Mumbai: Maharashtra’s political stage is once again pulsating with anticipation. Within the next 48 hours, either Devendra Fadnavis or Eknath Shinde is expected to take the oath of office. However, there are several imponderables. While the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) will nominate Fadnavis with eyes shut, Shinde’s claim is buttressed by his remarkable electoral success and coalition dynamics, it gets further reinforced by the caste factor.

The RSS Factor

Fadnavis, a staunch RSS loyalist and the BJP’s golden boy from Nagpur, is the obvious frontrunner. Known for his administrative acumen and clean image, he aligns perfectly with the Sangh’s ideology. For the RSS, Fadnavis symbolizes continuity and trust—qualities vital for navigating Maharashtra’s volatile political terrain. Yet, his path to the CM’s chair isn’t obstacle-free.

The BJP leadership fears that appointing a Brahmin Chief Minister might alienate the electorally critical OBC and Maratha communities. Moreover, sidelining Eknath Shinde could be precarious for the coalition and undo the effort to dismantle Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena.

Stubborn Shinde

Eknath Shinde, who has helmed the government for the past two years, remains unwilling to cede power. His camp credits the alliance’s electoral success to initiatives like the “Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin” scheme. Supporters argue that Shinde deserves to retain the top job, with Deepak Kesarkar emphatically stating, “This election was fought under Shinde’s leadership—he deserves the chair.”

A recent rally at Varsha Bungalow saw workers chanting Shinde’s name, almost egging him to hold his nerve and ground. For the BJP, alienating Shinde could create unnecessary irritants, which could put in jeopardy the crucial BMC trophy – Maharashtra’s Crown Jewel.

BMC Trophy

The BMC elections are the hidden undercurrent driving this power struggle. With an annual budget exceeding Rs 59,000 crore, control of the civic body is a political and financial lifeline. Wresting it from UBT Sena is a top priority for the BJP. Shinde’s understanding of the workings of UBT Sena and his faction’s stronghold in Mumbai — bolstered by his Maratha identity — could be invaluable in achieving this goal. Retaining Shinde as CM, at least temporarily, might be a calculated move to wrest control of the BMC. However, this strategy is fraught with risks. Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction reportedly finds Fadnavis a more dependable ally, hinting at potential strains within the alliance if Shinde remains at the helm.

A Complex Balancing Act

Balancing Act For the BJP, the choice isn’t just about naming the next Chief Minister. It’s a complex balancing act—appeasing the RSS, retaining Shinde’s loyalty, maintaining coalition harmony, and addressing caste dynamics. Both Shinde and Fadnavis have reportedly been summoned to Delhi for final consultations with Amit Shah and the BJP leadership. Changing the CM now could help showcase the BJP as a decisive, meritocratic party. But it risks undermining its image as a reliable coalition partner. With the BMC elections on the horizon, any perception of instability could prove politically costly.

Road Ahead the BJP faces a pivotal decision: prioritize long-term stability and ideological alignment with Fadnavis, or opt for short-term pragmatism by keeping Shinde in power. The RSS’s preference for Fadnavis might tip the scales, but sidelining Shinde could backfire. A potential compromise—keeping Shinde as CM while giving Fadnavis a stronger behind-thescenes role—could provide a temporary resolution. However, such a formula would require meticulous management to avoid factional rifts.

Final Countdown As the swearing-in approaches, the suspense remains pulsating. In a state where caste, coalition politics, and civic ambitions intersect, the identity of the next Chief Minister is far from a foregone conclusion. Whether it’s Fadnavis, the Sangh’s favorite, or Shinde, the Maratha tactician, Maharashtra is poised for another dramatic twist. One thing is certain: in this game of thrones, “lock kiya jaye” won’t come easy.

Ajaz Khan, the Bigg Boss fame actor-turned-politician, suffered an embarrassing defeat in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, where he polled just 155 from the Versova constituency. Remarkably, even the NOTA (None of the Above) option has outperformed him, securing 1,298 votes.

Fielded by Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), Ajaz Khan failed to translate his social media popularity – a staggering 5.6 million Instagram followers – into votes.

His political debut at the state level appears to have fallen flat, much like his earlier foray into the Lok Sabha elections. Khan had contested from the Mumbai North Central seat during the general elections but failed to make an impact there as well.

The Versova constituency, meanwhile, witnessed a fierce contest between Haroon Khan of the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Bharati Lavekar of the BJP. Haroon Khan, however, won the seat with a margin of over 1,600 votes.

While Ajaz Khan has struggled to breach even the 150-vote mark, the Mahayuti alliance is surging towards a dominant victory across the state, projected to win over 221 seats. In contrast, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, appears headed for a humiliating defeat.

In a statement to the media, Shinde said, “I thank the voters of Maharashtra. This is a landslide victory. I had said before that Mahayuti will get a thumping victory. I thank all sections of the society. I thank my ladali behnas and kisans. I also thank all the workers of the Mahayuti parties. “

Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to hold the Maharashtra Legislative Party meeting on November 25 and the oath-taking ceremony on 26,

A larger meeting of the Yuti alliance is also likely to be held around the same time. 

This comes after the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra crossed the crucial majority mark, as per the Election Commission data around 11 am. It is securing a lead in 220 seats and is likely heading towards a landslide victory. Celebrations have already begun at the BJP’s Mumbai office.

Shiv Sena MP Shrikant Shinde said, “As we had expected, we have got very good numbers. I thank all the voters who stood behind Mahayuti and gave this landslide victory…”

Shiv Sena leader Naresh Mhaske said, “Maharashtra of government has expressed its faith in Mahayuti. The public is seeing what is happening to Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena today. The people have stated that Eknath Shinde is the one who is capable of leading Balasaheb Thackeray’s Shiv Sena…By way of their votes, the public has slapped a slipper on the face of Sanjay Raut. I am a Shiv Sena worker and I think that Eknath Shinde should be the chief minister…”

Early trends as per ECI

As per the initial results, the Mahayuti alliance is leading in 220 seats, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leading in 128 seats, driving the charge in Maharashtra. The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena (SHS) follows closely with 55 seats. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by Maharashtra Deputy CM Ajit Pawar, is leading in 35 seats, while the Rashtriya Yuva Swabhiman Party (RSHYVSWBHM) is leading in 2 seats.

Meanwhile, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is trailing, with a lead in 51 seats. The Indian National Congress (INC), part of the MVA, is leading in 20 seats. The Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) leading in 16 seats, and the Nationalist Congress Party – Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP-SP) is leading in 13 seats. The Samajwadi Party (SP) too is in the lead at 2 seats.

In addition, the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Jan Surajya Shakti (JSS), and Peasants And Workers Party of India (PWPI) are all leading in 2 seats each.

Other minor parties, including Swatantra Bharat Paksha (STBP), Indian Secular Largest Assembly of Maharashtra (DISECL), CPI(M), Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi (BVA), and Rajarshi Shahu Vikas Aghadi (RSVA) are leading in 1 seat each. Additionally, 5 independent candidates (IND) are leading in their respective constituencies.

As the Sena-BJP-NCP celebrate all eyes will now be on who will assume the post of CM of the state.