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Indian economy in robust spot globally in 2025 with high frequency indicators picking up growth

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New Delhi, Jan 2: As 2025 begins on a note of heightened global uncertainties ahead of the US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, India continues to be in a much stronger position with high frequency indicators showing a pick up in the pace of growth in the third quarter of current fiscal (Q3 FY25), according to a report on Thursday.

GST collections, services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), air passenger growth, and vehicle registrations saw a notable improvement in Q3 versus Q2, according to a Bank of Baroda (BoB) report.

On the other hand, in China, while the manufacturing sector is expanding slowly, lifting domestic consumption and reviving the real estate sector is proving to be a task for the administration.

The US economy is giving mixed signals regarding growth. While the labour market appears to be softening and manufacturing activity is weak, retail sales, pending home sales, and the service sector seem to be doing well. In Europe, manufacturing activity is unable to pick up pace so far, while the service sector is regaining ground.

In India, the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.2 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY25 from 1.3 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY24.

“While the trade deficit was higher, buoyant services exports as well as continued strength in remittances underscored the lower CAD. Our year-end market analysis shows that both Sensex and Nifty 50 surged by 8.7 per cent and 9 per cent in CY24. Sensex touched an all-time high this year as it breached the mark of 85,500,” said Sonal Badhan, economist, Bank of Baroda.

Sectors including real estate, consumer durables, and IT were amongst the best-performing stocks in CY24. The Indian rupee depreciated by 2.8 per cent in 2024, but remained one of the better-performing currencies among its peers.

The pressure on yields was lower and boosted demand flow as the market witnessed the bond inclusion in the JP Morgan emerging market index, Bloomberg, and FTSE Russel.

According to the report, high frequency indicators have shown notable improvement in the October-December 2024 period. GST collections have jumped by 8.3 per cent (YoY) in Q3 to Rs 5.5 lakh crore, and are also up from Rs 5.3 lakh crore in Q2, signalling further improvement in consumption pattern.

Apart from this, helped by festive demand, other indicators of urban consumption have also improved. Air passenger air traffic registered 11.6 per cent growth in Q3, compared with 7.8 per cent growth registered in Q2. Services PMI averaged 59.2 in Q3 versus 58.1 in the same period last year.

“We expect quarterly corporate results to also show improved performance in Q3,” said Badhan.

On the central bank actions, the report said growth is expected to recover in H2 FY25 and inflation abating, “we see a scope of 25 bps rate cut in February 2025. We expect a cumulative easing of 50-75bps in the current cycle.”

Furthermore, with the expectation of a pick-up in government spending followed by improvement in both government and private investment in H2, the IIP growth will perform a lot better in H2 FY25 from H1 FY25, it noted.

National

Hindi ‘imposition’ row: Raj Thackeray to organise morcha on July 6

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Mumbai, June 26: Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray on Thursday announced to organise a morcha from Girgaum to Azad Maidan in Mumbai on July 6 to protest against the “imposition” of Hindi as the third language in Marathi and English schools.

He alleged that it was a conspiracy to destroy the Marathi language, which has recently been awarded Classical Status, saying that the party will not allow the “imposition” of the Hindi language in the state.

Raj Thackeray was speaking to the reporters after meeting School Education Minister Dadaji Bhuse.

“There will be no compulsion in the language, be it Hindi or any other. I am appealing to all the parties that on July 6, we have decided to take out a morcha from Girgaum. There will be no flags in this morcha. It will be a morcha of Marathi people; we are inviting everyone. I have chosen Sunday so that everyone can come,” said Raj Thackeray.

He added that all literary figures, Marathi lovers, film personalities and all political parties should participate in the morcha.

“We should come together for Maharashtra without any arguments,” he said.

Speaking about his meeting with Minister Bhuse, Raj Thackeray said that there is a shortage of teachers for the Hindi language. But the government is saying that it will recruit 10,000 teachers.

“Do you have the money to pay the salaries? There are many big issues before the state, so why is it coming to the language? Is there an attempt to hide something big?” he asked.

“Will you get work in films by learning Hindi? Maharashtra is big because of the education system. Then why this argument in favour of Hindi to make Maharashtra great,” Raj Thackeray said.

“If the government is going to promote arts and sports to increase the merits of students instead of a language, then we have no objection,” he said.

Raj Thackeray said that his party does not accept the government’s stand on Hindi at all.

“We will remain opposed to the imposition of Hindi,” he said.

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No toll proposed for 2-wheelers, says Nitin Gadkari amid viral reports

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New Delhi, June 26: Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways, Nitin Gadkari, on Thursday dismissed media reports suggesting that two-wheelers will be required to pay tolls on National Highways from July 15.

He called the reports misleading and clarified that no such proposal is under consideration.

Taking to social media platform X, the Union Minister said: “Some media houses are spreading misleading news about toll tax being levied on two-wheelers. No such decision has been proposed.”

“Two-wheelers will continue to be exempt from tolls. Spreading such baseless news without verifying the facts is not responsible journalism. I strongly condemn it,” the Union Minister stated.

The clarification comes after a report claimed that toll payment would soon be made mandatory for two-wheelers at all national highway toll plazas, and that riders would need to equip their vehicles with FASTag.

The report also claimed that violators could face penalties of up to Rs 2,000. This comes just days after Gadkari announced a new annual FASTag pass worth Rs 3,000 for private four-wheelers, aimed at simplifying toll payments and reducing congestion.

Set to launch on August 15, the pass will be valid for one year or 200 trips — whichever comes first — and can be activated via the Rajmarg Yatra app or official websites of the NHAI and the MoRTH.

The government has significantly expanded its highway infrastructure in the last decade, with the total length of national highways increasing from 91,287 km in 2014 to 1,46,204 km in 2024 — a rise of over 60 per cent.

The pace of highway construction has also tripled from 11.6 km/day in 2014 to 34 km/day in 2024.

As of now, 1,366 highway projects covering 32,366 km are under construction across the country, many of which are expected to be completed in phases by FY 2028.

With a 570 per cent increase in the road transport and highways budget over the last decade, the Centre continues to prioritise infrastructure development — but for now, two-wheeler riders can rest assured that tolls are not on the horizon.

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SC agrees to hear plea against Maratha quota law in July

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New Delhi, June 26: The Supreme Court on Thursday agreed to hear, in July, a plea challenging the decision of the Bombay High Court, which had directed that the interim order passed last year, allowing the Maratha community to avail 10 per cent reservation in educational institutions and public employment, will continue to remain in force.

After a lawyer mentioned the matter for urgent listing, a Bench of Justices K.V. Viswanathan and N.K. Singh assured of listing the plea on the re-opening of the top court (i.e. after July 14).

In an order passed on June 11 this year, the Bombay High Court allowed the Maratha community to provisionally avail the benefit of 10 per cent reservation, subject to the final outcome of the petitions challenging the validity of the contentious Maharashtra State Reservation for Socially and Educationally Backwards Classes (SEBC) Act, 2024.

The SEBC Act, allowing 10 per cent quota for the Maratha community, was passed by the previous Eknath Shinde-led government in February last year after the Justice (retd) Sunil Shukre-led Maharashtra State Backward Class Commission (MSBCC) opined that “exceptional circumstances and extraordinary situations exist” to grant benefit of quota to Maratha community beyond the 50 per cent threshold.

Notably, the Supreme Court had struck down a similar quota law enacted by the Maharashtra legislature in 2018 for having breached the 50 per cent cap fixed in the 1992 landmark Indra Sawhney case (Mandal Commission case).

A five-judge Constitution Bench, in its judgment passed in May 2021, had opined that it could not find any exceptional circumstances or extraordinary situation for allowing a 12-13 per cent quota for the Maratha community and struck down the Maharashtra Socially and Educationally Backward Classes (SEBC) Act, 2018.

Further, the Supreme Court had declared that states do not have the power to prepare lists for socially and educationally backward classes and ruled that the President had the sole power to identify a community as backward.

It had also declined to entertain the review plea moved by the Maharashtra government seeking a relook at the judgment. Before this, the apex court had dismissed a plea by the Union government seeking reconsideration of the May 5, 2021, judgment.

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