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Asian markets tumble to 15 month lows, Fed expected to raise interest rates 6 times this year

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Stock markets in Asia have tumbled to their lowest in nearly 15 months after Americ’s central bank chief confirmed widely expected plans to increase interest rates this year, beginning in March, The Guardian reported.

With investors also concerned about political tensions between Russia and Ukraine, supply chain problems and rising oil prices, the prospect of sustained increases in the cost of borrowing by the world’s most powerful economy sent a spasm of anxiety through financial markets on Thursday.

Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas Markets 360, now expects the Fed to raise interest rates six times this year, after last night’s hawkish comments from Jerome Powell.

“We read Fed Chair Powell’s comment that this cycle is different from the previous one as an indication that the Fed’s bias is for a steeper tightening than the markets and we had envisaged. We have moved our call for this year to six 25bp hikes from four previously and now expect the fed funds target range at 2.25-2.50 per cent at end-2023, 25bp higher than we had previously forecast. Our new base case for six hikes this year poses challenges to our bullish outlook for US equities. However, it is not sufficient to derail it on a standalone basis if earnings growth remains strong, in our view”, The Guardian reported.

Last month, the Fed’s officials predicted they would increase rates three times in 2022, while the markets had been pricing in four increases.

“The Fed’s gone from being the market’s best friend, to a possible enemy,” said Kyle Rodda, analyst at the online trading platform IG in Sydney, adding that the Fed was set on “bringing inflation down, rather than protecting asset prices”, the report said.

The Nikkei in Japan led the way as it plunged more than 3 per cent while the Kospi in Seoul found itself in similarly negative territory. The market in Hong Kong was off 2.5 per cent and Sydney shed nearly 2 per cent.

MSCI’s broad gauge of regional markets outside Japan fell more than 2 per cent to its lowest level since November 2020.

The FTSE100 is set to fall nearly 2 per cent when it opens on Thursday morning, according to futures trade, with the Wall Street markets also heading for a hefty loss.

Mike Kelly, head of global multi-asset at PineBridge Investments in the US, said it was a sign to “get the heck out” of US stocks. “It’s all about selling longer duration assets,” he said, “so we are underexposed to US equities”, the report said.

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Govt proposes new fuel economy norms for cars from April 1, 2027

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New Delhi, July 16: The Ministry of Power on Thursday circulated the draft Corporate Average Fuel Economy 2027 Norms (CAFE-III) for stakeholder consultation, which propose a fresh five-year fuel efficiency regime for passenger vehicles, beginning from April 1, 2027.

The draft norms apply to M1 category vehicles, a classification that covers passenger cars carrying up to eight people besides the driver, which includes all hatchbacks, sedans and SUVs sold for personal use. The category excludes commercial goods carriers and buses, according to an official statement.

The existing CAFE-II norms are likely to lapse on March 31, 2027. Compliance under CAFE-III will be assessed in two phases, the first covering three years and the second the remaining two, with fuel efficiency targets progressing to more stringent levels through each passing year.

The framework, overseen by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency under the Ministry of Power, aims to bring down average fleet emissions from current levels to a significantly lower threshold by FY32, according to earlier drafts reported in the media.

Compliance credits have been priced at Rs 2,500 each, rising by Rs 500 every year through the period, with unused credits expiring once the compliance period ends. Automakers that fail to meet targets could face penalties, though the detailed amounts have not been mentioned. Manufacturers selling fewer than 1,000 vehicles annually will remain exempt.

Industry has differed in its response to earlier versions of the draft. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has backed the proposal as balanced, while some carmakers have pushed for relief on small petrol cars and others have opposed differentiated treatment for that segment.

The ministry has invited suggestions from stakeholders and the public. Feedback can be sent to the Under Secretary, Energy Conservation, at the ministry’s New Delhi office, or can be emailed.

The last date for submissions is August 6, 2026. The draft norms will also be uploaded on the websites of the Ministry of Power and the Bureau of Energy Efficiency shortly, the statement said.

M1 vehicles are subject to stringent fuel efficiency and emission targets under Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) norms, which are regularly updated to reduce greenhouse gases.

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Govt hikes windfall duty on diesel, ATF exports

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New Delhi, July 16: The Centre has raised windfall taxes on exports of diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) while lowering the levy on petrol exports, as surging global oil prices driven by the escalating US-Iran conflict boosted refining margins, with the revised rates taking effect from Thursday.

According to a Finance Ministry notification, the export duty on diesel has been increased to Rs 15.5 per litre from Rs 8.5 per litre, while the levy on aviation turbine fuel has been raised to Rs 14.5 per litre from Rs 7.5 per litre.

At the same time, the government has reduced the export duty on petrol to Rs 2.5 per litre from Rs 4 per litre.

The revised rates came into effect from July 16, according to the notification.

The latest revision comes amid a sharp rise in global crude oil prices following an escalation in hostilities between the United States and Iran.

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday before easing slightly after US President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports, prompting Iran to launch retaliatory strikes on US infrastructure in the region.

Earlier this month, the government had revised the windfall tax on exports of petroleum products by raising the levy on petrol while reducing the duties on diesel and aviation turbine fuel.

The Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) on petrol exports was increased to Rs 4 per litre from Rs 1.5 per litre. At the same time, the export duty on diesel was reduced to Rs 8.5 per litre from Rs 14 per litre, while the levy on ATF exports was cut to Rs 7.5 per litre from Rs 12.5 per litre.

The government reviews windfall taxes on domestically produced crude oil and exports of petroleum products at regular intervals to align the levies with changes in international crude prices and refining margins.

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Sensex, Nifty trade higher led by consumer durables and IT stocks

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Mumbai, July 16: Indian equity benchmark indices traded higher in the morning session on Thursday despite mixed global cues.

Sensex jumped over 300 points or 0.42 per cent to hit an intraday high of 77,514.30 in early trade, while Nifty rose 88 points or 0.36 per cent to 24,167 amid buying in consumer durables, IT and auto stocks.

Nifty Consumer Durables index surged 1.63 per cent, followed by Nifty IT, which gained 1.38 per cent, Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom, up 1.13 per cent, and Nifty Auto, which advanced 0.72 per cent.

On the downside, financial stocks remained under pressure, with the Nifty MidSmall Financial Services index falling 1 per cent and Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank declining 0.88 per cent. Nifty Realty, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Private Bank indices also traded lower.

SBI Life, HDFC Life, ONGC, Axis Bank, BEL, Max Healthcare Institute, Grasim Industries and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise were among the top laggards on the Nifty.

Analysts said the market is likely to trade in a narrow range with a positive bias as crude oil prices remain broadly steady and global markets stabilise.

Investors will closely track the June quarter earnings season, with banks and NBFCs expected to post healthy numbers backed by robust credit growth, according to them.

They further noted that automobile companies are also likely to remain in focus amid expectations of strong quarterly growth, supported by GST cuts and easier availability of finance, while profitable digital platform companies could continue to attract investor interest.

Meanwhile, Brent crude rose 0.71 per cent to around $85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.24 per cent to $80.59 a barrel.

Among Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei traded over 2 per cent lower and South Korea’s KOSPI declined around 6 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained about 2 per cent.

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