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Budget’s growth focus to face macro challenges

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The Budget is focused on growth, but will face macro challenges, Japanese brokerage Nomura said in a report.

First, the ability of the government — both central and states — to spend 2.9 per cent of GDP on capex will face execution hurdles. Identification of projects, on-the-ground implementation, coordination with different agencies — all typically lead to a smaller amount being spent than allocated.

Second, if revenues disappoint or other expenses rise (higher subsidies or more allocation towards rural employment, for example), then there is a risk of the capex amount being pruned.

Third, we see other growth challenges. India is currently in the midst of a business cycle recovery. However, we expect India’s growth to decelerate from H2 CY2022 onwards, reflecting weaker consumption demand from low income households (due to scarring effects and high inflation), weaker export growth and continued sub-par private capex due to low capacity utilisation.

Rising oil prices (a negative term of trade effect) and tighter global financial conditions are also growth headwinds.

Hence, if the capex-led push is not fruitful, then the growth slowdown could be material. We currently expect GDP growth of 8.7 per cent y-o-y in FY22 (reduced recently from 9.2 per cent owing to the impact of Omicron.

Nomura said we continue to expect higher inflation and wider current account deficits, largely due to rising commodity prices, although an expansionary budget may also play an incremental role. On inflation, while food prices appear in check, core inflationary pressures are rising across clothing, household goods and services and personal care items.

Firms are passing higher input prices onto consumer prices. Domestic fuel prices are currently on hold, but will likely be adjusted higher after the state elections. We expect services price inflation to also rise as the economy opens.

We expect elevated global commodity prices, high inflation and steady domestic demand to result in higher imports, widening the current account deficit to 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2022, up from a deficit of 1.3 per cent in 2021.

The Budget is unambiguously focused on reviving growth, via higher public capex. Capital expenditure generally results in a higher growth multiplier, so the continued focus on infrastructure spending, including support to states to spend on capex, is important at a time when private capex is sluggish.

The government expects to miss its budgeted fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of GDP for FY22 (year ending March 2022) marginally, with an actual outturn of 6.9 per cent (Figure 1). The sharp rise in receipts of corporate taxes, robust income taxes and strong indirect taxes (in part due to higher fuel excise duties in the first half of the year) have resulted in net tax revenues exceeding budget estimates by Rs 2.2trn (1.0 per cent of GDP). However, contrary to our expectation, the government has revised up its capex commitment for the year by Rs 485bn (0.2 per cent of GDP), though this primarily reflects the government clearing its liabilities of the recently divested Air India. Also, in line with our expectations, revenue expenditure (revex) has been higher by Rs 2.4trn (1.0 per cent of GDP), reflecting the second wave support package, food and fertiliser subsidies, export incentives and extra spending by some departments. Finally, the disinvestment target has now been calibrated lower by Rs 970bn (0.4 per cent of GDP).

Business

Is Market Correction Over? Sensex Soars By Over 1,900 Points; Nifty Gains Over 2%

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The marquee indices closed with monumental gains as Dalal Street recovered with some requisite optimism ahead of the Maharashtra state election results on November 23.

Indian Markets Close With Bumper Gains

On Friday, November 22, the marquee indices closed with monumental gains, as Dalal Street recovered with some requisite optimism ahead of the Maharashtra state election results on November 23.

The BSE Sensex closed for the day’s proceeding with some big numbers. The oldest index in Asia closed with gains of a colossal 1961.32 points or 2.54 per cent. This took the overall value of the index to 79,117.11.

The situation was equally euphoric at the National Stock Exchange. The NSE Nifty closed at 23,830.90, having gained 481.00 points or 2.06 per cent.

In addition, the Nifty Bank index also made gains of over 1.5 per cent. Thebanking index closed with gains of 858.50 points or 1.70 per cent, pushing it beyond the coveted 50K mark, propelling it to 51,231.40.

Gainers and Losers

The days went exceedingly well for most listed companies, the day closed with a green wall. At the BSE end, SBI, Titan and TCS were the biggest gainers with all of the said companies gaining over 4 per cent.

ITC, L&T, Infosys and Reliance also made major gains in excess of 3 per cent by the end of day.

This comes after days, nearly a two-week long period of decline, that marred the market, pushing Sensex below its 80K mark, and Nifty, much below its 25K mark.

It remains to be seen, whether the much discussed market correction that brought about bringing the indices to their actual value, has come to an end or whether sea of red will continue in the time to come.

In addition, it also remains to be seen, whether, the election results for teh critical state of Maharahstra would have an effect on the market, in the next trading week.

Asian Markets

The Asian markets also flourished green with great momentum, as these indices closed on a positive note as well.

Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.68 per cent or 257.68 points, moving towards the 40K mark, closing at 38,283.85.

Another Tokyo-based index, TOPIX, closed at 2,696.53, gaining by 0.51 per cent or 13.72 points.

As we move to China, the story was a lot different, as, contrary to the Indian and Japanese markets, the Chinese markets closed in red.

Hang Seng closed with significant losses in its numbers, closing with a massive fall of 1.89 per cent or 371.14 points, at 19,229.97.

The loss was even greater in mainland China, as the Shanghai-based SSE Composite also ended the day’s trade with deep cuts. The index crumbled by 3.06 per cent or 103.21 points of its value and closed at 3,267.19.

South Korea’s KOSPI was in tandem with other market as closed with some good news. KOSPI closed with an increase of 0.83 per cent or 20.61 points, closing for the day at 2,501.24.

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Business

‘Innocent Unless And Until Proven Guilty’: Adani Group Issues Statement In The US Bribery Indictment; Denies Charges, Calls Them Baseless

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The Adani Group, which has been at the eye of the storm since the beginning of the new day, has issued a statement in the US Indictment matter.

Adani Denies Charges

The company, in a statement procured by the conglomerate-owned IANS, said, “The allegations made by the US Department of Justice and the US Securities and Exchange Commission against directors of Adani Green are baseless and denied.”

Furthermore, the statement asserted its stance and added, “As stated by the US Department of Justice itself, “the charges in the indictment are allegations and the defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.” All possible legal recourse will be sought.”

Committed to Highest Standards

The Adani Group further added that it has always upheld and is steadfastly committed to maintaining the highest standards of governance, transparency and regulatory compliance across all jurisdictions of its operations.

US Court Indicts Adani and Co.

The company, in an attempt to assuage stakeholders, partners and employees, said that the company is a law-abiding organisation, fully compliant with all laws.

The storm was kicked off by a post from short-seller group Hindenburg, which shared the news of the US Federal Court’s indictment of Gautam Adani and seven others associated with the company.

Billionaire Gautam Adani has been charged by US prosecutors for allegedly being part of a scheme to pay over USD 250 million (about Rs 2,100 crore) bribe to Indian officials in exchange of favourable terms for solar power contracts.

The press release from the US court elaborated on the allegations and claimed that the company and its leadership had indulged in mass bribery activity, in which the company bribed Indian officials to bag a contract for its Adani Green Energy company.

This in turn led to misleading American investors and global financial investors.

The court reportedly also issued an arrest warrant against Gautam Adani and seven others.

Adani Shares Tank

In the aftermath of the report, Adani Group company shares tanked at Dalal Street. With Adani Enterprises shares hitting the lower circuit, losing 20 per cent of their value. The situation was the same with the other Adani stocks, including Adani Green Energy, which is in the middle of the new storm.

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Business

Bharat NCAP Awards 5-Star Crash Test Rating to Mahindra Thar Roxx

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The Mahindra Thar Roxx has earned a prestigious 5-star rating in Bharat NCAP’s latest crash tests, reflecting its commitment to safety. Recently evaluated under stringent testing, the SUV excelled with a 31.09 out of 32 score for adult occupant protection and 45 out of 49 for child safety.

Tested in its AX5L and MX3 variants, the Mahindra Thar Roxx delivered notable results, scoring 15.09 out of 16 in the Frontal Offset test and a perfect 16 out of 16 in the Side Impact test. The assessment revealed strong protection for most areas, with adequate ratings for the driver’s chest and lower legs.

The Mahindra Thar Roxx has received high marks for child occupant safety, scoring 24 points in Bharat NCAP tests, along with 12 points for CRS (Child Restraint System) installation and a Vehicle Assessment Score of 9. This top-tier safety rating applies to all Thar Roxx units produced from November 2024 onward, underscoring Mahindra’s dedication to enhancing safety features across its SUV range. Additionally, Mahindra’s XUV400 and 3XO models have also achieved 5-star safety ratings, further emphasizing the automaker’s commitment to robust safety standards.

The Mahindra Thar Roxx offers two interior themes – Classic Ivory and a new Dark Mocha Brown. Comfort and convenience are prioritizing with ventilated seats, leatherette upholstery, a digital driver display, a larger 10.25-inch touchscreen, a high-quality Harmon Kardon sound system, a panoramic sunroof, rear AC vents, wireless connectivity for Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, and a six-way adjustable driver’s seat, combining practicality with luxury.

Mahindra Thar 5-door comes packed with safety and interior upgrades to enhance its appeal. On the safety side, it includes essentials like six airbags, three-point seatbelts for all occupants, hill control features, electronic stability control, and a seatbelt reminder. Advanced driver-assist features, such as autonomous emergency braking, adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping support, lane departure alerts, and a 360-degree camera system with blind spot monitoring, add an extra layer of protection.

Mahindra Thar Roxx offers two engine choices: a 2.0-litre turbo-petrol and a 2.2-litre diesel. The petrol engine comes in two setups—150 bhp and 330 Nm of torque for the manual, and 174 bhp with 380 Nm for the automatic. The diesel option is available only with four-wheel drive.

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