Business
Budget math looks realistic, economic growth to pick up pace: Morgan Stanley
New Delhi, Feb 3: The Union Budget has managed to meet the goals of boosting consumption though tax cuts, increasing capex through transfers to states, and maintaining the path of fiscal consolidation which is expected to lead to a recovery in the economic growth rate with macro stability in a comfortable range, according to a Morgan Stanley report released on Monday.
The report said that both fiscal and monetary policy are pivoting to support growth, which is in line with “our view of a cyclical recovery in growth”.
“The Budget math looks realistic, with nominal GDP assumed at 10.1 per cent for F2026 and gross tax revenue growth of 10.8 per cent. We will remain watchful of income tax collection growth, which the government expects to be 14.4 per cent, given the income tax cuts and execution of capex spending to meet the targets,” the report stated.
The report pointed out that the Budget has balanced needs to support growth and continue with fiscal consolidation. As such, the Budget targets a lower fiscal deficit of 4.4 per cent of GDP for F2026 even as it reduced income taxes to support consumption, especially for middle income tax payers, and expanded capex growth, mainly through a boost in grants to states for capex creation.
“Indeed, as per the Finance Minister, direct tax changes should lead to a 1.0 per cent revenue loss of Rs 1 lakh crore (0.3 per cent of GDP), which should help support consumption,” the Morgan Stanley report said.
On the spending side, the mix remains tilted to capex, with effective capex (direct capex plus grants in aid of creation of capital assets) seen growing at 17.4 per cent in F2026BE vs. 5.3 per cent of F2025RE.
“We expect the Budget to support growth recovery through measures to promote consumption and increase effective capex spending, which will likely lead to a more broad-based recovery, while at the same time continued consolidation should help macro stability remain in check,” the report observed.
The simultaneous boost to consumption and capex has to be sweet for equities, especially in the context of continuing and better-than-anticipated fiscal consolidation (projected primary deficit: 0.8 per cent).
The plethora of announcements around easing of India’s tax regime, including permanent establishment rules, GIFT city clarifications, extension of exemptions to sovereign funds, and changes to tax deduction and collection at source could improve FDI and private investment sentiment, according to the report.
“A new tax code is coming this week, as per the Budget, which could reveal a more liberal tax environment. We are overweight Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology, and underweight other sectors,” the report added.
Business
Markets open lower amid weak global cues, rising crude oil prices

Mumbai, July 20: Domestic equity markets opened lower on Monday, tracking weak global cues and spike in crude oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East kept investors cautious.
Sensex fell over 500 points or 0.7 per cent to an intraday low of 77,591 in early trade, while Nifty started the session 144 points or 0.6 per cent lower at 24,190.05.
Sectorally, selling pressure was concentrated in financial stocks, with Nifty Private Bank index dropping more than 2 per cent, followed by the Nifty Realty index, which slipped over 1 per cent.
In contrast, the Nifty PSU Bank index gained around 1 per cent, while the Nifty Pharma, Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Metal and Nifty Oil & Gas indices traded in positive territory.
Among Nifty constituents, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndiGo and Shriram Finance emerged as the top losers in early trade.
According to market experts, despite the weak global backdrop, the domestic market’s technical structure remains resilient, and any decline is likely to attract buying at lower levels. They said the derivatives setup continues to support a bullish undertone, with the Nifty expected to find immediate support around the 24,100 level, while 24,500 is likely to act as the key resistance.
Meanwhile, international oil prices surged after the Middle East conflict escalated further over the weekend, with the United States and Iran exchanging fresh attacks.
Brent crude rose nearly 3 per cent to approach the $90-a-barrel mark, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained more than 3 per cent to $85.39 a barrel.
Tehran said the ceasefire between the two countries had effectively collapsed, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies through one of the world’s busiest shipping routes.
Asian markets traded mixed. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi tumbled more than 4 per cent each, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained around 2 per cent. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite and China’s Shanghai Composite also rose by up to 1 per cent.
Business
Q1 earnings, US-Iran tensions likely to drive Dalal Street next week

Mumbai, July 19: The Indian equity market is expected to remain driven by domestic earnings and global developments in the coming week after the benchmark indices ended higher, extending their recovery amid concerns over geopolitical risks, elevated oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the global interest rate outlook.
The Nifty gained around 0.53 per cent during the week to close at 24,334.30, while the Sensex advanced nearly 0.75 per cent to settle at 78,151.45.
The resilience in the market came despite persistent foreign fund outflows and heightened tensions in the Middle East.
Investors’ primary focus will be on the June quarter (Q1 FY27) earnings season, which gathers pace in the third week with more than 250 companies scheduled to announce their financial results.
Corporate commentary on demand trends, margins, capital expenditure and future growth outlook is expected to play a key role in shaping market sentiment and stock-specific movements.
Global geopolitical developments are also likely to remain in focus after the United States carried out fresh strikes on Iran.
The US Central Command said the operation followed an earlier Iranian attack in Jordan that killed two American military personnel, while another service member remains missing.
Crude oil prices will be another key monitorable for investors. Oil prices jumped more than 4 per cent on Friday to their highest level in over a month as the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran raised concerns about possible supply disruptions in the Gulf region.
Institutional investment flows will also remain under scrutiny. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) extended their selling streak for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, recording a provisional net outflow of Rs 376.41 crore. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to support the market, remaining net buyers for the eighth straight session with provisional purchases worth Rs 1,017.89 crore.
Exchange data showed that DIIs bought equities worth Rs 17,180.08 crore and sold shares worth Rs 16,162.19 crore during the session.
Meanwhile, FIIs purchased equities worth Rs 14,393.77 crore but sold shares worth Rs 14,770.18 crore, resulting in a provisional net outflow of Rs 376.41 crore.
Business
MCX gold may test Rs 1.39 lakh support, silver outlook remains weak amid global uncertainty: Analysts

Mumbai, July 18: MCX Gold and Silver are expected to remain volatile in the near term as investors assess geopolitical developments in the Middle East, movements in crude oil prices, and the US Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, according to market analysts.
Analysts said MCX Gold ended the week on a negative note but managed to stabilise around the key psychological support level of Rs 1,40,000.
They believe a decisive break below this level could accelerate selling pressure and drag prices towards the Rs 1,39,300-Rs 1,38,700 support zone.
“MCX Gold ended the week on a negative note but managed to find support near Rs 1,40,000 and is attempting to stabilise above this key level. A decisive break below Rs 1,40,000 could extend the decline toward the Rs 1,39,300–Rs 1,38,700 support zone,” as per the market expert.
“On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at Rs 1,40,700–Rs 1,41,000, followed by Rs 1,42,000–Rs 1,42,700. A sustained move above these resistance zones could strengthen recovery momentum,” an analyst stated.
MCX Silver also ended the week with a cautious negative bias, continuing to trade below key resistance levels.
Analysts expect resistance in the Rs 2,17,000-Rs 2,18,000 range, followed by Rs 2,20,000-Rs 2,21,000.
“On the downside, Rs 2,15,000–Rs 2,14,000 remains the immediate support zone, while a break below this area could drag prices toward Rs 2,11,000–Rs 2,10,000,” a market expert mentioned.
“Overall, the broader trend remains weak, with sustained strength above key resistance levels needed to signal a meaningful recovery,” the analyst stated.
Globally, COMEX Gold also finished the week with a negative bias while attempting to hold above the important $4,000 support level.
Analysts said a break below this mark could trigger fresh selling towards the $3,920-$3,900 zone, whereas a recovery above $4,050-$4,070 could lift prices towards $4,120-$4,150.
COMEX Silver remained under pressure as well, with prices trying to sustain above the $55-$54.50 support area.
Analysts noted that a decisive break below this range could lead to further weakness towards $53, while a move above $56.50-$57 could improve sentiment and potentially drive prices towards $59.
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