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BJP set to win 8 of 11 Rajya Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh

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With the Election Commission announcing the notification for the 57 seats of Rajya Sabha (RS) biennial elections slated to be held on June 10, the spotlight has turned to Uttar Pradesh which will be sending 11 members to the Upper House.

However, unlike previous Rajya Sabha elections, this time the contest is restricted to the ruling BJP and the opposition SP, while the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party have been relegated to non-players because of their miniscule presence in the state Assembly.

Of the total 403 MLAs in the state Assembly, BJP and its alliance partners, including Apna Dal (S) and Nishad Party, have 273 in Vidhan Sabha.

The SP, along with alliance partners like Rashtriya Lok Dal and Om Prakash Rajbhar-led Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), has 125 seats.

Besides, the Congress has two seats, Raja Bhaiyya-led Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik) two and the Bahujan Samaj Party has one seat.

As per the numbers, the BJP is in a position to win at least eight RS seats, while the SP would stake claim to at least three seats.

For both BJP and SP camp, there are five floating votes of BSP, Jansatta Dal and Congress.

Of these, the BSP and Jansatta Dal are likely to go with BJP.

A candidate will need 37.63 votes for one seat. This means the BJP will require 298.64 votes to win eight seats, around 26 additional votes as it has 273 votes.

So, the second preference vote will also come into play.

Similarly, the SP will require 111. 99 votes for three seats which means that the party can get three seats without much support from alliance partners.

However, this will depend much on how disgruntled SP MLAs like Shivpal Yadav, Azam Khan and his son Abdullah Azam Khan will vote.

Sources said that Azam Khan might ask for his wife Tanzeem Fatima’s seat in Rajya Sabha to put pressure on Akhilesh Yadav.

According to political observers, as these MLAs have strained ties with SP chief Akhilesh Yadav.

Meanwhile, cross-voting in RS cannot be ruled out because the voting in RS poll is a closed one, while for council seats, it is open. The voters need to show their vote before casting it in the council elections.

Sources said that the SP alliance partners, especially RLD’s Jayant Chaudhary, might also put pressure on Akhilesh and demand at least one RS seat.

Similarly, Om Prakash Rajbhar’s move would also be closely watched especially after reports of his hobnobbing with BJP leaders post assembly elections results.

Some of the big names in politics who are retiring form Rajya Sabha include BJP’s Shiv Pratap Shukla, Hari Om Yadav, Surendra Singh Nagar, Sanjay Seth, Jai Prakash Nishad and Zafar Islam.

SP’s Vishambhar Prasad Nishad, Sukhram Singh Yadav and Reoti Raman Singh are also retiring from RS.

BSP’s Satish Mishra is among those who are retiring and all eyes are on how he manages to re-enter the upper house.

Maharashtra

Ex-NCB Officer Sameer Wankhede Moves Bombay HC Seeking CBI Probe Against NCP Leader Nawab Malik

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Ex-NCB Officer Sameer Wankhede Moves Bombay HC Seeking CBI Probe Against NCP Leader Nawab Malik

Mumbai: IRS officer Sameer Wankhede has moved the Bombay High Court, seeking a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) or court-monitored probe into an FIR he filed in 2022 against former state minister and NCP leader Nawab Malik under the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. Wankhede, an Additional Commissioner in the Directorate General of Taxpayer Services (DGTS) and a member of the Mahar Scheduled Caste, alleges that the police’s inaction in the matter has caused him and his family significant mental distress and humiliation.

On August 14, 2022, Wankhede filed an FIR with the Goregaon police station against Malik. Malik has neither been arrested in the case, nor has the chargesheet been filed in the case till date. 

Former NCB zonal officer, who shot to fame after arresting actor Shah Rukh Khan son, Aryan Khan, in the 2021 Cordelia Cruise drug bust case, had also arrested Malik’s son-in-law Sameer Khan. 

Wankhede has alleged that after Sameer Khan’s arrest, Malik launched a sustained campaign to defame and humiliate him and his family on social media and television, targeting their caste and questioning the authenticity of Wankhede’s caste certificate. 

The officer had earlier filed a complaint with the Scheduled Caste Commission in October 2021, seeking action against Malik. 

Despite a restraining order issued by the High Court in a separate defamation suit prohibiting Malik from making defamatory remarks, Wankhede claims Malik continued to violate the order, including questioning the validity of his caste certificate as recently as on October 27, 2024. 

A caste scrutiny committee has since upheld the authenticity of Wankhede’s certificate in a detailed 91-page report.

Malik Influenced State Police To Delay Probe: Sameer Wankhede

Wankhede alleges that Malik has influenced the state police to delay the investigation. He points out that critical provisions under the SC/ST Act have yet to be added to the FIR despite multiple reminders to the Goregaon police. “Respondent No. 2 (Malik), with his muscle power, influence and money power is controlling the state police machinery and continues to commit further offence, this can be overtly witnessed as how the Accused (Malik) is openly giving interviews to various media platforms and us wandering freely and yet no arrest is affected despite being no protective order,” the petition, filed through advocate Sana Khan,  read.

Wankhede seeks the court’s direction to transfer the investigation to an independent agency or the CBI, ensure the addition of necessary provisions under the SC/ST Act, and order the submission of a detailed report on the investigation’s progress.

Wankhede has also highlighted a similar FIR filed by his cousin, Sanjay Wankhede, which has faced the same lack of action. He contends Malik’s actions are politically motivated, aimed at influencing voters before elections.

The petition is likely to come up for hearing on November 28. 

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Maharashtra

Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Mumbai Sees Marginal Rise In Voter Turnout, Suburbs Lead At 56.39%, City At 52.65%

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The voter turnout figures released on Thursday by the BMC indicated a low turnout in the city during the November 20 assembly election. In Mumbai city district, voter participation stood at 52.65%, while the suburban district saw a slightly higher turnout of 56.39%; both figures are marginally higher than 2019.

In Mumbai city, which covers 10 constituencies, there are a total of 25,43,610 registered voters. Of these, 13,39,299 cast their ballots. The male voter turnout was 52%, with 7,10,174 out of 13,65,904 male voters participating. Female voters turnout was lower at 53%, with 6,29,049 women out of 11,77,462 voting. Additionally, 76 voters from the “other” category cast their ballots out of 244 eligible voters.

The lowest voter turnout in Mumbai city was recorded in Colaba, with just 44.44%. Other areas with low turnout included Mumbadevi (48.76%), Dharavi (50.03%), Malabar Hill (52.53%), and Byculla (53.02%). In contrast, Mahim saw the highest voter participation at 59.01%, followed by Wadala (57.67%), Shivadi (55.52%), Sion Koliwada (53.56%), and Worli (53.53%).

In Mumbai suburban, which encompasses 26 constituencies, the voter turnout reached 56.39%. There are 76,86,098 registered voters in this district, with 43,34,513 casting their votes. Among male voters, 57% participated 23,58,589 out of 41,01,457, while 57% of female voters also voted 20,33,654 out of 35,83,803. Additionally, 270 people from the ‘other’ category voted out of 838 eligible individuals.

The lowest voter turnout in the suburban district was seen in constituencies such as Vandre West (51.36%), Versova (51.44%), Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar (52.14%), Kalina (52.68%), and Chandivali (52.97%). On the other hand, the highest turnout was recorded in constituencies like Bhandup West (62.88%), Borivali (62.32%), Mulund (61.42%), Ghatkopar West (59.99%), and Ghatkopar East (59.58%).

Several constituencies in Mumbai witnessed a significant rise in voter participation compared to the 2019 assembly elections. In Andheri West, the voting percentage jumped from 43.52% in 2019 to 53.67% in 2024; a rise of over 10%. Versova’s turnout rose from 42.38% in 2019 to 51.44% this year, while Mulund saw an increase from 53.81% to 61.42%. Vandre West’s turnout also grew substantially from 44% to 51.36%, with a similar trend in Goregaon (from 46.44% in 2019 to 55.61% this year) and Shivadi’s 49.33% in 2019 to 55% in 2024.

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Maharashtra

Maharashtra Elections 2024: Dy CM Devendra Fadnavis Likely To Claim CM’s Post If Mahayuti Forms Govt Again

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Maharashtra Elections 2024: Dy CM Devendra Fadnavis Likely To Claim CM's Post If Mahayuti Forms Govt Again

With most of the exit polls predicting a majority for the Mahayuti led by the BJP, the saffron party is preparing to occupy a central position post the results which will be declared on Saturday. The main question is who will be the BJP’s candidate for chief ministership. The party had assiduously avoided projecting anyone as the CM candidate and has preferred to wait for the results to be declared. However, considerable significance is assigned to Fadnavis’ meeting with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat at the Sangh’s headquarters in Mahal, Nagpur, on Thursday.  Officially it is being said Fadnavis called on Bhagwat to thank for the massive voter mobilisation that the Sangh Parivar did during the assembly poll of November 20. 

Sources in the BJP told that in June, 2022 the party made a big blunder in agreeing to have Eknath Shinde, the rebel Shiv Sena leader, as the CM. Fadnavis (54) had played a crucial role behind the scenes in vertically splitting the Shiv Sena and pulling down the Uddhav Thackeray government. He staged a coup right under the nose of Thackeray by weaning  away Shinde and his pack of 36 MLAs away from Uddhav Thackeray.  For all his efforts, it was widely assumed in BJP circles that Fadnavis would be rewarded with the CM’s post, especially since the party had the maximum number of MLAs at 105.  

However, the cadres and Fadnavis himself was stunned when the BJP high command wanted Shinde to be the CM.  In fact, Fadnavis publicly made his disappointment public by asserting that he was not interested in joining the Shinde-led government. It required a lot of cajoling from PM Modi and home minister Amit Shah to get him to work under Shinde. 

The central leadership’s calculation was that by anointing Shinde as the CM the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray would be politically emaciated. However, the past two years’ experience has proved the BJP central leaderships’ calculations wrong. The Shiv Sena (UBT) is not only strong but in fact put up a rather impressive performance in the Lok Sabha elections early this year at the cost of the BJP.

Several persons in the BJP are saying, in retrospect, that had Fadnavis been made the CM after the eclipse of the MVA government led by Thackeray the party would have politically become stronger and done well in the LS polls. “We hope that the central leadership of our party will learn a lesson from the mistakes committed by it in the past and this time around recommend Fadnavis for the CM’s post. He has already served as CM from 2014 to 2019 and acquitted himself well as a good administrator,” a senior BJP leader observed.

There are a few other contenders for the CM’s post like Pankaja Munde, Chandrakant Patil and Vinod Tawde. But none of them have the political stature of Fadnavis who is keen on working only in Maharashtra. The only minus point is that he belongs to the Brahmin caste which is traditionally distrusted by the Marathas. But then it was Fadnavis who took the initiative to pass a law providing for reservation for Marathas. 

All these calculations are based on the surmise that the psephologists have got it right this time around vis-a-vis the assembly poll outcome. Also, the increase in voting percentage is expected to help the BJP.  However, the BJP has kept a Plan B ready lest its calculations go awry. The party is not averse to taking the help of Sharad Pawar if the Mahayuti falls short of numbers.  The Central government has already put tremendous pressure on Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule in the Rs 250 cr bitcoin case. It might politically weaponise the case to make Pawar fall in line. It may even agree to accommodate Supriya as the deputy CM.

It may be recalled that Pawar, for all his secular posturings, has as early as 1978 joined hands with the Janata Party (of which the major component was the Bharatiya Jana Sangh) to become the CM. More recently, he was part of the plot to let his nephew Ajit Pawar join hands with the BJP to form a government in November, 2019. Also, industrialist Gautam Adani is a common link between Pawar Sr and the BJP. 

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