicious, violent people and if they had a nuclear weapon, they would use it. As far as I am concerned, it’s over. I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars. We make a deal…Everyone’s agreed. No nuclear weapon. We make a deal. They go outside and talk to the press. They say we never even talked about it. There’s something wrong with them. They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.”

Trump also described Iranian leaders in strongly critical terms and said he no longer wished to pursue negotiations with Tehran, expressing scepticism about the prospects of any future agreement.

His remarks came amid renewed tensions in the region following a series of attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.

The sharp rise in crude prices weighed on investor sentiment, with Indian equity markets witnessing broad-based selling.

As of 3 pm, Sensex fell around 1,900 points or more than 2 per cent to 76,259, while Nifty was down nearly 600 points or over 2 per cent at 23,805.

The latest rally in crude prices marked a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of abundant supply after OPEC+ announced higher production quotas and major Middle Eastern producers increased output.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee weakened by 20 paise to 95.16 against the US dollar in early trade. The domestic currency opened at 95.15 against the greenback.

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South Indian Bank shares tank 10 pc after RBI nod for new CEO

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Shares of private lender South Indian Bank tumbled nearly 10 per cent on Wednesday after the lender announced that it had received the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) approval for the appointment of Mahesh Muralidhar Pai as its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer (MD & CEO).

The private banking stock declined as much as 9.86 per cent to Rs 43.02 on the BSE. At around 12:05 pm, it was trading at Rs 44.23, down more than 7 per cent.

In a regulatory filing, the private sector lender said the RBI has approved the appointment of Pai as MD and CEO for a period of three years with effect from October 1.

The bank said the proposal for Pai’s appointment will be placed before its Board of Directors at the meeting scheduled for July 16.

In addition, the appointment will require shareholders’ approval in accordance with the Companies Act, 2013, and the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations.

Pai (50) is currently serving as Chief General Manager at Canara Bank, where he heads digital banking and innovation, according to the exchange filing.

With nearly three decades of banking experience, he has worked across governance, strategy, treasury, foreign exchange, retail banking, agriculture and MSME credit. He has also led several strategic initiatives at Canara Bank, including the establishment of its gold loan vertical, and has previously headed one of the bank’s largest zones.

Moreover, he serves as a Director on the boards of Karnataka State Financial Corporation and Canara Bank Securities Ltd, the filing added.

According to BSE data, the stock has touched a 52-week high of Rs 49.90 and a 52-week low of Rs 28.13.

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