Business
Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation while pushing private capex
Union Budget 2022 will focus on gradual fiscal consolidation while pushing public capex, creating a conducive environment for private capex, and raising resources via strategic divestments, Morgan Stanley said in a report.
The budget is likely to focus on gradual fiscal consolidation, continuing to favour investment-driven growth with a push for both public and private capex, and raising additional resources through strategic divestments and asset monetization.
“Apart from this, we would be looking for clarity for Indian bonds to be included into global bond indices. Indeed, the overall focus of the government should be to utilize all revenue levers effectively (tax compliance to improve tax to GDP, strategic asset sales) to sustainably improve the health of the public sector balance sheet”, Morgan Stanley said.
The impact of the budget on the market has been on a secular decline. Nevertheless, market participants still need to negotiate volatility. Factors that will likely have maximum impact include a credible fiscal deficit target, the government’s spending plans vs fiscal consolidation, changes to long-term capital gains tax, lower taxes for the services sector, resolution of tax issues for FAR bonds, and the timing and quantum of asset sales.
The disruptions from the pandemic have weighed heavily on India’s fiscal metrics, with the central government’s fiscal deficit rising to an all-time high of 9.2 per cent of GDP in FY21. However, the story has changed in FY2022 with a positive surprise from tax revenue, which has seen improved buoyancy. As such, gross tax revenue is expected to track at 10.9 per cent of GDP in F2022 vs the budget estimate of 9.9 per cent of the GDP. As such, we expect the fiscal deficit to be at 6.8 per cent of GDP, assuming the LIC IPO is deferred to F2023. If the IPO happens in F2022, the fiscal deficit could be lower at 6.4 per cent of GDP, Morgan Stanley said.
“We expect the fiscal deficit to be 6 per cent of GDP in F2023, driven by some reduction in pandemic-related spending and continued tax buoyancy. A gradual fiscal consolidation path will also give the government flexibility to provide any additional support to the economy should Covid-related disruptions continue into F2023”, it added.
Business
RBI policy, Q1 earnings and global cues likely to drive Dalal Street after strong weekly rebound

Mumbai, Aug 2: Indian equity markets will enter the new trading week with investors closely tracking the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision, a fresh round of June quarter earnings, global geopolitical developments, crude oil prices and foreign institutional investor (FII) flows after benchmark indices staged a strong recovery in the previous week.
The market snapped its recent losing streak as easing crude oil prices, improving geopolitical sentiment, strong corporate earnings for the April-June quarter and renewed buying by foreign institutional investors lifted investor confidence.
The decline in crude oil prices from recent highs helped ease concerns over imported inflation, pressure on corporate margins and India’s external account, providing support to equities.
The Nifty advanced 2.59 per cent during the week to close at 24,383.60, while the Sensex gained 2.68 per cent to settle at 78,094.64. Both benchmark indices also recorded their second consecutive monthly gain in July.
Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that a decisive close above the 24,500–24,600 zone could extend the rally towards 25,200.
“On the downside, 24,100 is expected to provide immediate support, followed by a stronger support zone in the 23,600–23,800 range,” an analyst stated.
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be the key domestic event this week. The three-day meeting will begin on August 3, with the policy decision and RBI Governor’s statement scheduled for August 5.
Investors will closely monitor the central bank’s commentary on inflation, economic growth and the future interest rate trajectory for cues on market direction.
Corporate earnings will remain another major driver as several heavyweight companies are set to announce their financial results for the first quarter of FY27.
Global developments will also remain on investors’ radar amid persistent tensions in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump warned of additional strikes on Iran as Washington stepped up efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil prices will continue to be closely monitored after ending Friday more than $1 per barrel higher and registering their strongest monthly gains since March amid concerns over global supply disruptions following reports that some oil tankers had reversed course in the Strait of Hormuz.
Business
ITR deadline, RBI MPC meet among key financial deadlines, events in August

New Delhi, Aug 1: August brings a slew of financial deadlines and events that could affect taxpayers and banking customers, including an August 31 income tax return (ITR) deadline for businesses and professionals, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and bank service charge changes.
Taxpayers who are required to file ITR‑3 or ITR‑4 and not subject to tax audit — including self‑employed professionals, freelancers and small business owners using presumptive taxation under Sections 44AD and 44ADA — must file income tax returns by August 31.
Late filing fee penalty could be up to Rs 5,000 under Section 234F and interest on unpaid tax under Section 234A, where applicable.
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled to start from August 3, with its policy decision due on August 5.
RBI’s stance on interest rates and liquidity could influence home loan EMIs, lending rates and fixed‑deposit returns in the coming months.
The RBI is likely to keep policy rates unchanged as consumer price inflation is expected to remain above 5 per cent for the next two quarters and Q1 FY27 domestic product growth may exceed about 7 per cent, a recent report said.
An explicitly dovish message is less likely given oil volatility, rupee pressure and external flow caution.
Meanwhile, Indian Railways has launched a token-based system for Tatkal ticket booking at reservation counters from August 1 to streamline the booking process and reduce crowding at ticket counters.
Axis Bank will cut benefits on its premium Magnus for Burgundy card from August 28, raising the Dynamic Currency Conversion markup from 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent. Reward points on toll‑related transactions and gift‑card purchases will be discontinued.
Several banks are set to revise select service charges in August, like debit card annual maintenance charges, transaction fees, or other banking service charges.
Business
Indian Railways launches online excess luggage booking with ticket reservations

New Delhi, July 31: Passengers travelling by train can now book and pay for excess luggage online while reserving their tickets, as Indian Railways on Friday rolled out a new digital facility aimed at making the travel process more convenient.
The service integrates excess luggage booking with the online ticket reservation system, eliminating the need for passengers to visit parcel offices separately before boarding.
Previously, travellers carrying baggage beyond the free allowance had to complete a separate booking process at railway parcel counters, often leading to additional paperwork and long queues.
The online excess luggage booking facility is available only to passengers holding confirmed tickets and is restricted to travel classes where carrying luggage beyond the free allowance is permitted upon payment of the prescribed charges.
Passengers travelling in AC First Class, AC 2-Tier, First Class, Sleeper Class and Second Class can avail of the service.
However, those travelling in AC 3-Tier and AC Chair Car will not be eligible, as the maximum permissible baggage limit in these classes is the same as the free luggage allowance.
Under the existing baggage rules, AC First Class passengers are entitled to carry up to 70 kg free of charge and can carry a maximum of 150 kg after paying excess luggage charges.
Passengers in AC 2-Tier and First Class are allowed 50 kg free, with a maximum permissible limit of 100 kg.
Sleeper Class passengers can carry 40 kg free and up to 80 kg in total, while Second Class passengers have a free allowance of 35 kg and a maximum limit of 70 kg.
In contrast, AC 3-Tier and AC Chair Car passengers can carry up to 40 kg, which also serves as the maximum permissible limit.
Indian Railways has clarified that passengers carrying baggage beyond the free allowance but within the prescribed maximum limits will be required to pay applicable excess luggage charges.
Apart from weight restrictions, the Railways also enforces size limits for luggage carried inside passenger coaches.
Trunks, suitcases and boxes measuring up to 100 cm × 60 cm × 25 cm are generally permitted inside compartments.
However, passengers travelling in AC 3-Tier and AC Chair Car coaches must adhere to a smaller size limit of 55 cm × 45 cm × 22.5 cm.
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