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ICRA cuts India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2%

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Ratings agency ICRA has lowered India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent from an earlier projection of 8 per cent.

Besides, the rating agency projected GDP expansion in FY22 at 8.5 per cent, which is modestly lower than the National Statistical Office’s (NSO’s) second advance estimate of 8.9 per cent.

“Following the elevated commodity prices and fresh supply chain issues arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the renewed lockdowns in parts of China, we have pared our forecast of India’s real GDP growth in FY2023 to 7.2 per cent from 8 per cent,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA.

“Higher prices of fuels and items such as edible oils are likely to compress disposable incomes in the mid to lower income segments, constraining the demand revival in FY2023.”

However, she cited that the prescient extension of free foodgrains under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana (PMGKAY) until September 2022 may continue to offer some respite to the food budgets of vulnerable households.

“In the mid to upper income segments, normalisation of behaviours after the third wave is set to result in a pivot of consumption towards the contact-intensive services that were avoided during the pandemic, constraining the growth in demand for goods in FY2023,” she said.

Furthermore, the agency pointed out a gradual rise in the capacity utilisation to 74-75 per cent in Q3FY23 from 71-72 per cent in Q4FY22, leading to a potential modest delay in the awaited broad-basing of capacity expansion by the private sector.

At present, capacity expansion is being undertaken in select sectors such as cement, steel, as well as sectors covered under the PLI schemes.

As per ICRA, an early kick-off of the Government of India’s (GoI’s) budgeted capex programme remains crucial to boost investment activity in H1FY23.

However, concerns have been raised as the execution risk is shifting to the states, with a considerable portion of the step-up in the GoI’s budgeted capital spending coming through the enlargement in the size of interest-free capex loan to the state governments to Rs 1 trillion in FY23 from Rs 0.15 trillion in FY22.

“Moreover, the K-shaped recovery appears likely to continue with the formal sector gaining market share in FY2023,” Nayar added.

In addition, ICRA noted that the economic activity rebounded post the rapid abatement of the third wave of Covid-19 in February 2022 and the lifting of the state-wise restrictions.

“As expected, the third wave had a much smaller impact on the confidence levels relative to the first two waves. While the early data for March 2022 is mixed, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the associated surge in commodity prices has heightened uncertainty, and the expected margin compression is likely to squeeze GVA growth,” the ratings agency said.

“ICRA expects the YoY growth in real GDP to moderate to 3-4 per cent in Q4FY22 from 5.4 per cent in Q3FY22. The YoY expansion in real GDP is, therefore, projected at 8.5 per cent in FY2022, a mild rise of 1.3 per cent relative to FY2020 levels.”

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PM Modi to inaugurate fifth edition of ‘SEMICON India’ on Sept 17

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New Delhi, Aug 18: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate the fifth edition of SEMICON India 2026 on September 17 here as India seeks to accelerate the development of its domestic semiconductor ecosystem, an official statement said on Tuesday.

The three-day conference and exhibition — themed Silicon to Systems: Building the Ecosystem — will be held between September 17 and September 19 and is being jointly organised by the India Semiconductor Mission (ISM) — under the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) — and global industry association SEMI, the ministry said.

The event is expected to bring together policymakers, global semiconductor companies, industry executives, researchers, academics, start-ups and students to discuss developments across the semiconductor and electronics value chain.

In addition, the Centre recently approved Semicon 2.0 to strengthen the country’s semiconductor manufacturing and supply-chain capabilities.

The government said it is also supporting semiconductor research, innovation and design through access to advanced design tools for more than 332 academic institutions and 105 start-ups.

Moreover, 24 start-ups have been approved under the Design Linked Incentive (DLI) scheme.

However, India’s semiconductor ambitions have gained momentum under the Semicon India Programme with 12 projects approved under Semicon 1.0 to help build a domestic semiconductor ecosystem, according to the ministry.

S. Krishnan, Secretary, MeitY, said the 2026 edition comes at a significant stage in India’s semiconductor journey, noting that three of the 12 projects approved under Semicon 1.0 have commenced commercial production.

“The announcement of Semicon 2.0 with six major pillars further strengthens India’s commitment to build a robust and resilient semiconductor ecosystem,” he said.

Ajit Manocha, President and Chief Executive Officer of SEMI, said India is well positioned to expand its role in the global semiconductor industry through its talent pool, policy support and long-term vision.

Ashok Chandak, President of SEMI India and IESA, said the event reflects India’s efforts to build a comprehensive semiconductor value chain and has become a key platform for collaboration among industry leaders, policymakers, investors and researchers.

Additionally, the exhibition is expected to feature more than 500 exhibitors, including over 240 international companies, with delegations from more than 40 countries.

According to the ministry, the event will also include six country pavilions, 10 state government pavilions, a start-up pavilion, innovation showcase, start-up pitch competition, student hackathon and workforce development pavilion.

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Sensex plunges 493 points, Nifty falls 133 points amid global tensions

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Mumbai, Aug 18: The benchmark indices extended their losses on Tuesday, with the Sensex and Nifty coming under pressure amid heightened geopolitical tensions and weakness in key sectors.

The Sensex fell 493 points, or 0.63 per cent, to 77,235.46, while the Nifty declined 132.75 points, or 0.55 per cent, to 24,154.90.

Commenting on technical outlook, the 24,300 zone is likely to act as the immediate resistance.

“A sustained move above 24,300 could help stabilise the structure and support a recovery towards the 24,400–24,500 region. However, failure to reclaim this level could keep recovery attempts vulnerable to selling pressure,” an analyst stated.

“On the downside, 24,150 remains the immediate support level. A decisive break below 24,150 could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards the 24,000 psychological mark,” as per the market expert.

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Asian Paints and Infosys emerged as the top losers among Nifty constituents. The broader market also remained under pressure, with the Nifty MidCap index declining 0.43 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index ended flat.

Sectorally, Nifty IT, Nifty Realty and Nifty PSU Bank were among the biggest drags on the benchmark indices. In contrast, the Nifty Auto index emerged as the top-performing sector during the session.

Experts said that the market sentiment remained cautious as investors assessed the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions, with selling pressure in IT, realty and PSU banking stocks weighing on the overall market.

“Although domestic fundamentals continue to be supportive, sustained high crude prices and rising input costs could pressure recent earnings upgrades, prompting investors to remain cautious in the near term,” as per the market expert.

Meanwhile, Rupee traded largely flat near 95.67, but the broader weakness continues as the currency faces hurdles in sustaining strength.

“The rupee is expected to trade in the 95.25–95.85 range in the near term,” a market expert noted.

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India-Israel FTA talks to see two more rounds, deal expected to take shape by February 2027: Israeli envoy

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New Delhi, Aug 18: Israel expects two more rounds of negotiations with India on the proposed free trade agreement, with the two sides likely to have greater clarity on the pact by February 2027, Israeli Ambassador to India Reuven Azar said.

In an interaction with media, Azar said the second round of negotiations was held last month, following an agreement on the terms of reference reached at the end of last year.

“We expect to have two more rounds, one in October and probably the last one by February and I think that by then we will know exactly where we stand,” he said.

Asked about the potential benefits of the FTA for both countries, Azar said discussions have so far focused on traditional market access issues, but the negotiations also cover areas such as reciprocal buybacks and cooperation.

He said bridging the gap in market access could be challenging because Israel has already lowered its tariffs and the two markets differ considerably in size.

However, the Israeli envoy identified high-tech cooperation as an area with significant potential for expanding bilateral economic ties.

“The greatest potential, I think, lies in high-tech cooperation,” he told media.

Azar further noted that greater innovation cooperation between the two countries could encourage Israeli companies to operate more freely in the Indian market.

The envoy’s comments come amid efforts by India and Israel to deepen their economic and technology partnership.

Earlier in May, Azar highlighted six core values underpinning the bilateral relationship — civilisational resilience, the fight against terrorism, democratic values, innovation & competitiveness, religious tolerance, and inclusive development.

India and Israel share a special and unique relationship and stressed the need to translate their common values into greater cooperation and investment, according to his video shared on X.

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