Business
Economists see RBI dividend to govt surpassing record Rs 2.5 lakh cr in 2025-26

Mumbai, May 16: Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) dividend to the government to surpass a record over Rs 2.5 lakh crore this year as the central bank earnings, through the sale of dollars to prop up the rupee as it sharply depreciated during 2024-25, are reported to have shot up. This higher profit will be transferred to the government as a dividend in 2025-26.
The previous record dividend transferred to the government stands at Rs 2.1 lakh crore during 2024-25 which helped to keep the fiscal deficit in check, while enabling the Finance Ministry to continue with its expenditure on big ticket infrastructure projects to spur growth and social welfare schemes to uplift the poor.
This was a record jump from the Rs 87,416 crore transferred to the government in 2023-24 for the profit made in 2022-23. Similarly, the government is expected to get another booster shot through the RBI dividend in the current financial year as well.
“Among the RBI’s earnings, forex transactions are expected to be most significant in light of the in light of the central bank’s measures to lower rupee volatility by strong dollar purchases earlier in fiscal 2025 and difference in the current versus historical exchange rate. Add to this the interest income on government securities and earnings from funds extended to banks in midst of previous tight liquidity. “This transfer could amount to a record high at around Rs 2.5-2.7 lakh crore this year,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank.
Earnings on forex transactions are expected to be substantial with gross dollar sales tracking at $371.6 billion in fiscal 2025 till February compared to $153 billion in fiscal 2024, according to Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First bank. She estimates the RBI dividend to be between Rs 2.6 lakh crore to Rs 3 lakh crore, according to an Media report.
The higher dividend creates fiscal space of 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent of GDP, estimates Sengupta. With support from the higher-than-budgeted RBI surplus and savings on a few expenditure heads, the central government is in a fairly strong position to counter the growth slowdown risks and any potential emergency spending requirements.
Apart from helping to lower the fiscal deficit, the RBI dividend will be a significant infusion to core liquidity in the banking system during the current financial year. This will help to keep interest rates low and allow banks to extend more loans to corporates and consumers to accelerate economic growth and create more jobs.
The RBI board of directors met on Thursday to review the economic capital framework which is the basis for deciding the surplus transfer or amount of dividend to be given to the government. The meeting comes ahead of deciding and approving the surplus transfer to the government.
The transferable surplus is determined on the basis of the ECF adopted by the Reserve Bank on August 26, 2019, as per recommendations of the Bimal Jalan-headed Expert Committee to Review the extant Economic Capital Framework of the RBI.
The Committee had recommended that the risk provisioning under the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) be maintained within a range of 6.5 to 5.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet.
Business
Indian stock market opens marginally up, Sensex above 82,000

Mumbai, Sep 23: The Indian benchmark indices opened with mild gains on Tuesday amid positive global cues, as buying was seen in auto, IT and financial service sectors in the early trade.
As of 9.22 am, Sensex was trading 122.13 points or 0.15 per cent up at 82,282.10 while the Nifty added 35.85 point or 0.14 per cent at 25,238.20
Nifty Bank was down 26.30 points or 0.05 per cent at 55,258.45. The Nifty Midcap 100 index was trading at 58,686.55 after dropping 12.95 points or 0.02 per cent. Nifty Smallcap 100 index was at 18,293.15 after gaining 4.25 points or 0.02 per cent.
According to experts, for the Nifty index, the resumption of near-term uptrend will depend on whether the slippages stretch beyond the 25200-25000 region or not.
Early moves may retain a positive bias if above 25238, but it would require a direct rise above 25278/335 region to attract momentum, they added.
Meanwhile, in the Sensex pack, Maruti Suzuki, M&M, Tata Motors, Infosys, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra and Axis Bank were the top gainers. On the other hand, Ultratech Cement, Sun Pharma, Trent and Asian Paints were the top losers.
In the Asian markets, Jakarta, Bangkok, Japan and Seoul were trading in green, while Hong Kong and China were trading in red.
In the last trading session, Dow Jones in the US closed at 46,381.54, up 66.27 points, or 0.14 per cent. The S&P 500 ended with a gain of 29.39 points, or 0.44 per cent, at 6,693.75 and the Nasdaq closed at 22,788.98, up 157.50 points, or 0.70 per cent.
According to analysts, the major drag on the market since the 2024 September peak is the sustained FII selling, which, in turn, is being triggered by the high valuations in India and attractive valuations elsewhere.
FIIs sold equity worth Rs 121,210 crore in 2024 and this year, they have sold equity for Rs 179,200 crore so far through the exchanges, they said.
The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers as they sold equities worth Rs 2,910.09 crore on September 22, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 2,582.63 crore.
Business
Stock market opens marginally lower, Nifty IT down 2.68 pc

Mumbai, Sep 22: The Indian benchmark indices opened marginally lower on Monday, despite positive global cues, with IT stocks leading losses owing to some concerns over the new US H-1B visa rules.
As of 9.26 am, the Sensex was down 189 points, or 0.23 per cent at 82,772 and the Nifty was down 40 points, or 0.16 per cent at 25,286. Sensex and Nifty had opened with dips of 0.40 per cent and 0.33 per cent respectively, but later cut down on the losses.
IT giants such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, and Coforge slipped in the morning trade.
The US government has clarified that visa holders returning to the country are exempt from the new $100,000 fee, which provided marginal relief to Indian IT companies.
White House said the visa fee would be a one-time payment, applicable only to new applications from the next lottery cycle (March–April 2026), and not on renewals.
The broad cap indices Nifty Midcap 100 dipped 0.05 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 0.12 per cent.
The losers were Tech Mahindra, TCS, Tata Motors, Apollo Hospitals and Dr Reddy’s Labs.
Among sectoral indices, Nifty IT, the top loser, lost 2.68 per cent. Nifty Pharma (down 0.45 per cent) and Nifty Healthcare (down 0.33 per cent) also weighed down on the indices. All other sectoral indices were trading with marginal gains.
The Nifty index has held firmly above the 25,300 mark, closing at 25,327 in the previous session. It continues to trade above its key moving averages—the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs—reaffirming the broader bullish undertone.
Analysts predicted that sentiment will remain positive as long as the index remains above these averages. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,500, followed by the 25,600 and 25,850 zones. The support lies at 25,150 and 25,000 zones.
They said that the market is likely to exhibit mixed behaviour, with the IT sector being affected by the H-1B visa issue and domestic consumption themes responding positively to the potential increase in consumption from lower GST rates kicking in from today.
According to them, the present low interest rate regime will aid the consumption boost and will also facilitate an increase in credit demand, boosting the profitability of financials.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose on Monday, tracking Wall Street’s gains from Friday and boosted by China’s key lending rate decision that kept key rates unchanged.
In the US markets, Nasdaq has added 0.72 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.49 per cent, and the Dow inched up 0.37 per cent in the last trading session.
Most of the Asian markets were trading in the green during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index edged up 0.07 per cent, and Shenzhen advanced 0.17 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 1.45 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.82 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.06 per cent.
On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 390 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 2,105 crore.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open marginally lower amid mixed global cues

Mumbai, Sep 19: The Indian benchmark indices opened marginally lower on Friday, with IT stocks leading the losses in early trade.
As of 9.26 am, Sensex was down 241 points or 0.29 per cent at 82,772 and Nifty was down 63 points or 0.25 per cent at 25,360.
The US Federal Reserve resumed interest rates cut cycle by reducing rates by 25 basis points but the outlook on further easing in the months ahead failed to meet the investors’ dovish expectations, while markets awaited more cues into US policy path, according to analysts.
Nifty Midcap 100 inched up by 0.16 per cent, and the Nifty Small cap 100 lost 0.04 per cent.
Hero MotoCorp, Shriram Finance, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, Tech Mahindra were among major gainers on Nifty, while losers were ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consumer and Titan Company.
Among sectoral indices, Nifty IT, the top loser, lost 0.40 per cent. Nifty FMCG and Nifty Private bank also weighed down on the indices. Except Nifty Realty and PSU Bank all other sectoral indices were trading in the red or with marginal gains.
The Nifty50 held firmly above the 25,400 mark in the previous session, signalling investor confidence with upside momentum intact.
Analysts said that while buying interest is visible at lower levels, the 25,500–25,600 zone remains a stiff hurdle on the upside. On the downside, support is placed at 25,300–25,100 for any minor pullback.
“Market is on an uptrend and is well positioned to set new records soon. Fundamentals, technicals and sentiments are favourable for a steady uptrend. Earnings are likely to improve from Q3 onwards. Technically, short covering is happening and can accelerate,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
From the market sentiment perspective, a US-India trade deal without the penal tariff and a lower reciprocal tariff is likely, he added.
Major US indices made gains overnight as the Nasdaq added 0.94 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.48 per cent and the Dow inched up 0.27 per cent.
Most of the Asian markets were trading in the green during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index dipped 0.12 per cent, and Shenzhen advanced 0.23 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.77 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index moved up 0.12 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.46 per cent.
On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 366 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 3,326 crore.
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