Business
Economists see RBI dividend to govt surpassing record Rs 2.5 lakh cr in 2025-26

Mumbai, May 16: Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) dividend to the government to surpass a record over Rs 2.5 lakh crore this year as the central bank earnings, through the sale of dollars to prop up the rupee as it sharply depreciated during 2024-25, are reported to have shot up. This higher profit will be transferred to the government as a dividend in 2025-26.
The previous record dividend transferred to the government stands at Rs 2.1 lakh crore during 2024-25 which helped to keep the fiscal deficit in check, while enabling the Finance Ministry to continue with its expenditure on big ticket infrastructure projects to spur growth and social welfare schemes to uplift the poor.
This was a record jump from the Rs 87,416 crore transferred to the government in 2023-24 for the profit made in 2022-23. Similarly, the government is expected to get another booster shot through the RBI dividend in the current financial year as well.
“Among the RBI’s earnings, forex transactions are expected to be most significant in light of the in light of the central bank’s measures to lower rupee volatility by strong dollar purchases earlier in fiscal 2025 and difference in the current versus historical exchange rate. Add to this the interest income on government securities and earnings from funds extended to banks in midst of previous tight liquidity. “This transfer could amount to a record high at around Rs 2.5-2.7 lakh crore this year,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank.
Earnings on forex transactions are expected to be substantial with gross dollar sales tracking at $371.6 billion in fiscal 2025 till February compared to $153 billion in fiscal 2024, according to Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First bank. She estimates the RBI dividend to be between Rs 2.6 lakh crore to Rs 3 lakh crore, according to an Media report.
The higher dividend creates fiscal space of 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent of GDP, estimates Sengupta. With support from the higher-than-budgeted RBI surplus and savings on a few expenditure heads, the central government is in a fairly strong position to counter the growth slowdown risks and any potential emergency spending requirements.
Apart from helping to lower the fiscal deficit, the RBI dividend will be a significant infusion to core liquidity in the banking system during the current financial year. This will help to keep interest rates low and allow banks to extend more loans to corporates and consumers to accelerate economic growth and create more jobs.
The RBI board of directors met on Thursday to review the economic capital framework which is the basis for deciding the surplus transfer or amount of dividend to be given to the government. The meeting comes ahead of deciding and approving the surplus transfer to the government.
The transferable surplus is determined on the basis of the ECF adopted by the Reserve Bank on August 26, 2019, as per recommendations of the Bimal Jalan-headed Expert Committee to Review the extant Economic Capital Framework of the RBI.
The Committee had recommended that the risk provisioning under the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) be maintained within a range of 6.5 to 5.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet.
Business
Mukesh Ambani Planning To Introduce ₹52,200 Crore Worth IPO, Reliance To List Jio Infocomm In Stock Market

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), led by the country’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, is planning to bring the biggest IPO ever. RIL is preparing to list its telecom business, Jio Infocomm, in the stock market. This IPO can be worth Rs 52,200 crore (about $6 billion).
Reliance Starts Informal Talks With SEBI
According to a Bloomberg report, Reliance has started informal talks with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to get approval to sell just 5% stake in Jio. If this approval is received, this IPO will break the record of Hyundai Motor India’s Rs 28,000 crore IPO.
Actually, under the current rules of SEBI, companies have to sell at least a 25% stake for public float. But Reliance has told SEBI that the Indian market does not have the capacity to bear such a big offer. Therefore, the company is seeking an exemption to sell 5% stake.
When Will The IPO Launch?
According to Bloomberg sources, this IPO can be launched in the early months of next year, although its size and timing will depend on the market situation. If this plan is successful, it will be the country’s largest IPO.
Jio’s IPO will give an opportunity to big foreign investors like Meta Platforms and Alphabet Inc. (Google) to sell their stake. In 2020, both these companies invested more than $20 billion in Jio Platforms. During this period, Jio’s valuation was $58 billion.
Which Other Investors Have Invested In Jio?
Apart from this, investors like KKR, General Atlantic, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority have also invested heavily in Jio. Market experts say that Jio’s valuation can be more than $100 billion. However, Reliance wants to increase its income and subscriber base further before the IPO so that the valuation can be increased further.
Business
Adani Green Energy Sales Jump 42% In Q1, Operational RE Capacity Reaches 15.8 GW

Key Highlights:
– Energy sales rose 42 percent YoY to 10,479 million units in Q1 FY26.
– Operational RE capacity reached 15.8 GW, the highest in India.
– EBITDA surged 31 percent to Rs 3,108 crore, backed by new greenfield projects.
Ahmedabad: Adani Green Energy Ltd’s (AGEL) energy sales surged 42 per cent (year-on-year) in the April-June quarter (Q1 FY26) to 10,479 million units, as operational renewable energy (RE) capacity grew 45 per cent to 15.8 GW which continues to be India’s largest, the company said on Monday.
While revenue growth increased by 31 per cent (on-year) to Rs 3,312 crore, EBITDA also went up by 31 per cent to Rs 3,108 crore.
According to the Adani Group company, cash profit surged by 25 per cent (on-year) to Rs 1,744 crore in the quarter.
“During Q1 FY26, we added 1.6 GW of greenfield renewable energy capacity, bringing our total increase to 4.9 GW over the past year — an achievement unmatched in India’s transition toward clean energy,” said Ashish Khanna, CEO of Adani Green Energy.
“Our investments in the massive RE development at Khavda in Gujarat as well as other resource-rich sites are delivering results both in terms of superior operational performance and industry-best EBITDA margins,” he said, adding that the company is on track to achieve its 2030 target of 50 GW RE capacity — with at least 5 GW of hydro pumped storage along with battery storage.
Strong revenue, EBITDA, and cash profit growth are primarily backed by robust greenfield capacity addition, deployment of advanced RE technologies, superior plant performance and deployment of new capacities in resource-rich sites in Khavda (Gujarat) and Rajasthan.
“Further, battery storage is also a key part of our future strategy. We remain committed to supporting national energy transition and security ambitions as well as maintaining our ESG leadership, highlighted by our top rankings in the FTSE Russel ESG assessment and recognition at the Reuters Global Energy Transition Awards 2025,” Khanna noted.
AGEL has consistently generated electricity exceeding the overall annual commitment under the power purchase agreements (PPA). In Q1 FY26, AGEL’s PPA-based electricity generation was 31 per cent of the annual commitment.
The company is developing a massive 30 GW renewable energy plant at Khavda in Gujarat. This is spread over an area of 538 sq km, almost 5 times the city of Paris.
Business
Sensex May Touch 1.15 Lakh And Nifty 43,876 By FY28 In Bull Case, Says Ventura Stock Broking Report

Mumbai: In a bull case scenario, Sensex is projected to reach 115,836 and Nifty is likely touch 43,876 by the financial year 2028 (FY28), a report said on Friday.
However, in a bear case scenario, Sensex is projected to reach 1,04,804 and Nifty at 39,697 by FY28, Ventura, a stock broking platform, said in its recent projection.
Nifty is expected to oscillate within a well-defined price-to-earnings (PE) band in these three years, with projected robust earnings growth with estimated FY28 earnings per share compound annual growth rate (EPS CAGR) of 12-14 per cent.
“In the last 10 years, the Indian economy has demonstrated resilience and clocked the highest GDP growth as a large economy despite global headwinds of NBFC crisis, Covid 19, Russia-Ukraine war and the recent uncertainty on US President Donald Trump tariff,” said Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research, Ventura.
The risk mitigation influencers will outweigh the current challenges, which will usher Indian GDP growth to 7.3 per cent by FY30(E), he added.
By FY28, the Indian index will be at a PE level of 21 times in the bull case and 19 times in the bear case with an estimated earnings-per-share (EPS) of 5,516 for Sensex and 2,089 for Nifty 50, the report stated.
Over the past ten years, India has demonstrated extraordinary resilience by navigating a series of unprecedented disruptions without compromising its growth trajectory.
From the “Fragile Five” designation to demonetisation, GST implementation, a crippling NBFC crisis, and the dual shock of COVID-19 waves, India has withstood and adapted to adversity, the report highlighted.
According to the report, even global headwinds like the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump-era tariffs have failed to derail its momentum, underlining the robustness of the Indian economy.
As of the mid-season point for Q1 FY26 earnings, 159 companies have reported Q1 FY26 results, revealing broad-based strength across key sectors.
Engineering/manufacturing and services sectors have led the pack, while consumption, commodities, and pharma show steady performance, the report stated.
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