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Budget math looks realistic, economic growth to pick up pace: Morgan Stanley

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New Delhi, Feb 3: The Union Budget has managed to meet the goals of boosting consumption though tax cuts, increasing capex through transfers to states, and maintaining the path of fiscal consolidation which is expected to lead to a recovery in the economic growth rate with macro stability in a comfortable range, according to a Morgan Stanley report released on Monday.

The report said that both fiscal and monetary policy are pivoting to support growth, which is in line with “our view of a cyclical recovery in growth”.

“The Budget math looks realistic, with nominal GDP assumed at 10.1 per cent for F2026 and gross tax revenue growth of 10.8 per cent. We will remain watchful of income tax collection growth, which the government expects to be 14.4 per cent, given the income tax cuts and execution of capex spending to meet the targets,” the report stated.

The report pointed out that the Budget has balanced needs to support growth and continue with fiscal consolidation. As such, the Budget targets a lower fiscal deficit of 4.4 per cent of GDP for F2026 even as it reduced income taxes to support consumption, especially for middle income tax payers, and expanded capex growth, mainly through a boost in grants to states for capex creation.

“Indeed, as per the Finance Minister, direct tax changes should lead to a 1.0 per cent revenue loss of Rs 1 lakh crore (0.3 per cent of GDP), which should help support consumption,” the Morgan Stanley report said.

On the spending side, the mix remains tilted to capex, with effective capex (direct capex plus grants in aid of creation of capital assets) seen growing at 17.4 per cent in F2026BE vs. 5.3 per cent of F2025RE.

“We expect the Budget to support growth recovery through measures to promote consumption and increase effective capex spending, which will likely lead to a more broad-based recovery, while at the same time continued consolidation should help macro stability remain in check,” the report observed.

The simultaneous boost to consumption and capex has to be sweet for equities, especially in the context of continuing and better-than-anticipated fiscal consolidation (projected primary deficit: 0.8 per cent).

The plethora of announcements around easing of India’s tax regime, including permanent establishment rules, GIFT city clarifications, extension of exemptions to sovereign funds, and changes to tax deduction and collection at source could improve FDI and private investment sentiment, according to the report.

“A new tax code is coming this week, as per the Budget, which could reveal a more liberal tax environment. We are overweight Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology, and underweight other sectors,” the report added.

Business

Equity markets open flat amid gains in crude oil prices

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New Delhi, Aug 11: Domestic equity markets opened flat on Tuesday after surge in crude oil prices, while information technology and consumer durables stocks gained offset by weakness in banking and financial counters.

Sensex opened 32.67 points or 0.04 per cent lower at 78,509.77, while Nifty started the session declining 8.70 points or 0.04 per cent at 24,575.10.

Sector-wise, Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom rose 0.73 per cent, Nifty Consumer Durables gained 0.66 per cent and Nifty IT advanced 0.63 per cent. Real estate, auto and pharmaceutical shares also traded in positive territory.

On the other hand, banking stocks were under pressure as Nifty Private Bank fell 0.64 per cent and Nifty PSU Bank declined 0.62 per cent.

Market experts said rising crude oil prices remained an irritant for equities, although improving domestic fundamentals, better-than-expected June-quarter earnings and stability in the rupee were providing support.

“Rising Brent crude price continues to be an irritant for the market even as other fundamentals exhibit strength,” they said, adding that foreign institutional investors turning buyers, encouraged by better-than-expected Q1 results and rupee stability, could keep the market resilient with a slight upward bias.

According to analysts, robust domestic consumption could sustain earnings growth through FY27, while large FCNR (B) inflows may support the rupee and, in turn, facilitate further foreign investor inflows.

Foreign investors are also rotating capital away from the so-called ‘chip trade’ in South Korea and Taiwan and compensating for their under-ownership of Indian equities, the experts said.

Interestingly, such flows are being directed towards relatively expensive sectors such as telecom, renewable energy, capital goods and pharmaceuticals rather than attractively valued banking majors, they said.

From a technical perspective, analysts see immediate support for the Nifty in the 24,400-24,450 zone and resistance at 24,750-24,800. Holding above the support zone could keep the index’s sideways-to-positive bias intact, with buying interest likely to emerge on dips. A decisive break above 24,750-24,800 could improve momentum and provide a fresh directional trigger.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 0.41 per cent to $88.08 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.47 per cent to $82.52 a barrel.

Asian markets were mixed in early trade. Japan’s Nikkei rose around 2 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI gained more than 1 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.6 per cent.

US equities ended marginally lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 declining 0.06 per cent and the Nasdaq falling 0.32 per cent.

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Customs duty on gold, silver, platinum tops Rs 10,460 crore since duty hike

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New Delhi : The government has collected Rs 10,463 crore in customs duty from imports of gold, silver and platinum between May 13 and August 2 following the increase in import duties on the precious metals, Parliament was informed on Monday.

In a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said customs duty collections during the period stood at Rs 10,040 crore on gold, Rs 328 crore on silver and Rs 95 crore on platinum.

The combined customs duty collection from the three precious metals thus amounted to Rs 10,463 crore during the period.

With effect from May 13, the government had increased the import duty on gold and silver to 15 per cent from 6 per cent, while the duty on platinum was raised to 15.4 per cent from 6.4 per cent.

Moreover, consequential changes were also made to duties on related items, including gold and silver dore, coins and findings.

Chaudhary said the government had taken the decision to curb discretionary imports and prioritise foreign exchange for essential imports such as crude oil, fertilisers, industrial raw materials and capital goods.

The duty hike came against the backdrop of rising global uncertainties, including the conflict in West Asia and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which had pushed up prices of crude oil as well as food and fertiliser imports.

The minister also informed the House that enforcement agencies seized 161 kg of smuggled gold and arrested 116 persons between May 13 and June 30.

India is the world’s second-largest consumer of gold after China with imports largely driven by demand from the jewellery sector.

Gold imports account for a significant outflow of foreign exchange and are closely monitored by policymakers from a balance-of-payments perspective.

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TRAI mandates 1601-series numbers for service calls from utilities, logistics firms

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New Delhi : The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) on Monday directed telecom operators to begin onboarding entities from select non-financial sectors onto the new 1601-series numbering framework for transactional and service voice calls extending a system already in use by the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) sector.

After this decision, consumers can identify genuine service and transactional calls and curb impersonation and fraud carried out through regular 10-digit mobile numbers.

In addition, TRAI said it has issued directions on the use of the 1601-series numbers for entities in sectors other than BFSI and government organisations which currently use the 1600-series numbering framework.

The authority also noted that the widespread adoption of 1600-series numbers by BFSI entities has provided valuable operational experience for expanding the trusted numbering framework to other sectors.

Under the first phase of implementation, the 1601-series will be allotted to entities in the utilities sector, including electricity distribution companies, water utilities, city gas distribution companies, LPG distributors and other utility service providers.

The logistics and courier sector has also been included in Phase-I, covering courier companies, express logistics firms, parcel delivery service providers as well as freight and logistics operators involved in consignments delivery.

TRAI said the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has allocated the 1601-series for such calls and telecom service providers (TSPs) have been directed to complete migration and onboarding of eligible entities covered under Phase-I within 90 days from the date of the order.

The regulator further noted that 1601-series numbers would be allocated directly to eligible entities rather than intermediaries or aggregators following verification by telecom operators.

“The distinct numbering identity will enable the consumers to easily identify legitimate service and transactional calls, thereby strengthening trust in such voice-based communications,” the regulator said.

Additionally, TRAI clarified that the 1601-series numbers cannot be used for promotional voice calls by any entity.

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