Business
Economists see RBI dividend to govt surpassing record Rs 2.5 lakh cr in 2025-26
Mumbai, May 16: Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) dividend to the government to surpass a record over Rs 2.5 lakh crore this year as the central bank earnings, through the sale of dollars to prop up the rupee as it sharply depreciated during 2024-25, are reported to have shot up. This higher profit will be transferred to the government as a dividend in 2025-26.
The previous record dividend transferred to the government stands at Rs 2.1 lakh crore during 2024-25 which helped to keep the fiscal deficit in check, while enabling the Finance Ministry to continue with its expenditure on big ticket infrastructure projects to spur growth and social welfare schemes to uplift the poor.
This was a record jump from the Rs 87,416 crore transferred to the government in 2023-24 for the profit made in 2022-23. Similarly, the government is expected to get another booster shot through the RBI dividend in the current financial year as well.
“Among the RBI’s earnings, forex transactions are expected to be most significant in light of the in light of the central bank’s measures to lower rupee volatility by strong dollar purchases earlier in fiscal 2025 and difference in the current versus historical exchange rate. Add to this the interest income on government securities and earnings from funds extended to banks in midst of previous tight liquidity. “This transfer could amount to a record high at around Rs 2.5-2.7 lakh crore this year,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank.
Earnings on forex transactions are expected to be substantial with gross dollar sales tracking at $371.6 billion in fiscal 2025 till February compared to $153 billion in fiscal 2024, according to Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First bank. She estimates the RBI dividend to be between Rs 2.6 lakh crore to Rs 3 lakh crore, according to an Media report.
The higher dividend creates fiscal space of 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent of GDP, estimates Sengupta. With support from the higher-than-budgeted RBI surplus and savings on a few expenditure heads, the central government is in a fairly strong position to counter the growth slowdown risks and any potential emergency spending requirements.
Apart from helping to lower the fiscal deficit, the RBI dividend will be a significant infusion to core liquidity in the banking system during the current financial year. This will help to keep interest rates low and allow banks to extend more loans to corporates and consumers to accelerate economic growth and create more jobs.
The RBI board of directors met on Thursday to review the economic capital framework which is the basis for deciding the surplus transfer or amount of dividend to be given to the government. The meeting comes ahead of deciding and approving the surplus transfer to the government.
The transferable surplus is determined on the basis of the ECF adopted by the Reserve Bank on August 26, 2019, as per recommendations of the Bimal Jalan-headed Expert Committee to Review the extant Economic Capital Framework of the RBI.
The Committee had recommended that the risk provisioning under the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) be maintained within a range of 6.5 to 5.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet.
Business
Sensex, Nifty record mild gains amid positive global cues

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Mumbai, Dec 24: Indian benchmark indices made moderate gains early on Wednesday amid positive global cues, as the stock market appears to be in a consolidation phase.
As of 9.30 am, Sensex advanced 105 points, or 0.12 per cent to 85,630 and Nifty gained 40 points, or 0.16 per cent to 26,217.
Main broad-cap indices outperformed benchmark indices in terms of gains, with the Nifty Midcap 100 advanced 0.31 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.53 per cent.
Hindalco Industries, Axis Bank and Cipla were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Tech Mahindra, TCS, Titan Company, Dr Reddy’s Labs and Tata Consumer.
Among sectoral indices on NSE, Media, Metal and Realty were the major gainers — up around 0.82 per cent, 0.58 per cent and 0.78 per cent respectively. Nifty IT was leading losses down 0.49 per cent.
The Nifty could extend its advance toward resistance levels at 26,202 and 26,330, while 26,000 is expected to provide near-term support, said experts.
Analysts said that the market appears to be consolidating upward as CY2025 ends. Strong domestic macros and earnings growth expectations in Q3 and Q4 of FY26 and FY27 will support the market.
The market will be resilient due to domestic inflows and DII buying but FIIs may sell rallies, preventing a sharp breakout. The revival of the AI trade in US might impact sentiments in favour of a ‘non-AI trade’ in markets like India, they added.
An additional Rs 2 lakh crore OMO by the RBI will boost liquidity and lower yields, providing positive momentum to credit growth and bank stocks. The RBI on Tuesday announced a fresh set of steps to inject a large amount of money into the banking system to ease tight liquidity conditions.
Asia-Pacific markets traded flat with a positive bias, with several indexes set to close early in lieu of the Christmas Eve holiday.
In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index advanced 0.24 per cent, and Shenzhen edged up 0.31 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 0.06 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.08 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.12 per cent.
The US markets ended mostly in the green zone overnight, as Nasdaq advanced 0.57 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.46 per cent, and the Dow moved up 0.16 per cent.
On Tuesday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,795 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 3,812 crore.
Business
Indian stock market opens lower, IT stocks lead losses

Mumbai, Dec 23: Indian benchmark indices opened in the red zone on Tuesday, weighed down by losses in the IT stocks after artificial intelligence (AI) stocks in the US showed revival.
As of 9.30 am, the Sensex declined 159 points, or 0.19 per cent to 85,407 and the Nifty lost 32 points, or 0.13 per cent to 26,139.
Main broad cap indices showed divergent trends, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.18 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.07 per cent.
ONGC, Tata Steel and NTPC were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Max Healthcare, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Asian Paints and ICICI Bank.
Sectoral indices on NSE were trading in the mixed zone, with IT leading losses down 1.21 per cent. Oil and gas as well as metal were the major gainers, up around 0.43 and 0.41 per cent, respectively.
Immediate resistance for Nifty is placed at 26,300–26,350, while key supports are located at 26,000–26,050 zone, said analysts.
Market watchers found two factors to affect the market in the near term, including positive macros or fundamentals and AI trade revival. Positive macro indicators may embolden bulls to push Nifty and Sensex to new highs. But the strong AI trade revival is a mild negative externally which may delay the anticipated FII outflow reversal, they said.
Defence stocks are seemingly recovering, with more room for growth in the segment, while the IT sector has also turned resilient, analysts said.
Asia-Pacific markets showed moderate gains on Tuesday, after AI trade lifted major Wall Street indexes overnight.
In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index advanced 0.34 per cent, and Shenzhen edged up 0.65 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 0.02 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.33 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.45 per cent.
The US markets ended mostly in the green zone overnight, as Nasdaq advanced 0.52 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.64 per cent, and the Dow moved up 0.47 per cent.
Investors are keen on rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela and delays in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. The killing of a Russian army general in a bomb attack on Monday raised concerns over the peace process, lending support to crude oil prices.
On Monday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 516 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 3,898 crore.
Business
India-New Zealand FTA: PM Modi, Luxon aim to double bilateral trade over 5 years

New Delhi, Dec 22: Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a telephone conversation with New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, on Monday as the two leaders jointly announced the successful conclusion of the historic, ambitious and mutually beneficial India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
During the conversation, both leaders expressed confidence in doubling bilateral trade over the next five years as well as an investment of $20 billion in India from New Zealand over the next 15 years.
The negotiations began in March this year and the two leaders concluded the FTA in a record time of nine months, reflecting the shared ambition and political will to further deepen ties between the two countries, according to a statement from Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).
“The FTA would significantly deepen bilateral economic engagement, enhance market access, promote investment flows, strengthen strategic cooperation between the two countries, and also open up new opportunities for innovators, entrepreneurs, farmers, MSMEs, students and youth of both countries across various sectors,” said the statement.
The leaders also welcomed the progress achieved in other areas of bilateral cooperation such as sports, education, and people-to-people ties, and reaffirmed their commitment towards further strengthening of the India-New Zealand partnership.
This historic FTA eliminates and reduces tariffs on 95 per cent of New Zealand’s exports – among the highest of any Indian FTA – with almost 57 per cent being duty-free from day one, increasing to 82 per cent when fully implemented, with the remaining 13 per cent subject to sharp tariff cuts.
It puts New Zealand exporters on an equal or better footing to our competitors across a range of sectors and opens the door to India’s rapidly expanding middle class, according to an official statement from New Zealand.
“The Indian economy is forecast to grow to NZ$12 trillion by 2030. The India-NZ Free Trade Agreement unleashes huge potential for our world-class exporters to the world’s largest country and will significantly accelerate progress towards New Zealand’s ambitious goal of doubling the value of exports over 10 years,” it added.
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