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Economists see RBI dividend to govt surpassing record Rs 2.5 lakh cr in 2025-26

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Mumbai, May 16: Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) dividend to the government to surpass a record over Rs 2.5 lakh crore this year as the central bank earnings, through the sale of dollars to prop up the rupee as it sharply depreciated during 2024-25, are reported to have shot up. This higher profit will be transferred to the government as a dividend in 2025-26.

The previous record dividend transferred to the government stands at Rs 2.1 lakh crore during 2024-25 which helped to keep the fiscal deficit in check, while enabling the Finance Ministry to continue with its expenditure on big ticket infrastructure projects to spur growth and social welfare schemes to uplift the poor.

This was a record jump from the Rs 87,416 crore transferred to the government in 2023-24 for the profit made in 2022-23. Similarly, the government is expected to get another booster shot through the RBI dividend in the current financial year as well.

“Among the RBI’s earnings, forex transactions are expected to be most significant in light of the in light of the central bank’s measures to lower rupee volatility by strong dollar purchases earlier in fiscal 2025 and difference in the current versus historical exchange rate. Add to this the interest income on government securities and earnings from funds extended to banks in midst of previous tight liquidity. “This transfer could amount to a record high at around Rs 2.5-2.7 lakh crore this year,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank.

Earnings on forex transactions are expected to be substantial with gross dollar sales tracking at $371.6 billion in fiscal 2025 till February compared to $153 billion in fiscal 2024, according to Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First bank. She estimates the RBI dividend to be between Rs 2.6 lakh crore to Rs 3 lakh crore, according to an Media report.

The higher dividend creates fiscal space of 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent of GDP, estimates Sengupta. With support from the higher-than-budgeted RBI surplus and savings on a few expenditure heads, the central government is in a fairly strong position to counter the growth slowdown risks and any potential emergency spending requirements.

Apart from helping to lower the fiscal deficit, the RBI dividend will be a significant infusion to core liquidity in the banking system during the current financial year. This will help to keep interest rates low and allow banks to extend more loans to corporates and consumers to accelerate economic growth and create more jobs.

The RBI board of directors met on Thursday to review the economic capital framework which is the basis for deciding the surplus transfer or amount of dividend to be given to the government. The meeting comes ahead of deciding and approving the surplus transfer to the government.

The transferable surplus is determined on the basis of the ECF adopted by the Reserve Bank on August 26, 2019, as per recommendations of the Bimal Jalan-headed Expert Committee to Review the extant Economic Capital Framework of the RBI.

The Committee had recommended that the risk provisioning under the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) be maintained within a range of 6.5 to 5.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet.

International

India asks its nationals to evacuate Tehran, be in touch with Embassy

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Tehran, June 17: India has urged its nationals in Iran and Persons of Indian Origin(PIO) to evacuate Tehran, shift to a safer location and be in touch with the Embassy, following escalating tensions in the region.

As the Israel-Iran conflict entered its fifth day, the hostilities between the two nations continued to escalate as several missiles from Iran were fired at Israel, triggering air raid sirens in Haifa and dozens of other cities and communities across northern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights, confirmed by the Israeli military.

“All Indian Nationals and PIOs who can move out of Tehran using their own resources, are advised to move to a safe location outside the City,” the Indian Embassy in Iran posted on X.

“All Indian Nationals who are in Tehran and not in touch with the Embassy are requested to contact the Embassy of India in Tehran immediately and provide their Location and Contact numbers. Kindly contact: +989010144557; +989128109115; +989128109109,” it added.

Additionally, US President Donald Trump has also urged the people to evacuate Tehran as the hostilities escalated.

“Iran should have signed the deal I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday.

The US President also announced that he would cut short his visit to the Group of 7 (G7) summit in Canada to closely monitor the situation amid the escalating tension in the Middle East.

“I have to be back as soon as I can. I have to be back early for obvious reasons,” Trump told reporters at the summit convening in the Canadian Rockies.

Meanwhile, in the latest developments, Bazan, Israel’s largest oil refinery company, announced that all of its facilities at the Haifa Port had been completely shut down due to the damage caused by an Iranian missile strike.

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National

Calcutta HC to pass interim order today on plea challenging Mamata govt’s fresh OBC survey pattern

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Kolkata, June 17: A division bench of the Calcutta High Court, on Tuesday, will pass an interim order on the petition filed against the pattern of the fresh survey conducted by the West Bengal government to identify the Other Backwards Classes (OBCs) in the state.

The fresh survey was started by the state government following its promise made to the Supreme Court on March 18, while hearing a matter where the state government challenged an earlier order of the Calcutta High Court in May 2024, scrapping all OBC certificates issued in West Bengal since 2010.

On March 18, the state government also promised the apex court to complete the process of the fresh survey within the next three months. However, a petition was filed at the Calcutta High Court challenging the pattern of the fresh survey.

The petitioner accused the state government of entertaining applications only from those 113 OBC communities that were scrapped by the Calcutta High Court.

Last month, when the hearing on the petition came up at the Calcutta High Court, the division bench also raised some questions on the style of conducting the fresh survey by the state government.

The division bench also observed that if individuals genuinely eligible for getting the OBC certificates are not aware of the details of the fresh survey, they will be denied their legitimate rights, and hence, the main purpose of the fresh survey would be defeated.

It also directed the state government to make proper publicity of the fresh survey by issuing advertisements at the grassroots level, starting from village panchayats. The state government counsels, throughout the course of the hearing, had maintained that the fresh survey was conducted as per the court’s directions.

To recall, in May last year, a division bench of the Calcutta High Court cancelled all the OBC certificates issued in West Bengal after 2010, which ideally meant that all such certificates issued during the current Trinamool Congress regime in the state since 2011 stood cancelled.

Following this order from the division bench of Justice Tapabrata Chakraborty and Justice Rajasekhar Mantha, over 5,00,000 OBC certificates issued during that period stood cancelled and could not be used for enjoying the reservation quota for jobs.

The West Bengal government moved the Supreme Court on the Calcutta High Court order, and in March this year, the apex court allowed the state government to conduct a fresh survey to identify the OBCs in the state.

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International

Trump cuts short participation at G7 summit over Iran-Israel crisis

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Kananaskis, June 17: US President Donald Trump announced he was abruptly cutting short his participation in the G7 summit and returning home early to deal with the Iran-Israel crisis.

” I have to be back early for obvious reasons”, Trump earlier told reporters. He said he would be leaving after the formal dinner “with these wonderful leaders”.

He will be missing Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who arrived in Calgary Monday evening and will be participating in the summit of the powerful industrialised democracies, along with a select group of emerging economies, on Tuesday.

The summit was overshadowed by the escalating war of missiles between Israel and Iran that began on Friday.

When the summit began at this picturesque resort known for its ski slopes, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney told the leaders gathered around a glass-topped circular table that they were at “one of those turning points in history”.

The world is “more divided and dangerous” than during the recent G7 summits, and this was a “hinge” moment when the world “looks to this table” for solutions, he said.

Already, there were signs of a rift between the US and the other leaders because White House officials had said that Trump would not sign a joint declaration calling on both the warring nations to de-escalate.

“As soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something”, Trump said ominously about cutting short his visit.

On Truth Social, he posted a threat to Iranians: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

“Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again”, he said.

NBC News reported that, according to an administration official, Trump had told the National Security Council to be ready in the White House Situation Room when he returns.

That is where strategic decisions are made and monitored.

From his post asking for the evacuation of Tehran, it was not clear if the US would directly intervene in the conflict or if it had information of a major onslaught by Israel.

Israel’s attacks on Iran scuttled Trump’s diplomacy with Iran to find a solution to ending Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme.

Muddying the picture, Trump had also said, “I think Iran basically is at the negotiating table, they want to make a deal”.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that Trump said that talks were underway.

There were US offers and “if the United States can get a ceasefire, that’s a very good thing”, Macron said.

Earlier in the day, the proceedings at the summit appeared to be going smoothly without the anticipated fireworks because of Trump’s tariff war against the participating countries and threats to take over Canada.

Others at the summit are Prime Ministers Keir Starmer of Britain, Giorgia Meloni of Italy, Shigeru Ishiba of Japan, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa, along with host Carney, who is also the president of G7.

Besides Modi, other invitees to the G7 meeting are Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil, and Lee Jae-Myung of South Korea, and Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese of Australia, and Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, who will participate at the summit on Tuesday.

About Monday, Trump told reporters, “I think we got a lot done”.

He and Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a trade agreement sealing their peace in the tariff war.

Trump had a long meeting of about an hour with Carney, who said a trade deal was achievable. According to Carney’s office, the “leaders agreed to pursue negotiations toward a deal within the coming 30 days”.

Another point of dissonance was the expulsion of Russia from what used to be the G8, before shrinking to the G7. Trump said that if Moscow hadn’t been thrown out, the war with Ukraine wouldn’t have happened. “I would say that was a mistake because I think you wouldn’t have a war right now”, he said.

At the 2018 G7 summit also in Canada, Trump had raised the expulsion of Russia, and his suggestion to readmit Moscow led to an angry confrontation led by the then German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Trump had also shortened his participation at that summit to go to a meeting with North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un. That meeting failed when North Korea refused to agree to a solution to end its nuclear ambitions in return for lifting sanctions – a scenario similar to the diplomacy with Iran now.

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