Business
Foreign Fund Flow: Rupee to gain strength on likely return of FIIs
The expected return of foreign capital into India’s key indices will strengthen the Indian rupee further during the upcoming week.
Accordingly, the rupee is likely to touch the 74 to a USD mark during this period.
The FIIs have been on a selling spree in India’s equity market, however, the rate of off-load has significantly come down during the last few sessions.
On last Thursday, during the hour-long ‘Muhurat Trade Session’, FIIs sold just Rs 328.11 crore worth of stocks on the BSE, NSE and MSEI in the capital market segment.
“Rupee closed strong in this short trade week at 74.50 to a USD on back of lower crude and IPO inflows. Also on the back of IMF’s suggestion of lower interventions to India’s Central bank,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates at Edelweiss Securities.
“The US yields also softened a bit after touching 1.70 levels paving way for a rally in risk assets. Rupee is expected to test 74 levels this week and the Nifty is likely to gain further strength.”
According to Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities: “This week rupee behaved exactly as expected and appreciated amid heavy FPI flows from ongoing IPOs. Better PMI numbers of manufacturing and service activities indicating economic conditions are improving.”
“We now expect the Rupee to consolidate its recent gains and also factor in the important announcement of tapering from the US FOMC this week. We continue to remain rupee bulls, and we expect it to appreciate towards the 73.5-mark over the course of the next few weeks.”
On the other hand, Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said: “Domestic factors continue to be in favour of the rupee as a number of IPOs are attracting fund flows and thereby supporting the currency. Inflation and industrial production too will be in focus on the domestic front.”
“Rise in inflation is likely to trigger volatility for the currency as well as 10-year yields. We expect the momentum for the rupee would continue to remain positive and it could quote in the range of 74.20 and 75.20.”
In addition, the currency desk of Emkay Global Financial Services: “This week was a short week with USDINR spot witnessing a downtrend on IPO subscriptions.”
“But we can brace for a heightened volatility next week after the FOMC, BOE monetary policy decisions, OPEC meeting and US NFP data.”
Business
Sensex, Nifty extend rally for 3rd day on hopes of US-Iran ceasefire extension

Mumbai, April 21: Indian equity benchmarks extended their gains for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, as investor sentiment improved amid expectations that the United States and Iran may prolong their ceasefire during upcoming talks.
The Nifty and the Sensex ended higher, supported by buying in select heavyweight stocks and optimism around easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
At the closing bell, the Nifty was at 24,576.60, up by 0.87 per cent or 211.75 points. The Sensex ended the intra-day session 0.96 per cent or 753.03 points higher at 79,273.33.
Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the 24,600 level now acts as an immediate resistance where minor supply was observed.
“A decisive breakout and sustained move above this level could open further upside toward 24,850, followed by the key psychological level of 25,000, where stronger supply is expected,” an analyst stated.
“On the downside, the 24,350–24,400 range has now turned into an immediate support zone after acting as resistance earlier,” an analyst mentioned.
Among the top gainers on the Nifty were Nestle India, Trent, and Hindustan Unilever, which helped lift the benchmark index.
Broader markets also reflected positive momentum, with the Nifty MidCap index closing 0.49 per cent higher and the Nifty SmallCap index rising 0.88 per cent.
On the sectoral front, the Nifty FMCG and the Nifty Realty outperformed other indices, driven by strong buying interest.
In contrast, the Nifty Pharma lagged and emerged as the worst-performing sector for the day.
Investors remained cautiously optimistic about geopolitical developments, as both Iranian and US delegations, along with US Vice President JD Vance, are expected to participate in talks aimed at reaching a broader agreement to end hostilities in the region.
However, uncertainty persists as tensions between the two countries escalated ahead of the meeting.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a post on X that Tehran does not support negotiations under threats and indicated that the country is prepared to respond strongly if required.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump warned that failure to reach an agreement before the ceasefire deadline could trigger fresh military escalation, stating that “a lot of bombs” could go off if talks collapse.
“Indian equities are expected to continue their gradual upmove, supported by improving macros, easing crude, and strong Q4 earnings momentum,” an analyst stated.
Business
‘Make attractive fuel option’: Govt panel favours scrapping excise duty on CNG

New Delhi, April 17: A high-level government committee, supported by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), has recommended removing excise duty on Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to lower prices and promote consumption of the green fuel to meet India’s target of achieving a 15 per cent share of natural gas in the fuel mix by 2030.
The key recommendations include removing the 14 per cent excise duty to make CNG a more attractive fuel option and also lowering GST on CNG vehicles to 5 per cent to bring them on par with electric vehicles to accelerate adoption.
The recommendations favour maintaining a competitive price difference between CNG and petrol so that consumers are encouraged to switch to the green fuel.
The tax relief on natural gas is anticipated to impact roughly 1.9 crore households and 38.41 lakh potential users.
These proposals aim to address the currently high taxes, such as the 14 per cent excise duty and state VAT, which have made CNG less competitive in certain regions, particularly in the southern states.
Meanwhile, the government has also been encouraging households to switch to piped natural gas (PNG) from LPG as the West Asia crisis has disrupted supply chains. The expansion of piped natural gas (PNG) has gained momentum, with about 4.58 lakh new PNG connections being gasified and about 5.1 lakh additional customers registering for new connections since March this year.
Till April 15, about 35,000 PNG consumers have surrendered their LPG connections via MYPNGD.in website. States have been advised to facilitate new PNG connections for domestic and commercial consumers.
The government is encouraging natural gas adoption through synergy between the PNGRB and states as part of India’s transition toward a cleaner and more sustainable energy future. As part of the strategy to increase the share of natural gas in the country’s energy mix, the expansion of the City Gas Distribution (CGD) network through Piped Natural Gas (PNG) connections has emerged as one of the key performing areas.
Spearheaded by entities authorised by the PNGRB, the CGD network now spans 307 geographical areas (GAs), covering nearly 100 per cent of the country’s geographical area except islands, touching around 784 districts across 34 states and Union Territories. The government has undertaken a series of policy and regulatory measures to catalyse growth in this sector.
These measures range from allocating administered price domestic gas and easing supply mechanisms to mandating PNG provisions in government and defence residential complexes, granting Public Utility status to CGD projects, and directing the CPWD and the NBCC to include PNG provisions in all government residential complexes.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open higher as geopolitical tensions ease

Mumbai, April 16: The Indian stock markets opened on a higher note on Thursday, with the equity benchmarks mirroring global cues amid hopes of easing geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Sensex opened 566 points or 0.73 per cent higher at 78,677 in opening trade, while Nifty began the session at 24,385, up 154 points or 0.64 per cent. Sectorally, gains were led by realty, media, consumer durables and financial stocks.
Category-wise, small-cap and mid-cap stocks were the top gainers, with the Nifty Smallcap 100, Nifty Smallcap 250 and Nifty Midcap 100 rising up to 1 per cent in early trade.
On Wednesday, FIIs remained net buyers to the tune of approximately Rs 666 crore, while DIIs turned net sellers with outflows of around Rs 569 crore.
According to analysts, volatility could pick up again depending on global developments and upcoming triggers.
After the recent sharp rally, the market may witness some consolidation or profit booking at higher levels, they added.
In contrast, oil commodities traded on a firm note, with Brent crude futures at $94.92 per barrel, down 0.03 per cent, while US WTI crude traded at $91.52, up 0.25 per cent.
On the global front, both US and Asian markets showed positive momentum. Japan’s Nikkei was trading over 2 per cent higher, Hang Seng climbed more than 1 per cent, and South Korea’s KOSPI was up about 2 per cent.
In the US overnight, Wall Street’s major indices — the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq — ended 0.80 per cent and 1.6 per cent higher, respectively.
Meanwhile, the US President said that China is ‘very happy’ with the permanent opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“I am doing it for them also – and the world. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran,” he said on his social media platform, Truth Social.
However, the war has resulted in the largest-ever disruption of global oil and gas supplies by choking traffic through the strait, pushing crude prices to nearly $120 per barrel.
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