Business
Primary market scenario post April 2022

The world has been affected by Covid-19 for over 24 months now. However, capital markets used this opportunity and had a fantastic run during the same whether it be secondary markets or for that matter primary markets. A striking feature of primary market offerings during calendar year 2021 was the fact that the bulk of the offerings, as much as roughly 80 per cent was offer for sale. This OFS was dominated by PE investors who took advantage of the markets and sold their stake at unbelievable valuations. This was also the period when tech platform companies and new age companies hit the market. As usual, the market had its fair share of successes and failures.
The driving force behind the listing gains was the oversubscription witnessed across companies barring a handful. This oversubscription came at a cost- the cost of funding the application and this got built into the listing price. This gave a feeling that the issue did well post listing. In reality, most of these companies have lost sharply from their highs and have given up a large part of their gains. Physical events of companies launching their roadshows had stopped and they had become digital with Zoom webinars being the way. This system had its advantages and disadvantages with time to complete being reduced to just one day. Further it gave an unfair advantage to merchant bankers and promoters as conferences were conducted behind an effective censor board in the form of a moderator and tough questions being simply avoided.
An interesting incident was in the Zomato digital event where the company made its entire presentation in US dollars forgetting the basic fact that in an Indian issue, the currency of subscription is Indian Rupees. Fortunately, no other such event has happened thereafter thankfully.
Let us move to April 2022. The scenario has changed completely. There are new regulations imposed by RBI and SEBI. RBI has introduced a ceiling on the amount of money that can be lent by an NBFC against application at an upper cap of Rs 1 crore. This means every HNI can borrow just one crore each. This would mean in simple terms that the HNI portion which has seen oversubscriptions of 200-600 times would just not happen. The method of controlling this lending would be the PAN card. The second thing would be that this oversubscription came at a cost. The cost of funding. When there is no leveraging, there is no cost of funding. This would have a dramatic impact on the unofficial but rampant grey market. Premiums there would crash and the obnoxious returns made on listing would simply vanish. This would put pressure on subscriptions from other categories as well. The day when an IPO for Rs 1,000 crore garnered subscription across categories of Rs 40,000-60,000 would just stop.
SEBI has split the HNI bucket of 15 per cent into two with the first bucket of 5 per cent for application between 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs. The remaining 10 per cent is for applications which are greater than Rs 10 lakhs. The allotment in these categories in case of oversubscription would be on basis of lots like retail. This implies that allotment would be uniform to all applicants of the base lot size which would be Rs 2 lakhs and 10 lakhs as the case maybe on basis of lottery. In case of undersubscription, allotment would be on normal basis where the applicant would get shares on the basis of his subscription.
The other major change is with respect to anchor allocation and lock-in. Half the shares allotted to anchors would be locked for 30 days while the balance half would be locked in for 90 days. This would make anchor investors seek comfort on the pricing of IPO’s and indirectly seek comfort that the issue is reasonably priced so that they do not go under during the mandatory lock-in period.
Let us look at the HNI bucket with an example. For assumption we take a size of the primary offering which could include fresh issue and offer for sale of Rs 1,000 crore. Fifty per cent of the issue would be for QIB’s, 15 per cent for HNI’s and the balance 35 per cent for retail. Of the 50 per cent for QIB’s, 60 per cent would be for anchors. In this example, Rs 300 crore would be for anchors with Rs 150 crore of shares being locked in for the customary 30 days and balance Rs 150 crore for the new period of 90 days. Any anchor would now take a view that his invested price or issue price should not go below the issue price in 90 days. This would give additional comfort to other investors hopefully.
HNI bucket of 5 per cent for Rs 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs would mean Rs 50 crore. This would require 2,500 applications of Rs 2 lakhs to be subscribed on lots. The larger bucket of 10 per cent or Rs 100 crore would require 1,000 applications of Rs 10 lakhs to be subscribed. When the allotment is capped at this system unlike the earlier proportionate, many large applications would be deterred until and unless on the last day just before closing time there is a feeling that the issue may not get subscribed in the HNI category. Then people would look at the issue and make larger applications than 10 lakhs.
In the new scheme of things there would be two major factors which would see a change. The first is subscription levels where three-digit subscription levels in HNI category would be a thing of the past. Second would be as far as premiums are concerned. They would fall significantly as there is no logical cost of interest which could decide the logical premium. The impact of these two factors combined should put pressure on pricing by merchant bankers and promoters.
As an analyst, a person like me would be very happy that management and merchant bankers would now have to justify valuations rather than take the easy way out of suggesting that there is a 50-60 per cent grey market premium. If you feel the price is high, sell in the grey market.
Interesting times ahead for primary markets which will learn to evolve with these changes as well.
Exclusive
Calcutta HC allows NGO to distribute relief material in communal violence-hit Murshidabad

Kolkata, April 17: A single-judge bench of the Calcutta High Court, on Thursday, permitted a non-government organisation (NGO) to visit the communal violence-hit Murshidabad and distribute relief material among the affected people.
While granting permission to the NGO christened ‘Khola Hawa (Open Air)’, which was earlier denied permission by the district administration, the single-judge bench of Justice Amrita Sinha observed that there was no rule that organisations other than government bodies would not have permission to distribute relief materials at any place.
She also observed that the existing law and order problem could not be an excuse for denying permission, since the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) were already posted in Murshidabad.
The NGO approached the bench of Justice Sinha after the Murshidabad district magistrate denied permission for its members to visit the troubled spots in the district to distribute relief there. Parts of Murshidabad district in West Bengal have been on the boil last week after protests over the Waqf (Amendment) Act turned violent.
In the petition, the NGO alleged that while the district administration was allowing different political parties to reach the troubled spots with relief materials, the permission to the organisation was deliberately denied.
The matter came up for hearing on Thursday afternoon. The counsel for the NGO argued that there was no reason for the district magistrate to deny the permission since the state Director General of Police had already claimed that the situation at Murshidabad was currently more or less normal. “The NGO members want to go there to distribute relief items like tarpaulin, food, and medicines to those affected,” the counsel of Khola Hawa argued.
Although the state government opposed the arguments, Justice Sinha finally accepted the argument of the counsel of Khola Hawa and permitted the NGO to visit the troubled spots and distribute relief items there.
However, she maintained that only three members of a relief team should visit any troubled spot at a time for the time being. At the same time, these three team members would have to inform the district magistrate at least 24 hours in advance about their visit. The visiting team members, as per the court order, should also not make any provocative statements during the process of relief distribution that might trigger tension in the area again.
International
Extreme marine heatwaves tripled over past 80 years: Study

London, April 17: The number of days each year that the world’s oceans experience extreme surface heat has tripled over the past 80 years due to global warming, a new study has found.
Researchers found that, on average, the global sea surface saw about 15 days of extreme heat annually in the 1940s, Xinhua news agency reported.
Today that figure has soared to nearly 50 days per year, revealed the study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Global warming is responsible for almost half of the occurrence of marine heatwaves — periods when sea surface temperatures rise well above normal for an extended time.
The study, produced by a team of scientists from the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies, the University of Reading, the International Space Science Institute, and the University of the Balearic Islands, also found that rising global temperatures are making extreme ocean heat events last longer and become more intense.
“Marine heatwaves can devastate underwater ecosystems. Extended periods of unusually warm water can kill coral reefs, destroy kelp forests, and harm seagrass meadows,” said Xiangbo Feng, a co-author of the study at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading.
The impacts of marine heat waves extend beyond the ocean. The researcher warns that increased marine heatwaves could, in return, cause our atmosphere less stable leading to more frequent and powerful tropical storms in some regions.
“As global temperatures continue to rise, marine heatwaves will become even more common and severe, putting increasing pressure on already stressed ocean ecosystems. These increased marine heatwaves could, in return, cause our atmosphere less stable leading to more frequent and powerful tropical storms in some regions,” Feng said
Noting that human activities are fundamentally changing oceans, the study called for urgent climate action to protect marine environments.
Business
US tariff hikes no longer make economic sense: China

Beijing, April 17: A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on Thursday that the United States’ 245 per cent tariff on certain products from China no longer makes economic sense.
It the US continues to play the “tariff numbers game”, it will pay no attention to it, according to the spokesperson, Xinhua news agency reported.
The statement came in the wake of White House’s statement that China faces tariffs of up to 245 per cent due to its retaliatory action.
China now faces up to 245 per cent tariffs on imports to the US as a result of its retaliatory tariffs, according to the White House Fact sheet.
This came after Beijing ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets in response to the earlier US decision to impose 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods.
According to the White House, the US President is open to making a trade deal with China, but Beijing should make the first move.
“More than 75 countries have already reached out to discuss new trade deals. As a result, the individualised higher tariffs are currently paused amid these discussions, except for China, which retaliated,” it said.
The White House also accused Beijing of banning exports to the US of gallium, germanium, antimony, and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications.
There are no winners in a trade conflict and the tussle between China and the US raises the risk of economic and geopolitical fallout, a report by S&P Global Ratings said this week.
Home to sizable manufacturing activities, Asia-Pacific is highly dependent on exports to the U.S. and China for growth. At the same time, Asia-Pacific depends on the US mostly for security.
The region could find itself pushed to take sides or walk a delicate line between the two large economies, the report stated.
To counteract tariffs, Asia-Pacific governments are exploring the formation of regional trade blocs or bilateral trade agreements. These efforts could accelerate, expediting the need to relocate supply sources and production.
China’s economic growth is seeing rising downside risk amid rising trade tensions with the US as its export engine falters from weaker global demand. The country’s domestic growth engine remains subdued, given the lingering real estate crisis, which is dragging down confidence.
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