Business
Budget math looks realistic, economic growth to pick up pace: Morgan Stanley
New Delhi, Feb 3: The Union Budget has managed to meet the goals of boosting consumption though tax cuts, increasing capex through transfers to states, and maintaining the path of fiscal consolidation which is expected to lead to a recovery in the economic growth rate with macro stability in a comfortable range, according to a Morgan Stanley report released on Monday.
The report said that both fiscal and monetary policy are pivoting to support growth, which is in line with “our view of a cyclical recovery in growth”.
“The Budget math looks realistic, with nominal GDP assumed at 10.1 per cent for F2026 and gross tax revenue growth of 10.8 per cent. We will remain watchful of income tax collection growth, which the government expects to be 14.4 per cent, given the income tax cuts and execution of capex spending to meet the targets,” the report stated.
The report pointed out that the Budget has balanced needs to support growth and continue with fiscal consolidation. As such, the Budget targets a lower fiscal deficit of 4.4 per cent of GDP for F2026 even as it reduced income taxes to support consumption, especially for middle income tax payers, and expanded capex growth, mainly through a boost in grants to states for capex creation.
“Indeed, as per the Finance Minister, direct tax changes should lead to a 1.0 per cent revenue loss of Rs 1 lakh crore (0.3 per cent of GDP), which should help support consumption,” the Morgan Stanley report said.
On the spending side, the mix remains tilted to capex, with effective capex (direct capex plus grants in aid of creation of capital assets) seen growing at 17.4 per cent in F2026BE vs. 5.3 per cent of F2025RE.
“We expect the Budget to support growth recovery through measures to promote consumption and increase effective capex spending, which will likely lead to a more broad-based recovery, while at the same time continued consolidation should help macro stability remain in check,” the report observed.
The simultaneous boost to consumption and capex has to be sweet for equities, especially in the context of continuing and better-than-anticipated fiscal consolidation (projected primary deficit: 0.8 per cent).
The plethora of announcements around easing of India’s tax regime, including permanent establishment rules, GIFT city clarifications, extension of exemptions to sovereign funds, and changes to tax deduction and collection at source could improve FDI and private investment sentiment, according to the report.
“A new tax code is coming this week, as per the Budget, which could reveal a more liberal tax environment. We are overweight Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology, and underweight other sectors,” the report added.
Business
BMC Budget 2025-26: Mumbai Civic Body Set To Present Budget On Feb 4; Take A Look At Key Expectations
Mumbai: The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is set to unveil its Budget Estimates for 2025-26 on Tuesday, February 4, at 11:00 am in the municipal headquarters’ assembly hall. The budget presentation will begin with the Additional Municipal Commissioner (Eastern Suburbs), Dr Amit Saini, outlining the Education Department’s financial plan to Municipal Administrator Bhushan Gagrani. Following this, Additional Municipal Commissioner (Projects), Abhijit Bangar, will present the overall budget estimates to Gagrani.
Key Infrastructure Projects To Likely Get Good Funds
This will be the third consecutive budget since BMC’s elected general body was dissolved in March 2022, with Gagrani continuing to oversee civic operations. The upcoming budget is expected to prioritise major infrastructure projects, particularly the Mumbai Coastal Road (Phase 2), connecting Versova to Dahisar and the Goregaon-Mulund Link Road (GMLR), as they near completion. Civic officials anticipate substantial allocations to these projects, emphasizing their role in transforming the city’s connectivity.
A key focus of the budget will be the ongoing construction of seven Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs) in Mumbai, a massive initiative costing Rs 30,000 crore. These STPs are critical to improving wastewater management and addressing environmental concerns in the city.
Key Takeaways From Budget 2024-25
Looking back at the 2024-25 budget, BMC refrained from introducing new taxes while presenting a record-high allocation of Rs 59,954.75 crore. It earmarked major funds for major projects, including a Rs 1,200 crore provision for free medicines in civic hospitals.
The health sector saw a notable budget increase, from Rs 6,309 crore in 2023-24 to Rs 7,191 crore in 2024-25, reflecting the corporation’s focus on public healthcare. Other allocations included Rs 340 crore for footpath, lane and bylane upgrades and Rs 100 crore towards enhancing women’s security in the city.
Hopes High From This Year’s Budget
For the 2025-26 budget, civic authorities sought public feedback, receiving around 2,700 responses. Many of these submissions highlighted concerns about the deteriorating quality of BEST bus services, indicating possible budgetary attention to public transport improvements.
With expectations high, the upcoming BMC budget will likely continue its emphasis on large-scale infrastructure projects, healthcare and citizen-focused initiatives, shaping Mumbai’s urban development in the coming year.
Business
Govt likely to introduce new income tax bill on Feb 6
New Delhi, Feb 3: After the revision in tax slabs in the Union Budget 2025-26 to leave ‘enough money in the hands’ of taxpayers, the government is likely to unveil the much-anticipated draft of the new Income Tax Bill on February 6.
The proposed bill aims to bring sweeping reforms to the current Income Tax Act and could potentially see up to 3 lakh words slashed from the near 6 lakh words at present.
Citing people in the know, the draft bill is likely to provide directions to widen the tax net, given the contraction in the tax base following the new exemption limits.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in her post-Budget press conference, said about 1 crore taxpayers will be directly benefitted from the extended rebates and exemptions, under the New Tax regime.
One crore people will benefit due to the increased tax exemption limit from Rs 7 lakh to Rs 12 lakh. They will have to pay no income tax, she mentioned.
As per the new slabs, proposed in Budget 2025-26, those with an income of up to Rs 12 lakh will have to pay no income tax, marking a decisive change in the tax structure.
Drawing a comparison between the prevailing tax rates and the proposed new ones in FY25-26, she said that those who are earning Rs 8 lakh will have Rs 30,000 more money into their pockets because their tax liability has been brought to zero.
There will be no income tax payable up to income of Rs 12 lakh (average income of Rs 1 lakh per month other than special rate income such as capital gains) under the new regime. This limit will be Rs 12.75 lakh for salaried taxpayers, due to the standard deduction of Rs 75,000.
Tax rebate is being provided in addition to the benefit due to slab rate reduction in such a manner that there is no tax payable by them. The maximum rebate available is Rs 60,000 which is there for a taxpayer having income of Rs 12 lakh on which tax is payable as per the new slabs.
Business
Budget 205-26: FDI limit for insurance sector raised to 100 per cent
New Delhi, Feb 1: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced an increase in the FDI limit for the insurance sector from 74 per cent to 100 per cent in the Budget for 2025-26 as part of far-reaching reforms in the financial sector.
This enhanced limit will be available for those companies which invest the entire premium in India. The current guardrails and conditionalities associated with foreign investment will be reviewed and simplified, the Finance Minister said.
Budget 2025-26 aims to initiate transformative reforms across six domains which will augment our growth potential and global competitiveness during the next five years, she while presenting the Budget in Parliament.
One of these domains is the financial sector which encompasses sectors like insurance, pensions, bilateral investment treaties (BIT) and so forth, she said.
A forum for regulatory coordination and development of pension products will be set up, the Finance Minister stated.
Besides, to implement the earlier announcement on simplifying the KYC process, the revamped Central KYC Registry will be rolled out in 2025. A streamlined system for periodic updating will also be implemented, she added.
The Finance Minister also said that requirements and procedures for speedy approval of company mergers will be rationalised. The scope for fast-track mergers will also be widened and the process will be made simpler.
The FDI reforms assume significance as India has emerged as a hot investment destination with multinational giants such as Apple and Tesla looking for alternative supply chains after the US sanctions against China.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently said that the Indian automobile sector had attracted more than $36 billion in FDI over the last four years and this figure would go up several times in the coming years as he exhorted vehicle manufacturers to follow the mantra of ‘Make in India and Make for the World.’
Inaugurated the Bharat Mobility Global Expo 2025 at Bharat Mandapam in the national capital, the Prime Minister said that India presented a huge opportunity and is an ideal destination for investors. The government was paving the way for global investors to bring more FDI into the automobile sector which was technology and innovation-driven, he pointed out.
Sectors such as electronics have attracted major investments with the semiconductor units also coming up in the country for the first time.
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