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Economic indicators’ data expected to be mixed on geopolitical disruptions

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 The key high frequency economic indicators for March 2022 are expected to paint a mixed picture of the economy’s health.

The high frequency indicators include passenger vehicle and motorcycle production, output of Coal India, non-oil merchandise exports, ports cargo traffic, rail freight, GST e-way bills, finished steel consumption and non-food bank credit of scheduled commercial banks, amongst others

Accordingly, low base related to onset of second wave of last year may partly counteract disruption caused by geopolitical factors for some sectors over the next few weeks.

“Early data for March 2022 is mixed,” ratings agency ICRA said.

As per the agency, while the year-on-year (YoY) growth in electricity demand has eased to 3.7 per cent in March 1-15, 2022 from 4.5 per cent in February 2022, the sales of petrol and diesel of state refiners have witnessed a robust sequential growth in the first half of March 2022.

Besides, vehicle registrations stood at 0.83 million during March 1-17, 2022, equivalent to 50 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively, of the year-ago and prior month levels.

“However, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the resultant surge in key commodity prices, as well as the supply chain implications of the renewed lockdowns in China, do not augur well for the performance of inbound or outbound cargo shipments at ports and sectors such as automobiles, which are partly dependent on key raw materials provided by either of these nations, in the absence of any other alternatives.”

In last month’s data, the agency said that despite the lifting of state-wise restrictions after the rapid abatement of the third wave of Covid-19 in India, the YoY performance of nine of the 16 high frequency indicators worsened in February 2022, relative to January 2022.

However, eight of the 14 non-financial sectors exceeded their pre-Covid volumes in February 2022, in line with the previous month.

Moreover, the daily average generation of GST e-way bills scaled a new peak in February 2022, indicating a healthy rebound in economic activity.

“With the modest uptick in the YoY growth of electricity demand, amidst a dip in the YoY performance of CIL, we expect the IIP growth to remain sub-2 per cent in February 2022.”

“In month-on-month (MoM) terms, as many as nine of the 14 non-financial indicators reported a decline in February 2022, partly attributed to the fewer days in February 2022, compared to the previous month.”

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India-New Zealand FTA: PM Modi, Luxon aim to double bilateral trade over 5 years

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New Delhi, Dec 22: Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a telephone conversation with New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, on Monday as the two leaders jointly announced the successful conclusion of the historic, ambitious and mutually beneficial India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

During the conversation, both leaders expressed confidence in doubling bilateral trade over the next five years as well as an investment of $20 billion in India from New Zealand over the next 15 years.

The negotiations began in March this year and the two leaders concluded the FTA in a record time of nine months, reflecting the shared ambition and political will to further deepen ties between the two countries, according to a statement from Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).

“The FTA would significantly deepen bilateral economic engagement, enhance market access, promote investment flows, strengthen strategic cooperation between the two countries, and also open up new opportunities for innovators, entrepreneurs, farmers, MSMEs, students and youth of both countries across various sectors,” said the statement.

The leaders also welcomed the progress achieved in other areas of bilateral cooperation such as sports, education, and people-to-people ties, and reaffirmed their commitment towards further strengthening of the India-New Zealand partnership.

This historic FTA eliminates and reduces tariffs on 95 per cent of New Zealand’s exports – among the highest of any Indian FTA – with almost 57 per cent being duty-free from day one, increasing to 82 per cent when fully implemented, with the remaining 13 per cent subject to sharp tariff cuts.

It puts New Zealand exporters on an equal or better footing to our competitors across a range of sectors and opens the door to India’s rapidly expanding middle class, according to an official statement from New Zealand.

“The Indian economy is forecast to grow to NZ$12 trillion by 2030. The India-NZ Free Trade Agreement unleashes huge potential for our world-class exporters to the world’s largest country and will significantly accelerate progress towards New Zealand’s ambitious goal of doubling the value of exports over 10 years,” it added.

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Mumbai-Bound Air India Flight Returns To Delhi Airport Minutes After Take Off Due To Technical Glitch

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New Delhi: A Mumbai-bound Air India flight AI887 returned to the Delhi Airport minutes after take-off due to a technical issue. The Delhi–Mumbai flight made an emergency landing according to standard operating procedure.

As perv an Air India spokesperson, the aircraft (Boeing 777) landed safely at Delhi, and the passengers and crew disembarked.

The Boeing 777 suffered an engine issue soon after take-off, reported The Times of India. The aircraft reportedly took off at 6.10 am and returned to the airport at 6.52 am. The aircraft is currently undergoing necessary checks.

As per the report, the airline arranged another B777 (VT-ALP) for passengers and even provided refreshments for them.

On Sunday, over 100 flights were cancelled from the Delhi Airport due to dense fog conditions in the national capital. Meanwhile, more than 400 flights were also delayed at the airport.

Over the past few days, most parts of the nothern and northwestern regions of the country are witnessing dense fog condition.

“Dense to very dense fog conditions during night/morning hours very likely in some parts of Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana till morning hours of 21st; in isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana during 25th-27,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had said in its press statement on Sunday.

On Friday also, an Air India flight travelling from Mumbai to Varanasi was forced to make an emergency diversion to Bhubaneswar after deteriorating weather conditions made landing at the destination airport unsafe. The aircraft landed at Biju Patnaik International Airport (BPIA) as a precautionary measure, airline officials confirmed.

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Sensex, Nifty open in green zone amid positive global cues

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Mumbai, Dec 22: Indian benchmark indices opened in green zone on Monday, breaking the last week’s trend of edging lower, amid strong buying in the US and China markets.

As of 9.30 am, the Sensex advanced 507 points, or 0.60 per cent, at 84,436 and the Nifty added 165 points, or 0.64 per cent to 26,132.

The broad cap indices performed in line with the benchmarks, with the Nifty Midcap 100 up 0.58 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 adding 0.51 per cent.

Hindalco, Tech Mahindra and TCS were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, Max Healthcare and Cipla.

All the sectoral indices on NSE were trading in the green with metal, IT and media being the major gainers — up around 1.48, 1.23 and 0.77 per cent, respectively.

Analysts noted that market is likely heading for a year-end rally. The rupee’s sharp reversal and FIIs’ cash market purchases can accelerate this rally, as they lead to short covering, pushing benchmark indices higher. The Goldilocks domestic economic set up and potential earnings growth uptrend can support a market upturn, they added.

The US markets ended mostly in the green zone on the last trading day, as Nasdaq advanced 1.31 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.88 per cent, and the Dow moved up 0.38 per cent.

As investors parsed China’s central bank keeping loan prime rate steady, Asia-Pacific markets rose on Monday.

The People’s Bank of China maintained its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates steady, which affects most new and outstanding loans and mortgages.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index advanced 0.64 per cent, and Shenzhen dropped 1.36 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei edged up 1.75 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.29 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.72 per cent.

On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 2,387 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 5,200 crore.

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