Business
Economists see RBI dividend to govt surpassing record Rs 2.5 lakh cr in 2025-26
Mumbai, May 16: Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) dividend to the government to surpass a record over Rs 2.5 lakh crore this year as the central bank earnings, through the sale of dollars to prop up the rupee as it sharply depreciated during 2024-25, are reported to have shot up. This higher profit will be transferred to the government as a dividend in 2025-26.
The previous record dividend transferred to the government stands at Rs 2.1 lakh crore during 2024-25 which helped to keep the fiscal deficit in check, while enabling the Finance Ministry to continue with its expenditure on big ticket infrastructure projects to spur growth and social welfare schemes to uplift the poor.
This was a record jump from the Rs 87,416 crore transferred to the government in 2023-24 for the profit made in 2022-23. Similarly, the government is expected to get another booster shot through the RBI dividend in the current financial year as well.
“Among the RBI’s earnings, forex transactions are expected to be most significant in light of the in light of the central bank’s measures to lower rupee volatility by strong dollar purchases earlier in fiscal 2025 and difference in the current versus historical exchange rate. Add to this the interest income on government securities and earnings from funds extended to banks in midst of previous tight liquidity. “This transfer could amount to a record high at around Rs 2.5-2.7 lakh crore this year,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank.
Earnings on forex transactions are expected to be substantial with gross dollar sales tracking at $371.6 billion in fiscal 2025 till February compared to $153 billion in fiscal 2024, according to Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First bank. She estimates the RBI dividend to be between Rs 2.6 lakh crore to Rs 3 lakh crore, according to an Media report.
The higher dividend creates fiscal space of 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent of GDP, estimates Sengupta. With support from the higher-than-budgeted RBI surplus and savings on a few expenditure heads, the central government is in a fairly strong position to counter the growth slowdown risks and any potential emergency spending requirements.
Apart from helping to lower the fiscal deficit, the RBI dividend will be a significant infusion to core liquidity in the banking system during the current financial year. This will help to keep interest rates low and allow banks to extend more loans to corporates and consumers to accelerate economic growth and create more jobs.
The RBI board of directors met on Thursday to review the economic capital framework which is the basis for deciding the surplus transfer or amount of dividend to be given to the government. The meeting comes ahead of deciding and approving the surplus transfer to the government.
The transferable surplus is determined on the basis of the ECF adopted by the Reserve Bank on August 26, 2019, as per recommendations of the Bimal Jalan-headed Expert Committee to Review the extant Economic Capital Framework of the RBI.
The Committee had recommended that the risk provisioning under the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) be maintained within a range of 6.5 to 5.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet.
Business
Ashwini Vaishnaw flags off Swarnanagari Express, connecting Jaisalmer to Delhi

Jaipur, Nov 29: Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw and Union Tourism Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat jointly flagged off the Swarnanagari Express on Saturday, which will connect Jaisalmer with Delhi.
During the inauguration ceremony, responding to the request of Union Minister Shekhawat and the locals, the Railways Minister announced the renaming of the newly-launched train from Jaisalmer–Shakur Basti–Jaisalmer to Swarnanagari Express.
He announced that the train will begin regular operations on December 1.
The minister said that development work at Jaisalmer railway station is in its final phase and is expected to be completed within a month.
“Efforts will be made to ensure that Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurates the upgraded station,” he said.
Union Minister Vaishnaw also confirmed that the railway line between Jaisalmer and Jodhpur will be upgraded soon.
According to officials, these initiatives will significantly improve connectivity, boost tourism, and strengthen strategic infrastructure in the border region.
Ashwini Vaishnaw said that the connectivity will strengthen national security.
Preparations are underway to connect several regions along the Rajasthan–Pakistan border with new railway lines.
He said that extending rail connectivity to these sensitive areas will significantly enhance the country’s security infrastructure.
Under this initiative, new railway lines are proposed for Anupgarh, Bikaner, Jaisalmer, Barmer, and Bhildi.
The minister arrived in Jaisalmer on Saturday to inaugurate a new train service to Delhi.
The minister also visited stalls under the One Station, One Product scheme and made purchases to promote local artisans.
He said that the Detailed Project Report (DPR) for the proposed border-area railway lines is being prepared and will be completed in the coming months.
“A complete effort will be made to connect the entire border region,” he assured.
He added that railway projects worth approximately Rs 55,000 crore are currently in progress across Rajasthan, including the redevelopment of 85 railway stations.
Work is also advancing on multiple new railway corridors and infrastructure projects.
The new initiatives, officials said, will improve connectivity, boost tourism, and strengthen strategic infrastructure in the border region.
Business
Nifty, Sensex rally for 2nd week over strong Q2 earnings, domestic inflows

Mumbai, Nov 29: The Indian equity benchmarks made marginal gains for the third consecutive week, supported by positive global cues, robust domestic inflows and strong Q2 earnings.
Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex edged higher 0.34 and 0.52 per cent this week to close at 26,202 and 85,706, respectively.
Analysts said that global cues remained supportive, aided by softer US yields, renewed expectations of a Fed rate cut, and benign crude prices that helped temper inflation concerns.
Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 ending the week down 0.11 per cent and 0.10 per cent respectively.
Gains during the week were led by pharma, PSU banks, media, and IT, while realty, consumer durables, and oil & gas lagged behind.
Indian equities navigated a highly eventful week characterised by alternating phases of volatility, resilience and profit booking, finally closing the week on a positive note.
Nifty reached an intra-day low of 25,842 before bouncing back and making a high of 26,310 on the last day of trading week.
Bharat K Gala, President, Technical Head, Ventura, said that key corrective zones traders should watch out for is the support zone at 25,851–25,566. A breach of this level can take the index to 25,337 and further to 25,107–24,780 zone.
Domestically, the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP print, driven by resilient manufacturing, solid construction activity, and healthy private consumption, is set to support sentiment in the near term, market watchers said.
With robust GDP momentum and improving credit growth providing a solid backdrop for earnings acceleration in H2, the medium-term outlook remains positive, they added.
Investors look for cues next week from a critical lineup of macro data, including India and US PMI releases, US core PCE inflation and the RBI’s policy decision.
Business
India in talks with 50 nations on fair trade deals: Piyush Goyal

New Delhi, Nov 28: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Friday that India is currently engaged in discussions on fair and balanced trade deals with 14 countries or groups representing nearly 50 nations, including the United States, the European Union, GCC countries, New Zealand, Israel, Eurasia, Canada, South Africa and the Mercosur group.
Addressing the annual general meeting of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) here, the minister underlined that balanced and equitable trade agreements have already been concluded with Australia, the UAE, Mauritius, the United Kingdom and the four-nation EFTA bloc.
Highlighting broader global developments, the minister said that recent geopolitical and economic challenges have underscored the need for trusted partners and resilient supply chains. He stated that India’s expanding network of free trade agreements (FTAs) and economic partnerships is aimed at building long-term cooperation anchored in fairness, transparency and mutual benefit.
Goyal said that the idea of self-reliance is central in India’s civilisational ethos, recalling references from the Bhagavad Gita and Mahatma Gandhi’s emphasis on Swadeshi. He said that self-reliance has historically guided India’s progress and continues to remain central to the country’s economic strategy. He added that this vision has been strengthened through the focus on Atmanirbhar Bharat under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Referring to the recent EFTA agreement, the minister noted that the bloc has committed to invest $100 billion in India across innovation and precision manufacturing. He underscored India’s cost competitiveness in research and innovation, stating that high-quality innovation undertaken in India can be achieved at a fraction of the cost compared to Europe or the United States.
The Minister highlighted India’s strengths in innovation and technology, supported by a young demographic, increasing digital adoption and a growing talent pool. He said that India’s large number of STEM graduates and widespread internet access create strong potential in emerging areas such as applied artificial intelligence, automation, robotics and deep-tech innovation.
He noted that the recently announced $12 billion Research, Development and Innovation (RDI) fund, along with ongoing support to startups and deep-tech industries, will further accelerate India’s innovation ecosystem.
Goyal emphasised the importance of strengthening skilling to prepare India’s youth for future opportunities. He said that unlike many developed economies facing ageing populations, India’s youthful demographic is quick to adapt to emerging technologies and has already demonstrated high engagement with digital platforms. He added that this readiness positions India to play a major role in the global technology landscape.
The minister outlined India’s strengths through the ‘PESTLE’ framework, noting that Prime Minister Modi has consistently advanced the vision of self-reliance across sectors. He said that politically, a stable and predictable government committed to “Minimum Government, Maximum Governance” has enhanced investor confidence. In the economic domain, initiatives such as the National Manufacturing Mission and the Rs 25,000 crore Export Promotion Mission are supporting India’s rise towards becoming the world’s third-largest economy.
On the social front, he highlighted that the four Labour Codes ensure better wages and protections, while the Antyodaya approach has supported the fulfilment of basic needs.
In the technology sector, Goyal pointed to initiatives aimed at reducing external dependence, including the Semiconductor Mission (Rs 76,000 crore) and the Rs 7,000 crore programme for permanent magnet production, which strengthen domestic manufacturing and supply chain security. In the legal domain, he referred to ongoing reforms, including progress toward Jan Vishwas 3.0, designed to enhance ease of doing business.
He further noted that the ‘Atomic Energy Bill 2025’ marks a historic shift by opening up the nuclear sector to strengthen energy sovereignty.
The Minister urged FICCI to adopt a mission-driven approach to promoting innovation, deepening research and development, strengthening industry-academia linkages and supporting India’s journey towards becoming a developed nation by 2047.
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