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Economists see RBI dividend to govt surpassing record Rs 2.5 lakh cr in 2025-26

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Mumbai, May 16: Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) dividend to the government to surpass a record over Rs 2.5 lakh crore this year as the central bank earnings, through the sale of dollars to prop up the rupee as it sharply depreciated during 2024-25, are reported to have shot up. This higher profit will be transferred to the government as a dividend in 2025-26.

The previous record dividend transferred to the government stands at Rs 2.1 lakh crore during 2024-25 which helped to keep the fiscal deficit in check, while enabling the Finance Ministry to continue with its expenditure on big ticket infrastructure projects to spur growth and social welfare schemes to uplift the poor.

This was a record jump from the Rs 87,416 crore transferred to the government in 2023-24 for the profit made in 2022-23. Similarly, the government is expected to get another booster shot through the RBI dividend in the current financial year as well.

“Among the RBI’s earnings, forex transactions are expected to be most significant in light of the in light of the central bank’s measures to lower rupee volatility by strong dollar purchases earlier in fiscal 2025 and difference in the current versus historical exchange rate. Add to this the interest income on government securities and earnings from funds extended to banks in midst of previous tight liquidity. “This transfer could amount to a record high at around Rs 2.5-2.7 lakh crore this year,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank.

Earnings on forex transactions are expected to be substantial with gross dollar sales tracking at $371.6 billion in fiscal 2025 till February compared to $153 billion in fiscal 2024, according to Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First bank. She estimates the RBI dividend to be between Rs 2.6 lakh crore to Rs 3 lakh crore, according to an Media report.

The higher dividend creates fiscal space of 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent of GDP, estimates Sengupta. With support from the higher-than-budgeted RBI surplus and savings on a few expenditure heads, the central government is in a fairly strong position to counter the growth slowdown risks and any potential emergency spending requirements.

Apart from helping to lower the fiscal deficit, the RBI dividend will be a significant infusion to core liquidity in the banking system during the current financial year. This will help to keep interest rates low and allow banks to extend more loans to corporates and consumers to accelerate economic growth and create more jobs.

The RBI board of directors met on Thursday to review the economic capital framework which is the basis for deciding the surplus transfer or amount of dividend to be given to the government. The meeting comes ahead of deciding and approving the surplus transfer to the government.

The transferable surplus is determined on the basis of the ECF adopted by the Reserve Bank on August 26, 2019, as per recommendations of the Bimal Jalan-headed Expert Committee to Review the extant Economic Capital Framework of the RBI.

The Committee had recommended that the risk provisioning under the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) be maintained within a range of 6.5 to 5.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet.

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No shortage of petrol, diesel or LPG at retail outlets: Govt officials

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New Delhi, May 21: There is no shortage of petrol, diesel or LPG in the country and petrol pumps that are not giving fuel or giving fuel in reduced quantities are being pulled up, according to senior government officials on Thursday.

The government is receiving feedback about petrol pumps across India and full supply of fuels is being maintained to all retail outlets. There has also been no reduction in oil imports coming from Russia in order to ensure adequate crude supplies to the refineries of oil marketing companies, the officials pointed out.

There has been an increase in sales at some pumps because of the higher demand for diesel due to the harvesting season. There has also been a shift in customers from private oil marketing companies, who have started charging higher prices, to retail filling stations belonging to public sector oil companies.

Besides, institutional or commercial sales, which are priced around Rs 20 higher as per actual international price, have also shifted to petrol pumps, they added.

The officials also pointed out that India’s increase of Rs 3.91 per litre in the prices of petrol and diesel announced this week, works out to 4.4 per cent, which is the smallest hike of any major economy outside the directly subsidising Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, according to figures compiled by GlobalPetrolPrices.com.

An IndianOil official pointed out that the Rs 3.91 increase, which restores only part of the rise of cost in crude, has been undertaken after 76 days of complete absorption of costs by the public sector oil companies. In sharp contrast, the rest of the world has been adjusting price for the rise in crude costs through increases ranging from 10 to 90 per cent in the retail prices of the two fuels.

The pass-through has been steepest in liberalised emerging markets directly exposed to West Asian supply and freight, where governments do not absorb volatility. The Pakistani consumer is paying about 55 per cent more for petrol today than three months ago, the Malaysian about 56 per cent more, and the Emirati consumers about 52 per cent higher prices, the figures show.

In the advanced economies, the increases are smaller in percentage terms but still substantial. American petrol prices, which respond quickly to crude because federal and state excise loadings are modest, have risen by close to 45 per cent and diesel by 48 per cent.

In Europe, where excise duties dampen the swing, the United Kingdom is up about 19 per cent on petrol and 34 per cent on diesel, Germany about 14 per cent on petrol and 20 per cent on diesel, France about 21 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively.

In the case of Japan, South Korea and Singapore, the hike in petrol prices has been held below 20 per cent and the price of diesel has risen considerably faster, with Singapore registering a 65 per cent jump in the price of diesel.

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Indian equity markets trade higher in early deals amid positive global cues

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Mumbai, May 21: Indian equity markets traded higher on Thursday in early deals amid hopes of easing tensions in West Asia after Iran said it was reviewing latest proposal to end the conflict.

In the morning trade, Sensex jumped as much as 0.83 per cent or 627 points to hit an intraday high of 75,945, while Nifty traded 0.84 per cent or 200 points higher at 23,859.

On the sectoral front, realty stocks led the gains, with the Nifty Realty index rising 1.5 per cent. Nifty Cement advanced 1 per cent, while chemicals, auto and media indices also traded higher. PSU Bank and metal stocks too remained in positive territory during the session, with all sectoral indices trading in the green.

Meanwhile, from the 50-share benchmark pack, Infosys, Nestle India, Trent, SBI Life Insurance, Sun Pharma, Tata Consumer Products and ONGC were among the top laggards.

Category-wise, smallcap and midcap shares outperformed the benchmarks in early trade. The Nifty Microcap 250 climbed over 1 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 500 and Nifty Midcap 150 indices gained up to 1 per cent.

Meanwhile, India VIX declined over 4 per cent to around 18, signalling easing volatility.

Analysts said the recent momentum suggests investors are continuing to adopt a “buy on dips” strategy, supported by easing volatility and improving sentiment around foreign fund flows.

According to market experts, concerns over elevated valuations in AI-linked stocks in South Korean and Taiwanese markets could potentially divert foreign investor interest towards India, where valuations are seen as relatively fair in several pockets.

They added that the trajectory of crude oil prices and rupee stability would remain key factors driving near-term market direction.

Experts further noted that while fourth-quarter earnings have remained largely healthy so far, the impact of higher energy prices may become visible from the first quarter of FY27.

Moreover, market sentiment improved after Iran said it was reviewing Washington’s latest proposal to end the conflict, raising hopes of easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

The remarks came after US President Donald Trump indicated that Washington was willing to wait a few days for Tehran’s response, while also warning of renewed attacks if negotiations failed.

In the commodities market, international benchmark Brent crude rose 1.32 per cent to $106.41 per barrel, while US WTI crude jumped nearly 2 per cent to $100.11 per barrel.

Global market sentiment also remained positive. Asian stocks traded in the green, with Japan’s Nikkei rising over 3 per cent, South Korea’s KOSPI surging more than 7 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng trading marginally higher.

In the US, Wall Street ended on a bullish note, with the S&P 500 closing 1 per cent higher and the Nasdaq settling 1.54 per cent up.

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Gold, silver prices fall over 1 pc amid rising US inflation concerns

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Mumbai, May 20: Gold and silver prices declined sharply on Wednesday, with both precious metals falling over 1 per cent amid rising concerns over higher US interest rates.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5) declined as much as 0.7 per cent or Rs 1,121 to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,57,959 as of 11:17 am. The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,58,369, down 0.45 per cent or Rs 711. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,60,378, rising 0.81 per cent or Rs 1,298, according to the exchange.

Meanwhile, silver futures (July 3) also witnessed selling pressure, slipping 1.21 per cent, or Rs 3,269, to Rs 2,66,850, its intraday low so far. The white metal was trading at Rs 2,68,970, down 0.43 per cent or Rs 1,149. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,69,605, lower by 0.19 per cent or Rs 514.

Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened on the MCX at Rs 1,58,974 and Rs 2,67,230, respectively.

In the international market as well, precious metals were trading lower. COMEX gold declined 0.49 per cent to $4,462 per ounce, while COMEX silver slipped 0.17 per cent to $73.868 per ounce.

According to commodity market experts, gold prices remained under pressure as investors assessed rising inflation risks and the possibility of higher US interest rates.

They noted that geopolitical tensions also continued to weigh on sentiment after US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could resume strikes on Iran within “two or three days” if Tehran failed to accept Washington’s peace terms.

The ongoing conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil prices higher and intensifying global inflationary pressures.

Analysts added that rising inflation concerns have reduced expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts while increasing speculation around possible rate hikes later this year.

For silver, experts said the metal has additionally erased recent gains that were supported by optimism around AI-linked stocks and rising demand from data-centre infrastructure expansion.

Meanwhile, domestic stock markets opened lower on Wednesday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty trading in negative territory during early trade.

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