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Growth Oriented: RBI’s MPC expected to hold rates

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The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee is expected to retain key lending rates during the upcoming monetary policy review even as inflationary pressures continue to build-up.

The MPC will review the monetary policy in its meeting during April 6-8.

Accordingly, economists and industry experts cited the MPC’s strategic focus on growth as a key consideration to hold on rates.

Nonetheless, the central bank’s MPC might do away with the accommodative stance in an indication of future rate hikes.

Lately, high crude oil and commodity costs have started to reflect in retail prices.

The official gauge of retail inflation — CPI — has been printing above the MPC’s upper threshold of 6 per cent in January and February 2022.

“We expect a status-quo to be maintained in rates during the April’s review, however, MPC’s commentary is expected to be less dovish, preparing the ground for an imminent stance change,” ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said.

“We expect the monetary policy stance to be changed to neutral in June 2022, accompanied by a hike in the reverse repo rate, narrowing the corridor. Subsequently, we expect a shallow rate hike cycle, with two repo hikes of 25 bps each in August-September 2022.”

At present, the MPC of the central bank has maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.

Besides, the reverse repo rate was kept unchanged at 3.35 per cent.

“We remain watchful of inflation push-and-pull factors and their impact on MPC’s reaction function, which we think will be in a wait-and-watch mode until H1FY23,” Emkay Global Financial Services Lead Economist Madhavi Arora said.

Last month, official data showed that higher cost of food items, as well as manufactured goods like clothing and footwear, kept India’s February 2022 retail inflation above the six-per cent-mark on a sequential as well as on a year-on-year basis.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 6.07 per cent in February from 6.01 per cent in January 2022.

According to Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer at Acute Ratings: “Given the growth headwinds generated from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we expect the MPC to continue with the accommodative stance in the near term.”

“There is also a low likelihood of any revision in the reverse repo rates although short term interest rates have already seen a material increase since the last MPC meeting in Feb-22.”

In addition, Chowdhury expects a significant revision in the headline inflation forecast for FY23 which has been previously pegged by MPC at 4.5 per cent, since crude oil and other commodity prices have risen over the last two months.

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Gold and silver prices tumble over 4 pc as West Asia tensions ease

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Mumbai, March 24: Gold and silver prices witnessed a sharp decline on Tuesday, even as hopes of de-escalation in the West Asia conflict weighed on safe-haven demand after the US President announced a temporary pause on potential strikes targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (April 2) fell as much as Rs 2,576 or around 2 per cent to hit an intra-day low of Rs 1,36,684 per 10 grams by 10:40 am. The yellow metal was last trading at Rs 1,37,100, down Rs 2,160 or 1.5 per cent.

Silver futures (May 5) also plunged 4.73 per cent, or Rs 10,667, to Rs 2,14,500 per kg during the session.

In the global market, COMEX gold was trading at $4,368.76, down 1.6 per cent, after slipping to an intraday low of $4,340.

Meanwhile, COMEX silver declined around 4 per cent to $66.56, after hitting an intraday low of $66.16.

Precious metals came under pressure after the US President said Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations” over the past two days, adding that any military action on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure would be deferred for five days, subject to further discussions.

However, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf denied that any negotiations had taken place, calling such reports “fake news” aimed at influencing financial and oil markets.

According to analysts, COMEX gold is currently trading in the $4,300–$4,380 range after a sharp correction, with the broader trend remaining weak despite intermittent safe-haven support. Immediate resistance is seen at $4,470–$4,500, while a break below $4,250 could trigger further downside toward $4,100 levels.

“MCX gold, which opened gap-down, is holding above Rs 1,36,000 but continues to exhibit a weak recovery within a broader bearish trend. Resistance is placed at Rs 1,39,000–Rs 1,40,000, while a fall below Rs 1,34,000 may extend losses toward Rs 1,30,000,” according to them.

They also said that COMEX silver remains under pressure below the $68–$70 resistance zone, with downside risks toward $64–$61 if support levels fail.

Similarly, MCX silver is trading in the Rs 2,15,000–Rs 2,20,000 range, with a bearish bias unless prices reclaim higher resistance levels, the analysts added.

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Over 40 oil and gas infra assets damaged in West Asia war: Top IEA official

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New Delhi, March 23: Over 40 energy assets across nine countries in West Asia have been “severely or very severely” damaged due to the Iran war and no country would be immune to the fallout of the disruption in oil and gas supplies, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said in Canberra on Monday.

“The effect of the current disruptions in West Asia is equivalent to the two major oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 natural gas crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine all put together,” Birol remarked.

Addressing journalists at the Australia’s National Press Club, he said that while the oil crises of the 1970s led to a combined loss of around 10 million barrels per day, the present situation has already resulted in a loss of approximately 11 million barrels per day.

“Not only oil and gas, but some of the vital arteries of the global economy — such as petrochemicals, fertilisers, sulphur and helium — their trade is all interrupted, which will have serious consequences for the global economy,” Birol explained.

The IEA announced in early March that it would release a record 400 million barrels from its emergency oil reserves of its member countries to help ease supply shocks and bring down soaring prices in the aftermath of the war in West Asia.

“The IEA is currently in discussions with governments across Asia and Europe regarding the possible release of additional oil if necessary,” media reports cited Birol as saying.

However, with shipping across the Strait of Hormuz close to a complete standstill due to the war, the only true solution to fuel supply disruptions is the reopening of the major trade route, he pointed out.

He further warned that the global economy faces a ’major threat’ if the crisis continues to escalate.

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Iran war costs deepen split in US Congress amid scrutiny of $200 billion funding request

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Washington, March 20: Rising costs of the Iran war and its impact on global markets are deepening divisions in Congress, with Republicans and Democrats questioning the scale and purpose of a proposed funding request that could exceed $200 billion, according to multiple US media reports.

The White House is preparing to seek massive new funding for the conflict, even as scepticism grows within President Donald Trump’s own party over the lack of a clear strategy and timeline, CNN reported. Lawmakers say the administration has yet to fully explain how the money will be used or how long the US military engagement could last.

Trump signalled the request could be substantial, arguing the military needs resources to maintain strength. “We want to be in the best shape, the best shape we’ve ever been in,” he said, adding, “It’s a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top.”

But that argument is facing pushback. Some Republicans have openly rejected further spending, reflecting growing unease about what several described as a potential “endless war”.

“I am a no. I have already told leadership. I am a no on any war supplemental. I am so tired of spending money over there,” Representative Lauren Boebert said, according to CNN. “I have folks in Colorado who can’t afford to live. We need America First policies right now.”

Others are demanding detailed answers before committing support. “What are we doing? We’re talking about boots on the ground. We’re talking about that kind of extended activity,” said Representative Chip Roy. “They got a whole lot more briefing and a whole lot more explaining to do on how we’re going to pay for it and what’s the mission here?”

Fiscal conservatives have also questioned whether the proposed funding could expand further. “It begs the question, how long do they plan to be there? What are the goals? Is this the first $200 billion? Does this turn into a trillion?” Representative Thomas Massie said, CNN reported.

The debate comes as the conflict intensifies in the Gulf. US and allied forces have stepped up operations around the Strait of Hormuz, deploying attack aircraft and helicopters to target Iranian naval assets and reopen critical shipping lanes, The Wall Street Journal reported.

“The A-10 Warthog is now engaged across the southern flank, targeting fast-attack watercraft in the Strait of Hormuz,” General Dan Caine said, adding that Apache helicopters “have joined the fight on the southern flank,” according to the Journal.

The escalation has already shaken global energy markets. Oil prices surged sharply as attacks on infrastructure across the region raised fears of supply disruptions, The New York Times reported.

Analysts warned the economic fallout could deepen if hostilities continue. “Energy warfare has been utilised from day one,” said Anna Jacobs, according to The Washington Post, noting that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected a key global supply route.

At the same time, lawmakers in both parties say they have received limited and incomplete cost assessments, adding to concerns over approving such a large sum. Some Republicans have proposed conditions, including spending offsets or audits of Pentagon finances, before backing any funding bill.

Senate leaders have indicated the path forward remains uncertain. “It remains to be seen” whether the request could pass, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said, according to CNN.

Democrats, meanwhile, remain largely opposed to approving funds under current conditions, further complicating the administration’s efforts to secure congressional backing.

The conflict has also triggered broader policy debates within the administration, including whether easing sanctions on Iranian oil could help stabilise global prices, The Washington Post reported. Officials say such steps could bring additional supply to the market, though analysts warn it could also strengthen Iran financially during the war.

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