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Divestment: Budget FY23 likely to see higher target; more focus on NMP

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Indias Union Budget FY23 is likely to set a higher divestment target for the coming fiscal with more focus being set on the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP).

Notably, the conclusion of the Air India divestment as well as upcoming listing of LIC is expected to prompt the Centre for a robust divestment target for FY23.

Besides, the possible shifting of BPCL divestment to next fiscal and an enhanced pipeline of core and non-core assets under the NMP could significantly ramp up the revenue stream.

“Divestment is likely to be kept robust at Rs 800 billion including the likely divestment of BPCL in FY23 and more assets coming under the NMP,” said Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global.

“We will not be totally be surprised if the government puts an ambitious target in FY23 again. We assume LIC IPO will be done in FY22 itself.”

In FY22, the Centre had kept a disinvestment target of Rs 1.75 trillion.

However, the target might be missed unless the LIC IPO gets completed in the next two months.

“We expect the government to continue keeping a high target for disinvestment and asset monetisation. If the LIC IPO gets postponed, then the budgeted disinvestment target will clearly be higher for the next fiscal,” said Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuite Ratings & Research.

“However, it is unlikely that the divestment of public sector banks will reach a logical conclusion by FY23. There is a risk of a continuing gap between budgetary targets in disinvestment and NMP plans and actual achievements over the next 1-2 years.”

M. Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings, said: “In all probability, actual disinvestment proceeds will fall short of the budget estimate of Rs 1.75 trillion.

“If the LIC disinvestment goes through, the shortfall will be less. The BPCL sale will surely spillover into the next year. Depending on the volume of spillover, the capital expenditure will be impacted.”

The Union Budget 2021-22 laid a lot of emphasis on ‘Asset Monetisation’ as a means to raise innovative and alternative financing for infrastructure and included a number of key announcements.

In particular, the NMP targets to raise Rs 6 lakh crore through asset monetisation of Central government, over a four-year period, from FY22 to FY25.

“Thirst on disinvestment will continue, not only this year but also coming years,” said Soumyajit Niyogi, Associate Director, India Ratings and Research.

“The focus is expected to be more on monetisation of various asset, than only on disinvestment.”

In addition, Isha Chaudhary, Director, Crisil Research said: “National monetisation plan announced earlier in the year too is yet to actively take off with the target outlined for FY22 likely to slip, the focus should be on meeting the targets set out over the duration of the plan viz. till fiscal 2025.

“With assets already identified under the NMP, the government and the bureaucracy should focus on meeting the divestment agenda set out in the NMP rather adding more assets. Rather prioritisation of projects to achieve targets should be the prime focus.”

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Indian stock market ends in bullish tone over hopes of renewed FII inflows

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Mumbai, Dec 13: Indian equity benchmarks made marginal losses during the week amid sustained FII outflows and uncertainty surrounding the US-India trade negotiations.

However, the market ended the week in a bullish tone with Nifty surging 0.57 per cent on the last trading day after the US Federal Reserve announced a 25-bps rate cut.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex dipped 0.36 and 0.17 per cent during the week to close at 26,046 and 85,267, respectively.

Indian equities opened the week on a subdued note, amid continued rupee depreciation and negative global cues due to rising Japanese bond yields.

The US Fed rate cut later in the week eased liquidity concerns and fuelled hopes of renewed FII inflows. With supportive central bank policies, steady domestic investments, and optimism over trade progress despite unclear timelines, benchmarks closed the week on a strong note.

India’s year-on-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was estimated at 0.71 per cent for November this year which was marginally higher than the 0.25 per cent in October, according to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics.

Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 down 0.51 per cent and 0.67 per cent, respectively, in a week.

Sectoral performance was mixed, with IT under pressure while PSU banks, real estate and consumer durables witnessed selective buying.

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates, said that Nifty’s weekly chart shows buying interest at lower levels.

Nifty has 26,200 and 26,325 as stiff resistance levels while 25,700 will act as support zone, he added.

Analysts said that markets will likely remain positive in near future but sensitive to rupee stability, FII flow trends, trade agreement clarity, and cues from major central banks abroad.

Amidst risks from currency fluctuations and global trade uncertainties, improving earnings visibility and liquidity support provide a constructive backdrop and downside protection, they added.

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Business

Maharashtra on path to becoming GCC hub: CM Fadnavis

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Nagpur, Dec 12: Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Friday announced that a crucial milestone has been achieved in the journey to establish Maharashtra as a GCC (Global Capability Centre) Hub.

He said that the Brookfield company is set to build Asia’s largest Global Capability Centre (GCC) in Mumbai, spanning approximately 2 million square feet.

The Chief Minister said that this project is expected to generate a total of 45,000 jobs, including 15,000 direct and 30,000 indirect jobs.

He stated that due to the state’s talent pool, infrastructure, and industry-friendly environment, Maharashtra is becoming a preferred destination for Global Capability Centres.

“The new GCC policy will lead to large-scale skill-based job creation and economic growth,” he added.

He also mentioned that FedEx, a global leader in the logistics sector, is keen to invest in its GCC and other operations near the Mumbai-Navi Mumbai airport area, said the government release.

The Chief Minister informed that he requested Microsoft to consider Maharashtra for their investments, noting that their largest existing investment is already in the state.

He expressed confidence that Microsoft will make a major investment in the future and take the lead in making Maharashtra an Artificial Intelligence (AI) centre.

The Chief Minister said that Maharashtra’s model for crime control with the help of Artificial Intelligence is a guiding light for the entire country.

Chief Minister Fadnavis confirmed that Microsoft has assured priority to Maharashtra in their largest ever investment in India, amounting to $17 billion.

He further highlighted the ‘Marble’ platform developed by Maharashtra, which helps detect cyber and financial crimes in just 24 hours instead of 3-4 months.

He said that this has resulted in saving people’s money and has expedited the process of tracking criminals.

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India’s CPI inflation estimated at 0.71 pc for Nov, food inflation stays in negative zone

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New Delhi, Dec 12: India’s year-on-year inflation rate, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was estimated at 0.71 per cent for November this year which was marginally higher than the 0.25 per cent in October, according to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics on Friday.

Food inflation stayed in the negative zone during November at (-) 3.91 per cent as prices of food goods fell compared to the same month of the previous year. Food inflation has now stayed negative for the sixth month in a row, easing the burden on household budgets.

However, the increase in headline inflation during November 2025 is mainly attributed to an increase in the inflation of vegetables, eggs, meat and fish, spices, and fuels compared to October, according to an official statement.

The retail inflation had eased further in October, after having plummeted to an over 8-year low of 1.54 per cent in September, as prices of food items and goods across sectors fell during the month.

The declining trend in food prices continued in October as food inflation fell deeper in the negative zone at (-) 5.02 per cent from (-) 2.28 per cent in September.

However, the overall outlook for inflation remains benign.

The RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) last week slashed its forecast for India’s inflation rate for the financial year 2025-26 to 2 per cent from 2.6 per cent predicted in October due to the sharp decline in food prices and the GST rate cuts playing out.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced a reduction in the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier, as inflation had come down and the monetary policy could focus on boosting growth.

Malhotra said that the surge in economic growth to 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year and the sharp decline in inflation to 1.7 per cent had provided a rare “Goldilocks period” for the Indian economy.

“The MPC noted that headline inflation has eased significantly and is likely to be softer than the earlier projections, primarily on account of the exceptionally benign food prices. Reflecting these favourable conditions, the projections for average headline inflation in 2025-26 and Q1:2026-27 have been further revised downwards.”

Malhotra also pointed out that core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) remained largely contained in September-October, despite continued price pressures exerted by precious metals. Excluding gold, core inflation moderated to 2.6 per cent in October. Overall, the decline in inflation has become more generalised, he added.

The RBI Governor observed that food supply prospects have improved on the back of higher kharif production, healthy rabi sowing, adequate reservoir levels and conducive soil moisture. Barring some metals, international commodity prices are likely to moderate going forward.

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