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ICRA cuts India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2%

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Ratings agency ICRA has lowered India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent from an earlier projection of 8 per cent.

Besides, the rating agency projected GDP expansion in FY22 at 8.5 per cent, which is modestly lower than the National Statistical Office’s (NSO’s) second advance estimate of 8.9 per cent.

“Following the elevated commodity prices and fresh supply chain issues arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the renewed lockdowns in parts of China, we have pared our forecast of India’s real GDP growth in FY2023 to 7.2 per cent from 8 per cent,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA.

“Higher prices of fuels and items such as edible oils are likely to compress disposable incomes in the mid to lower income segments, constraining the demand revival in FY2023.”

However, she cited that the prescient extension of free foodgrains under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana (PMGKAY) until September 2022 may continue to offer some respite to the food budgets of vulnerable households.

“In the mid to upper income segments, normalisation of behaviours after the third wave is set to result in a pivot of consumption towards the contact-intensive services that were avoided during the pandemic, constraining the growth in demand for goods in FY2023,” she said.

Furthermore, the agency pointed out a gradual rise in the capacity utilisation to 74-75 per cent in Q3FY23 from 71-72 per cent in Q4FY22, leading to a potential modest delay in the awaited broad-basing of capacity expansion by the private sector.

At present, capacity expansion is being undertaken in select sectors such as cement, steel, as well as sectors covered under the PLI schemes.

As per ICRA, an early kick-off of the Government of India’s (GoI’s) budgeted capex programme remains crucial to boost investment activity in H1FY23.

However, concerns have been raised as the execution risk is shifting to the states, with a considerable portion of the step-up in the GoI’s budgeted capital spending coming through the enlargement in the size of interest-free capex loan to the state governments to Rs 1 trillion in FY23 from Rs 0.15 trillion in FY22.

“Moreover, the K-shaped recovery appears likely to continue with the formal sector gaining market share in FY2023,” Nayar added.

In addition, ICRA noted that the economic activity rebounded post the rapid abatement of the third wave of Covid-19 in February 2022 and the lifting of the state-wise restrictions.

“As expected, the third wave had a much smaller impact on the confidence levels relative to the first two waves. While the early data for March 2022 is mixed, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the associated surge in commodity prices has heightened uncertainty, and the expected margin compression is likely to squeeze GVA growth,” the ratings agency said.

“ICRA expects the YoY growth in real GDP to moderate to 3-4 per cent in Q4FY22 from 5.4 per cent in Q3FY22. The YoY expansion in real GDP is, therefore, projected at 8.5 per cent in FY2022, a mild rise of 1.3 per cent relative to FY2020 levels.”

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Crude oil surges over 6 pc to near $80 as Trump says Iran ceasefire is ‘over’

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New Delhi, July 8: Global crude oil prices surged more than 6 per cent on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was effectively over following a fresh round of American military strikes on Iran, intensifying concerns over energy supplies from West Asia.

International oil benchmark Brent crude climbed as much as 6.52 per cent or $4.69 to trade near $80 a barrel. Similarly, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced more than 6 per cent or $4.85 to around $75 a barrel.

Speaking in Ankara on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit, Trump told reporters that the US had carried out fresh strikes against Iran overnight in response to what he described as Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

He said, “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum…They are sick people. They’re led by sick people. They are vicious, violent people and if they had a nuclear weapon, they would use it. As far as I am concerned, it’s over. I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars. We make a deal…Everyone’s agreed. No nuclear weapon. We make a deal. They go outside and talk to the press. They say we never even talked about it. There’s something wrong with them. They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.”

Trump also described Iranian leaders in strongly critical terms and said he no longer wished to pursue negotiations with Tehran, expressing scepticism about the prospects of any future agreement.

His remarks came amid renewed tensions in the region following a series of attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.

The sharp rise in crude prices weighed on investor sentiment, with Indian equity markets witnessing broad-based selling.

As of 3 pm, Sensex fell around 1,900 points or more than 2 per cent to 76,259, while Nifty was down nearly 600 points or over 2 per cent at 23,805.

The latest rally in crude prices marked a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of abundant supply after OPEC+ announced higher production quotas and major Middle Eastern producers increased output.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee weakened by 20 paise to 95.16 against the US dollar in early trade. The domestic currency opened at 95.15 against the greenback.

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South Indian Bank shares tank 10 pc after RBI nod for new CEO

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Shares of private lender South Indian Bank tumbled nearly 10 per cent on Wednesday after the lender announced that it had received the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) approval for the appointment of Mahesh Muralidhar Pai as its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer (MD & CEO).

The private banking stock declined as much as 9.86 per cent to Rs 43.02 on the BSE. At around 12:05 pm, it was trading at Rs 44.23, down more than 7 per cent.

In a regulatory filing, the private sector lender said the RBI has approved the appointment of Pai as MD and CEO for a period of three years with effect from October 1.

The bank said the proposal for Pai’s appointment will be placed before its Board of Directors at the meeting scheduled for July 16.

In addition, the appointment will require shareholders’ approval in accordance with the Companies Act, 2013, and the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations.

Pai (50) is currently serving as Chief General Manager at Canara Bank, where he heads digital banking and innovation, according to the exchange filing.

With nearly three decades of banking experience, he has worked across governance, strategy, treasury, foreign exchange, retail banking, agriculture and MSME credit. He has also led several strategic initiatives at Canara Bank, including the establishment of its gold loan vertical, and has previously headed one of the bank’s largest zones.

Moreover, he serves as a Director on the boards of Karnataka State Financial Corporation and Canara Bank Securities Ltd, the filing added.

According to BSE data, the stock has touched a 52-week high of Rs 49.90 and a 52-week low of Rs 28.13.

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Kutch Copper Ltd’s ‘Adani Copper’ becomes London Metal Exchange-registered brand

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Ahmedabad, July 7: Kutch Copper Limited (KCL), a subsidiary of Adani Enterprises Ltd, has earned London Metal Exchange (LME) certification for ‘Adani Copper,’ according to a statement issued by the company on Tuesday.

“Approval by the world centre for the trading of industrial metals validates KCL’s manufacturing excellence and responsible sourcing practices against strict global benchmarks, enabling Adani Copper cathodes to be delivered with warrants eligible for issuance against LME Copper futures contracts from July 10, 2026,” the statement said.

For the Adani Group, LME’s listing of Adani Copper as a Good Delivery brand for ‘Copper Grade A’ contracts places the brand alongside the world’s leading copper brands, conferring international recognition and market credibility on the Group’s entry into the metals sector and its emergence as a globally competitive producer of refined copper.

“Copper is the backbone of the global energy transition. Achieving LME brand status places Adani among the world’s leading copper producers and strengthens India’s role in building a resilient, responsible supply chain for this vital metal. Kutch Copper’s world-class infrastructure and ESG standards make this recognition both timely and well-deserved. It will enhance the global acceptance of Adani Copper. Apart from reinforcing India’s growing stature in the international metals industry, the registration is a landmark step towards self-reliance in refined copper,” Adani Enterprises’ CEO, Natural Resources, and Kutch Copper Ltd Managing Director Dr Vinay Prakash said.

An LME-brand certification is a rigorous process involving superior quality assurances — covering chemical composition, shape and weight — alongside strict responsible sourcing protocols. The LME listing enables Adani Copper cathodes to be placed on warrant in LME-approved warehouses, strengthening financing flexibility as LME-listed metal is recognised as a highly liquid asset that can be used as collateral. For the LME, the addition of Adani Copper broadens the exchange’s deliverable base with high-quality cathode from a major new production hub, deepening the liquidity and geographic diversity of the global copper market.

The $1.2 billion Kutch Copper facility with production capacity of 0.5 million tonnes — one of the world’s largest single-location custom copper smelting complexes, designed with state-of-the-art technology, advanced process automation, and sustainability-led design principles embedded across operations — strengthens domestic supply, reduces the nation’s dependence on imported copper, and advances India’s ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ ambitions in a metal central to electrification, renewable energy and the energy transition, the Adani Group statement added.

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