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Growth Oriented: RBI’s MPC expected to hold rates

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The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee is expected to retain key lending rates during the upcoming monetary policy review even as inflationary pressures continue to build-up.

The MPC will review the monetary policy in its meeting during April 6-8.

Accordingly, economists and industry experts cited the MPC’s strategic focus on growth as a key consideration to hold on rates.

Nonetheless, the central bank’s MPC might do away with the accommodative stance in an indication of future rate hikes.

Lately, high crude oil and commodity costs have started to reflect in retail prices.

The official gauge of retail inflation — CPI — has been printing above the MPC’s upper threshold of 6 per cent in January and February 2022.

“We expect a status-quo to be maintained in rates during the April’s review, however, MPC’s commentary is expected to be less dovish, preparing the ground for an imminent stance change,” ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said.

“We expect the monetary policy stance to be changed to neutral in June 2022, accompanied by a hike in the reverse repo rate, narrowing the corridor. Subsequently, we expect a shallow rate hike cycle, with two repo hikes of 25 bps each in August-September 2022.”

At present, the MPC of the central bank has maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.

Besides, the reverse repo rate was kept unchanged at 3.35 per cent.

“We remain watchful of inflation push-and-pull factors and their impact on MPC’s reaction function, which we think will be in a wait-and-watch mode until H1FY23,” Emkay Global Financial Services Lead Economist Madhavi Arora said.

Last month, official data showed that higher cost of food items, as well as manufactured goods like clothing and footwear, kept India’s February 2022 retail inflation above the six-per cent-mark on a sequential as well as on a year-on-year basis.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 6.07 per cent in February from 6.01 per cent in January 2022.

According to Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer at Acute Ratings: “Given the growth headwinds generated from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we expect the MPC to continue with the accommodative stance in the near term.”

“There is also a low likelihood of any revision in the reverse repo rates although short term interest rates have already seen a material increase since the last MPC meeting in Feb-22.”

In addition, Chowdhury expects a significant revision in the headline inflation forecast for FY23 which has been previously pegged by MPC at 4.5 per cent, since crude oil and other commodity prices have risen over the last two months.

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Gold prices slide 1 pc on MCX as Fed Rate cut hopes fade

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Mumbai, Nov 24: Gold prices fell sharply on Monday as weak chances of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment.

A stronger US dollar also added pressure on the precious metal.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold December futures dropped 1 per cent to Rs 1,22,950 per 10 grams.

Silver followed the trend, with December futures falling 0.61 per cent to Rs 1,53,209 per kg in early trade.

“In INR gold has support at Rs1,23,450-1,22,480 while resistance at Rs1,24,750-1,25,500,” analysts said.

“Silver has support at Rs1,53,050-1,52,350 while resistance at Rs1,55,140, 1,55,980,” they added.

Analysts said gold currently lacks any strong positive trigger to maintain its previous gains.

The latest US job market data reduced expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has been a key reason behind the correction in prices.

The strong economic data pushed the US dollar index to nearly a six-month high on Friday.

The index remained above the 100 level on Monday, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies and restricting demand.

Geopolitical concerns have also eased in recent days, further reducing gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Experts believe the combination of a stronger dollar, uncertainty over US tariff decisions, developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the upcoming Fed policy announcement may keep gold prices volatile in the near term.

Some market analysts expect further correction and advise investors to stay cautious before making fresh purchases.

Gold is attempting to reclaim momentum as prices hover near $4,100, driven by growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut, now priced at 71 per cent probability after dovish hints from officials like Miran and Williams.

“Bullion has been choppy over the past three sessions, reflecting traders’ indecision, but with rate-cut bets rising and geopolitical risks lingering, dips in gold are likely to attract renewed buying interest in the coming week with next resistance seen around 125000 and support near 122000,” experts added.

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New labour codes to boost formalisation, gender parity of India’s workforce: Industry leaders

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New Delhi, Nov 22: India’s top industry bodies and staffing leaders on Saturday labelled the implementation of the Four Labour Codes a landmark step toward formalising the workforce, expanding social security, and aligning India’s labour framework with global standards.

The India Electronics & Semiconductor Association (IESA) said the reforms would significantly benefit the high-technology sectors by enhancing workforce stability, improving safety standards, and enabling labour flexibility with social protection.

“Mandatory appointment letters, universal minimum wages, and pan-India social security coverage (including ESIC expansion) ensure greater formalisation. This strengthens worker confidence — critical for skill-intensive manufacturing such as fabs, ATMP, component manufacturing and design centres,” said Ashok Chandak, President, IESA and SEMI India.

Provisions for fixed-term employment, faster dispute resolution, single licensing, and simplified compliance directly support the scaling of high-tech manufacturing clusters, the statement said.

Meanwhile, parity of benefits for Fixed-Term Employees (FTE) and expanded social security protections ensure a balanced, worker-centric ecosystem, he added.

Sachin Alug, CEO of NLB Services, a technology and digital talent provider, said the reforms were long overdue for India’s gig economy and will offer protection to a fast-growing but previously unorganised workforce.

The new laws are also expected to promote gender parity in the workforce by opening doors to wider opportunities across diverse sectors. Additionally, other groups such as”

He also pointed out that new laws will promote gender parity and contract workers, youth workers, and fixed-term employees will benefit from clearer working-hour norms, expanded social security, minimum wage protections, and health benefits.

“By simplifying compliance and unifying the regulatory framework, the codes can significantly expand formal employment, bringing millions of workers, especially in industries that rely on contract, temporary, and project-based roles, into the fold of structured, protected work,” said Balasubramanian A, Senior Vice President, TeamLease Services.

“National floor minimum wage creates a consistent benchmark across states and is an important step in India’s evolution from a minimum-wage economy to a living-wage economy,” he noted.

Suchita Dutta, Executive Director of Indian Staffing Federation (ISF), said the codes simplify compliance for employers, reduce regulatory burdens, and foster a more flexible hiring environment — crucial for the staffing industry, which has long advocated for such changes to unlock formal job creation.

The government, on November 21, implemented the Four Labour Codes — the Code on Wages (2019), Industrial Relations Code (2020), Code on Social Security (2020), and Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions (OSHWC) Code (2020) — repealing and rationalising 29 existing central labour laws.

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Nifty, Sensex continue rally for second week despite FII outflows

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Mumbai, Nov 22: Indian equity benchmarks made marginal gains for the second week, supported by stronger second quarter (Q2) earnings, easing inflation and optimism around the India-US trade negotiations.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex edged higher 0.68 and 0.50 per cent during the week to close at 26,068 and 85,231, respectively.

Analysts said that a moderation in FII selling due to expectations of earnings upgrades in H2 FY26 also supported the rally. However, markets turned volatile on Friday amid weak global cues. The Nifty fell after failing to cross its previous all-time highs of 26,277, ending its two-day advance.

Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 ending the week down 0.76 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively.

Though IT stocks faced selling pressure due to weakness in the US tech shares, it was the biggest weekly gainer. Nifty Auto and Services followed as the secoral gainers during the week. On Friday, metals and realty were the worst hit, both dropping over 2 per cent, followed by PSU banks, financial services and media.

A better-than-expected non-farm payroll dimmed hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December putting pressure on global equities. Resultantly gold also witnessed selling pressure while INR declined to a new low.

The oil prices declined due to the US’s renewed push for a Russia-Ukraine peace proposal.

“The market may witness some profit booking in the near term if the pressure on Indian rupee persists. In the week ahead, investors will also have a close vigil on trade developments and economic data like IIP and Q2 FY26 GDP data to get the market direction,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

Analysts said that they expect markets to remain firm next week supported by buying on dips, improving demand outlook in Q3 and resilient flows.

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