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Growth Oriented: RBI’s MPC expected to hold rates

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The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee is expected to retain key lending rates during the upcoming monetary policy review even as inflationary pressures continue to build-up.

The MPC will review the monetary policy in its meeting during April 6-8.

Accordingly, economists and industry experts cited the MPC’s strategic focus on growth as a key consideration to hold on rates.

Nonetheless, the central bank’s MPC might do away with the accommodative stance in an indication of future rate hikes.

Lately, high crude oil and commodity costs have started to reflect in retail prices.

The official gauge of retail inflation — CPI — has been printing above the MPC’s upper threshold of 6 per cent in January and February 2022.

“We expect a status-quo to be maintained in rates during the April’s review, however, MPC’s commentary is expected to be less dovish, preparing the ground for an imminent stance change,” ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said.

“We expect the monetary policy stance to be changed to neutral in June 2022, accompanied by a hike in the reverse repo rate, narrowing the corridor. Subsequently, we expect a shallow rate hike cycle, with two repo hikes of 25 bps each in August-September 2022.”

At present, the MPC of the central bank has maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.

Besides, the reverse repo rate was kept unchanged at 3.35 per cent.

“We remain watchful of inflation push-and-pull factors and their impact on MPC’s reaction function, which we think will be in a wait-and-watch mode until H1FY23,” Emkay Global Financial Services Lead Economist Madhavi Arora said.

Last month, official data showed that higher cost of food items, as well as manufactured goods like clothing and footwear, kept India’s February 2022 retail inflation above the six-per cent-mark on a sequential as well as on a year-on-year basis.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 6.07 per cent in February from 6.01 per cent in January 2022.

According to Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer at Acute Ratings: “Given the growth headwinds generated from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we expect the MPC to continue with the accommodative stance in the near term.”

“There is also a low likelihood of any revision in the reverse repo rates although short term interest rates have already seen a material increase since the last MPC meeting in Feb-22.”

In addition, Chowdhury expects a significant revision in the headline inflation forecast for FY23 which has been previously pegged by MPC at 4.5 per cent, since crude oil and other commodity prices have risen over the last two months.

Business

Commercial LPG cylinder prices reduced across metros from November 1

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New Delhi, Nov 1: State-run oil marketing companies have reduced commercial LPG cylinder prices across metros, offering a slight relief to businesses, starting from Saturday.

The move will provide marginal relief to thousands of small and medium-sized businesses.

According to the latest revision announced by state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs), the 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder will now cost Rs 1,590.50 in Delhi, reflecting a Rs 5 cut from the previous rate of Rs 1,595.50.

With the highest drop of Rs 6.50 per cylinder among the metros, the charge in Kolkata will now be Rs 1,694 per cylinder. Chennai will now charge Rs 1,750 (down Rs 4.50), while Mumbai now charges Rs 1,542 (down Rs 5).

For businesses that depend significantly on LPG for their everyday operations, like restaurants, hotels, and catering services, the most recent revision provides a small reprieve following a hike of Rs 15.50 that was put into effect late in September.

However, domestic LPG prices have not changed and are the same in every city.

Earlier in September, OMCs had reduced the price of commercial LPG gas cylinders by Rs 51.50. Following the revision, a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder in Delhi was available at Rs 1,580.

Earlier, OMCs had reduced the price of a 19 kg commercial LPG gas cylinder by Rs 33.50. Before that, prices had been reduced by Rs 58.50 on July 1.

Earlier in June, oil firms had announced a Rs 24 cut for commercial cylinders, setting the rate at Rs 1,723.50. In April, the price stood at Rs 1,762. February saw a small Rs 7 reduction, but March reversed this slightly with a Rs 6 increase.

Meanwhile, the Centre had announced to provide 2.5 million free LPG connections under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) during the festival season.

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Business

Nifty, Sensex end 4-week winning streak amid profit booking

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Mumbai, Nov 1: Indian equity benchmarks ended their four-week winning streak, closing marginally lower this week amid profit-booking and mixed global cues.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex dipped 0.65 and 0.55 per cent during the week to close at 25,722 and 83,938, respectively.

Market optimism was bolstered during the first three sessions by positive domestic economic data and China’s approval for few Indian companies to import rare earth magnets.

However, sentiment turned cautious after the US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75 per cent–4 per cent range.

“India’s industrial output rose 4 per cent YoY in September 2025, supported by strong manufacturing activity. The US Federal Reserve hinted that the 25-bps cut might be the final one in 2025, which dampened hopes of further near-term easing,” said Ajit Mishra- SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Further, steady corporate earnings and continued FII inflows through October helped cushion the downside, he added.

Metals, energy and realty stocks were the major contributors to the rally, while auto, pharma and IT stocks experienced profit-taking.

“While PSU banks surged on reports of a potential hike in foreign investment limits, metal counters gleamed on renewed optimism after China’s pledge to rein in steel overcapacity and signs of progress in US-China trade talks,” added Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

Analysts said that capital market stocks lost momentum as SEBI’s proposed overhaul of TER structures weighed on sentiment.

Support for the Nifty is currently located close to the 25,600 zone and the 25,400 zone, while resistance is seen around 26,100, analysts said.

In the upcoming holiday-shortened week, investors are looking for cues from the final readings of the HSBC Manufacturing PMI and HSBC Services and Composite PMI data.

Investors are also keen on the India-US trade deal and trends in developed markets, while on the earnings front, several index heavyweights are set to announce their quarterly results.

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Business

India aims 300 million tonnes of crude steel production capacity by 2030

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New Delhi, Oct 31: India aims to achieve 300 million tonnes of crude steel production capacity by 2030, Union Minister of State for Steel, Bhupathiraju Srinivas Varma, said on Friday.

In a meeting with Sara Modig, State Secretary to Minister for Energy, Business and Industry, Sweden, here, in presence of Swedish Ambassador to India Jan Thesleff and other officials, the minister highlighted India’s growing steel sector, driven by visionary leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Notably, India’s domestic steel demand is growing at an impressive 11-13 per cent, fuelled by large-scale infrastructure projects, while global demand faces a slowdown, according to Steel Ministry.

The discussions were held to explore collaboration opportunities in the field of research and development in Green Steel production and other advanced technologies to reduce carbon emissions.

Varma reaffirmed the invitation extended to Sweden to participate in Bharat Steel 2026, an International Conference-cum-Exhibition dedicated to the steel industry, scheduled to be held on April 16–17, 2026, at Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

Meanwhile, the growth rate of India’s eight core industries was recorded at 3 per cent in September this year compared to the same month of the previous year, with the steel and cement sectors recording strong growth during the month, data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry showed.

Steel production surged by a robust 14.1 per cent in September compared to the same month of the previous year on the back of increased demand from big-ticket infrastructure projects being carried out by the government. The cumulative growth of steel during April to Sept of 2025-26 increased by 11 per cent over the corresponding period of the previous year.

The government imposed a 12 per cent temporary safeguard duty on certain steel imports in April 2025 to protect the domestic market. These measures follow previous actions and are part of ongoing efforts to safeguard the industry while promoting self-reliance under initiatives like ‘Make in India’.

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